In short: Tesla missed earnings and still holds 11,500 bitcoins, so Simon asks if it could capitulate and sell. The ParadiseTeam stays bullish on the daily toward $79,000 while the expanded flat plays out. They watch the 60 to 59,000 zone as a potential long, and $63,000 as invalidation.
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Simon frames Tesla as one possible capitulating player, not the whole story. Tesla still holds 11,500 bitcoins after missing earnings and Elon Musk losing $44 billion.
The ParadiseTeam waits for key institutions to realize losses aggressively. That capitulation marked past macro bottoms in 2022, 2020, 2019, 2015, and 2011. Tesla is just one name on that watchlist.
Simon watches the net unrealized profit and loss chart for a move below zero. Below zero means capitulation, and staying there confirms it. You can follow the wider read in the Bitcoin analysis videos.
What is the macro target for Bitcoin?
On the weekly, the ParadiseTeam expects Bitcoin to reach the $44,000 zone before a macro bottom forms. They compare it to the 2022 exchange of hands zone.
Simon wants the drop into that zone to form an ending diagonal. It must respect the subwaves of each wave structure. He also studies momentum, volume, and the profit and loss chart.
Mining pressure adds to the case. Production cost sits near $79,000 and the electricity floor near $47,000, while Bitcoin trades around $65,000. The longer price stays low, the more miners feel it. Read our take on managing risk at levels. After the bottom, Simon eyes $169,000 as the third macro wave.
Is the move toward $79,000 still alive?
Yes, the daily structure stays bullish for now. The expanded flat’s C wave is an impulse. It stays valid unless a daily close breaks below the start of the first wave.
The ParadiseTeam still favors a push toward $79,000. But Simon works with probabilities, not certainties. If confirmations turn bearish, he adapts instead of fighting the market.
A pullback into the 60 to 59,000 zone could offer a long, not a place to short heavily. That zone stacks Fibonacci 0.618 and 0.786, VPVR, and previous structure. A tight stop below gives strong risk reward. The final target sits up to $79,000.
What are the lower time frames showing?
The 1 hour sits at support that was previous resistance. Price makes lower lows while open interest rises. That means new positions enter during the drop.
CVD shows aggressive selling, yet MACD momentum makes no new low. Simon reads that as possible absorption at support. Funding is slightly positive, so longs stay a little crowded. The live funding rates track that positioning.
Risk sits below the immediate support near $64,000 and $63,000. A break there could trigger a long squeeze, since the 4 hour longs stay crowded. Simon and the ParadiseTeam watch this support closely.
Frequently asked questions
Does Tesla have to sell its bitcoin?
Simon does not say Tesla must sell. He presents it as a probability question after the earnings miss and Elon’s $44 billion loss. Tesla still holds 11,500 bitcoins. The ParadiseTeam watches whether key institutions capitulate and realize losses, which historically helped form macro bottoms. Tesla is one candidate among several.
What invalidates the bullish daily view?
On the daily, the expanded flat stays bullish while the impulse holds. A daily close below the start of the first wave would invalidate it. That would remove the high probability of reaching $79,000. Simon stresses working with probabilities, not certainties, and adapting if confirmations turn bearish.
Where is Simon watching for a long?
The ParadiseTeam favors the 60 to 59,000 zone as a potential long, not a place to short heavily. That zone stacks Fibonacci levels, VPVR, and previous structure. A tight stop below invalidation gives good risk reward. Entries only come on confirmation, with a final target up to $79,000.
Why do mining costs matter here?
Simon cites production cost near $79,000 and an electricity floor near $47,000, while Bitcoin trades around $65,000. The longer price stays below those levels, the more pressure builds on miners who manage risk poorly. That pressure raises the probability they realize losses, feeding the capitulation he watches for.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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