In short: Simon says Bitcoin rose about 15% and cleared roughly $1.74 billion in shorts, pushing to $72,000 into strong resistance. The ParadiseTeam still targets $79,000, but expects a fourth-wave pause first. With the fear and greed index above 80, Simon favors taking profit over fresh longs or shorts.
Can Bitcoin actually hit the $79,000 target?
Track it live: our live crypto funding rates updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
The ParadiseTeam still sees $79,000 as the target, thanks to heavy confluence at that level. Simon calls it the C-wave inside an ending diagonal. But he stresses “might, might not.” A fifth wave could carry price there only after a fourth-wave pause plays out first.
One month ago Simon flagged $61,000 as the highest-probability daily bottom. Bitcoin held and pushed up. He recorded this Thursday breakdown as part of the ongoing Bitcoin analysis series. The path to $79,000 stays probability-based, not a promise.
Why is $72,000 such a strong resistance?
Simon points to a confluence of two Fibonacci levels, the 1.618 and the 0.618 from prior wave structure. That stacks strong resistance around $72,000 to $72,500. Bitcoin is testing it now. The fear and greed index sits above 80, hitting 89.5, which is extreme greed territory.
The daily momentum reading is nearing 80 too. Simon notes that 80 lined up with chart resistance often works as a top signal. He also watches the funding board. On August 12th funding neared plus 10% and price dropped sharply.
Funding sits at plus 10% again now. Over the past year, every touch of plus 10% brought a liquidation the other way. That is why Simon leans cautious at these levels.
Should you buy, sell, or short Bitcoin here?
Simon is clear: fresh longs and new shorts both look risky here. Momentum stays healthy with no bearish divergence, so shorting into strength makes little sense. But greed is extreme and price sits at resistance. His preference is taking some profit on existing long positions.
The ParadiseTeam took full profits on a Bitcoin scalp for around 269%, using their position-size strategy. They are nearing a second target on a separate altcoin long. Simon frames this through risk-first position sizing, not chasing entries.
His rule is simple. Risk first, profit second, and do not trade from greed. With the crowd already positioned long, the reversal risk now outweighs more upside chase.
What levels and signals is Simon watching next?
Simon believes the lower-timeframe third wave has finished, so a fourth-wave consolidation looks likely. He wants $66,500 to hold and eyes $69,000 as fresh support. On signals, he tracks open interest against spot CVD to see when retail liquidity returns.
The third wave started at $62,500, the key level Simon flagged. As long as that held, he called the structure bullish. He expects the fourth-wave dip to stay shallow, since the earlier pullback was deep. Fourth waves usually alternate.
After that pause, a fifth wave could push toward $79,000. Simon still plans to sell his position trade near $79,000. He might sell earlier, or not sell at all, depending on the live tape.
Frequently asked questions
What is Bitcoin’s price target in this video?
The ParadiseTeam targets $79,000, based on heavy confluence at that level. Simon frames it as a fifth-wave move inside a larger ending diagonal. He is honest that it might not reach there. A fourth-wave pause likely comes first, and he plans to sell his position trade near $79,000.
Why does Simon say not to short Bitcoin now?
Because momentum is strong across multiple timeframes with no bearish divergence yet. Simon argues shorting into that kind of strength makes little sense. The bulls are in full power. He would rather take profit on existing longs than fight the trend with a fresh short position.
What does the plus 10% funding level mean here?
Simon watches funding on the ParadiseTeam board. On August 12th, funding neared plus 10% and Bitcoin dropped sharply soon after. Now funding sits at plus 10% again. Over the past year, every touch of that level brought a liquidation the other way, so he stays cautious.
Which support levels matter if Bitcoin pulls back?
Simon flags $62,500 as the key level that launched the third wave. He does not want $66,500 broken, calling it important support, though still neutral until retested. He also eyes $69,000, which flipped from resistance to potential support. A shallow fourth-wave dip near there would keep the structure intact.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned. It is what was said, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
In the past few days, Bitcoin [music] rose by around 15%. We have liquidated around $1.74 billion worth of short positions. But right now, we are already seeing [music] that some holders are selling their bitcoins. So, the question is, can we [music] reach our target $79,000 before starting to see a reversal?
