Can Bitcoin Reclaim $82K and Push to $99K?

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Bitcoin is [music] trying to reclaim our previous resistance level at $82,000. Will this attempt [music] succeed, opening a move towards $99,000, or will it fail and set up a sharp drop? Let's analyze the probabilities. [music] My [music] cryptoise. Hello ladies and gentlemen, Baras.

This is Smon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to hear. Today is a Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. So, Bitcoin is right now trying to reclaim the $82,000 level that previously worked as a resistance and right now we are trying to reclaim it and turn it into support.

It's being supported by this moving average trend line and VPVR volume profile plus the previous historic price action. As you can see, this was the top in May and right now we are trying from resistance turn it into a support. But this level is extremely important from the historic price action.

As you can see, previously it was working back in December as support. All right, after we have broken that level to the downside that zone, it worked as a resistance and then as a resistance as well. Right now we have broke above it with expanding volume.

All right, volume was increasing together with the price action. So that's healthy. All right, we are right now having retest of this level with declining volume which tells us all right the bears are actually not that strong. All right, and I can reveal to you because of that on the medium time frame neutral to slightly bullish actually.

Okay. So we will talk about that for our time frame and on the macro time frame I can also reveal to you that I am still bearish. So we went into depth. We went deep really into explaining why I still believe that before we can push towards the new alltime high that probability will be at $169,000.

I believe that we will first needs to break below the previous low 58,000 RS and touch this exchange of the hand zone that is being created by the upper boundary 55,000 lower boundary 44,000. We went into the mechanics and the kind of cyclical understanding why this is important to touch this liquidity pool.

So then we have enough power. We can create enough momentum to push above the previous high create the price discovery and touch that new autumn high level with probability that will be at around $169,000. So I will not repeat that. All right. I will just tell you that we since around 121,000 understand that we are in the hard degree secondary wave where the secondary wave is having a pattern of an expanded

flat AB and the C wave is a motive wave structure that means it sat itself into five smaller waves and I can tell you that it has not yet finished. So we have created 1 2 3 four. We are right now creating the fourth wave but the fifth wave from the guidelines of Elot wave and rules as well has not been finished just yet.

All right. So the price action is telling us there is much higher probability of touching like creating one more lower low on the weekly time frame than being able to start recovering right now and creating a new bull market. All right. So we went we went deep into explaining this weekly time frame more in the previous video.

So go watch the previous video if you haven't if you want to have a bigger understanding of what I am seeing right now in the market. So let me just repeat the probabilities all right of the price action and again we are working just with probabilities as a professional traders.

There is nothing certain in the market. But right now the highest probability is that the price action might look like that we will complete the lower degree fifth wave which will complete the higher degree C wave which will complete the ultra high degree fourth wave around 88 to $90,000 and then we'll start rejecting and breaking below the previous low $58,000.

So this is like 60% probability. 30% probability is that we will have this final fifth wave extended. All right, the fifth wave will be an extension. It will push us towards the 0.69 Fibonacci retracement level. All right, which is nicely conflanted with the gap of this VPVR volume profile schema right here and that means the price action will touch first $99,000.

All right. And then we will start rejecting and pushing towards the exchange of the hands zone. So that's a 30% probability and the 10% probability the lowest probability scenario is that we will have enough power to reclaim this resistance at $99,000 turn it into support and then if we will get a confirmation from the whales that they are actually reaccumulating higher rather than lower and the exchange of the hands zone is

happening higher not lower for some reason even though from like the the onchain perspective and like other data perspective that we are watching. This is like illogical, right? So, but it can happen. It can happen like the markets can be illogical. It can happen some things that nobody is expecting, right?

So, some fresh volume can be pushed into the market. Then the whales, the smart money will start to see that the global economy is already improving. So people will start going back into the market sooner. They are already coming back. All right? So right now is the best time to start properly positioning yourself into like trading strategies and tactics.

So it doesn't matter if it's going to go down or up. You saw in the previous video in the trading activity, we are at alltime low. And if you understand the cycles, of course, is the best time to start looking and getting back into the markets and looking for trading strategies and tactics during the trading activity being at all time low rather than when everybody is already in the market and trading

at all time high of trading activity. Right? What you have seen however with me in the previous video is also that more people are getting back to the market when they see that the Bitcoin prices are getting cheaper. Right? So we are following the trend where Bitcoin is going down and actually people are being more interested in Bitcoin rather than when it's going up right now.

It started back in February. Right? So again when we dumped there was a spike in Bitcoin search history on Google and when we are pushing to the upside there is no spike. All right. So we need to also understand the kind of trends to get back into the markets people more aggressively and faster.

And right now it suggests like the data that we were going through in the previous video that we will push to the downside we will start crashing more people will become interested into getting back into the markets faster. All right. So this is also decreasing the probability of pushing up reclaiming the $99,000 and turning it into support creating some base right here.

