Bitcoin and crypto expected move, live
The expected move is the range the options market has priced for the next move: a plus or minus one sigma band around price. We draw that band live, then we grade our own homework, showing how often price has actually closed inside it at the horizon versus the textbook 68 percent.
Connecting…
Measured, our own record
…%
of the time price closed inside the band
Textbook, a normal distribution
68%
is what a plus or minus one sigma band should contain
The variance premium
…
the band held more than the textbook says
Measured over the reconstructed history, per coin and horizon.
The expected move band, struck at the daily close
The reading is still building.
Options price a move of …
Walk the cone the record, one band at a time
Step back to any past day and watch that day’s band drawn forward, with the price that actually followed traced through it.
Drag the slider, or tap any marker on the chart, to walk a past band.
The band is the options-implied one sigma move scaled to the horizon, struck at the last daily close (00:00 UTC). The implied leg is DVOL, read first-hand from Deribit. Values are estimates.
The receipts every band, graded
Each band we struck, and whether price closed inside it or broke out, oldest resolved bands rolling off the bottom. Reconstructed history is labelled.
| Struck | Band | Close at horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading the record… | |||
PRO Paradiser members see the full logged history and the 24 hour band. See ParadiseFamilyVIP →
When bands looked like this before, how often they broke descriptive, not a probability
Measuring how often, when the variance premium looked like it does now, price went on to close outside the band…
What we will and will not put a number on
We will happily tell you how often the band has held. That is a measured fact over thousands of past bands, and it is the whole point of this page: in crypto the one sigma band has contained price far more than the textbook 68 percent, because options are usually priced richer than the market moves. That number is real and we print it with its sample size and dates.
What we will not do is dress up a guess as a probability. We tested whether the variance premium could tell us the odds that any given band breaks. That conditional edge did not hold up in the block of history we kept completely untouched, so we do not print a Band-Break Probability. We show you the band, the record, the receipts and our own honest test, and we let you read it.
The expected move, defined
Expected move
The expected move is the size of the price move the options market has priced for a given horizon. It is calculated from implied volatility and is usually drawn as a band around the current price. It describes how big a move is priced, not which way price will go.
Plus or minus one sigma band
A one sigma band is the expected move drawn one standard deviation above and below price. Under a normal distribution price should close inside a plus or minus one sigma band about 68 percent of the time; in crypto it usually holds more often, because implied volatility runs above realized.
Containment rate
The containment rate is the share of expired bands where price closed inside the band. Comparing the measured containment rate against the textbook 68 percent is how you see, and can audit, the persistent variance premium in crypto.
Band break
A band break is when price closes outside the expected-move band at the horizon end. Breaks are where short volatility positions come under pressure and re-hedging can accelerate a move. This page logs every band and marks each one inside or outside.
The band is what options priced. The regime is whether the calm is real. The map is where it breaks.
A narrow band in a compressed volatility regime, with leverage building on one side, is the kind of setup that resolves with a move. These reads are context, not forecasts.
For the ParadiseTeam, the expected move is one of the layers behind every decision we make, and every trade we share inside ParadiseFamilyVIP. Seats stay deliberately limited.
Check seat availability →How to read the expected move
Four ideas behind the picture above.
The band is a range, not a target
The expected move tells you how far options think price can travel by the horizon, up or down. It says nothing about direction. A wide band means the market is pricing a big move; a narrow band means it is pricing calm.
Inside more often than the textbook
A plus or minus one sigma band should hold about 68 percent of the time in theory. In crypto it holds more, because option sellers charge a premium over how much the market actually moves. That gap is the variance premium, and it is measurable.
Breaks are where hedging accelerates
When price closes outside the band, positions that were short volatility come under pressure and have to re-hedge, which can push the move further. That is the forced flow behind a band break.
We grade every band
A report card is only honest if it is complete. We log every band we strike and mark it inside or outside when it expires, so the containment number you see is the same file we use to check ourselves.