Rate hike odds climb past 60% as August inflation heats up

Developing story update (September 11, 2026, 01:35 UTC):

A fresh read on underlying inflation adds weight to the hawkish setup. Based on our sources, core PCE is now tracking at roughly 0.26% on a monthly basis, rounding to about 0.3%. That is a sticky reading, and it lines up with the rise in September rate hike odds rather than easing it.

On the energy side, the crude backdrop has firmed further: Brent is now holding above $101 a barrel, up from the earlier print just over $100. Persistently higher energy costs feed the same inflation story and give the higher timeframe distribution thesis more room to play out. Rate probabilities and prediction market pricing are unchanged from our first report.

What to watch now: Whether the firmer core PCE track and $101 Brent push September hike odds higher into the FOMC decision.

Developing story update (September 11, 2026, 00:54 UTC):

A fresh inflationary signal has entered the picture: oil has topped $100 a barrel. For traders this matters because higher energy costs feed directly into headline inflation, which strengthens the case for the tighter Fed path already reflected in the elevated rate-hike odds ahead of the September 16 meeting.

The rate-hike probabilities themselves are broadly unchanged, still sitting in the high-60s percent range, and Bitcoin and Ethereum remain in a muted, slightly negative drift. The read stays the same: a tightening macro backdrop keeps pressure on risk assets, and higher oil only reinforces that bias.

What to watch now: Whether sustained oil above $100 lifts the August inflation prints and pushes hike odds higher into the September 16 FOMC.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 23:52 UTC):

Our sources now indicate that Polymarket, a prediction market, is pricing the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September at 61% to 64%. This provides an additional perspective on market expectations, alongside the CME Group’s FedWatch tool which maintains a 69.8% probability.

Further supporting the inflation narrative, a senior U.S. economist from Bank of America estimates core Personal Consumption Expenditures, a key inflation gauge, is tracking at a 0.26% monthly rate, which would round up to 0.3%. This specific projection adds another data point to the ongoing discussion about persistent inflationary pressures.

These new data points reinforce the market’s expectation of a September rate hike, aligning with our existing bearish bias. Traders should continue to monitor these macro signals as they provide fundamental justification for smart money distribution in risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

What to watch now: Monitor upcoming inflation data releases and further shifts in Fed rate hike probabilities across various platforms.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 23:31 UTC):

Our latest check confirms Ethereum’s recent price action, showing a 0.67769% decrease over the last 24 hours and a 0.5% decrease in the last hour. This provides more granular detail on the ongoing crypto market response to macro pressures.

Additionally, oil prices continue to demonstrate strength, now holding above $101 a barrel, reinforcing the inflationary environment that is influencing central bank policy.

What to watch now: Monitor for further confirmation of oil price stability above $101 and continued ETH price action in line with macro trends.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 23:10 UTC):

The European Central Bank has raised interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling a continued global trend of monetary tightening. This action reinforces the broader macroeconomic environment of reduced liquidity, which typically acts as a headwind for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

While CME Group’s FedWatch tool still indicates a 69.8% probability for a 25-basis-point Fed hike in September, new data from Polymarket’s ‘Fed Decision in September?’ event shows a 61% probability. This divergence in market-implied probabilities suggests differing sentiment among participants regarding the Fed’s next move.

What to watch now: Traders should monitor how the divergence in Fed hike probabilities between CME and Polymarket evolves, alongside further global central bank actions.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 22:49 UTC):

Our sources confirm that oil prices continue to strengthen, with Brent Oil now holding above $101 a barrel. This specific increase in a key commodity price reinforces the inflationary pressures driving the elevated probability of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

This development further solidifies our bearish macro outlook for risk assets. Smart money continues to leverage these headwinds, suggesting a continued distribution phase in crypto markets.

What to watch now: Monitor further developments in commodity prices and their impact on upcoming inflation data.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 22:29 UTC):

Bitcoin and Ethereum have registered minor short-term dips, with BTC down 0.2% and ETH down 0.1% in the past hour. This indicates continued pressure on crypto assets as the market absorbs hawkish macro signals.

The probability of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike in September remains at 69.8%, following firmer August PPI data and oil prices holding above $100 a barrel. The European Central Bank’s recent 25 basis point hike further underscores the global tightening trend.

