Bitcoin Breaks $79K: Next Support at $77,700

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Bitcoin is breaking below our key [music] $79,000 level. What is the next support? Let's analyze [music] my cryptoiseise. Hello ladies and gentlemen. This is Smon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Tuesday and that means that you're watching the first video of this week.

In this video, we will go through multiple time frames. We will discuss Bitcoin and let's start with daily time frame. You know that after we have hit $79,000, we turned bearish on Bitcoin on the high time frame. We were bullish since $61,000. After we have pushed towards that magical number $79,000, you know that I have turned bearish on Bitcoin on the daily time frame and since then we are waiting for the

Cwave to be fully finished. Okay. And then with the highest probability we predict that we will create a new local low. That means that with the highest probability we will break below that $58,000. Ladies and gentlemen, right now what we also understand about weekly time frame even though I don't want to go into too much detail on the weekly because we were spending a lot of time on the weekly time frame

in the previous videos. So just what I want to remind you here is that I am still bearish. You know that since Bitcoin touched this $121,000, we are expecting the five moves to the downside in an opposite trend. We have turned bearish on the weekly time frame year ago and something and because we were bearish already right here and then again right here.

This was another great distribution opportunity right here because the major trend, the major bullish trend was already finished at $190,000. And here because this was just a corrective Bwave before the Cwave that with the highest probability will take us towards $44,000. We do expect that for a very long time and I have still not changed my bias on the weekly time frame.

I'm still treating all of those corrections, upward corrections, those bullish corrections as shortening opportunity. All right, as distribution opportunity. So you know that with Paris VIPs for example we have been accumulating Bitcoin at around $61,000 then after we have hit $79,000 I cannot exactly tell you what we have done right because that's inside info but you probably understand that we are no longer holding that accumulated Bitcoin from that $61,000 right so

you know that I'm waiting to reaccumulate aggressively the things we have sold at around $19,000 and around $121,000 at this exchange of the hands zone. Right? I will not be going into too much detail about this because we have been already talking about it a lot in the previous videos.

But let me just tell you that I'm still bearish on the weekly time frame. I still do believe that we are creating the ending diagonal that will look something like this. Right now we are with probability creating the secondary wave and the third wave of that ending diagonal will take us below the previous low of that $58,000.

Yeah. And then there's very high chance that we will hit that $44,000 before we will start pushing towards the new alltime high that I do believe will be at $169,000. And you know that from my analysis, the bull market will begin at mid of 2027 where we also predict that the global economy will finally start to get better and uh the money will start flowing nicely again.

All right, so it should be confluenced. But the thing is that I'm still bearish on the weekly time frame at this moment. All right. So let's take a look at the secondary wave of the ending diagonal. Let's zoom in ladies and gentlemen into this section.

So let's shift our focus on the daily right now. So you know that on the daily we are creating this pattern that is called expanded flat. Awave is a corrective wave structure. Bwave as well. That means that it's uh subdivides itself into three subwaves or variations of thereof.

Right? That's completed. And right now we are completing the Cwave. The C-wave is different than the Awave and Bwave because it's not a corrective wave structure but a motive wave structure. All right, that means it doesn't subdivide itself into three subwaves or variations of thereof but into five subwaves.

All right, so this was first, this was second and right now we have completed the third and I do believe we have completed already the fourth as well and the fifth. Is it completed? Well, for that we will zoom in into this section.

We will take a look at it on 4hour time frame. Okay, but first let's take a look at the momentum indicator. So, am I still bearish? I mean on the daily time frame. And I can tell you that yes, I am. And I will get even more bearish once we reclaim this moving average trend line from the downside.

Okay, that means I want to see a breakout with rise in volume above the moving average volume trend line retest with decline in volume. That will tell me that the bulls are really weak and the bears are controlling this level nicely and then there will be a high probability of continuation in the opposite direction and a great swing plus shortening opportunities will again appear.

So right now let's take a look also at the volume right here. What we have created as you can see we are having a clear divergence which is supporting the bearish bias. So we are creating higher highs. We have been creating higher highs on the on the daily time frame but the volume is fading.

It's creating lower highs. Right? What does it tell us that it tell us that the participation of pushing the price higher is fading. Right? So it's also we can assume that basically is the price is being right now overbought right there is not much people left to buy because most of the people already bought in right and that is why the participation is fading because right now not only the trading activity

in the market as we understood in the previous video is at almost all-time low right we have been taking a look at the Google trends it's just one of the other indicators that help us to understand what the retail is doing, how is the participation and how is the popularity of crypto trading right now going but uh we have also other indicators that we are watching and we understand that the trading

activity is at alltime low and at this moment we don't see that new people or new money are flowing into the market right so there is not much other people not much new money to be left to buy seems like everybody already did and especially right here at the top but Who bought here at the top?

