In short: Tesla missed earnings and still holds 11,500 bitcoins, so Simon asks if it could capitulate and sell. The ParadiseTeam stays bullish on the daily toward $79,000 while the expanded flat plays out. They watch the 60 to 59,000 zone as a potential long, and $63,000 as invalidation.
Could Tesla selling its bitcoin move the price?
Track it live: our crypto liquidation heatmap updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
Simon frames Tesla as one possible capitulating player, not the whole story. Tesla still holds 11,500 bitcoins after missing earnings and Elon Musk losing $44 billion.
The ParadiseTeam waits for key institutions to realize losses aggressively. That capitulation marked past macro bottoms in 2022, 2020, 2019, 2015, and 2011. Tesla is just one name on that watchlist.
Simon watches the net unrealized profit and loss chart for a move below zero. Below zero means capitulation, and staying there confirms it. You can follow the wider read in the Bitcoin analysis videos.
What is the macro target for Bitcoin?
On the weekly, the ParadiseTeam expects Bitcoin to reach the $44,000 zone before a macro bottom forms. They compare it to the 2022 exchange of hands zone.
Simon wants the drop into that zone to form an ending diagonal. It must respect the subwaves of each wave structure. He also studies momentum, volume, and the profit and loss chart.
Mining pressure adds to the case. Production cost sits near $79,000 and the electricity floor near $47,000, while Bitcoin trades around $65,000. The longer price stays low, the more miners feel it. Read our take on managing risk at levels. After the bottom, Simon eyes $169,000 as the third macro wave.
Is the move toward $79,000 still alive?
Yes, the daily structure stays bullish for now. The expanded flat’s C wave is an impulse. It stays valid unless a daily close breaks below the start of the first wave.
The ParadiseTeam still favors a push toward $79,000. But Simon works with probabilities, not certainties. If confirmations turn bearish, he adapts instead of fighting the market.
A pullback into the 60 to 59,000 zone could offer a long, not a place to short heavily. That zone stacks Fibonacci 0.618 and 0.786, VPVR, and previous structure. A tight stop below gives strong risk reward. The final target sits up to $79,000.
What are the lower time frames showing?
The 1 hour sits at support that was previous resistance. Price makes lower lows while open interest rises. That means new positions enter during the drop.
CVD shows aggressive selling, yet MACD momentum makes no new low. Simon reads that as possible absorption at support. Funding is slightly positive, so longs stay a little crowded. The live funding rates track that positioning.
Risk sits below the immediate support near $64,000 and $63,000. A break there could trigger a long squeeze, since the 4 hour longs stay crowded. Simon and the ParadiseTeam watch this support closely.
Frequently asked questions
Does Tesla have to sell its bitcoin?
Simon does not say Tesla must sell. He presents it as a probability question after the earnings miss and Elon’s $44 billion loss. Tesla still holds 11,500 bitcoins. The ParadiseTeam watches whether key institutions capitulate and realize losses, which historically helped form macro bottoms. Tesla is one candidate among several.
What invalidates the bullish daily view?
On the daily, the expanded flat stays bullish while the impulse holds. A daily close below the start of the first wave would invalidate it. That would remove the high probability of reaching $79,000. Simon stresses working with probabilities, not certainties, and adapting if confirmations turn bearish.
Where is Simon watching for a long?
The ParadiseTeam favors the 60 to 59,000 zone as a potential long, not a place to short heavily. That zone stacks Fibonacci levels, VPVR, and previous structure. A tight stop below invalidation gives good risk reward. Entries only come on confirmation, with a final target up to $79,000.
Why do mining costs matter here?
Simon cites production cost near $79,000 and an electricity floor near $47,000, while Bitcoin trades around $65,000. The longer price stays below those levels, the more pressure builds on miners who manage risk poorly. That pressure raises the probability they realize losses, feeding the capitulation he watches for.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned. It is what was said, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Breaking news. Tesla [music] misses on earnings and Elon Musk loses $44 billion, [music] but they still own 11,500 bitcoins. [music] So, what's going to happen with the Bitcoin price if they will start to compensate those losses by liquidating their digital assets? Will that help Bitcoin to push toward its [music] $44,000?
Let's analyze the probabilities. [music] my crypto paradise. >> Hello ladies and gentlemen of Cup. This is Smon from Market to Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. So previously we talked about that we are in this expanded flat pattern and the high time frame target for us is still $79,000.
That's on the daily time frame. But we are also looking to get a bit since we are doing multi-time frame analysis on the lower time frame. So we will be going through that in a minute. But first let's take a look on the weekly time frame because we are also doing together this macro time frame analysis.
So as you know we have been distributing Bitcoin around $19,000 and below $121,000 and since then we believe that we will hit $44,000. You know that we have charted together this kind of pattern formation, five subwaves that will take us towards this level $44,000.
Together with that, we are also looking at not only that $44,000, but at this zone because we know this zone is going to be with the highest probability the exchange of hands zone. The same way back in 2022, the zone around 24 to $16,000 marked the macro bottom, right?