Our analysis suggests smart money continues its distribution, with these incremental price movements reflecting a gradual adjustment to evolving macro expectations. Traders should maintain vigilance for potential further downside as liquidity tightens.

What to watch now: Continue to monitor short-term price action for further signs of distribution amidst consistent hawkish macro signals.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 22:08 UTC):

The probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September, as tracked by Polymarket, has edged up to 64%. This indicates a slight strengthening in market expectations for further tightening.

Broader market sentiment also reflects this pressure, with the S&P 500 recording a 0.58% decline. This macro backdrop continues to support a cautious stance for digital assets.

Ethereum’s price is now confirmed at $2459.18, showing minor movement in line with the overall market’s reaction to tightening liquidity.

What to watch now: Continue to monitor Fed commentary and upcoming inflation data for further shifts in rate hike probabilities.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 21:47 UTC):

Our latest check reveals that market participants on Polymarket are now pricing in a 61% probability for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September, reflecting a 33% increase following the Producer Price Index reassessment. This provides an additional perspective on the market’s expectation for the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Furthermore, it is now confirmed that the August PPI data, which triggered the initial rise in rate hike odds, came in firmer than expected. This detail reinforces the narrative of persistent inflationary pressures, strengthening the case for continued hawkishness from the Federal Reserve.

These developments underscore the prevailing bearish sentiment for risk assets, as smart money continues to position for potential further downside. Traders should remain vigilant for upcoming economic indicators and Fed communications.

What to watch now: Traders should monitor upcoming inflation data and Fed commentary for further clues on September's rate decision.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 21:26 UTC):

Our latest market check indicates a shift in Bitcointalk sentiment from ‘none’ to ‘mixed’. This suggests some retail engagement is emerging, though without a clear directional bias.

Despite this minor sentiment shift, our core read remains consistent. The market continues to price in hawkish Fed policy, with smart money likely distributing into any remaining retail interest. We maintain our expectation of further downside to new local lows before any significant long-term bullish reversal.

What to watch now: Monitor retail sentiment for further shifts, alongside Fed commentary on inflation and rate path.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 21:05 UTC):

Oil prices have now topped $100 a barrel. This development adds further pressure to inflation expectations, reinforcing the underlying economic conditions that are driving the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.

The probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike at the September FOMC meeting remains high at 69.8%, consistent with our earlier report. This continued expectation of tightening liquidity aligns with our bearish outlook for risk assets.

Traders should note that this additional inflationary pressure could further solidify the Fed’s resolve, maintaining an environment unfavorable for significant crypto upside in the short term.

What to watch now: Monitor oil price movements and their potential impact on future inflation reports and Fed commentary.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 20:44 UTC):

Our sources indicate a new market perspective on the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike. Polymarket now shows a 61% probability for a 25-basis-point increase, with over $20 million in trading volume, providing an additional data point to the previously reported CME FedWatch tool’s 69.8% probability.

This new information suggests a slightly more divided market sentiment regarding the certainty of the September hike, even as the overall expectation remains elevated. Traders should consider this broader view of market probabilities when assessing risk assets.

What to watch now: Monitor both CME FedWatch and Polymarket probabilities for further shifts in September Fed rate hike expectations.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 20:23 UTC):

The European Central Bank has announced a 25 basis point rate hike. This development reinforces the global trend of monetary tightening, adding to the macro pressures on risk assets.

This action by a major central bank underscores the persistent inflation concerns that are driving policy decisions worldwide. Our sources indicate this further tightens global liquidity conditions, which typically impacts crypto markets.

While the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September remains at 69.8%, the ECB’s move suggests a coordinated global effort to combat inflation. Traders should continue to watch for further central bank communications and their implications for market liquidity.

What to watch now: Monitor further central bank statements and upcoming inflation data for continued tightening signals.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 19:42 UTC):

Fresh data reveals a new detail in the inflation landscape, with the 12-month change for upstream, stage 1 intermediate demand reaching 11.3%. This specific figure adds to the picture of persistent price pressures that continue to influence Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.

