Poolin Bankruptcy: Why It Could Trigger a Squeeze

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A Bitcoin mining company Poolin has just filed [music] for chapter 11 bankruptcy. Will that help to push Bitcoin towards $44,000? Let's analyze the probabilities. [music] >> My [singing and music] Crypto Paradise >> Hello ladies and gentlemen of Paradise Comp. This is Ammon from My Crypto Paradise.

Welcome back. It's great to hear. Today is Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. So, Poolin the Bitcoin mining company Poolin has just filed for bankruptcy. But, with the Paradise team, we have marked this news as bullish for crypto.

So, why? Because Poolin actually already realized their losses 2 years ago actually and they don't hold any Bitcoin anymore. They don't have any Bitcoin. So, there is nothing to sell. So, we don't need to worry that it will put some pressure on the Bitcoin price because there is nothing to sell.

But, why is it bullish? Because of the sentiment it creates in the market and the time this news been actually distributed. So, the time the news been distributed is when we are actually at our strong support on the medium time frame. And I will tell you what data do I have to tell you clearly that there is so much confluences for this support to be a very tough nut to crack.

So, I do put a lot of importance to this support, okay? So, the time is one thing when it was created this news. The second thing that is important is what kind of effect it has. And we can see that it actually has bearish sentiment effect, okay?

So, sentiment is something different. So, we have marked it bullish because the sentiment actually gets bearish because of that and it will create a short squeeze probability. I will explain that. So, right now what we can see on our funding rates that you can monitor with me on our website marketreparations.com is that we are actually dividing the exchanges, okay?

So, we are dividing the exchanges between the exchanges where most of the retail is trading and then between the exchanges where the smart money is trading, all right? So, and you can see a clear difference between the funding rates, okay? So, the funding rates on the retail heavy exchanges are getting kind of neutral to negative as we can see.

Bybit is actually getting negative. What we can see on the other exchanges that are focused on smart money capital, the funding rates are actually positive. So, what we can assume from it, the retail heavy exchanges, they have more positions that are in shorts right now and the smart money exchanges, they have more positions that are in longs right now.

That's interesting, isn't it? So, it's actually creating bearish sentiment. Not only this news, this news is one of the piece in the overall puzzle, all right? There is definitely more things that mentally is putting pressure on majority of people which is creating the bearish sentiment on medium time frame, okay?

We are talking about medium time frame. On the daily time frame, I'm still bullish. Why am I bullish? As you can see on the daily time frame, we are in neutral on fear and greed index, right? And on the daily time frame, I'm bullish.

I am bullish. On the weekly time frame, I'm bearish. We will talk about this and on the four time frame, I'm bullish as well, okay? So, why am I not bearish on the daily time frame? Because we are actually creating the pattern that will with the highest probability take us towards $79,000.

$79,000 is a very important level. There is many confluences, and you know that when you can put to some level a lot of confluences, not only that the level gets stronger, so this resistance is going to be pretty strong, but also the probability of the price revisiting this level is increasing as well with the amount of confluences we have at that level.

And you know, if you're watching these videos on daily basis, you know that I'm recording for you every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday, that this level does indeed have a lot of confluences, right? So, very strong level that $79,000. On the weekly time frame, I'm bearish.

When we marked this level as bullish for crypto with the Party's team, it doesn't mean that I believe that the macro bottom is in. It's definitely something that we've been talking about for some time right now about those institutions and Bitcoin mining companies.

They need to capitulate. They need to start doing these Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings, right? Because we actually need to refresh the market again. It's this kind of purge, right? We need to get rid of the bad risk managers, and we need to give more space to a good risk managers.

It's happening since 2011, right? We need to watch the net unrealized profit and loss indicator, this one, that we will make public very soon on our website, and we need to see that the exchange of the hands is happening. That's how the macro bottoms are being created since 2011.

The bad risk managers in those companies, those institutions, they need to start realizing their losses heavily because right now we know, right, that a lot of them are holding their assets, their digital assets in a loss, but they are not realizing their loss just yet.

So, we are waiting for the moment that they will be under so much pressure like the Bitcoin mining company Poolin has been, but it was a long time ago. They have actually been very bad risk managers. They've been already distributing back in 2022, okay?

Actually, they have just uh filed for bankruptcy right now. So, it's creating again, it's not actually bearish for crypto, all right? It's just creating this kind of bearish sentiment, but there are 500,000 more companies I don't even know about, all right, that are holding their crypto in loss.

I know I know about some of them. I don't know about all of them. And those companies needs to they need to they need to start realizing their losses. I don't need to know about them. I just need to watch this chart, and you can relax because I'm monitoring this chart, and I will be updating you in these videos about it.