But it can happen right like the market makers can do it that way that some new flow of money will be pushed into the market then we will start sideways movement right here a lot of bullish news will be injected into the market together with that if it's going to nicely confluence with global economy improving more people will have money to spend to risk wave right and we can resume the bull

market at a higher prices all right but at this moment it just seems like that this is the lowest probability senior. So one more time, let me repeat it. 60% probability that we will reject at around 88 to $90,000 and we will start pushing towards this exchange of the hand zone.

30% that we will push towards $99,000 and then reject and 10% the lowest probability scenario that we will start pushing towards $99,000. We will create enough momentum to break above the 0.69 69 Fibonacci retracement level and then the bulls will be and strong enough to defend this level turn it into a support and continue to trend higher from the price action development perspective and from the other data that we are watching

this is lowest probability scenario and illogical right now for the smart money. So ladies and gentlemen this is just very fast what we are watching on the weekly time frame. Let's zoom in. All right let's zoom in on the daily time frame. So let's take a look what we are doing [clears throat] right here with the price action breaking above the important level 82,000.

There is we can see that the RSI also broke above the moving average RSI trend line and right now it's trying to retest it. Okay, we can see that on our MCP intelligence RSI indicator. All right, that prop prior has access to already.

We see that this is actually bullish. All right. We have not necessarily created a bullish divergence on this move. All right. But we have not created some strong bearish divergence neither just yet. Okay. So we have went into the overbought area. We have got rejected once but it was without first reclaiming this moving average RS trend line and the AI intelligence that we have injected into this indicator knows and understands that.

That is why we have one tick in bullish for this indicator RSI. Okay. If we will reclaim it and the tick will start looking to the upside, it will put another bullish point to this RSI indicator and it will increase the probability that the price action can continue to go even higher.

All right, but from overall perspective on the daily time frame there can be some nice high probability trade setup upon more confirmations that we can we can defend this $82,000 level. There will be some possibility of create some nice long position where we will be able to create high probability trade setup with great riskreward given that we will be pushing towards $9,000.

That will be my first resistance level and I will explain to you why from the medium time frame perspective with last target around that $99,000. Well, it can be around five% versus 19% which is not a bad riskreward, but for the first target that would need to be put at least from my perspective to around $90,000.

So that's five versus 8. It's one to one. It's not bad. All right. It's not that bad, but really I would need to get a lot of confirmations right here. Right here. And if I will pull a trigger, you will know about it inside of Paris 7 VIP.

I will probably not put a lot of risk on it. Not much position size. Given that higher probability play is still going to be on the bearish side, right? because that will allow us to create a nice trade that is being supported by the weekly bearish price action and also the riskreward will be much nicer from a swing plus trading perspective given that the last target we can place into this exchange

of the hand zone that is much lower than the possibly invalidation level that you'll be placing at some other important levels. Right? So this is from the daily time frame perspective also altcoins. All right, we can take a look for example on the bitcoin dominance and we can see that we are playing with this support.

Okay, and the bitcoin dominance is just unable so far to break below it. All right, of course if it's going to break below it, it will be very nice because more money will start flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins. But at this moment given that a lot of altcoins are hitting a resistance for example with Paris and VIPs we have hit on our signal soy the last resistance that we were watching all

right so we have hit our target for 56% on 2x leverage and that was the last resistance that we were watching for this altcoin okay so given that altcoins are hitting their resistances all right very strong resistances a bitcoin dominance is hitting It's a support [snorts] is just increasing the probability of a reversal for that Bitcoin dominance and that will mean that like the volume from altcoins, the money from altcoins will

start to flow back into Bitcoin which might support the final push to the upside and that takes me to why I am more bullish on the 4hour time frame to the upside. So it can support the final fifth wave creation given that this is not fives right here but we have got an extended third wave.

All right. Right now we are creating a fourth wave that might have finished already and the final fifth wave might push us towards $90,000. All right. So definitely if it's going to be driven the final fifth wave all right with volume from altcoins that means money from altcoins is a flowing back into the bitcoin it will be visible on the bitcoin dominance because the bitcoin dominance will be going up together with

the bitcoin price that will tell us all right no new money is entering into the market anymore. This final push is being driven by the volume withdraw from the altcoins which is increasing the probability that this is really just a final push before we will start seeing the rejection.

All right. And then it will support the 30% probability scenario of the price action looking something like this. So why am I more bullish? I'm natural to bullish on 4hour time frame. What is the reason for that? So there are other reasons. We will take a look at this bullish divergences on the momentum indicators in a minute.

But another one is first of all the funding crates. Okay, the funding crates on Bitcoin for a first time since very long time. All right, is right now going into short squeeze probability. We can see that on our funding crates on our website my crypto paradise.com.

We can see that the funding crates are getting negative. All right. What does it mean? that not the longs are being crowded as it was uh before but right now shorts are getting crowded. So what does it mean? A lot of short positions are being opened right now at this consolidation.

A lot of people a lot of people think that Bitcoin will continue to push lower. That is why they are entering short positions. We can see it on the funding craze. They are getting negative. That means shorts are getting crowded. All right. which makes the shorts vulnerable and it's given a room for a possible short squeeze.