And what's going to happen right here with the highest probability is the exchange of the hands aka the people, the traders that were not able to manage their risk properly, they will be forced to sell and the smart money that been waiting exactly for the situation, they will buy for them.
They will absorb the selling pressure and absorption is really the key word right here. We will go back to it once we analyze the lower time frames. They will absorb the selling pressure and that's how the bottom macro bottom with the highest probability is going to be created.
Well, and then we will be able to start pushing towards $169,000 which is going to be our third macro wave. Right? So you know exactly about these macro waves on the weekly time frame since you are watching those videos that I'm recording for you three times a week.
Let me just remind you one thing and that is the probable pattern that we going to create while going down with the highest probability towards this zone and that's the ending diagonal. Right? So there is still the high probability of creating this formation towards this zone and in this zone because we want to really make sure that we have as much probabilities on our side if we will start to reaccumulate it
back bitcoin aggressively the ones that we have been distributing right here and right here we want to have multiple confirmations right so we'll be watching multiple stuffs together it's going to be the pattern formation it needs to be an ending diagonal that respects like subwaves of each of this wave structure.
So we will be looking for that. We'll be looking at the momentum indicators at the volume etc. But together with that we will also be looking at the important stuff behind the scenes right so we will be looking together at what's going on with the net unrealized profit and loss.
So as you know as I've shared with you the zone of exchange of the hands back in 2022 right what was happening behind the scenes actually so I told you one thing that the we are waiting right here in 2026 for the people that not been able to manage their risk well to start capitulating and Tesla might be one of them right as you know from the intro they still hold 11,500
bitcoins which is not a small amount but Tesla is just one of the key players of the institutions that we are waiting for to capitulate. The same thing happened with the institutions that not been able to manage their risk well back in 2022.
And it doesn't stop in 2022. As you can see back in 2020 as well, back in 2019, back in 2015, back in 2011, every time we need those key players that are handling a lot of bitcoins to start capitulating, right? Basically what that means selling in loss aggressively right so we can see it on the net annualized profit and loss chart.
So when they start realizing their losses we will see it together and we need to go below that level zero as you can see zero that means capitulation. we need to go below it and spend some time there and then we will be watching the spot buying pressure that will tell us okay so this selling pressure is being absorbed and that's every time what's creating those macro bottoms right what we can
also watch is the mining cost because another key players are basically the bitcoin mining companies right so the bitcoin mining companies is in order for their business to be profitable, the Bitcoin needs to be at some certain price. So, it needs to be above electricity cost and also above production cost.
Currently, with the increased energy prices, etc. As you can see, the production cost is at $79,000. Right now, the current market price of Bitcoin is $65,000. So, that's already some pressure. And take a look at the other number there, electricity floor. That's $47,000.
And that is also why I do believe that the $44,000 is going to be a very important level because the longer we will stay below this $47,000, the more pressure it's going to put on these Bitcoin mining companies that were not able to manage their risk well.
And the longer we stay there, the bigger pressure it will put on them. And the longer we stay there, the higher probability that they will start realizing the losses. And we'll be seeing that, right? And once we start seeing also that the smart money are actually absorbing the selling pressure the same way they did in 2022, voila.
That's going to be our confirmation for reaccumulation aggressively our bitcoins back. So this is just uh like repetition like of the macro analysis. Let's take a look right now on the move towards that $79,000 if that's can still happen or if that's already doomed.
So let's take a look daily time frame ABC. All right, that's that expanded flat pattern. The structure is still bullish. All right, the only way the structure would change on the daily time frame would be as you know the C-wave is an impulse.
That means it separates itself into five more waves. Well, and what do we know about impulse? That the secondary wave cannot go below the start of the first wave. It can wick, but if the daily close below it, the market structure, the bullish market structure will be invalidated and the probabilities of going towards $79,000 will vanish.
Right? That's why as a professional traders, we are working with probabilities not with certaintities. That is why we are not really stubborn with this idea of going towards that $79,000. We know right now that there is still a high probability that it will happen.
But if we'll start getting confirmations that will argue against it, we are flexible like a water. We will adapt to the market situation to the environment. We will not fight the market. We will not listen our ego, right? And we will go with the flow.
we will adapt. But right now it still seems like we are completing the first wave. We will have the secondary wave. If this will be a great confirmation of a secondary wave, that means that the market after an inhale will create an exhale.
And you know the exhales, they have special patterns right in the market. One of them is zigzag. That's going to be a great confirmation for us to what to be able to create some nice long position and you know for the secondary wave we believe a great stopping zone of that push back could be around 60 to $59,000.
Why? Because there is loads of confluences at this zone. We have Fibonacci retracement level there 0.618 0.786. We have VPVR right there. We have confluences of previous market structure. Previously it was working as a bottom right here. Then as a resistance as you know that's also why we have the VPVR very high right here.
The it's it's a zone of conflict right a lot of trading happened at this level. So it's going to be acting as a proper wall as a proper wall. Together with that, let's go back a little bit on the daily time frame. But I'm saying that there are no bearish signs just yet to destroy this market structure early for us.