While the CME FedWatch tool maintains a 69.8% probability for a 25-basis-point hike, prediction markets like Polymarket show a slightly lower 64% chance, indicating some divergence in market sentiment. Additionally, Brent oil prices are now consistently holding above $101, reinforcing the inflationary environment.

What to watch now: Traders should monitor the upcoming FOMC meeting for the official rate decision and any forward guidance, alongside continued tracking of global energy prices.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 18:39 UTC):

The global tightening environment has been reinforced as the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked its rates by 25 basis points, signaling a continued hawkish stance from major central banks. This action aligns with the persistent inflation pressures observed globally.

While CME Group’s FedWatch tool still indicates a 69.8% probability of a 25-basis-point hike by the Federal Reserve, new data from Polymarket shows a 64% chance, providing a slightly different perspective on market expectations. Both indicators, however, point to a high likelihood of a September rate increase.

Oil prices continue to climb, with Brent Crude now confirmed above $101 a barrel, adding further inflationary pressure to the global economy. Traders should remain vigilant as these macro factors continue to influence liquidity and risk asset performance.

What to watch now: Traders should monitor further central bank actions and evolving market probabilities for the Fed's September meeting, alongside energy price movements.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 17:36 UTC):

The setup has hardened since we published. The rate-hike case is no longer resting on a projected CPI figure: hotter-than-expected August producer price data has now printed, with core final demand up 0.3% on the month and 4.7% over the year, and upstream pressure building as stage 1 intermediate demand rose 1.4% and its 12-month change reached 11.3%. That is real inflation in the pipeline, not a forecast.

Market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the September 16 FOMC have climbed to about 69.8%, up from 61.2% earlier in the week. On top of that, oil has pushed above $100 a barrel, adding a fresh inflationary tailwind that makes a hawkish path more probable, not less.

For traders the read is unchanged in direction but stronger in conviction: BTC and ETH are absorbing a clearly negative macro catalyst with only shallow moves and no conviction buying, the kind of weak bid that tends to precede a flush toward new local lows rather than a bounce.

What to watch now: Whether BTC holds current levels into the September 16 FOMC or breaks to new local lows as tighter-liquidity odds firm.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 16:54 UTC):

Two developments have landed since publication. The European Central Bank has now confirmed a 25 basis point rate hike, adding a second major central bank tightening move to the macro backdrop and reinforcing the broader risk-off tone weighing on crypto. This is a completed action rather than a projection, unlike the Fed odds that remain probability driven.

On the data side, the August Producer Price Index is now forecast to rise 0.4% month over month, matching the CPI forecast and pointing to persistent input cost pressure ahead of the FOMC meeting. Traders should watch whether hot PPI and CPI prints together push Fed hike odds higher, which would likely extend the current downside pressure. Prediction market pricing for a September Fed hike has softened at one venue toward the low 50s, so the market is not fully committed either way.

What to watch now: Whether hot August CPI and PPI prints together lift Fed hike odds and trigger another leg lower in BTC.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 16:13 UTC):

The inflation picture for this story has widened. Alongside the August Consumer Price Index projected at 0.4%, consensus now expects the August Producer Price Index to gain 0.4% as well. A matching hot read on both consumer and producer prices would reinforce the case for a September rate hike rather than soften it.

Rate hike odds for the September meeting remain elevated, with prediction markets clustering in a roughly 57% to 64% range and broader consensus still above 60% based on our sources. Bitcoin near $76,940 and Ethereum near $2,436 are both down about 2% over 24 hours, so the price backdrop stays consistent with the tighter liquidity narrative and a probable bias toward further downside if the data confirms.

What to watch now: Whether the August PPI print lands at or above the 0.4% expectation and hardens rate hike odds further.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 15:11 UTC):

The inflation picture behind the September rate call has widened. Alongside the projected 0.4% August CPI reading, the August Producer Price Index is now expected to rise 0.4% on the month, based on our sources. Two hot inflation prints landing together strengthens the case that the Fed keeps tightening rather than easing.

For traders the read is unchanged but firmer: prediction markets still lean toward a 25 basis point hike in September, and a matching PPI print reduces the odds of a dovish surprise. BTC and ETH remain modestly lower on the day, consistent with a market absorbing tighter liquidity rather than reacting sharply.