Let's analyze the [music] probabilities. >> [music] >> My cryptoiseise. >> Hello ladies and gentlemen. This is Son from Market to Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. So previously it was like one month ago.
We talked about that $61,000 is with the highest probability the bottom on the daily time frame for Bitcoin and that we will see a nice movement towards $79,000. Currently, Bitcoin is right now at $72,000 and we are pushing into some resistance that we will talk about.
Okay. So, as you can see with Paris VIPs, we have been reaccumulating our Bitcoin that we were selling some of our Bitcoin that we were previously selling at 109 and $121,000 around these levels back in 2025. As you can see, we are still expecting from weekly time frame perspective, from the macro time frame perspective, that before we can start pushing towards the new all-time high $169,000 that I believe that the major
bull market will start in the mid of 2027. We still need to revisit with the highest probability $44,000. And henceforth, we have predicted that the fifth wave will be moving inside of an ending diagonal, right? ending diagonal as uh like this zigzag five sub waves all of them some of them will be other corrective mode waves but take a look at this the first wave finished right here and then we said
that with the highest probability we will create the secondary wave that will take us up to $79,000 why $79,000 because there is loads of confluences at that level right and then in the previous video the more recent videos we also understood that there is going to Before we will start pushing to the upside with the highest probability, we will liquidate the over leverage long positions, right?
And then we will start pushing to the upside. And in the last video, we actually understood what was happening during that liquidation, right? So the open interest went up. A lot of people went into a long position, but the sentiment were bearish. So they started to close their long positions and we were also looking at CVD.
However, at the same time, the long positions got closed. So that put selling pressure on the market, but the whales, the smart money absorbed all of that selling pressure on spot exchange, right? So spot positioning went in, leverage went out, long leverage went out.
Beautiful exchange of the hands. The smart money position themselves like for the bullish side. And then we have got that push to the upside with parallel VIPs. We have created some long Bitcoin sculp position on Bitcoin and we have taken all of our take profits already with our position size strategy for around 269% and we also are right now nearing on our sky altcoin long position target two.
So the most important stuff however is the positioning that we have done at the reaccumulation the position trade that we have done at $61,000. you know that we are still looking at selling that around $79,000. We might be selling that earlier. We are already doing some actions inside of Paradis and VIP.
If you are in the inner circle, you already know what we are preparing for. And right now we need to understand that we are in the movement of that Cwave. We are on that C-wave formation. We know that with the highest probability is going to be that impulse, right?
We already understood that one month ago. That means it going to subdivide itself into five small waves. Right now we can see that on the daily time frame it seems like the price action is looking the way that we have concluded the first wave right here.
Secondary wave finished right here. And since right now we have got this nice movement finally after because it's also the summer is ending right. So we always get near end of the summer some big movements. But this year it came kind of early and uh we need to understand that the context since the summer is ending right and the big boys are about to position themselves for the winter market.
We are already having some big moves in the market right so liquidity is returning which is great. So given that this was very impulsive movement with with nice momentum, nice volume, a lot of participation there, we can assume that with dice probability this is actually going to be a third wave.
All right. So the third wave is not yet finished in my opinion because we understand that the third wave subdivides itself into five smaller waves as well. Since if this was this wave was a secondary wave, it subdivided itself into five smaller waves which was this nice triangle.
Right? So the third wave started right here with its first smaller wave. So 1 2 3 I believe we will begin to have a fourth wave and then fifth wave. All right. And that will finish the third wave. then we will create the hard degree fourth wave and then the fifth wave might take us towards $79,000 might but might not that is why as a professional traders we need to monitor the
market 24/7 all the time to see what is actually happening in the real time right so as you know I'm doing my best to keep you updated here on YouTube for free three times a week Tuesday Thursday and Saturday so take a look at this momentum is healthy, right?
We are not having any bearish divergence just yet. That is why it's not really smart idea to right now take some short position. Taking some profits on some of your long positions definitely, but shorting in my opinion not good. When the momentum is strong on multiple time frames, when it's strong, it's not slowing down.
Why would you create a short position? Right? The bulls are right now in full power. So we need to however understand that we are at confluences of two Fibonacci levels. All right 1.618 and 0.618 from previous wave structure. So very strong confluence at the level around 72 to $72,500.
