Smart Whale Buys $86M – Is $79K Next?

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There is a smart crypto well with a positive trading streak history that's just [music] bought $86 million worth of Bitcoin from Galaxy digital. Does this well believe that Bitcoin can pump towards $79,000? And what is the probability of such a move? [music] Let's analyze.

>> My crypto paradise. >> Hello ladies and gentlemen, this is Prescott. This is Simon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. In this video, we will go through weekly, daily, 4-hour, and we will glance at 1-hour time frame as well because something very important is happening right here.

But let me begin with weekly time frame. You know that we are waiting for these five moves to be completed. Five moves from around $121,000 towards $44,000. So far, we have created a low at $57,800, ladies and gentlemen. So we are short of taking that $44,000 few thousands, right?

So I still believe that before we can start pumping towards the new all-time high $169,000, we will crash towards that $44,000. Henceforth, on the weekly time frame, I'm still bearish and I do believe that we will create an ending diagonal pattern that will look like this.

The price action should look like this. That will take us towards that $44,000. Then this will be the exchange of the hands. The traders that were not able to be managing their risk well, they will be capitulating, selling in loss, finally realizing their losses that they are holding right now.

And the smart money will reaccumulate that. Same thing happened in every macro bottom, as you know. And then we will start to be able to start pushing to the upside since the macro bottom will be created. So weekly time frame still bearish, but what about daily time frame?

On the daily time frame, you know that we expect since since $61,000 that we will push towards that $79,000, right? This video was recorded almost more than 1 month ago, actually, all right? So, we still believe that $79,000 is going to be hit.

We were 1 month plus some days ago at $61,000. So far, you can see the price action is is extremely slow. We are at $65,000 at this moment, and nothing has changed, okay? So, the market structure is still bullish. That is why we've probably some VIPs we have been reaccumulating some of the Bitcoin that we have been distributing back in 2025 and around that $121,000.

And after the year 2025, we have reaccumulated something at that $61,000 again, since we do believe that this might be not only this was a great buying opportunity, right? But right now, I will actually the position that I have created at $61,000, I don't plan to treat it like extra long-term.

I just want to sell it if we will get towards that $79,000. So, anyway, I'm treating that as a DCA, right? So, most of the most of the reaccumulations that I will that I will create again in my hard wallet, I will be selling at $161,000 anyway, right?

So, right now, ladies and gentlemen, I'm still bullish on the daily time frame. So, we are creating a pattern that is called expanded flat. The C wave should have five waves to the upside. The first wave is a motive wave structure. So, let's take a look if we have finished this one.

On the 4-hour time frame, we can clearly see that we are defending very nicely the bottom of the fourth wave, the E wave at that $62,500. So, so far we have created 1 2 3 4, and since we are still defending the E wave, this wasn't a confirmed fifth wave just yet.

The market structure is still bullish. So, on the 4-hour time frame, I'm still bullish given that I've been neutral on the 4-hour time frame, but given that on the lower time frame, on the 1-hour time frame, you can see that we have done something that I'm always telling you about in order for you not to get caught in a fake out, you need to wait for a proper reclaim of an important

zone. So, you know that on the 1-hour time frame in the previous video, 2 days ago, I still have been quite a neutral, right? Until we can see either a reclaim of this resistance or this support. And how do we say that how we always say that the reclaim needs to look in order for us to not be caught in a fake out?

Well, we can still be caught in a fake out. We don't know what some whale can do, right? Some whale can do something irrational and just sell right here. So, it will crash again. But, in order for us to decrease the amount of getting caught on fake outs, we need to wait for a proper reclaim of any zones, right?

And how does it look? It looks that we are pushing to the upside above it, so we break above that zone on a rising volume, right? And then we are retesting it on declining volume. So, this exactly happened. As you can see, the bears have been very weak.

So, the bulls defended this zone pretty well. For me, after this candle, this is a clear reclaim of this resistance. So, I'm very confidently right now turning it into a green color. So, this is a new support at $64,700 and lower boundary $64,300.

