In short: Simon says Bitcoin is testing a reclaim above the ascending trend line. And he stays bullish on the daily and 4-hour toward a $79,000 maximum, expecting a touch of $69,000 first. On the weekly he stays bearish, still calling for $44,000. He avoids new longs now as long squeeze risk builds.
Can bulls hold the trendline breakout?
Bitcoin is retesting the ascending trend line it just broke above, and the ParadiseTeam wants a 4-hour close above it before trusting the reclaim. Simon says a close below signals a likely fake out. He watches spot volume on Binance for a higher high alongside the price.
He then wants a retest on falling volume to show the bears are weak, ideally with a bullish divergence on lower time frames. Even a clean reclaim would not tempt him into a swing long here, since resistance sits just above and the reward stays limited. You can follow the setup through the Bitcoin analysis video hub.
Where does Simon see Bitcoin heading next?
On the daily Simon stays bullish with a maximum target of $79,000, and he expects price to touch $69,000 first. Bitcoin was reaccumulated by the team around $61,000, which he plans to redistribute into that move higher.
The best swing opportunity, he says, comes on the secondary wave down toward the $61,000 to $59,000 support zone. That is where a tighter invalidation and stronger risk reward could line up. This is why his focus stays on capital preservation and sizing rather than chasing the current candle.
Why is Simon avoiding new longs right now?
Open interest is rising while sell walls absorb the buying, and the cumulative volume delta shows aggressive buying that leaves longs crowded. Simon points to a climbing long squeeze probability and reminds viewers that every time it neared 20, price reversed.
He adds that summer trading activity is thin, liquidity is low, and the fear and greed index has sat sideways with no extremes since July. Those conditions, tracked on the crypto funding board, make holding fresh longs riskier here.
What would invalidate the bullish setup?
The 4-hour bias stays bullish until Bitcoin breaks below $62,500, the bottom of the fourth wave. A reclaim below that level, Simon says, would push probabilities hard toward the $59,000 to $61,000 zone.
On the daily, a MACD bearish cross is a warning sign, but he treats it as one piece of the puzzle. He does not expect it to break below the $57,000 prior low, though it may signal the secondary wave starting earlier than expected.
Why is the weekly still bearish?
On the weekly, Simon stays bearish and is still calling for $44,000. He reads the structure as an ending diagonal finishing its final fifth wave, with a secondary wave possibly lifting price toward $79,000 first.
He expects to see $44,000 before any push toward $169,000, and compares the potential macro bottom to 2022. In his view a fresh bull trend could start around the middle of 2027 and run for roughly three years.
Frequently asked questions
What is Simon’s Bitcoin target in this video?
On the daily and 4-hour time frames Simon stays bullish with a maximum target of $79,000. He expects price to touch $69,000 first before any deeper pullback. His weekly view stays bearish, where he is still calling for $44,000 before a much later push toward $169,000.
Is Simon buying Bitcoin at these levels?
No. Simon says entering longs now is too risky for him because longs are crowded and long squeeze probability is building. He prefers to wait for the secondary wave down toward the $59,000 to $61,000 support zone, where he sees a tighter invalidation and better risk reward on confirmations.
What invalidates Simon’s bullish 4-hour view?
A break and reclaim below $62,500, the bottom of the fourth wave, invalidates the near-term bullish structure. Simon says that would push probabilities strongly toward the $59,000 to $61,000 support zone instead of the expected move up to $69,000. So he watches that level closely on the 4-hour.
Why does long squeeze risk matter here?
Simon notes open interest is rising and sell walls are absorbing buyers, leaving longs crowded. He says every time long squeeze probability approached 20, price reversed. With thin summer liquidity and a sideways fear and greed index, he treats that reading as a reason to be careful holding longs.
What confirms a successful trendline reclaim?
Simon wants a 4-hour candle to close above the ascending trend line, followed by a bullish retest on declining volume. He also looks for a bullish divergence on lower time frames showing weak bears. A close below the line instead points to a likely fake out.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned. It is what was said, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Bitcoin is right now breaking above this ascending trend line resistance. Can we have a successful reclaim [music] and continue to trend higher? Let's analyze the probabilities. >> [music] >> My Crypto Paradise. >> Hello ladies and gentlemen of Paradise Comp. This is Ammon from My Crypto Paradise.
Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. So, previously we stated that on the daily time frame we are bullish and with the highest probability we will go towards $79,000.
That still stays, ladies and gentlemen. With Paradise VIPs we have been reaccumulating Bitcoin around $61,000 and I still believe that there is much higher probability to go towards $79,000 before we will start reversing to the downside. Again, on the 4-hour time frame in the last video we also said that we are with the highest probability see a reversal from bearish to the bullish side, right?
