Is Bitcoin Ready for a Bigger Rally? Simon’s Breakdown

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Bitcoin is at support, smart money is absorbing the selling pressure. There are multi-million-dollar buy walls below us, not much sell walls above us, but there is a liquidation cluster at $79,000. So, can Bitcoin have the bigger pump to the upside, or is there going to be a bigger crash?

Let's analyze the probabilities. Yello ladies and gentlemen, this is Simon from MyCryptoParadise, welcome back, it's great to be here today, it's Thursday and that means that you're watching another second video of this week. So previously we were talking about that the momentum, the bearish momentum, has been eaten by the smart money.

We have seen this exaggerated, bullish divergence on the one hour time frame and we have understood that with the highest probability, the support below us is going to halt and we will move to the upside So as you can see, it's nicely, Bitcoin is nicely moving to the upside.

However, it was fighting with this resistance right here and with this VPVR once, twice. Right now we are attacking that, for a third time. Can we break it? Let's analyze in this video. With ParadiseFamilyVIP, we have been taking profit on our altcoin Blur.

It was a scalping signal. And look, this is exactly why we are limiting the number of seats in ParadiseFamilyVIP. So we have taken target 1, target 2. The pump was nearly, it nearly hit our target 3, but there were some front run, front runners, some, bots, basically front run, our sell wall that we have created because we have put as a group a lot of sell orders right there.

So it got rejected, but thankfully because we are placing our stop loss to break even, we are not moving that, once we moved, once we hit target 1, we placed our stop loss to break even. As you can see, it wasn't hit, so we stayed in the signal and then, for on the next run, we have hit the target 3.

So on this altcoin, you can, you can see when the, because the market, the crypto market is extremely low liquidity place. So we really need to be careful where we place our exit target, where we place, exit targets in our, like, in order for us to take profit and also where we place our exit target, when we cut our losses.

This is extremely important because if we place it at wrong places, right, for example, if we wrongly analyze our resistance and we place it above important resistance, not below, if we are in a long position, then Bitcoin can vary or any other cryptocurrency can easily, drop back down without hitting our target, even though we have been correct on our, on our bias, on the market direction, right?

So that is also why it's important to understand the liquidity, current liquidity in the market. So, it's about the coins you are trading. It's also about the market phase. Sometimes there is more liquidity, sometimes slower. And that's also why, we are allowing more members, more volume in our ParadiseFamilyVIP, inner circles, and where we are sometimes can onboard more volume.

And then when we, again, needs to close the seat. So this is exactly the reason we have got quite like, we sometimes we cannot, we cannot, we cannot get it right, right? Exactly. So here I can admit we probably should have placed the, the exit target a little bit closer to, the 8,600, right?

But, sometimes, because, like, the major resistance, was at a 800, 8,800 right here. So sometimes basically these kind of, bots algorithms, they, when they see even a smaller sell wall, and given that there was a very low liquidity in this coin, especially, they basically go, go front, the front run that sell wall, and then the, the, the coin pushes down, right?

Without hitting the next important resistance. So we cannot always get it right. For us, it's extremely important that the target one and target two, because we are exiting most of our position size, these two targets is positioned as, as good as possible, without making any possibility for these hunters to hunt our exit targets this way.

So in, in, in terms of stop loss, they hunted that they are trying to liquidate you and then move it in an opposite direction. In terms of take profit targets, they try to front run your sell wall, right? So this liquidity where you have your take profit targets is not being hit.

And then they push the price down and they hope that basically you will start to panic and then you will start exiting at market price, which will push the price lower and lower. And given that they have front run that, that, take profit of yours, then they are making the profit on your volume, right?

So then you start exiting at market price, you help to push the price lower and lower, they have entered right here, right? And once they see that this wall is cleared and the, the, the market actually absorbed that selling pressure that was supposed to be executed at that liquidity pool, then they exit and that's how they make profit, right?

So given that we understand this, we can prepare for it. We can prepare for it and we can give those algorithms no possibility to make profit at all. And for these algorithms, they are doing these kind of scammy things. Mostly it's created by a lot of exchanges, these algorithms, because exchanges, the big ones like Binance and Bybit, they have the data.

They have very clean data or where the, where the, their customers are having their, their orders, etc. They see absolutely everything, right? And those, those exchanges that are heavy retail ones, you bet that they are doing everything they can to make as much money on you as possible.