All right? This is our new support, ladies and gentlemen. And since we have got such a beautiful reclaim on a nice momentum as well, where we didn't have any bearish divergence, as you can see, higher high on the price action, higher high on the on the MACD histogram.

So, no bearish divergence whatsoever. The momentum was clean and healthy. So, for me, this is a strong low time frame support zone at this moment, okay? So, the continuation to the upside from 1-hour time frame perspective is right now more likely, which increases the probability that we are actually creating the fifth wave on the 4-hour time frame that will take us towards that $69,000, all right?

So, from being neutral, that means 50/50, I'm right now on the 4-hour time frame turning much more much more positive for the bulls. All right? So, it's increasing the probabilities that we are creating this fifth wave. So, fourth wave finished right here. This fifth wave in a fashion of what?

In a fashion of ending diagonal, right? So, as we know, ending diagonal is made out of five corrective waves, right? And they are all exhales. They can take a pattern of one of these nine corrective motive wave structures, ladies and gentlemen. With the most commonly, it's uh they are zigzags.

So, so far we have created first wave with highest probability. Second wave, right now we might be creating the third wave. If you want to see where it might finish, we might put right here my Fibonacci retracement tool. So, right now we are hitting very like we are close to very important resistance on lower time frames at $65,300, okay?

So, medium time frame lower time frame is having a confluence right here. So, definitely I would be careful with some long positions. Give it like fresh long positions. If you're holding some long position, if you are taking it on medium time frame, if you have taken a long position just because of this resistance, given that I understand that the 1-hour time frame is having such a beautiful reclaim of the support, I

would not be selling the long position. I would I would quite hold it, all right? But, creating a long fresh positions right now can be dangerous given that the funding rates are getting positive. We are having 15% probability of a long squeeze. All right, we are getting close to the number 20.

And as you know, since it's summer, we are basically going sideways. So, predicting a break, all right, above that 60 level on our fear and greed index is coming with lower probability than predicting that we might continue the zigzag movement. All right, so given that we are at that level, we have got rejected multiple times since July 4th, all right, and we are also having long squeeze probability close to that magical

number 20. As we know, 60 on that fear and greed index and 20 on long squeeze probability, it's kind of suggesting that the longs are getting crowded and really a reversal in an opposite direction might happen, all right. So, fresh long positions right now might be dangerous, especially on the 4-hour time frame.

So, I would wait for a reclaim of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, this boundary basically at 65,500 dollars, and then there would be a nice probability of a continuation further to the upside. So, for me, a position at this level, long position, is not really not really smart idea.

I would not take it. You know that for me, a nice swing plus long position will be smart once we start pushing down towards 61 to 59,000 dollars. And a nice short position if we will get up to that 69,000 dollars, where I do believe that the fifth wave is going to finish, okay?

So, right now, purely based on the probability perspective, the price action should look right now with the highest probability something like this. If I put back the Fibonacci retracement tool, I think there's multiple confluences from the previous price action at $68,000. So, that might be a nice level for the for finishment of the third wave of that ending diagonal.

So, 1 2 3, all right? Then, if we take a look at the possible support of that wave structure, then we might go back to $64,600. Then, the price action would look something would look something like this. $64,700 will be acting as a support with the highest probability if we will get with the third wave to $68,000.

Well, and then the final fifth wave should take us towards that $69,000. Upon seeing that this is being a corrective motive structure, that fifth of the fifth with the highest probability it might be a zigzag. For me, upon more confirmations like some nice shooting star candlestick pattern and some other confirmations, this will be a great high probability short trade setup where I will be also able to create a nice risk reward.

And if you are in Paradise of the VIP, you will know about if I'm going to take this position because in Paradise of the VIP, we are sharing with you our personal trade setups with clear entry and exit targets. But, the setup might look might look something like this where I will be targeting this zone this support zone on medium time frame at 61 to $59,000.

So, I will probably stretch my last targets towards $59,000. As you can see, the risk reward will be quite nice, ladies and gentlemen. So, this might look like a beautiful ending diagonal, all right? So, if we take a look at the trend lines, we can see a confluence will be with this level right here.