And we will see a reversal and push to the upside because we have had a lot of confluences at this resistance. We also took a look at this final pattern. I've told you that we might create a final fifth wave lower. So, we have created 1 2 3.
Then we have been creating the fourth and I've told you with the highest probability we will see one more tick lower to complete the ABC pattern, the zigzag. And as we can see on the 4-hour time frame we have done that. We have got that tick lower.
So, we have completed the 1 2 3 4 and the final fifth wave. And right now we are nicely reversing from that support. What's going to be important to discuss in this video is if we can reclaim this resistance into a support and continue to trend higher.
I can tell you that I'm still bullish overall on 4-hour time frame and I do believe that before we will start pushing towards 61 to 59,000 dollars support zone on the medium time frame. There is still a higher probability that we will see and touch a $69,000 first.
There is multiple reasons for that. We will come back to it. Let's take a look on the weekly time frame. On the weekly time frame, I'm still bearish. You know that since basically Bitcoin finished the major bull trend at $109,000. I'm calling for $44,000.
Then we have pushed one more wave three upside, but we already understood that this is just a corrective multi-wave structure. So again, at $121,000, I have told you that Bitcoin will start pushing to the downside in this pattern, right? Because once we have created this B wave higher, we already understood this pattern is called expanded flat, where the C wave actually subdivided itself into five small waves.
We have nicely organized ourselves in terms of this prediction. And right now you can see that we are finalizing the final fifth wave, which should have of ending diagonal. Ending diagonal, let's not talk about this kind of jargon. Let's have a look how that with the highest probability going to look like.
So ending diagonal subdivided itself into five small waves. So very cleanly, one have been finished with the highest probability. Second might take us towards the $79,000. That's what we are doing right now on the daily time frame. And then we will have the third wave with the highest probability, the fourth wave, and there is still very high likelihood that we will see the $44,000 before we can start pushing towards $169,000.
We were going deeply inside of this weekly time frame, explaining why this is still a high probability of price action unfolding exactly like this. So if you have not seen the video that I have recorded for you on Saturday, last Saturday, definitely watch it because we are going deep into this and we are taking a look also at the behind the scenes indicator and charts that we are watching to understand once
this exchange of the hands from the panic sellers, from the ones that needs to capitulate into the hands of the market makers that are waiting for this opportunity is going to be finished, and what will really tell us that okay, the macro bottom can be created the same way it happened in 2022, and we can call again the nice bull trend.
And that in this time that will happen, I do believe in the mid of 2027 will take us towards 169,000 dollars, and will take again couple of years around three. So, let's take a look right now at this section right here. Let's zoom in on daily time frame.
So, on the daily time frame, I'm still bullish. I do still believe that this structure is bullish hence forth with the highest probability before we start reversing to the downside, we will touch 79,000 dollars. We can finish it lower, right? This structure of a C wave, but my maximum target is going to be 79,000 dollars, right?
So, I will redistribute the Bitcoin we've been reaccumulating with private signal VIPs at around that 61,000 dollars. Together with that, if I will put on some swing plus long positions, there will be an opportunity to do so with a great risk reward since as we know, this is a C wave motive wave structure.
It should unfold itself into five sub waves, right? So, we know that the highest probability, basically the best opportunity, the best opportunity time to get into a nice swing plus position where you can also put a great risk reward on where you can risk very little amount of your capital in order to gain much more.
The best opportunity will be during the secondary wave, and the secondary wave should take us towards 61 to 59,000 dollars. So, definitely once we start crashing lower, look, I will explain to you why on the 4-hour timeframe I don't still believe, all right, at this moment that the first wave is created.
But, from a swing trading perspective, it doesn't matter, actually, because if we will start pushing higher, all right, if you will really start pushing that first motive wave structure, I'm talking about this one, towards that $69,000, basically, I will be interested in shorting here, since we know how many confluences we have at this level, right?
And we also know that the invalidation will be able to be placed quite tight to the entry price. So, it will be a great probability and high risk reward trade setup. So, I will be interested in shorting right here. However, if you will not be able to get that high, then I will just be waiting for the price to push lower towards this buying zone, $61,000, upon confirmations, and that's important, upon
confirmations, if I will see there's enough probabilities for a reversal, I will be interested in creating a nice long setup. And if I will be pulling the trigger, you will know about it in Party Som VIP, where we are sharing with you our personal trade setups with exact entry and exit targets.