So we are right now at very strong resistance which also suggest that even though we know that a lot of retail is right now feeling a lot of greed, right? They feeling greedy. They feel this kind of fear of missing out because our fear and greed index is actually above 80.
All right, it went max. It was uh at 89.5 which is extreme. So finally we have broke from the summer consolidation as you can see since July well June already we have been consolating between 60 and 40. Right now on the daily time frame we are breaking above this and that for me means all right we need to change our trading tactic right now it's no longer a sideways movement it's no
longer sideways movement so right now we need to start positioning ourselves into trends I do believe that in the market we will start having some bigger moves this is just the beginning and I'm not I'm not saying like bigger moves only to one side I'm I'm talking about like bigger moves all right short side and upside as well.
So because you understand that the market is not moving just like in flat line right we are having like waves and right now we had during the summer very small movements but right now I do believe that this is telling us okay it's about to change again winter is coming people are about to start trading again we will have bigger moves right now and that's why inside of par 7VIP internally we
are changing our trading tactics in anticipation that this is just the beginning which is amazing right if you like big moves in the market that's a great market for you. So right now the daily time frame is nearing 80. You know that if we can confluence the number 80 with some important resistance on the chart, it's usually working as a top signal, right?
Usually you should not only be aware that there might be a reversal. So you definitely should not be pushing the buy button because the risk of having a reversal is much bigger right now than continuation since a lot of market participants are already positioned right.
So right now fresh long positions are not probably a very smart idea to do so. And since we also understand that we are having multi-time frame confluence and that we are really feeling the greed or multiple time frames, it's actually a good idea to start taking some profits.
Right? If you take a look at the funding history previously, right, in August 12th, few days ago, when we neared the number plus 10%, we had a sharp drop, right? Right now we are again at that plus 10%. All right. And as you can see in the past year every time we have touched the plus 10% then we have saw a liquidation in the opposite direction.
All of these tools are available for free on our website markettoparadise.com. So we are monitoring that in the with the paradise team 247. If you are not in prod where we are sharing with you our personal trade setups with clear entry and exit targets monitor this because this is extremely important and it's going to help you in your trading decisions.
That's why we have created this right. So it helps you in your trading decisions. The the more data you have the better you can manipulate with probability points right. So the more probability points you have on bearish or bullish side the heavier you can get into the position.
And first of all the better probability you have if the market is going to continue to go to the upside or continue to go to the downside or we will have reversal from downside to the upside or and vice versa. Right? So it's very helpful.
It's very very helpful. So use it and take a look at this. So since we understand that and that we are also at strong resistance it's actually increasing the probabilities that indeed we are right now finishing the third wave. Okay. and we will have some kind of consolidation the fourth wave right so as we can see right here on the lower time frame so the third wave started right right here at
$62,500 which was the key level that we are talking about and I told I told you that as long as we can hold that $62,500 this structure also on the medium time frame is still bullish and as you can see it held perfectly and I do believe that we have started the third wave from here and now we need to calculate because the third wave is an impulse five sub waves.
So first happened right here secondary that was the retest right and right now I do believe that we are already finishing the third wave right. So we have created 1 2 and then 1 2 3 4 5 I do believe that right now the lower time frame third wave is finished and we will be seeing a consolidation inside of fourth wave.
Doesn't mean that we will see a reversal. All right, complete reversal. But I do believe that the upside is going to slow down. All right, it's now higher probability. So for that, I will be looking definitely I don't want to see this level right here uh $66,500 to be broken.
Okay, this is going to be very important support and I'm not I'm going to turn it into neutral since we have not yet retested that and so it's it's not completely confirmed as a support zone but this level will be working as a support for sure.
All right. So $66,500 ladies gentlemen this is very important level for me but I don't believe that since the momentum is really beautiful and the participation on the volume is having higher highs as well that uh during this price action to the upside that we will have such a strong correction.
I do believe that it's going to be a bit more shallow. All right, since the lower time frame secondary wave was very very deep, as you can see, it went almost to the bottom of the previous first wave. This was the first wave.
Secondary wave will almost went almost to the bottom of the previous first wave. And fourth wave is always an alternation of the secondary wave. So yeah, I do believe that this is going to be a little bit little bit more shallow and henceforth I'm already going to be looking at the level of $69,000 for a support.