That is also why, in MyCryptoParadise, we are specifically trading on those exchanges with low fees and great management team, behind those that definitely is not Binance or Bybit. And you know exactly what I'm talking about. So, yeah, with ParadiseFamilyVIP, we are trading on special exchanges where we know the management team, where we know that they are not tracking our orders or that they don't have these kind of algorithms, hunting bots.

And, that's why we can also be more, we can, we can basically sustain our profitability much better than if we would be trading on heavy fee exchanges plus those exchanges that are spying on our orders and trying to hunt us, which is immoral.

I don't, I don't really support this. Anyway, let's take a look at Bitcoin. So can Bitcoin keep on pumping? You know that in the previous video, we have been taking a look at the $90,000 level, right? So as you remember, $90,000 level is a quite high probability target for us before we will start going through the major correction that we are actually focusing on, on the higher degree time frame.

So let me just recap too late very quickly what we are seeing on the weekly and on the daily. You know that on the weekly, we are still staying bearish, right? Since 121,000 dollars, we predict that there is going to be much higher probability of pushing towards 44,000 dollars to create the macro bottom, and then we will be able to push towards the new all -time high, 169,000 dollars.

I still have the same stance on the weekly time frame. I'm still bearish. We have not aggressively re -accumulated back our Bitcoin with ParadiseFamilyVIP. You know that we have been just doing some aggressive re -accumulation. So we have been distributing right here and right here.

Then we have done some aggressive re -accumulation at around 71,000 and 61,000 dollars. And I have already told you that we have sold in profit at 79,000 dollars with this re -accumulation. And now we are much heavier, we are heavy in USDT inside of our hard wallets.

We have only small portion of Bitcoin left. So yeah, I'm waiting for better prices. You know that the 60 % scenario is that we will get rejected from the current prices maximum that 90,000 dollars. And we will push towards this exchange of hands zone.

If you don't know what I mean by the exchange of hands zone, watch the video that I have recorded. I think on Saturday we went through it, right? The unrealized profit and loss chart I have showed you again, I think, etc. And we have understood from the behind the scenes data from the smart money versus the dumb money, what the smart money is waiting for, what they were waiting for since 2011

every time before the macro bottom. Last time it was 2022 was created. What kind of mechanics are happening behind the scenes that allow the market to create the macro bottoms. And we have understood, alright, in 2026 during this bear market it has not happened yet.

And that is why 60 % probability that given that also the market structure is right now bearish and we are understanding the pattern, right? That we will start getting rejected and we will have much better opportunity to re -accumulate lower. So 30 % probability, however, is that we will continue to push towards 99,000 dollars.

That will mean that the C wave of our expanded flat is going to finish at 99,000 dollars and it's going to be expanded, right? That will finish the fourth wave and then with the highest probability we will start pushing towards that exchange of hands zone 55 to 44,000 dollars.

So that's 30 % probability, alright. But what about the rest of 10 %? Well, because we are professional traders we need to be prepared for every single scenario. And that is why if we start seeing that the Bitcoin is reclaiming this 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and we can turn that resistance into support and we will see the smart money behind the scenes re -accumulating already here.

Not waiting for the lower prices and we will see that the global economy is getting better, alright? Without retail being the one that is going to turn this resistance into support, it needs to be the smart money, we will re -accumulate here. That means at higher prices than we are waiting for at this moment, right?

We will still be re -accumulated lower than we were distributing like a year and something ago. But it will definitely not be with our high probability plan, right? But if that's going to happen, we will not be stubborn and we will just re -accumulate higher with an expectation that there is going to be enough power left for the market to be able to push towards the new autumn high 169,000 dollars presumably,

right? So let's take a look right now on the daily timeframe, also bearish even though there is the high probability of pushing towards 90,000 dollars now. We understood and we explained, we went through to reasons, the reasons why it's not really smart to play with bullish trading tactics even though there is a high probability of pushing towards 90,000 dollars, right?

So we are playing with bearish trading tactics, so daily bearish for me as well, I'm waiting for bearish trading opportunities right here. However, the medium timeframe and the lower timeframe, like 1 hour scalping timeframes, like 5 minutes, 15 minutes, they are actually quite bullish and there is multiple reasons why.

So first of all, we can take a look at this imbalance, so Bitcoin exchange liquidation map is showing us a huge imbalance of leverage positions. So there is this kind of ticking bomb and 79,000 dollars, so there is a possibility that we can push towards the next important support 0.786, right?