What to watch now: Watch whether the actual August PPI confirms the 0.4% projection; a hotter print would harden hike odds and pressure risk assets.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 14:51 UTC):

Update: The European Central Bank has confirmed a 25 basis point rate hike. This is an actual policy move rather than a forecast, and it hardens the global tightening backdrop that markets are already pricing around the anticipated Federal Reserve decision.

For traders this widens the tightening story beyond the US. With another major central bank draining liquidity, the probability skew stays tilted toward risk-off conditions on higher timeframes, and short-term bounces in majors are more likely to be sold into than to mark a durable reversal.

What to watch now: Whether confirmed ECB tightening pressures crypto liquidity alongside the pending Fed decision and August CPI print.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 14:30 UTC):

The inflation picture behind this move has widened. Beyond the August CPI already tracking a 0.4% monthly rise, consensus now also sees August producer prices climbing 0.4% for the month, based on our sources. Two inflation gauges pointing the same direction gives the higher-for-longer narrative more weight into the September meeting.

Rate-hike expectations for the September decision remain elevated, holding above 60% probability. For traders this keeps the macro backdrop tilted the same way it was at publication: firmer inflation prints reduce the odds of near-term easing, and that pressure has tended to cap risk appetite. BTC and ETH are roughly flat versus our first read, both still down around 2 to 3% on the day.

What to watch now: Whether the actual CPI and PPI releases confirm the 0.4% forecasts or come in softer, which would ease rate-hike pressure.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 13:48 UTC):

The tightening picture is no longer just a Fed story. Based on our sources, prediction markets now price roughly 84% odds of a 25 basis point rate hike from the Bank of Japan at its upcoming meeting, adding a second major central bank to the global liquidity-drain narrative that has been weighing on crypto.

For traders, a firmer yen policy path can pressure the carry trade and tighten global liquidity further, which historically probabilistically aligns with the same downside bias we flagged around the higher Fed hike odds and the 0.4% August CPI projection. This is a risk factor to respect, not a certainty. BTC and ETH remain in modest 24 hour declines with the broader distribution structure intact.

What to watch now: Whether the BOJ meeting confirms the ~84% priced hike and how the yen carry trade reacts.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 12:22 UTC):

The macro tightening picture just widened beyond the Fed. Based on our sources, the August Producer Price Index is due today, September 10, with consensus looking for a 0.4% monthly gain, the same pace as the projected CPI print. A hot PPI would reinforce the case for the September hike that markets are already leaning toward.

There is now a second central bank in the frame. Prediction markets are assigning roughly 84% odds to a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike at its upcoming meeting. A more hawkish BOJ removes one of the cheapest sources of global liquidity, which historically tightens conditions for risk assets, crypto included.

The read is unchanged and, if anything, firmer: this is a macro headwind that gives professional traders continued cover to distribute into mixed retail sentiment. BTC is holding near the $77,700 and $77,000 levels we are watching, and a decisive break lower likely opens further downside probability rather than a clean bounce.

What to watch now: Today's August PPI print and BOJ meeting odds: a hot PPI plus confirmed BOJ tightening raises the probability of a break below $77,000.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 11:18 UTC):

A further inflation signal has entered the frame: the August Producer Price Index is now forecast to rise 0.4% for the month, matching the projected pace of August consumer prices. For traders, wholesale and consumer inflation pointing the same direction tightens the case that price pressure is not fading, which keeps the odds of a September rate move firm.

The market backdrop is otherwise little changed since publication. Odds for a 25 basis point September hike remain above 60% on CME FedWatch and in the 53 to 57% range on prediction markets, and Bitcoin and Ethereum are broadly flat, with BTC near $77,859 and ETH near $2,460. The setup still leans toward continued macro pressure on risk assets rather than relief.

What to watch now: Whether the actual August PPI and CPI prints confirm the 0.4% forecasts and harden September hike odds.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 10:36 UTC):

The macro picture around this story has firmed up. Alongside the projected 0.4% August CPI print, producer prices (PPI) for August are now also expected to rise 0.4% month-over-month, based on our sources. Two hot inflation reads pointing the same direction reinforce the case for a more hawkish Fed rather than easing.

