Crypto CVD: spot versus perp aggression
Cumulative volume delta is the running score of who is more aggressive, buyers or sellers. We read it separately for the spot market and for perpetual futures, so you can see whether a move is backed by real cash or by leverage. A read on order flow, not a forecast, and not financial advice.
Do our other reads agree? early fusion preview
A first look at how our reads line up. The full MyCryptoParadise Index, which fuses them into one calibrated score, is in build.
The last month of states
Each block is one day. Warmer blocks are price-up states, cooler blocks are price-down states, grey is between states.
Why there is no calibrated probability number here
Most sites would slap a confident percentage on each order-flow state. We tested whether the twelve states actually predict that a move reverses, out of sample, before we would print a calibrated number. We reconstructed more than five years of BTC and ETH order flow, split spot and perp separately, fit the odds on data the test never saw, and held out the most recent three months untouched.
The states did separate in the in-sample test, but the ordering did not hold up in the untouched hold-out, and the cleanest-looking states were built on too few cases to trust. So, by a rule we wrote down before we looked at the result, this page does not print a calibrated Aggression Reversal Probability. Instead it shows the spot-versus-perp chart, the current state, and the descriptive historical frequencies, labelled as descriptive. A competitor shows you a CVD line. We show you spot versus perp and tell you plainly what we could and could not prove about it.
Spot-led versus perp-led moves
Spot-led
The aggression is coming from the spot market, where buyers post the full cash amount. That money is unlevered, so it cannot be force-liquidated. A move led by spot buying rests on real demand and tends to be stickier.
Perp-led
The aggression is coming from perpetual futures, where the marginal buyer is leveraged. Leverage can be liquidated, so a move built only on perp buying is structurally fragile: if it stalls, that same leverage can be forced back out.
Divergent
Price moved one way while aggressive flow leaned the other, so nobody is clearly driving it. That gap between price and flow is the classic sign of absorption, where a larger resting player quietly takes the other side.
The twelve aggression states
Every combination of price direction, which side of the flow is leading, and whether open interest is building or falling, named in plain English. This is the naming we use across MyCryptoParadise.
Spot-backed advance
price rising · spot buyers lead · open interest building
Unlevered spot buyers lead the move higher and new positions are opening.
Who is exposed Perp shorts leaning against real cash demand.
Spot short cover
price rising · spot buyers lead · open interest falling
Spot buyers lift price while open interest falls, so shorts are buying back.
Who is exposed The last shorts still covering into strength.
Levered chase
price rising · leverage leads · open interest building
Leveraged perp buyers are the marginal aggressor and open interest is building.
Who is exposed Late leveraged longs, who can be forced out if the move stalls.
Levered short cover
price rising · leverage leads · open interest falling
Leveraged shorts buy back as open interest falls.
Who is exposed The remaining shorts covering, a move that tends to self-exhaust.
Absorbed markup
price rising · flow diverges from price · open interest building
Price rises even as aggressive flow leans the other way and open interest builds.
Who is exposed Sellers who spent into a wall while price would not fall.
Hollow bounce
price rising · flow diverges from price · open interest falling
Price drifts up with no committed aggressor and open interest fading.
Who is exposed Anyone chasing a bounce that aggressive flow is not backing.
Spot-led decline
price falling · spot sellers lead · open interest building
Unlevered spot sellers lead price lower and new positions are opening.
Who is exposed Longs on the wrong side of real cash distribution.
Spot capitulation
price falling · spot sellers lead · open interest falling
Spot sellers press price while open interest falls, so longs are exiting.
Who is exposed The last longs still selling out.
Levered short press
price falling · leverage leads · open interest building
Leveraged perp sellers are the marginal aggressor and downside open interest is building.
Who is exposed The fresh leveraged shorts, who can be squeezed if price turns.
Levered long flush
price falling · leverage leads · open interest falling
Leveraged longs are forced out as price and open interest fall together.
Who is exposed The remaining forced longs, a flush that is finite.
Absorbed dip
price falling · flow diverges from price · open interest building
Price falls even as aggressive flow leans the other way and open interest builds.
Who is exposed Shorts pressing into demand that is quietly being accumulated.
Hollow flush
price falling · flow diverges from price · open interest falling
Price bleeds lower with no committed seller and open interest fading.
Who is exposed Anyone shorting a drop that aggressive flow is not backing.
How often each state reversed, by timeframe PRO
PRO Paradisers see the full table: how often every one of the twelve states was followed by the move reversing, for the 4h, daily and weekly horizons, plus the 15m and 1h reads. Become a PRO Paradiser
CVD says who is aggressing. The other tools show the fuel and the crowd.
Open interest shows how much leverage is built up, the liquidation map shows where that leverage gets forced out, and the regime radar names who is driving. Read together with the spot-versus-perp split, they answer who is forced to act, and when.
For the ParadiseTeam, the first question on any move is whether real cash or leverage is behind it. Spot-led and perp-led moves are traded very differently, and that reasoning is shared in full inside ParadiseFamilyVIP. Seats stay deliberately limited.
Check seat availability →How to read the two panes
Two markets, one move.
What CVD is
Every trade has an aggressor who crosses the spread. Cumulative volume delta keeps a running total of aggressive buying minus aggressive selling. When the line rises, buyers are the ones paying up; when it falls, sellers are. It is the footprint of who wanted it more.
Spot versus perp
The top pane is the spot market, where buyers post full cash. The bottom pane is perpetual futures, where buyers are leveraged. Reading them apart tells you whether unlevered money or leverage is behind the move, which is the single most useful thing raw CVD hides.
When they disagree
The interesting moments are when the two panes pull apart. Price rising on perp buying while spot stays flat is a move running on leverage. Spot buying while perp fades is real accumulation. The gap between the panes is the read.
Open interest closes the loop
We combine the two CVD legs with open interest and price into one of twelve named states. Open interest tells you whether the aggressive side is opening new risk or closing it, which is what separates a fresh push from an exit.