So, right now, on the daily timeframe, basically, I'm just focusing on seeing how the secondary wave's going to unfold itself. It's if it's going to be an XEL structure, this is going to be a buying area for me. Again, it's not going to be a panic area where I will be screaming with everybody, we are going lower, we are going lower, we are going lower, since I'm mean reversion trader, right?
So, daily for me still bullish. Yes, we can understand that there is this bearish divergence on the MACD histogram, and we are already having a bearish cross. Definitely, a warning sign. Take a look what happened previously when we have got a bearish cross.
But, also, understand that the market is not that easy that when you see a bearish cross somewhere, it's immediately going to create a drop. For example, right here, you can see cleanly that we have got a bearish cross and we have dropped only a little and then we have continued to go a little bit further to the upside before the next bearish cross.
So, bearish cross is only one piece of the puzzle, all right? And as I always tell you, what if you don't want to be caught in a fake out, if we fake out, for example, of breaking some level or fake out of being caught in some bearish cross pattern, definitely if you have enough other confluences, the bearish cross is just a final piece of your puzzle in your trading tactic and based
on that, it might be the only last points, probability points, needed for you at that time to create a trade, obviously, right? So, however, if we take only the MACD histogram and we don't take a look at nothing else, if you want to have more probability points from MACD, you should be waiting for a reclaim as well.
So, we have a cross and then we want to also have a retest of that, basically the blue line is crossing below the red line and we want to have a retest that the red line is really working not anymore as a support, but as a resistance, right?
And that's going to add up to the probability points. Then if you see again also like a downtick like this on one daily candle, it will create something like this. It will again increase the probabilities that the trend is going to be reversing, all right?
So, ladies and gentlemen, right now, you can see right here, for example, the reclaim didn't happen, right? So, it was it wasn't strong sign that we might be reversing from the MACD, all right? There were other signs that been actually strong, but just looking at the MACD, we can see that it didn't happen.
Yeah, back in on 4th of May, 2026, the reclaim didn't happen. All right? So, if you want to get more probability points from McD, you should be waiting for this. But, definitely, this bearish cross is just giving us a bearish warning signal at this moment, okay?
So, again, I don't believe that this bearish cross will signal the thing that we are going to break below $57,000, which is the previous low, but it might signal, you know, earlier that we are already starting the secondary wave, okay? So, definitely, I'm taking a look at how we are upfolding during the next days.
But, on the daily timeframe, I'm still bullish because the market structure is still bullish. So, let's have a look on the 4-hour timeframe right now. We understand that the first motive wave structure from that impulse that might take us towards $79,000 needs to subdivide itself into five small waves, right?
And after we get that, we can understand that the first wave is finished, and we can start the secondary wave. So, right now, we have got so far, based on our count, 1 2 3, then fourth wave, which was a skewed triangle, and right now, this could have been a fifth wave, but this price action is not really that clean that I would be able to say with 100% probability this was
a five wave structure, five subwaves inside it. It can be 1 2 3 4 5, but there are few trend lines that we are not respecting, as you know, from the previous videos. So, I'm not that I'm not that clean that this was the final fifth wave, okay?
So, if this wasn't the final fifth wave, what is my invalidation for this bullish market structure? That What is the invalidation that we won't get towards $69,000 before reversing towards that $60,000 is the break below that E wave. We know that the E wave, that's the bottom of the fourth wave at around $62,500.
If the price will start breaking and reclaiming this level, the probabilities for me will start to be extreme that we'll start pushing towards this support zone. So, I will be I will be really then paying a lot of attention how we are unfolding the price action in order for me to be able to understand if we have enough confirmations in order for us be able to create some nice swing plus set
up towards that $79,000 as our last target. So, right now, what we need to understand in order for us not to be caught in possible fakeout like this is watching the volume, right? So, you're I always tell you basically when we break in some important level, be it a resistance or a support, I don't want to see much divergences with the price action versus the volume, okay?
So, when the price action is creating a higher high, I want to see a higher high on the volume as well. But, I'm watching the volume actually on spot exchange. So, let's put our focus on the spot exchange Binance Bitcoin USDT on Binance.
So, what can we see right here? We have created on the price action higher high. As we can see, pretty much on the volume we have created higher high as well, which is great. But, right now we need to understand that pretty much around like this, there is the trend line.
I'm talking about this trend line right here. We are right now doing the bearish retest. So, first of all, the 4-hour candle is going to close in 1 hour 39 minutes. If we will close back below this ascending trend line, this is with the highest probability of fakeout.
If we will close above with the 4-hour candle above this ascending trend line, then I will add up some probabilities that this might be a successful reclaim, but and the continuation in the same breakout direction is increasing. However, that's not a 100% clean reclaim.