There is now a fixed catalyst on the calendar: the FOMC decision lands September 15 to 16. Odds of a 25 bps move remain above 60%. For traders, that concentrates event risk into a known window, so expect thinner conviction and sharper reactions into those dates. Nothing here has moved BTC or ETH materially yet, both are still drifting lower on the day, consistent with our higher timeframe bearish bias.

What to watch now: The August CPI and PPI prints ahead of the September 15 to 16 FOMC decision.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 09:54 UTC):

The macro calendar around this setup is now firmer. August Producer Price Index data is due September 10 with consensus looking for a 0.4% monthly gain, followed by the August Consumer Price Index reading on September 11. The FOMC decision then lands September 15 to 16, so traders face three sequential catalysts inside roughly a week.

The odds picture is broadly unchanged, sitting in the low-to-mid 60% range across the venues we track for a 25 basis point September move. CPI projections still point to 0.4% for August against 0.1% in July, so the incremental news is timing rather than a shift in the base case. A hotter PPI or CPI print would likely reinforce the hawkish read and add downside probability for higher timeframes; a softer print is the main scenario that could relieve pressure.

What to watch now: August PPI on Sep 10 and CPI on Sep 11 as the first read into the Sep 15 to 16 FOMC.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 09:12 UTC):

The macro calendar just tightened. August Producer Price Index data lands on September 10 with consensus looking for a 0.4% monthly gain, a second hot inflation read stacking on top of the 0.4% August CPI projection. A print at or above consensus would reinforce the higher rate path the market is already leaning toward and keep pressure on speculative liquidity.

This is no longer a Fed-only story. Based on our sources, prediction markets now assign roughly 84% odds to a 25 basis point Bank of Japan hike at its current meeting. Two major central banks tightening into the same window points to a thinner global liquidity backdrop, which historically weighs on risk assets. Traders should treat this as a probabilities-driven setup, not a certainty, and size accordingly.

Price action confirms the grind rather than a fresh catalyst: Bitcoin poked above $81,000 on September 3 before slipping back under $79,000 by September 8, and it sits near $78,000 now. That pattern is consistent with distribution into fading demand rather than panic, leaving room for a further probe toward local lows if the data runs hot.

What to watch now: Whether the August PPI on September 10 confirms the hot CPI read and how BTC holds the $78,000 area into a likely dual Fed and BOJ tightening window.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 08:25 UTC):

A second central bank has entered the frame. Based on our sources, prediction markets are now pricing roughly 84% odds of a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike, layering onto the already elevated expectation of a September Federal Reserve move. Two tightening tracks at once means the macro liquidity backdrop is likely to stay restrictive rather than loosen.

For traders this reinforces, rather than reverses, the higher timeframe bias. A hawkish BOJ tends to firm the yen and pressure the carry trades that have helped fund risk assets, so the probability skew leans toward continued downside pressure and a possible flush into new local lows. Bitcoin and Ethereum are little changed on the session, so nothing has priced this in yet.

What to watch now: Whether a confirmed BOJ hike firms the yen and pressures risk assets into new local lows.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 07:16 UTC):

The macro picture just widened beyond the Fed. Prediction markets are now pricing roughly 84% odds of a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike, layering a second major central bank onto the tightening story that already had September Fed hike odds sitting above 60% with August CPI projected at 0.4%.

For traders this matters because a hawkish BOJ tends to firm up the yen and pressure the classic yen-funded carry trade, a dynamic that has coincided with sharp risk-off moves in crypto before. With two central banks leaning hawkish at once, the odds of a broad liquidity squeeze into risk assets look higher than when this story first ran.

Price action is drifting lower in step: BTC near $78,197 and ETH near $2,474, both off roughly 1.4% to 1.5% on the day. It is a modest move, but it is consistent with a market bracing for sustained tightening rather than one leaning into a dip.

What to watch now: Watch the yen and BOJ hike pricing alongside the Fed; a synchronized hawkish shift raises carry-unwind and liquidity-squeeze risk for crypto.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 06:11 UTC):

A fresh detail has firmed up around the August inflation print. Economists now forecast the year-over-year inflation rate to ease slightly to 3.3% from 3.4%, even as the month-over-month projection holds at 0.4% versus 0.1% in July. That combination, a soft cooling in the annual pace alongside a firmer monthly reading, keeps the rate-path debate live rather than settling it.