It's just 10% probability, right? But so far for the short squeeze, but we need to be careful and we need to be monitoring the funding crates live, right? Because on the daily time frame, it's already 16% short squeeze probability. All right. So shorts are getting crowded continuously right now since the beginning of this consolation actually more positions are being opened on the short side which is making the shorts vulnerable.

But let's understand also why because when you open a short position right you have some stop- loss and some liquidation level. If you have not set up your stop loss basically somewhere somewhere you have also a liquidation level. So when this stop loss of yours if you have created a short position with leverage is going to be hit or the liquidation level for that sake once that's hit right the short positions

gets closed right and you will need to buy the contracts back that's happening automatically you don't need to do it manually it happens automatically when your shorts is closed it automatically needs to buy the contracts back which pushes the price higher automatically right and when we have the controls crowded.

There is multiple of these levels, right? Stop losses and liquidation levels. And basically then it creates this kind of domino effect if we have enough of them, right? And that will help to push the price higher and higher and higher which creates the path of least resistance on the upside.

And again as a professional traders we are always trying to search for the path of least resistances because we can assume that the smart money will want to push that price into that path of least resistance because they will be able to make money on that easier.

Right? So right now what we can see also together with the funding crates is that the momentum the bearish momentum and the bearish selling pressure that is being created by the short positions is actually being absorbed. Okay, how do we see that? Well, it's it's quite easy to spectate that.

All right, first of all, we can see on the daily time frame that on the price action outside the volume is declining, right? So it's not a real volume and we are watching that on the spot. So it's not a real volume that is pushing the price lower and when you have some real volume that's coming from spot and it's increasing the probability that there is going to be a continuation in

that direction because spot is being traded by smart money. Smart money usually has some have some has some basically insider info, right? So he might assume okay there is much higher probability if the smart money is positioning themselves this way that there is going to be a continuation in that direction right so we don't see a new money entering to support this move all right what do we see however that future

like leverage is entering all right so that's dump money right that's retail money usually they don't have any inside information they are working and trading based on feelings right So and we can see that this selling pressure created by the leverage is actually being absorbed.

Okay. So how do we see it? We see a lot of effort on the momentum, right? So a lot of effort on the momentum, a lot of aggressiveness. So we can see that we have created lower low on the MACD histogram. All right.

From the previous bearish pressure created right here, the bearish momentum. So lower low but higher low on the price action. Okay, higher low on the price action and it's being supported also by the RSI. We have created this hidden bullish divergence on the RSI as well.

Okay, so we can see a lot of momentum getting in. So a lot of people are trying to push the price lower but somebody's absorbing that selling pressure. That is why unlike the indicator the price is not able to break below the previous low right and it's creating a higher low.

So somebody is absorbing all of that selling pressure and given that we understand that this selling pressure is being created by the leverage by futures right because we are watching the funding crates and they are getting negative right so we can see that who is absorbing the selling pressure is probably the smart money.

Okay, which is increasing the probability that the price action will not continue to go lower, right? And we will see a reversal. Obviously, this is just a probability, not a certainty. From the RSI perspective, we are right now at around 50 in the middle zone.

If we will lose this 50, we might go even lower. But you can see we are already having one bullish point out of out of five. So, it's not that bullish, right? that we need to pay attention to this. So I wouldn't like to be in a short position right now.

So it's increasing also the probability of the price action development structure and that gets me to why I am neutral to slightly more bullish than bearish on the 4hour time frame because all of this info is actually increasing the probability that this third wave is an extension and we are right now creating the fourth wave that should hold above the 0.61 61 Fibonacci retracement level and nicely confluence with the 1.272 Fibonacci

retracement level taken from this section right here price action right here and after this fourth wave is finished we can begin the fifth wave that can push us towards that $90,000. Okay. So this is right now high probability. You can see also on the volume right here it's decreasing as the price going down.

So the participation is actually much lower than the participation on the move to the upside and it's increasing the probability that right now we are creating the fourth wave and then we will have the fifth wave that might take us towards $90,000. All right.

So right now this is the highest probability scenario for me at this moment and right here I might be looking for some short positions. If you're in Paris on VIP you will know about if I pull a trigger all right on this and if I get enough confirmations that the market can start push to the upside and I will be able to find a nice riskreward high probability trade setup.

I might even take a long position on the medium time frame that with a final target at around $99,000. Just if we will push there, I will just take more profit. But once we start hitting this resistance, I'll already be securing my position.

Definitely. Yeah. Okay. So, ladies and gentlemen, right now, you know exactly what I'm watching and I wish you great rest of the weekend. I will keep you updated again on Tuesday. Yeah. So, until then, take care. Trade with a professional trading strategy. Focus on your plan.

Focus on your system. Trade safe. And I will see you again on Tuesday. Cheers. Calm breath. Clear eyes. Work done now. Right. No rush. No [music] drag. Right time for snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. [music] Clean set up.