Can Bitcoin Reach $90K After Whale Buying? Simon’s Read

Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.

Crypto whales are buying Bitcoin aggressively. In the past 24 hours, they have accumulated over $380 million worth of Bitcoin. [music] So, does it mean that Bitcoin can push towards $90,000? Now, let's analy [music] the probabilities. [music] Hello, ladies and gentlemen, Barascal. This is Simon from My Crypto Paradise.

Welcome back. It's great to hear. Today is Tuesday and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So in this video we will go through weekly just a little bit. We will recapitulate what we went through in the previous one.

Then we will take a look on the daily and we will finish with 4hour time frame where we are creating a special pattern that is increasing a probability in one direction. So let's have a look first of all what's going on on the weekly time frame.

I will not spend too much time here since we have went through it in the previous videos quite a lot. We went into depth on the weekly. So let's just break down what is happening with the highest probability. We will get rejected at around 88 to 90,000.

So around this resistance and we will start pushing to the downside. That's the highest probability 60% probability on the scenario. 30% probability is that we will be able to reclaim this resistance and we will continue to pump towards $99,000 and this fifth wave is going to be an extended one that will finish here at that $99,000 at that 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.

We will conclude and finish the C-wave and the hard degree fourth wave and then we will be able to push towards the exchange of the hand zone that will mark the high time frame bottom and with the highest probability afterwards we will be able to push into the price discovery rally that with the highest probability will mark the next high at $169,000 and the least probable scenario the one that I put

to it only 10% probability is that we will be able to break above and reclaim the $99,000 and we will continue to pump higher and we will from here without breaking the previous low at $58,000 we'll be able to continue towards the new alltime high that I presume is going to be in the next bull market at $169,000.

So only 10% probability because of the things that I have described in the previous videos is if you have not watched it definitely go and watch it so you understand why we are giving the probability points to each of this scenario as we give it right so on the weekly time frame I'm still bearish since basically 109 and $121,000 as you remember we have been bearish on the weekly time frame since

the top all right since the end of the bull bull market that finished already right here back in 2025 and I'm still and then bearish because of the things that I have told you in the previous videos. So let's right now shift our focus on the daily time frame.

We will also take a look what's happening in this video with the funding crates. All right, this is going to be important to understand. We will also take a look what's happening with the whales and in consideration what the whales are doing. It's always good to understand what the majority of people are doing.

So we will take a look at the sentiment around the crowds. So on the daily time frame, however, first of all, we need to understand that we are trying to reclaim the previous high that was created on the daily time frame at around $82,000.

All right, back in May. And right now we are trying to turn it into a support. So what's bullish about this reclaim that cannot be confirmed just yet. But what's bullish is that we can see that on the breakout as we were breaking above this important level that previously was working as a resistance that $82,000 we were increasing the the volume was following the price action.

There was no divergence. So it's very important to always pay attention to the dog that didn't bark, right? Something that's missing. So what's missing is divergence and that's actually making this breakout healthy. Okay. On the retest of the level that previously worked as a resistance as we are trying to turn it into a support.

What the volume is doing is actually that with the price action going down the volume is fading. All right. So the participation on the bearish side is declining. All right. which is increasing the probability that this level $82,000 will hold. All right, because so far we can see that the bears are not strong enough in order for them to have this kind of continuation.

However, what decreased the potential for this breakout to continue much higher was the bearish divergence that we have witnessed right here on the MACD. All right, there's a clear divergence, a higher high on the price action, lower high on the MACD, and it told us that the bullish momentum fade and there wasn't enough power for the bulls to continue to push higher.

Right now, we can assume that this is actually part of the pattern that we are watching. And since on the 4hour time frame, there's a high probability that we are actually creating a fourth wave. this momentum that decreased with this high. All right, that actually makes sense given that this was actually a hard degree third wave of our impulse that subdivide itself into five smaller waves, right?