1.618, you can see around that $69,000 rally, there will be a very strong confluence of multiple levels important levels. So, yeah, ladies and gentlemen, this might be the price action. If we will however start breaking below this because it might happen, right? Like the market is very often irrational.

As a professional traders, we need to be we need to be building our trading strategies in order for us to be prepared for the black swans black swans. So we can do something like this. We can reclaim this support even though right now it's extremely low probability, right?

But you know even in a roulette you can hit the number two 10 times in a row even, okay? So hitting number two 10 times in a row it's very improbable, right? But because we are living in a fat tailed world, these kind of improbable low probability events are happening.

And as a professional traders, we are not the ones that are trying to be everyday making some like money, right? We want to be positioning ourselves to survive the black swans and also position ourselves so we get lucky and during these black swans we actually maximize our profitability.

All right? So we are basically building ourselves in order to survive high volatility times markets. For example, this guy the Leopold, you know about him, right? When he was profitable for three years and then he lost absolutely everything. His hedge fund got absolutely erased from the market.

And it was just because he was not having not having a strategy that is prepared for the low probability events however that are happening, okay? That are happening and that can really wipe you out if you are not building your strategy in preparation that these events that most of the people are not even think about can happen, okay?

So ladies and gentlemen, don't be like Leopold, okay? Don't be like that you will be telling how smart you are to everyone for some short period of time like three years and then you lose absolutely everything in matter of 7 days. Be like a professional trader, all right?

Underperform Leopold for 3 years, and then when the rare moments happen, you will outperform Leopold because you will catch the black swan, you will make money on the black swan, and these traders that will have not been prepared for the black swans will be wiped out like Leopold, and you will make money on it, okay?

So, this might definitely happen. If that's going to happen, you know that I will not be scared right here, I will be prepared, I will be watching this as a hawk, as a long opportunity that will mean that with the highest probability this was the final fifth wave, and I will be positioning myself.

This might be the secondary wave, right? And I will be positioning myself for the third wave in a long position again upon confirmations of very high probability because of the beautiful structure and also great risk reward since the invalidation will be very close to my entry price.

High probability trade setups with great risk reward. That's what's My Crypto Paradise is about. That's what professional trading is about. But, be careful right now with the long positions. You know that with the highest probability as I have shown you, the price action will look something like this.

However, we also understand that from the fear and greed index perspective, people are getting the ones that are right now in the market are getting greedy, and the longs are getting crowded. So, definitely, if you're being in a long position, don't use high leverage, all right?

And manage your position carefully at this moment. So, ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated again on Tuesday. That will be my next video. On the 1-hour time frame, things are looking good. Uh the next important resistance is at $66,100, all right?

So, on the 1-hour time frame, I'm kind of bullish. The next important resistance is at $67,000 on the one-hour timeframe. So, highest probability is that this kind of movement, but again, because we understand what's going on behind the scenes with the funding rates and fear and greed index, and we also understand that on the medium timeframe, we are right now pushing into a resistance, okay?

On kind of low momentum, by the way, all right? Low momentum. The aggressive long positions might be might be dangerous, all right? So, watch out on the MACD histogram on four-hour timeframe. This across If you will start crossing the blue line below the red line, that's your warning sign to get out of long positions if you are if you are in a long position.

Because right now, it's not confirmed just yet, but we are forming a bearish divergence. As you can see, the bullish momentum at this moment is not very strong. We need to We need to uh start pushing the the bulls needs to start getting some power in order for us to be able to break above this medium timeframe resistance that is sitting at uh around $66,000, ladies and gentlemen, all right?

So, watch out for the volume. I want to see this break on a nice volume that will increase the probability that on the one-hour timeframe, we can be pushing towards that next important resistance, $67,000, all right? So, ladies and gentlemen, I'll keep you updated.

Stay safe. Trade with your professional trading strategy, and I will keep you updated, and we will see each other again on Tuesday. Cheers. >> Clear eyes. >> [music] >> Work done. Now I ride. No rush. No dread. >> [music] >> Right time for snap.

Clean setup. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. >> [music] >> Clean setup.