Because what we are waiting together for is those companies starting to realize their losses, and the smart money absorb the selling pressure, and that's every time how every macro bottom is being created. So, we are watching the net unrealized profit and loss graph, right?

And also the spot buying. And once we see the divergence that the realization of the losses is happening, the spot buying is actually going up, right? So, net unrealized profit loss is going down, the loss is being realized, but it's being absorbed by the spot buying, which is going up.

It will tell me, all right, the bottom is being created. It happened every single time. Right now, we can see that we are very close to that important level zero, but we are not yet below it, and also time wise we are not spending time below it.

All right, so the quickest one was back in 2022, but as you can see it wasn't actually the macro bottom. It was a very short period of time we have spent below the capitulation level zero, but every single time during the proper macro bottoms that afterwards created the next bull trends, and you know, for the next bull trend I'm expecting our target $169,000 to be hit.

We need to spend some time in this zone to give enough time for the exchange of the hand situation to happen. All right, so back in 2022, the zone of the exchange of the hands been right here at 24 to $16,000. You know, that since basically 2025 right here, I do expect that the zone of exchange of the hands will be at 55 to $44,000.

So, that's why with probably some of the VIPs we have been distributing our Bitcoin right here and then below $121,000 as well, and we are expecting the move towards this zone to happen in the five sub-waves, right? So, right now from this five sub-waves we have already created four, and right now with the highest probability we are creating the fifth one.

The fifth one will with the highest probability again have formation of an ending diagonal. Is this kind of jargon I will not bore you with, but what you need to know that right now the likelihood is that we have created the first wave of that fifth, and right now we are creating the second that might take us towards $79,000.

Then we will create the third, fourth, and then the fifth might take us towards that $44,000. Might not, but right now going in this structure towards the $44,000 is actually the highest probability scenario for me. Medium scenario is that we will just hit this zone for a bit, but not hit $44,000.

Lowest probability scenario is that we will start recovering from here and we will start pushing towards $169,000 from the current market price. That's the lowest probability scenario right now. So, let's have a look. Let's zoom in and let's take a look at this wave that might take us towards $79,000.

So, we are actually creating it in this kind of pattern that we call expanded flat where the C wave subdivides itself into five small waves. Right now, I don't believe that the first wave been finished just yet. So, overall on the daily time frame, I'm bullish, but I'm being very aware.

I'm being aware of the lower time frame bearish indications, okay? So, as you can see on the price action, we are creating since July, since the beginning of July, higher highs. On the momentum indicator, you can see the histogram on this MACD is creating lower highs.

So, we are having a divergence. I'm not going to because of this divergence call it a day, all right? I'm not going to call it that we will need to break the basically there is high probability of right now reversing absolutely towards the downside and breaking below $57,000.

Absolutely not. But, I know that we are going close to the end of this first wave and the secondary wave might be starting. You already know that the secondary wave once it starts, I'm not going to be in a panic mode as we start pushing to the downside, right?

So, I'm not I'm going to be actually watching for a nice buying opportunity. That might be around the important level 61 to $60,000, okay? We will talk about it more precisely on the medium time frame in a minute, but right now I just need you to understand that I'm being careful on the lower time frames, but anyway, I'm still bullish on the daily time frame.

I still believe 79,000 dollars is right now high probability, but I'm aware that this wave from 57 towards 67, it's starting to lose momentum basically, all right? So, will be able to start taking over quite soon, but not just yet. I still believe we might have one last push towards my magical number 69,000 dollars.

We will talk about it in a minute. I'm also aware on the RSI that we are having on the daily time frame a bearish cross, but it's not confirmed just yet, okay? So, even though I'm aware of these things, I'm still bullish on the daily time frame, and I don't believe the first wave it wasn't yet finished.

So, I do believe we have still one push to go before we will start creating the secondary wave, okay? So, we have so far created one, two, three, four waves. I do believe in this hard degree first wave. Let's talk about it. Let's zoom in right now on the 4-hour time frame.

So, the calculation is very clean. We will go through it in a minute, but you know that in the previous video we talked about this support, right? And we talked about that if it's going to break, it's going to be very volatile because the longs been crowded, right?

We talked about that. If you remember, if you have watched the previous video, we had the probabilities for a long squeeze on Bitcoin at 16 to 20%, right? And I told you in this current market situation that's kind of a lot already. So, no squeeze happened, and right now we are only at 5% probability of another long squeeze, but we understand also that it's been mostly created by the longs from the

smart money. Okay? So, the context is important. So, the the long squeeze right now is being less likely. Okay? And we are actually on Bitcoin. I'm not talking about altcoins. For example, with private signal VIPs, we have just taken a first take profits target on our Zcash position.