1 2 3 fourth and potential fifth wave might push us towards $90,000 from the 4hour time frame perspective. Okay. Then we have the perspective from the weekly time frame which is however lower only 30% probability that we can have the final fifth wave which is a motive wave structure right it subat itself into five smaller waves and it's also why did I went into the MCP3 university because here we have actually

restructured that a little bit with the help of the AI right now you can learn very nicely all right so for example if you want to learn Elot wave right you Just click here or you can type whatever you want. And basically it gives you a clear structure on how to go step by step.

Yeah. Because a lot of people are trying to learn something and they jump into a topic they don't understand. They get burned out and they don't want to learn because they think that it's too complex. Right? So here with the help of AI it always gives you structure if you want to learn something how to continue step by step.

And given that we have been creating those articles for years now, it gives you a clear structure how to read these articles like what to read first, what second. So basically you can learn step by step. It's it's really helpful. It's really helpful.

you know that we are also preparing this MCP master class because theory is one thing but if you want to be able to see it on the charts afterwards and really use it then not only theory is important but also practice is important and that's what the MCP masterass is going to be about but this is already a huge chunk that will help you to really understand the basics of the Elot

wave and then you can practice it yourself on your charts. So definitely give it a try. And right now we can see right here on the elot wave structure uh we can see the patterns right and what we can see is that the impulse subdivides itself into five smaller waves right and the fifth wave is also a motive wave structure.

That means it subdivides itself into five small waves as well. That's why I'm doing 1 2 3 4 5 sequence right here because you need to understand that it might be extended. All right, the final fifth wave might be extended and if it's going to be it will push us towards 99,000.

Henceforth that would mean that on the 4hour time frame this five waves would be only it wouldn't be the final fifth wave. All right, which is right now however with the highest probability that it's going to be. But if it's going to be an extended one, the five waves that we are seeing at this moment will be just the fifth five waves of the hard degree first wave and then will come

the secondary wave, third wave, fourth wave and the final fifth wave of that hard degree fifth might take us towards that $99,000. As you know, this is just 30% probability that this tenure will play out like this. But as a promotional traders, we always need to be prepared for everything.

So if we will right now push higher we will understand okay we are creating the fifth wave but then what's important is going to be to watch how we are pushing to the downside is it going to be in a corrective mode wave pattern you know that we have nine corrective mode wave patterns right so if it's going to be in a corrective mode wave patterns it will be a high probability

that we are actually creating only the secondary wave and then the next third wave higher will come okay however if we will start pushing downside in a motive wave structure, right? And the first wave might be a leading diagonal or an impulse. All right, five wave structure.

Anyway, we will understand, okay, we are changing the trend. Okay, and the next bigger trend will take us much lower. All right, so it's very important to watch the charts live. So right now what I'm telling you right here is just from the perspective we are watching at this moment.

What we are seeing on the medium time frame is that we are creating the final fourth wave that might have a shape of a triangle. I see the subwaves clearly A B CDE E that is the structure of contracting triangle right and right now it seems like we are confirming that.

However, what I don't like at this moment is the breakout because it's on a fade in volume. So we need to be we need to be careful for enough confirmations that we can turn right now this resistance into a support. If we will and we start pushing higher it will increase the probability that we are about to start the final fifth wave.

All right. What can also increase the probability is right now the structure of the price action with which we are pushing to the upside. So at this time we can see we have created one two and right now we might be creating a third wave.

Okay. If it's going to push us above the end of the Dwave, there's will be very high probability that this is a beginning of a motive wave structure. Then we will have a fourth wave and then final fifth wave and then that this is going to be a secondary wave and the next big high degree third wave will going to be again to the upside and it will increase the probability that

we will start pushing towards $90,000 on the 4hour time frame. All right. And with the structure of the price action then we will understand. All right. So, so far we have created 1, two, three. There there is going to be fourth and final fifth wave might take us towards 1.618.

A little bit harder than that $90,000 which is at this time the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around $95,000. So for all of this is very important to watch live the price action and that's exactly what we are doing with the Paradise team since 2016.

We are monitoring the crypto markets 24/7. What's increasing the probability that this is a corrective wave structure? Fourth wave is on the 4hour time frame the decline in volume. Okay. So if this would be beginning of some motive wave structure and we would be changing the trend from upside to the downside usually it's visible on the volume.

