In short: Simon says Bitcoin is testing a reclaim above the ascending trend line. And he stays bullish on the daily and 4-hour toward a $79,000 maximum, expecting a touch of $69,000 first. On the weekly he stays bearish, still calling for $44,000. He avoids new longs now as long squeeze risk builds.
Can bulls hold the trendline breakout?
Bitcoin is retesting the ascending trend line it just broke above, and the ParadiseTeam wants a 4-hour close above it before trusting the reclaim. Simon says a close below signals a likely fake out. He watches spot volume on Binance for a higher high alongside the price.
He then wants a retest on falling volume to show the bears are weak, ideally with a bullish divergence on lower time frames. Even a clean reclaim would not tempt him into a swing long here, since resistance sits just above and the reward stays limited. You can follow the setup through the Bitcoin analysis video hub.
Where does Simon see Bitcoin heading next?
On the daily Simon stays bullish with a maximum target of $79,000, and he expects price to touch $69,000 first. Bitcoin was reaccumulated by the team around $61,000, which he plans to redistribute into that move higher.
The best swing opportunity, he says, comes on the secondary wave down toward the $61,000 to $59,000 support zone. That is where a tighter invalidation and stronger risk reward could line up. This is why his focus stays on capital preservation and sizing rather than chasing the current candle.
Why is Simon avoiding new longs right now?
Open interest is rising while sell walls absorb the buying, and the cumulative volume delta shows aggressive buying that leaves longs crowded. Simon points to a climbing long squeeze probability and reminds viewers that every time it neared 20, price reversed.
He adds that summer trading activity is thin, liquidity is low, and the fear and greed index has sat sideways with no extremes since July. Those conditions, tracked on the crypto funding board, make holding fresh longs riskier here.
What would invalidate the bullish setup?
The 4-hour bias stays bullish until Bitcoin breaks below $62,500, the bottom of the fourth wave. A reclaim below that level, Simon says, would push probabilities hard toward the $59,000 to $61,000 zone.
On the daily, a MACD bearish cross is a warning sign, but he treats it as one piece of the puzzle. He does not expect it to break below the $57,000 prior low, though it may signal the secondary wave starting earlier than expected.
Why is the weekly still bearish?
On the weekly, Simon stays bearish and is still calling for $44,000. He reads the structure as an ending diagonal finishing its final fifth wave, with a secondary wave possibly lifting price toward $79,000 first.
He expects to see $44,000 before any push toward $169,000, and compares the potential macro bottom to 2022. In his view a fresh bull trend could start around the middle of 2027 and run for roughly three years.
Frequently asked questions
What is Simon’s Bitcoin target in this video?
On the daily and 4-hour time frames Simon stays bullish with a maximum target of $79,000. He expects price to touch $69,000 first before any deeper pullback. His weekly view stays bearish, where he is still calling for $44,000 before a much later push toward $169,000.
Is Simon buying Bitcoin at these levels?
No. Simon says entering longs now is too risky for him because longs are crowded and long squeeze probability is building. He prefers to wait for the secondary wave down toward the $59,000 to $61,000 support zone, where he sees a tighter invalidation and better risk reward on confirmations.
What invalidates Simon’s bullish 4-hour view?
A break and reclaim below $62,500, the bottom of the fourth wave, invalidates the near-term bullish structure. Simon says that would push probabilities strongly toward the $59,000 to $61,000 support zone instead of the expected move up to $69,000. So he watches that level closely on the 4-hour.
Why does long squeeze risk matter here?
Simon notes open interest is rising and sell walls are absorbing buyers, leaving longs crowded. He says every time long squeeze probability approached 20, price reversed. With thin summer liquidity and a sideways fear and greed index, he treats that reading as a reason to be careful holding longs.
What confirms a successful trendline reclaim?
Simon wants a 4-hour candle to close above the ascending trend line, followed by a bullish retest on declining volume. He also looks for a bullish divergence on lower time frames showing weak bears. A close below the line instead points to a likely fake out.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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