I want to see then a little bit price action to the upside and then bullish retest. Basically, retesting the previous resistance into a support. So, I want to see a rising volume on the breakout, which we kind of which we kind of got.
We got the volume above moving average volume trend line, so this is nice. But, I also want to see I also want to see a retest on declining volume. All right, that will tell me, all right, the participation of the bears is a small, the bears are weak.
Together with that, if I get on lower time frames some bullish divergence with that, for example, like the momentum of bears is extreme, but they are failing to push below this below this line and we are having a divergence on the price, it's again going to increase the probabilities nicely that I will understand this is successful reclaim and we might be continuing to the upside.
Even if we get these kind of signs, to be honest to be absolutely honest, I will not be much interested into creating some swing plus position at the 4-hour time frame because we already know that there is like immediate resistance above us. So, the risk reward will be limited, right?
It will not be very good. What I will be interested in if we are really creating the final fifth wave in the ending diagonal fashion, which makes us subdivide itself into five smaller waves, yeah? Like this. I will be interested if I will see the price action unfolding nicely and I will get enough confirmations right here.
In short term, at around $69,000, okay? And then, I will be interested again creating some nice bullish trade setup at around $61,000 So, ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated again in the next videos. What we need to understand also right now is on the price action to the upside, we are actually increasing open interest, but the buying pressure is being absorbed by these sell walls that are above us, all
right? So, the price action is creating higher highs, so is the open interest. We can see a lot of futures are driving this movement to the upside. Actually, on the cumulative volume delta, we can see that we have been very aggressive. So, people are smashing the buy button, all right?
And that is making the longs crowded, which is increasing the long squeeze probability. And we already know that as long Basically, because right now we are It's summer going on. Summer is going on. So, a lot of traders are taking vacation. A lot of people are not trading due to the global economical situation.
Already, the trading activity on futures markets and in crypto in general is at all-time low. Already, all right? So, all of these together, we need to understand, okay? Because anything that is going to 20 on the long squeeze probability is already putting us in a danger.
We need to be already careful about being in a long position. Since we understand that since July, all right? We are creating just sideways movements on the fear and greed index. We are not going to the extremes of 80 or 20 for a full month almost already, okay?
So, basically, the market is sideways. There is not much volatility going on because there is lack of liquidity right now. So, the price cannot break some important levels. So, we are just doing these small movements, okay? So, based on that, we need to understand that as soon as we get to 20 on the long squeeze probability on our funding rates, we already need to be careful.
So, that's another reason why I'm not really interested in long positions right here because the longs are getting crowded and that's increasing the longs with probability. You know that from previous videos every time we got close to 20, then the price started to reverse.
All right? Then the price started to reverse. So we can see on Bitcoin, they're not paying that much of premium just yet, but you understand that longs are right now paying shorts and the fundings are positive and we the longs are getting crowded and on the Fear and Greed Index, we can see no extremes at all.
Okay? But that just gives us the kind of understanding that not much activity trading activity is going on in general and since we understand that, we also understand that if we will see some big upticks in open interest, the people that are trading right now in the market, they are putting a lot of pressure already.
All right? So seems like the people that are trading at the market are right now already getting over-leveraged on the long side again, which is just making the long crowded and more dangerous to be in a long positions. So I would be careful to keep holding some long position 500 some long position until we can have a nice successful reclaim of this ascending trend line.
If we will get that, the probabilities will increase that indeed we are still in that bullish market structure and we'll start trending higher, ladies and gentlemen. So from 4-hour time frame, I'm still bullish until we can break below the $62,500. I'm still more bullish, all right?
And I still believe that there is going to be a push towards that $69,000, but you can understand that probably if you have not been doing something right here, some long positions, getting in right now is not really a smart idea. Okay? So it's not really a smart idea because it's too risky for me personally at least.
So ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated again on Saturdays. You know, I'm recording for you every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. Trade safe. Trade with a professional trading strategy. Trade with a professional trading tactics. Focus on protecting your capital over trying to think about the outcomes you will have from some successful trade.
Think risk first, always, because that will make you to focus on the process. If you have a process that has an edge over the long run, you will be successful. And I wish you to be successful. is also why we are doing so much free stuff for you.
We are having the MCP free university. We are sharing with you our free analysis. We are sharing our methodology with you and everything in order to make the crypto space much less emotional and much more focused on professional trading. So, thank you so much for watching and I will see you again on Saturday.
Cheers. >> [music] >> Clear eyes. Work done. No rush. No rush. No dread. >> [music] >> Right time for snap. Clean setup. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. >> [music] >> Clean setup.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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