It still stays. There is this decreasement market participation during the bare trend on the daily time frame. We don't have any any proper bearish divergence. Yes, the momentum went quite aggressive without pushing the price much higher above the previous high. So you might say that this might be an exaggerated bearish divergence.
However, I would like to see first a proper cross and even though if not only cross but reclaim but even though if that would happen, it would just tell me that all right the secondary wave is already starting which we are predicting anyway, right?
It wouldn't tell me that this this low won't be holding. So for me this wouldn't be anything that would destroy the market structure on the daily time frame, the bullish market structure on the daily time frame. So right now I don't have any proper confirmations that this bullish market structure of possible expanded flat is being invalidated on the daily time frame.
So daily time frame henceforth the conclusion is that we are bullish still on the daily time frame but I cannot say something similar about the 4hour time frame. So, you know, immediate support is at is at around $63,000, but the major medium time frame support is at that 60 to $59,000, which if we will push there, ladies and gentlemen, I will definitely favor as not being in a panic and start shorting
heavily, but as a buying opportunity where a proper long position with a great riskreward can be actually created upon confirmations. So confirmations will give us high probability and riskreward is already given since we will be able to place our stop- loss very tightly.
That will be the invalidation area, right? And the exit targets as you know final target we can place up to $79,000 ladies and gentlemen. All right. So medium time frame bearish cross we have multiple signs right here. But I don't want to spend more time on 4our time frame.
I want to shift your focus towards one hour time frame very quickly. Uh without making this video too long, let's just remind ourselves that the first wave might not be just yet finished on the 4hour time frame. We have created 1, two, three, then we have got the fourth wave, right?
Where we have got the skewed triangle and right now we might be creating the final fifth wave where this was first wave, secondary wave, this might be third wave. And what do we know about the third wave? It cannot be the shortest wave structure.
So if you measure the first wave, the third wave, as you can see, it's not the shortest one. So from the allot wave perspective, it's absolutely all right. So we might be right now creating the fourth wave. However, invalidation would be for the fourth wave at $63,000 because the fourth wave cannot go below the end of the secondary wave, which is right here.
So definitely pay attention towards that $63,000 because if we will start touching there with the highest probability this support won't hold ladies and gentlemen and we might have actually already create the fifth wave at that $67,000 that we have been looking for. Yeah.
But if this is going to be a fourth wave, it might be a triangle and we will start creating five smaller waves. After this one will be created which probably might be an ABC zigzag. We will create another one. Second, third, fourth, fifth.
That will complete the triangle. As you know, we are creating five subways in triangles and then we might start seeing an uptrend towards 69,000 which is very important resistance on the medium time frame. But let's take a look right now on the 1 hour time frame.
What do we see right here is that we are at that support that was previously acting as a resistance. Let's take a look right here what's happening with the open interest. So as you can see the price action is creating lower lows and on the 1 hour time frame we are right now at support.
Okay. So those confluences are important to understand given that the open interest is increasing that means as you can see right here fall in price plus rise in oi new exposure entering during the price action depreciation. All right, together with that we so basically more new positions are being opened while we are at support on low time frame support and price action is creating lower lows.
All right, together with that CVD we can see is going down which is suggest that there is still aggressive selling going on. Together with that we can see that our funding crates are showing us that the funding crates are kind of positive but going into neutral numbers but we are still slightly more positive.
All right. So there are more long positions than short positions in the market right now. So long positions are kind of crowded. So what we can assume from that is that given that we are also seeing that the momentum take a look at the price action.
Yeah, lower low but the momentum not been able to create lower low on the MACD histogram just yet. So basically aggressive selling is going on. New contracts are being opened but the momentum is slowing down which is actually increasing the probabilities that if this support is going to hold all of this selling pressure is being absorbed.
Okay. So the probabilities are right now really warning against being in a short position because if we will start pushing back to the upside all of this immediate new positions that just been created all right will be liquidated and there is right now the fuel on the lower time frames.
All right. Together with that, be very aware of this immediate support which is ending at $64,000 because if we will start breaking below this support since on the higher time frames the longs are still being more crowded as you can see on the 4-hour time frame Bitcoin still has long squeeze probability.
I remind the 4hour time frame which is higher time frame than 1 hour time frame they are still crowded. If we'll start pushing below this immediate resistance, there will be the long squeeze. All right. So once we start if we start pushing below this resistance, the price action might be very aggressive.
Okay? So be aware of that. Together with that, we can see that as the price action is creating lower lows, the participation in the market, we can see it on the volume is increasing. Okay? So be aware of that because the participation is increasing but the momentum is actually not right.
The momentum is much lower than on this low right here. So what does it it basically confirms what we are saying right here. Right? On the lower time frames the sellers are being aggressive without being able to push below this support. Right? which suggest that absorption is going on.
So I am watching personally with the paradise team this support zone as a hawk ladies gentlemen. If you will do some action you will know about it in paradise only VIP. Watch with me this support trade with a professional trading strategy and I will see you next time again on Saturday and we will together unlock this market again.
Until then take care, trade safe and I will see you on Saturday. Cheers. >> Calm breath, clear [music] now. No rush, no drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up. [music] Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. M [music] clean set
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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