And we have done a very boring thing. We have opened that with 1x leverage. All right? Because we are managing a lot of money. So, big capital. We don't want to in the original membership be creating high leverage trades or some some scalping.

We have scalping membership for that, for small capital. So, for this, for many people, most of the people, it seems boring. For us, this is the only way how we can really successfully get in and get out of positions with our capital. So, we have done another boring thing.

And that after we have taken the target one with just one x leverage, we have caught a 11% drop. We have placed stop-loss to break even. Okay? Because we are aware that we are right now hitting a support not only on Bitcoin, but also on some important altcoins.

Definitely, we might be going down. We might continue to go down. But, right now, as I've told you, the support is extremely important to me because of all of the confluences I'm seeing right here. And not only that, if we take a look on the 4-hour time frame, bullish.

All right? I do expect that with the highest probability, we will start pushing towards $69,000. But, why? Because the structure is still bullish. So, as you know, we need to create a five moves to upside to call this first wave to be finished.

So, calculate with me. It's a very easy math. 1 2 3 4. This was the fourth wave that created ABCD skewed triangle, right? And where is the fifth wave? Well, the fifth wave is not created just yet. We've been looking at the sub waves of this sequence and it's not five waves.

I've been going down to to 1-minute time frame. I don't see it. I don't see five waves. So, I might be wrong with my calculation, all right? But, the higher probability is that we have actually created ABC zigzag and exile. How's that possible?

Well, because this fifth wave might be actually an ending diagonal, all right? So, ending diagonal, ladies and gentlemen, let's have a look how ending diagonal is being created in five sub waves, all right? All of them corrective motive waves. And it's a motive wave structure, so it can indeed be the part of the fifth wave.

So, the fifth wave might subdivide itself into the pattern and structure of the ending diagonal, okay? So, with the highest probability, as you can see, if I analyze this structure with my Fibonacci retracement tool right here, we have just hit the 786 Fibonacci retracement level and it's holding.

Together with that, we have created a higher low so far, but on the momentum indicator MACD, we have created equal low. What does it mean? Well, it means that the bears are getting exhausted. But, why? Because take a look at the momentum. They have pushed the momentum to the previous low, but the price action have not been able to go to the previous low.

So, the bears are aggressive. They are exhausting themselves. They are really doing as as much they can, but they are not able to push the price through the support. So, with the highest probability, it's actually being absorbed by the smart money. So, we are connecting everything together, right?

Bearish news Bearish news pushed at support. Retail being the one that is being fearful right now. Smart money on the exchanges that we looked at is actually doing the opposite. They are creating long positions. So, it seems like the selling pressure has been absorbed, which is increasing the probability of a short squeeze and push in the opposite direction, aka a reversal.

If you take a look on the RSI, we are having the slope even lower, which means how do we call this? We call this a hidden bullish divergence, ladies and gentlemen. If the price action is creating higher low, but the momentum indicator, in our case we are watching at RSI and MACD at this moment, and the RSI created a lower low, this is called hidden bullish divergence, ladies and gentlemen.

So, we can see that it's confirmed that the momentum is really exhausting itself, but the price failing to synergize with the momentum, right? So, the bears are getting exhausted, and somebody with the eyes probably is absorbing the selling pressure. We have the data for that.

So, as a professional traders, I'm not actually creating long just based on this. I want to wait for more confirmations, right? So, I want to see a bullish cross on the RSI. I want to turn this resistance into support that will be called a reclaim.

Then, one bullish candle, which will put the line RSI to start looking to the upside, and that will be my confirmation that with the eyes probably we will have a continuation. Continuation is the keyword right here. You always want to be catching the continuation, right?

To make the to make the profit. The trend is your friend. So, where is the likelihood of continuation? Right now, the path of least resistance is actually to the upside. However, as a professional traders, we are aware that definitely this might happen as well.

We might broke below this support. We might retest it as a resistance and then we will be adjusting our strategies and tactics based on that, right? So, I'm actually not looking much for buying. What I'm going to do if you will start pushing towards that $69,000 and again, more confluences, the stronger the level is, right?

The more confluences, the more the level is becoming to work as a magnet, right? So, $69,000 really important level, ladies and gentlemen, where I have a lot of confluences and if you will finish right here and get some confirmations, it might be a great opportunity for a short position, but I will be more interested into buying during the secondary wave creation, right?

So, if you will finish right here, you can see another confluence at the $60,000. So, I'm going to be very interested to see how the $60,000 level is going to be acting and it will with the highest probability create a great opportunity to create a beautiful risk reward and high probability trade setup for us to be able to catch the third wave, which is the most impulsive one, right?