As you can see, as a resistance, it was already working, right? We have slowed down the move to the upside at that $69,000 that previously it was our resistance. Slowed down, slowed down. So it's already we can see that this level is very very important.
So this is going to be working as a support. So this might be a nice level for the fourth wave and then we will have a continuation with the highest probability to the upside and we will confirm the the fifth wave which will finish the hard degree third wave and then we will have the hard degree fourth wave basically correction and then the fifth wave might take us towards that $79,000 target.
All right, this price action might happen a little bit differently. But right now, this is just the highest probability from the price action perspective how the price action is going to unfold itself. What I will be definitely, you already know that I'm planning to sell around $79,000.
I might sell earlier. I might not sell at all. All right. What really worked nicely was the open interest versus CVD. Right. So, we can see that we will be monitoring that for sure. We are monitoring like a lot of stuff but during this market cycle like you always need to understand that the market is having different cycles and different indicators are working in different market cycles.
So you need to monitor everything and then you need to pay attention to the things that are actually working. So right now we can see that since we are ending summer big boys are coming back. So watching spot versus futures spot CVD versus what's happening with the open interest is very important because the big boys needs they need the liquidity from the retail right so it's very important to watch the open
interest and cumulative volume delta on the spot exchange so far we don't see that it's slowing down the trend is still there of what we have seen already from here right so the open interest is still closing it didn't find any support right at the previous low.
So the next important level is going to be around this right here. All right. So I can I can mark it like this. So if this is going to work as a as a support then what I want to see for some aggressive selling or short positions I want to see open interest increasing right again which will tell me all right so the retail is getting back into the positions because right
now they are just getting liquidated right so what's going to happen after we basically reset everything the fear and greed index the funding craze etc I want to see all right the retail is getting positive again they are really starting to enter a lot of long positions and I want to see how they are getting the liquidity by the CVD actually returning to the downside.
Right? So once I will see that the big boys are taking the profit and they are selling on spot it will be visible on the cumulative volume delta and once I will see that the leverage is picking that up. Okay. So it's usually happen in the way that the [snorts] open interest starts right and the whales just follow.
So when they will see all right so we are already getting liquidity from the retail to like dump our bags that's where the CVD will start to return in right so once the retail starts creating the buy orders over leverage long positions etc I want to see that it's being absorbed and I will see I will see that by the price action slowing down and the cumulative volume delta going down while
the open in open interest is going up and I will I will confirm that they are entering the long positions by looking at our funding crates. Okay. So ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated. Again, right now you know exactly what's happening and you know exactly what we are watching.
So thank you for watching. Uh I hope that you are learning by these videos and I will keep you updated again on Saturday. As you know I'm recording for you every Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. So until then take care. trade with a professional trading strategy.
Focus on risk first, profit second. Don't be greedy. Don't be ped. There are like a a lot of people don't understand that for beginners and even for some like advanced traders, there are only two positions. All right? And two positions are it's not long or short.
It's actually either I have too much on or I have too little on. Okay? So when you are at the right position, you feel not satisfied enough, right? You say to yourself like, "Oh my god, okay, so I've caught the direction nicely, but if I would put much more into this trade." So you're always this satisfied.
But and when when the trade goes against you, you are like, "Oh my god, I I have too much on. If I would only not put that much of uh into this position." So you need to understand this is not going to happen to you anymore if you have strict rules that you are working with.
You have strict risk management matrix that you are working with. You have strict probability points based on your analysis that you are working with and based on that you are risking and that you are just following your plan. Then these kind of emotional cycles that are happening in the short term only because your head is only telling you this is the only opportunity.
this is the only opportunity cuz it's really focus only on what's happening right now the short term. So if you also start shifting your mindset into the long term these kind of biases that exploit the most of the uh noob and even advanced traders they stop happening to you and then these whales and these market makers will stop making money on you.
Okay. So this is our goal since 2016. We are trying to make sure that the market is being much more professional crypto space, much more risk focused, much more process focused so we don't give so easily to these whales our hard-earned money. Right?
So ladies and gentlemen, thank you for watching. I will catch you on the next one on Saturday. Cheers. >> Calm, [music] clear now. No rush, no [music] drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. M [music] clean set
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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