But that will still hold this bullish structure, right? So as you have seen in the intro, it's very hard for the market makers to push below it. There is multiple buy walls, there is technical supports below as the market structure is bullish and above us there is not only a lack of sell walls, but there is.

So there is lack of sell walls, but there is a lot of liquidations, right? So we have understood in the previous video that we have something that's called a domino effect, right? In the market and that happens when you have a lot of liquidations at one side, right now it's above us.

If you can take a look, if you start pushing towards that 90,000 dollars, which is the next major resistance on the medium timeframe, we will liquidate over 11.5 billion dollars, right? War for short positions right now, cumulative short positions. That's much more than if you will push towards the same side, towards like the same direction to the downside, right?

But this 79,000 dollars, that's a dangerous place. However, below that afterwards, not much liquidity to have to push the price lower and lower. That is why the medium timeframe is right now, from this perspective, more bullish than bearish and also because we can see that the dumb money is still not being involved, right?

From the short timeframe perspective, not much like new positions are entering into the market. So we understand right now there is much more short positions, cumulative short positions, but at this moment, as we are consolidating at this support, not much new positions are entering, right?

So who is actually entering is spot money, which is usually the smart money, because when you have a lot of money in your arsenal, you don't really need to borrow and trade with leverage, right? So if you trade with leverage, you trade with a little leverage, or you are trading with leverage just to execute on a small move.

So when the market is, for example, sideways, when you are doing some tactical scalping, etc., right? But what we can see right now is the divergence between what the open interest is doing and what is the cumulative volume delta CVD only on spot is doing.

So as you can see, the price is consolidating, creating equal lows, but the cumulative volume delta is aggressively creating higher lows. So spot money is getting in. So that's accumulation of smart money. We have been looking at the whales, what the smart whales are doing previously.

I've shared with you the Kiel whale that is one of the great performing whales over the past few years, right? So he entered a long position already. And then if we take a look at the past 24 hours, we don't see a heavy selling.

And sometimes it's the dog that isn't barking, that is the main signal. So we don't see a heavy selling right now from the whales. We see quite the opposite already, right? So right now, even though it's evenly split, we see a little bit more buying.

But again, it's much more important what we don't see at this moment, given that the context is we are at support, etc. And the important context that we are not seeing is that the whales are heavily selling, which is very positive and increasing the probabilities that Bitcoin will have the next bigger move.

And now we are answering the question from the intro of this video. The bigger move, if the highest probability is going to be to the upside. However, we cannot completely remove the possibility of Bitcoin pushing towards that 79,000 dollars. So let me now give you the probabilities.

It's going to be a little bit similar to what the probabilities of those directions that we are seeing on the weekly time frame. So I will give 60 percent, I'm giving 60 percent that the Bitcoin will have the price trajectory like this, right?

So even without pushing towards 79,000 dollars, we will push towards 90,000 dollars. The bigger move is going to be to the upside, even without getting rid of these lows and pushing down, okay? But 30 percent probability is that we will push down, liquidate that 79,000 dollars cluster, alright?

And then we will resume towards upside and still the big move is going to be to the upside towards the 90,000 dollars, alright? So if you are in a long position or if you are thinking about long position, I would definitely place my stop loss below at least 79,000 dollars to be saved from the cluster, maybe even a little bit below.

We know that 78,000 can be also hit without ruining the bullish market structure we are at right now still, alright? So we understand that we are creating the higher degree fifth wave, right? Which is a multi -wave structure, which means it's selling out itself into five small waves.

Here is the top of the first wave, right here, right? So we understand if the price action will start to reclaim in the 78,000 dollars from support into resistance, then the probabilities will increase that we will attack the top of the first wave and that the market will go into the price territory of the first and secondary wave.

And it increases the probability that the market structure is going to be ruined and that we are already changing the higher degree direction to the downside. But at this moment, until we can reclaim that 78,000 dollars, much higher probability is that we are still in the bullish market structure and the next big move is going to be to the upside before the higher degree correction, alright?

So these are the probabilities, 60 % like this, 30 % that we will liquidate towards 78,000 or 79,000 dollars and then push up well and only the 10 % probability, it doesn't make sense for the market makers to do it this way. But again, you don't know when some well just wakes up and starts thinking randomly and says, okay, today is not very good day, I don't feel very good, let me

sell some Bitcoin and you can just dump the price. That's the magic of market being irrational, right? So if you want to survive those irrational moments, these low probability moments, however that are making or breaking a trader, you need to be counting with black swans, right?