Okay, that basically we are picking up the strength on the direction where the trend is going to continue. But right now we can see the opposite. Right? So we were pushing to the upside as you can see we were creating higher highs on the price action higher highs on the volume.

As we are pushing to the downside and we creating lower highs you can see that we are creating lower highs on the volume as well. So the participation through the outside is not that strong. All right which doesn't really suggest that the bears are in control right now does it?

So do you want to be playing with the people that are in control or with the people that are not in control? me I always want to be on the side of the stronger group and right now the stronger group on the medium time frame at least are the bulls still okay we can see that we have perfectly defended that 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level support that we were spectating in the previous

video which was confluenced also with the 1.272 272. So nice tight zone right here. It was like beautifully respected and I like it. Okay, you can see that jumping from that support we have went up with volume as well. So that there was a nice reaction which increasing the strength of this support and decreasing the probability of this support broken to the downside.

There is couple of things more things that I'm watching on the momentum indicators right here. But let me let me first shift your focus to the daily time frame. So on the momentum indicators here we can see that there is some kind of formation of bearish divergence on the MACD histogram.

Right? And we can see also the same thing on the RSI indicator. Right? The RSI indicator we have injected this one with AI. It's our MCP RSI intelligence prop paraser already have access to it. Okay. And as you can see here the AI very nicely showed us that we are creating and we have got confirmation for a bearish divergence.

All right. So on the daily time frame we have created a higher high but on the RSI indicator we have created lower high. Okay. At this moment for this indicator the RSI on the daily time frame we can see that we are bearish.

But how much bearish this indicator is right now? Not much, right? Out of five points, we only have one of five probability points. As you can see, more points, stronger reading. So right now the reading is not that strong. It's going to get stronger if we will be able to reclaim the moving average RSI trend line from below.

I mean, so here we have got a breakout. Right now we are trying to retest it. If that's going to be successful retest, another point we will get and that it will increase the probability that we will continue to push the momentum down.

All right, which will suggest that the price action might break below the $82,000. However, context is always important. So, okay, we have one bearish point probability point on the RSI indicator, but are we getting like what is the context? Like we can see that this with the highest probability is not the beginning of some impulse given that we have understood the structure right we also don't see a bearish cross from the

MACD right here from the MACD lines we are trying but this might be clearly just a retest of the breakout right so nothing bearish about that and since we understand that this bearish divergence came at the top of the third wave is decreasing the probability that this is reversal signal.

All right. And that we will start pushing to the downside. More bearish points might point to towards like changing the bias, right? But at this moment, this alone, this classic bearish divergence alone is not satisfactory enough for me to enter some aggressive short positions on the daily time frame.

All right. So that's important. We also understand that we are jumping from that important support which is covered by the moving average trend line and VPVR as well. So definitely if I would be turning bearish I really want to see that the first wave potential first wave if we are wrong in calculation of the price action development in this section.

So if this would be a first wave I definitely would like to see and the first waves usually would push below important supports. So at this moment we can see it's not happening. Henceforth we are not putting too much importance to this bearish signal on the daily time frame and I'm waiting for more confirmations in order for me to push this zone and turn it into into green zone.

So that would uh mean that I'm treating this as a support again and it would create another nice opportunities trading opportunities for me on the daily time frame. Yeah. So multi time frame analysis that really matters and more context is important. That is why we also have the funding craze data.

That's why we have the whales data. That's why we have the fear and greed data. And what this is telling us all right so on the funding craze are we seeing that there is some extreme probability on Bitcoin that there is going to be long squeeze?

Not really. Right. Not really. So right now we have only 9% probability. It's a low squeeze probability as you can see that we will have a long squeeze. So the longs are not being crowded. Actually if you take a look at the funding history we are jumping from zero and usually this is for some time a bottom right from the historic perspective.