Well, we have already understood that in the previous video that we have seen that the divergence between open interest and cumulative volume delta, right? So you have been watching the previous videos you know exactly what we were watching and also how is it possible that we have understood that with that probability we will create nice push towards that $79,000 right going through the open interest declining because the borrowed money been actually

offloading and the cumulative volume dela on spot aka the smart money not borrowed money that's the money the people own so that's usually smart money have been accumulating all of that offloading of that average, right? And right now we can see something different is happening.

We can see that the cumulative volume delta that spot is already take a look at this is already almost offloaded, right? Take a look at this. So it's right here. So basically all of this buying pressure as you can see got already offloaded right here in a very short period of time just during this section since like 5 days it has been 5 days without moving the price that much as you

can see we have crashed only by around 5% without moving the price too much the whales that accumulated the bitcoin at the low and a little bit on the upside already distributed everything almost everything as you can see the money that basically accumulated all of that all of that Bitcoin during this price action to the upside right already offloaded everything right here as you can see the cumulative volume delta is already

at the previous start of that rally all right so people the the smart money already offloaded their Bitcoin without moving that price too March which is called distribution. If you are in our free telegram channel the new one where we have started showing you what we have been watching internally with the paradise team.

Paradise team are the company traders of my crypto paradise. You saw that the whales are distributing their Bitcoin, right? So, we have double confirmation cumulative volume delta on the spot. And then also we saw the whales are actually confirming that that the volume is actually coming from the big wallets, right?

And it's coming in big orders. So, that's whale money. So, distribution is happening right here. And usually without moving the price, you understand that somebody smart is actually doing that, right? and which is decreasing the probability that we will break above the previous high of $82,000.

And it's actually increasing the probability of what we are watching on the daily time frame and that we will have a reversal and we will break below the previous low of $58,000. On the momentum indicators, we can see we have already got on the daily time frame a bearish cross.

We have got also the retest. So right now we have a further confirmation that even without bearish divergence, we don't have any bearish divergence. Even without that we understand that the bearish whales are actually right now in control. Same thing happened on the RSI bearish cross retest and on the stoastic RSI both legs looking to the downside.

So bears are in control. That is why opening a long position in my opinion even though we will be again retesting this support at around $77,000 is not really a high probability thing for me to do to look for long positions even though until we can break the previous low right here of that $77,700 which is the next support that I talked about in the intro.

Where is the next support? It's right here and we are right now retesting it until we can break and retest from the downside this support at $77,700. Okay, I still believe that we should create the final fifth wave. All right, the final fifth wave of that hard degree Cwave.

Yeah, the C wave we started from that $58,000 and it will complete the motive wave structure of that Cwave. And until we reclaim the previous low, I mean this high of the of the first wave, there's still much higher probability that we will push one more time to the upside.

But given that we have already tested very important resistance with this high of that $82,000, there's very high probability that the fifth wave is going to be truncated. Okay. So if it's going to be truncated and we will complete the fivewave sequence because fifth wave is a motive wave structure, it will be for me one confirmation of many that I should be looking for a short position.

Another confirmation will be that we'll start creating a five moves to the downside that will tell me okay the bears are already controlling the price action. All right. And then I will be waiting for the secondary wave which is a corrective mode wave pattern.

And this will be my time to enter into high probability and high riskreward swing plus short position. And if you are in similarly VIP you will know about that because with the team we are sharing with you within our trading strategy our trading tactics with clear entry and exit targets.

That means we are sharing with you our personal trade setups. So if I decide to take this swing plus short position, if I will get enough confirmations, you will know about it. Okay, right now however on the 4 time frame, I'm more bullish than bearish to be honest.

Take a look at this. There are multiple reasons why. So not only we are at that support, but also we have not yet completed a fifth wave in my opinion. Right now what we are doing is a fourth wave. Let me explain. So this was the first wave, secondary wave, third wave and right now we are creating the fourth wave with the highest probability.

This is a fourth wave until we can reclaim this high. Yeah, that's $77,700 reclaim from the downside. So until that happens, there is much higher probability that the fifth wave is not yet finished. Well, this is the third wave. This would needs to be a fourth wave and this is a fifth wave.

I've been checking that on five and one minute time frame there is no five subwaves. Okay, in this in this section right here. So there's much higher probability that we are yet to have the fifth wave. However, if we will reclaim this low this support, I will not be stubborn and waiting for the fifth wave and I will just recalculate this as a fifth wave as a five waves to the downside

because this in my opinion is double zigzag. Okay, but I might be wrong. Of course, if we will reclaim this, I will understand that I need to recalculate this sequence as a fifth wave, not as the C-wave of the double zigzag and then I will be waiting for the confirmation of corrective mode wave structure.