So, one, two and then the third wave. Right here, it will be a great buying opportunity. That's how I'm thinking about trading high probability and high risk reward, ladies and gentlemen. So, this might be an ending diagonal right now in formation. If we also want to have some more confluences at that $69,000, we can do this kind of time analysis, so we can take a look how long it took for the

first wave of that ending diagonal to be created. We can see 4 days, 4 hours. Then with the highest probability, how much it took for the secondary wave to be created. We can see a little a less, right? Around 3 days. Then, so we can see that the trend is decreasing a little bit.

Now for the third wave, it's going to be a little bit lower. So might look something like this. Depends on how strong the price action is going to be. Then the fourth wave, yeah, again a little bit slower time frame. And then the final time frame.

And then the final fifth wave. As you can see, if the third wave is not going to be the most aggressive, the fifth wave might be. And it's might beautifully confluence with the ascendant trend line right here, ladies and gentlemen. So the ascendant trend line I have taken by connecting the these two lows.

I have taken the slope of that. I've placed it to the top of the possible first wave. And it's again creating to me nice spot right here, which is actually in August. Yeah? Exactly, 2nd of August. So, ladies and gentlemen, 2nd of August we create the final fifth wave.

And then we might start pushing to the downside. So resistance $69,000 in my opinion is going to be very strong. And then I will be looking to buy at $61,000. All right? So I'm not going to be in a panic mode even if you will start crashing from here.

I'm not going to be in a panic mode once we revisit this zone. I will be treating that as a buying opportunity. So right now highest probability is that we will start pushing to the upside. We will be monitoring with the Paradice team how the price action is going to react going towards this resistance.

Definitely for healthy price action and continuation I want to see that the price action creating higher highs, rising volume. I want to see healthy momentum. I want to see CVD to be showing aggressive buying. I want the open interest to be increasing only slightly not to put the long positions in a risk of being squeezed and I I will be watching lots of stuff that will tell me what to do in

the market. And if you are in a Paradise only VIP, you will know exactly what kind of actions I'm going to take and the Paradise team going to take. So, ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated again on Tuesday. And by the way, remember in professional trading, consistency is important.

And that's why we have made the album Professional Trader that you can listen to on Spotify and Apple Music, okay? It's about sticking with the good habits, okay? Because it's like when you go to the gym, right? For a first month you go into a gym every day, second month, well, you are sometimes like, I don't want to go.

Like, it doesn't matter that I skip one day. Well, and you're going to go into this loop of starting to lose the great behavior, the great habit that you build for yourself. And then instead of going to the gym, you will buy hamburger, you will start watching television.

Well, and you will be getting fatter and fatter and fatter, right? The same way with trading. If you stop following your rules, it's just enough one day. You're going to go into the slippery slope bad trading behavior and you will start you will start losing money and you will start losing more and more and more, okay?

So, I want you to get fitter, not fatter, all right? I want you to get fit, not fat, all right? So, I want you to make money, make money, make money, not lose money, lose money and get fatter and fatter, okay? So, it's really important that you stay consistent.

And I know in the mindset, in the correct mindset, and that is why we have created the trading album, okay? It's helping me, it's helping the traders in the company to stick on daily basis with the correct mindset of a professional trader. I listen to it every day.

My team is listening to it every day and that's how we are able to stick with our system, with our process, all right? And you know, it's not about outcome, it's about the process. Even a bad process can earn you money. So, that's the worst thing, right?

Like, you will never gain anything by Well, you will actually by not going to the gym, you will gain in a short run this good feeling. It feels good to eat hamburger and watch television, but in the long run, will get fatter and fatter and fatter.

In the same way, if you break rules in trading, it might feel good in the short run because it doesn't feel good to go against the crowd, right? We are meant to follow what other people are doing, right? When we were in the woods, basically, you wanted to eat the same berries you have seen somebody else to eat.

It was the safe safe thing to do, basically, and it felt good, right? You felt safe. So, going against the crowd, going against the uncomfortable feelings doesn't feel good in the short run, but it will make you money in the long run, right?

So, consistently doing the uncomfortable things is actually what makes you profit in the markets, but it's not easy to do. That's why we have created the trading album professional trader on Spotify and Apple Music. So, I I'm very grateful to hear from the people that are writing me that it's helping to them and I want to push it even more.

So, if you're listening to it and if it's helping you, I will be really happy to hear your feedback because there is nothing like this on the market and it's really helping me and the team. So, yeah, go and listen to it. All right, I will see you again on Tuesday.

Until then, take care, trade safe, and cheers. >> Clear eyes, work done. No rush, no dread. Right [music] time for snap, clean setup. Clean click. Execute like a pro, that's it. >> [music] >> Clean setup.