And that is why risk management and capital preservation is the key thing, and that's also why MyCryptoParadise is focusing mostly on capital preservation since 2016, and it's the reason why we are able to be on the market for so long and surviving, right?

Since 2016, because we are able to protect our capital during the uncertain times, during the volatile times, during the random times, during the black swan events, right? And because we are following our edge over and over again, during the winning streaks, we make much more money than what we lose during the losing streaks and everything is calculated, every risk we take is not random, we are not constantly in a state of

uncertainty. You have seen it in the beginning when I have shared with you the signal, before we enter the signal, we know exactly where we're going to get out if we're going to be wrong on our trade and when we're going to get out if we are correct on the trade.

And then once we are in a trade, we just follow our trading tactic. We keep on monitoring for some early invalidations to exit early, right? But we are just following our trading tactic, our trading strategy over and over again with certainty, right? So we know exactly how much we're going to lose if the worst case scenario happen and we know also how much we're going to make from the outliers when the

black swans will happen, however, for us in our plan. So we need to position ourselves to be able to profit as much as possible if the market is moving with us, with our ideas and limit our losses when it's moving against us, right?

That is why risk -revert is so important as well. So then really, when the market is moving with your direction, you can make as much money as possible, right? You maximize in your profits. And that's how professional poker players do it. Like just two hands during the night can really, really change the game completely, right?

Because you go heavy when you have heavy probabilities on your side and you're limiting your risk when the probabilities are against you. So let's take a look right now also. Yeah, this beautiful. I absolutely love this. The RSI, all right, very early sign, very beautiful sign.

The AI, the machine learning is absolutely exceptional that we have created for our RSI indicator right here. We actually call it MCP RSI Intelligence, because it's very intelligent. It created this bullish divergence itself, all right? And it gave us two points, which is amazing.

Early sign, two for a reversal. Like it's usually one or just none, but there is like a possibility of a reversal. But when you get two points, well, that's very bullish. That's very bullish for me at least. So beautifully explained by the AI, exaggerated bullish divergence, pride made an equal low, a double bottom while the RSI made a higher low, confirmed on closed candles does not repaint.

And this is backed by years, years of data. So it waited for the confirmation and then it beautifully gave us two bullish points and may hold a candle or two. This is usually a great sign of a reversal. All right. So for our timeframe, I would, I would probably not enter a short position.

The same thing I've told you in the previous video, right, I would still not enter a short position at this moment until the invalidations happen. And the invalidation is that we will break below our support and we will turn it into resistance and then continue to go lower.

All right. So ladies and gentlemen, this is what I'm watching right now in the market. Okay. On one hour time frame, stronger bullish, strongly bullish, three out of five as well. Absolutely exceptional. Yeah. So right now we are fighting with this VPVR. We have already tested that, tested that once, twice, right now we are attacking that for a third time.

And you know, every single resistance, it works like a wall basically, right? The more you push, the weaker it gets and then it breaks. Usually it's on the third, sometimes fourth time, given that we are already testing it right now for a third time and we are having kind of nice volume with this push.

It will break on this or on the next one. All right. If we will start breaking below this low, then I would start getting careful. But at this moment, like bulls are attacking this wall at this moment, this resistance, this low time frame resistance at $81,600 aggressively.

And we are having a bullish, bullish cross on the MACD on one of our time frames. So I would definitely not be playing against the bulls right now. So if you are in some aggressive short position, I would probably think twice about it.

All right. So on the medium time frame, I'm at on the lower time frame personally focusing on bullish trading tactics, okay, until I will get my invalidation. And yeah, there is much higher probability of pushing towards $90,000. So the higher probability is that the next big move is going to be to the upside, a 30 % probability like this that we will recreate that big cluster at $78,000, $78,000, $79,000.

And then still the big push is going to be to the upside. Well, and the lowest probability is that we will break and reclaim this support into resistance and the next big move is going to be to the downside. So that's it, ladies and gentlemen, is just probabilities, not certainties, right?

But given that if you are using some great system, great, great tactics, great. And you are applying those trading bullish trading tactics, bearish trading tactics within a great strategy that is focusing on money management, you have a perfect certainty even in this uncertain market.

So thank you so much for watching. I hope this helped. All right. If you have some questions, hit a message in the comment section below or write me on LinkedIn or connect with me on LinkedIn. I like LinkedIn a lot or on Twitter.

X X, right? I will see you there. Until then, take care, enjoy the rest of your day and I will see you again on Saturday. Cheers.