All right, if I get it, I will enter into high probability trade short position. And again, if you're in Paris 7 VIP, you will know about my entry. Okay, if I will pull the trigger. But right now, ladies and gentlemen, I'm more bullish on the 4 time frame for multiple reasons.

Take a look at this for example. First of all, the volume if this would be the fivewave thread outside and it would not be a corrective mode wave structure which with the highest probabilities. If it would be like first wave of impulse, it would subdivide itself into five small waves like this.

You know that the first wave usually have uptick in the volume. But take a look at the volume right here. Decline in volume. All right, which is usually visible in corrective mode wave structures, not in impulses. Together with that, we can see that so far we have not break below the previous low on the 4 time frame that was created at $76,300.

But on the MACD indicator you can see on the histogram we have already created lower low. So higher low so far lower low on the MACD histogram. This is a beginning of a possible bullish divergence. It is not confirmed yet because we are still going right.

You can see that on the histogram we have not yet created like high or low and you know that I want to see for confirmations at least three before I can pull a trigger or be confident about it. Right? Together with that I would also need a bullish cross blue line crossing above the red line.

So I have not got it just yet neither. So am I creating a long position right here at the support? No. Right. It would be a low probability trade, but I'm not pulling the trigger into some aggressive short position right here at this price personally neither.

I need to see simply more confirmations. And that's what professional trading is about. Right? So, I'm very bearish on the daily, but I also know that we are reaching the support at that $77,000. Exactly. We might still be formating the fourth wave. Yeah, it might be, for example, a flat.

So more confirmations are needed ladies and gentlemen. And that is why patience and discipline with your trading strategy. All right? And with your trading process before you pull the trigger really making sure that you are entering only in the highest probability trades with the greatest riskreward is the thing that will assure that when you enter a position you can make as much money as possible.

If you are correct and if you are wrong, you will lose as little as money as possible. All right? And then if you will keep on repeating this over and over again, following your process with discipline, that's how the long-term profitability is being created.

Okay? There is no magical indicator that will tell you every trade, every direction of the Bitcoin up and down and every trade is going to be winner. No, it's just process. It's just about process. It's like in a business, right? You need to follow the process of how your business is making money, improve it over time, learn from mistakes, right?

And you can gradually grow your business the same way you can in trading gradually improve your portfolio, right? But it's not steady. It's not also parabolical. It's usually looking like this. You are winning much more during winning streaks than what you are losing during losing streaks.

So then you are flat again. You're losing small, losing small, break even, losing small, bang, winning streak, big winning streak. And it might happen for example only like one month in a year. All right, this winning streak as a professional traders, most of the professional traders read all of the series of market wizards, right?

It's a beautiful series, great books, and every trader there tells you who is focusing on high risk reward trading and high probability trading that most of his money is being made in only 20% of the trades he's taking. And that requires patience and that requires discipline to follow your process even during bad times, right?

Because you trust in your process. you know that you have the back tested data and that allows you to put trust in your system, right? Basically helps you not to pull the trigger even though you know that you might be correct, right? But you know that if you would be repeating that trade 1,000s of times net, you would lose money.

And henceforth as a professional traders before we pull the trigger we always ask ourselves if I would take this trade 1 thousand of times would I make money or would I go bankrupt right and based on that if it's yes you enter and then you take a look at your probability point points probability points and you decide how much to risk per trade and then the kind of balance between knowing thanks

to your skill when to go aggressive and when to be defensive Right? Again, helps you to be long-term profitable because you when you win, you win much more than when you lose. Right? So, ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated next video on Thursday.

You know that I'm recording for you every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. Right now on the 4 time frame, I'm more bullish, all right, than bearish. I don't believe that the fifth wave was yet finished. So, I'm waiting for that. The price action development with D probability will look something like this in my opinion.

But I need to have more confirmations. In my opinion, the fifth wave will be truncated because we have already touched the important level. But it might not be. All right. If it's not going to be the next important resistance is at $84,000. All right.

But right now it seems like it's going to be truncated. And we can take a look for example for the next resistance 0.618. So $79,978 very important resistance on the medium time frame and on the medium time frame we have just touched the important $77,700 support.

Okay. So that also tells you that probably shorting right now right here it's not also really smart idea to do so. So like this ladies and gentlemen with the highest probability watch for this zone. Yeah, resistance at around that $80,000 and $81,000. So that's the resistance.

This is the support. I will keep you updated next video on Thursday. Until then, take care. Trade with a professional trading strategy and stay safe. Cheers. No rush, no [music] drag. Right time, full snap, clean setup. Clean, click. Execute like a pro. That's it.

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