For traders the read is unchanged: odds of a 25 basis point move in September remain above 60%, and this is the kind of mixed signal that tends to feed distribution rather than a clean directional catalyst. Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to drift modestly lower on the day, consistent with the higher-timeframe bearish bias, and a marginally cooler annual number is unlikely on its own to reverse that. Watch the actual CPI release, not the forecast, for the move that matters.

What to watch now: Whether the actual August CPI confirms the 3.3% year-over-year forecast or surprises hotter.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 05:07 UTC):

Ahead of the same inflation print, two more forecasts have firmed up based on our sources. Consensus now looks for August Producer Price Index to rise 0.4% on the month, matching the projected pace of consumer prices and pointing to sticky pipeline pressure rather than easing.

At the same time, the headline year-over-year inflation rate is expected to slow modestly to 3.3% from 3.4%. That mix, firm monthly gains alongside a softer annual figure, keeps the September rate-hike setup intact and gives smart money little reason to change the higher-timeframe bearish read.

What to watch now: Whether the August PPI and CPI prints land at or above the 0.4% forecasts, which would harden hike odds.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 04:45 UTC):

Update: the tightening picture has widened beyond the Fed. Based on our sources, prediction markets now price roughly 84% odds of a 25-basis-point Bank of Japan rate hike, on top of the greater than 60% odds already sitting on a September Fed move. Two major central banks leaning toward hikes at once points to a broader squeeze on global liquidity, not a US-only story.

For traders this reinforces the higher-timeframe caution. A firmer yen policy path can pull capital back toward the carry unwind and away from risk assets, which fits the muted BTC and ETH reaction we are still seeing near $78.3k and $2,477. Nothing here promises a specific move, but the odds now favor tighter conditions on two fronts rather than one.

What to watch now: Whether a confirmed BOJ hike lands alongside the Fed and compounds the liquidity drain on risk assets.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 03:41 UTC):

The hawkish case has firmed with two fresh inputs since we published. The August jobs report came in stronger than expected, and the projected 0.4% August headline CPI print is now being attributed largely to gas price spikes linked to the lingering Iran conflict. The rate-hike odds themselves are unchanged, with September still seen above 60% on CME FedWatch and near 57% on prediction venues.

The decision window is now dated: the FOMC meets September 15-16, with the August CPI release the key event traders are positioning around before then. A hot print would likely reinforce the tightening narrative and keep pressure on risk assets.

Bitcoin and Ethereum remain nearly flat versus our published levels, with BTC around $78,340 and ETH near $2,473. The muted reaction continues to fit our read of professional distribution into thinning retail interest rather than fresh demand stepping in.

What to watch now: The August CPI release ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC, and whether a hot gas-driven print pressures BTC toward new local lows.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 03:17 UTC):

Two fresh inflation reference points are now on the board for the same story. August Producer Price Index is projected to rise 0.4% month over month, with that print due September 10, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to hold steady at 0.2% month over month. Both sit alongside the previously flagged 0.4% headline CPI projection for August.

For traders, a hot PPI on September 10 would reinforce the hawkish rate path already being priced, while a soft core reading could challenge the higher-for-longer narrative. Probabilities for a September rate hike remain elevated, and BTC and ETH are holding roughly flat over 24 hours rather than selling off, which is consistent with our view that positioning is already leaning defensive.

What to watch now: The August PPI print due September 10: a hot number likely hardens the hawkish path, a soft core reading could ease it.

Developing story update (September 10, 2026, 02:30 UTC):

The setup ahead of the September meeting has firmed. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is now expected to hold steady at 0.2% month-over-month for August, sitting alongside the headline 0.4% forecast. A steady core print keeps the hawkish read intact rather than softening it.

The near 60% odds of a 25 basis point hike are now being tied in part to a stronger-than-expected August employment report, based on our sources. A firmer labor market gives the Fed more room to tighten, which reinforces the higher timeframe bearish bias and the risk of one more flush toward new local lows before any durable reversal.

What to watch now: Whether the actual August core CPI comes in above the 0.2% steady expectation, which would harden hike odds further.