A top is around plus 10% in the past 90 days as you can see uh and we are far away from it. Okay. So the funding crates are not overheating themselves. All right. On HTX, we can even see it's negative, which is positive for the price action, which is bullish for the price action.

So, the longs are not being extremely crowded. On HTX, we can actually see that the shorts are being kind of crowded, right? So, it might support a push higher. Together with that, we can see that the whales in the past 24 hours, they were actually quite aggressively buy.

And we can see on multiple time frames and in the past 3 days, they are having positive buying pressure as well. On the whale pressure index, we can see on multiple time frames the whales are supporting the price action. Right? So if the whales are supporting the price action, it's increasing the probability that we will have a continuation higher which increasing the probability that our read on this price action is correct

and that this fourth wave is really intact and that we will we will continue to push towards $90,000 from the medium time frame perspective. All right, which is it's just about probabilities. Fear and greed index. Are is the sentiment extremely extremely greedy right now?

Are the people in the market at this moment feeling extremely greedy? Well, we can see that not really. We are jumping from the neutral zone. We are a little bit greedy. The read on the 4hour time frame is just 63, which is not that much.

All right, it's not that much. It's around 63 on the daily time frame as well. And on the 1 hour time frame as well. And on the 15 minutes time frame it's in the neutral. So not even on the ultra long time frame we would be somehow overextended on the fear and greed index into that greed mode.

So no extreme greed. All right. People are picking up at this moment. But as you can see the kind of pattern that we are seeing right now is being represented on the sentiment as well. We have not yet finished that five waves. We have just created one two and right now we might be in the third wave.

Okay. So given that the whales are actually supporting the price action as well is just making me more bullish than bearish on the 4hour time frame and I would put to pushing towards $90,000 right now around 70% probability given that if the price action pushes above this resistance we will start picking up the on the volume and we will be able to nicely reclaim it.

It will increase the probability points even further. All right. But right now around 70% probability that Bitcoin will be able to push towards $90,000. Obviously, if we push back below this resistance and we will again go inside this triangle, it will decrease the probability again, right?

And obviously the clear invalidation is right now the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level with with confluence of the 1.272 272 Fibonacci retracement levels. So if we start reclaiming this support from below and turn it into resistance then I will be looking to for lower prices on Bitcoin.

Okay. But right now the probability is much higher for the upside. So I'm being more bullish on the 4hour time frame. And yeah I will keep you updated again about the market in the next video. The next video will be again on Thursday.

As you know, I'm recording for you every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. So, I hope this helps. By the way, also what's also bullish is this bullish divergence that we are creating, right? We can see on the price action we have created lower low on the MACD histogram higher low so far.

So, somebody is actually eating this selling pressure since the momentum is much lower. We can see that the bears it's basically confirming the lack of participation on the downside. Okay. So also the momentum is decreasing with the push to the downside. So the the bears are getting weaker.

The participation is not there which is increasing the probability that we can push higher. All right. Right now another confirmation that will increase the probability will be if this bullish cross on the MACD is going to be successful one on the RSI indicator.

We can see there was a hidden bullish divergence at this point but then we have failed a breakout given that this was only the Dwave of the contracting triangle right now lower low on the price action lower on the RSI indicator as well but as you can see there's no edge but it's kind of bullish because we are holding up above the level 50 okay and we might have a successful reclaim

of this moving average RSI trend line if that's going to happen I think the AI will push one probability point to this RSI indicator and it will increase the probability that we can push higher. So ladies and gentlemen, you know exactly what I'm watching right now.

Stoastic RSI bull flags to the upside in this zone which is bullish. Bulls are in control right now which is increasing the probability that they will be able to defend the breakout above this resistance of that upper resistance of that contracting triangle and that we might have a successful reclaim and start pushing higher.

All right. So invalidation is clear again. If we will reclaim from below this support we will continue to trend lower. The next important support is going to be around $8,800 where we have this 1.600. 600 Fibonacci retracement level. But until then, until I see some invalidation from the price action, at least going back into that into that triangle.

All right, I'm more bullish than bearish on the 4 time frame. Okay, so ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated again on Thursday. Until then, take care. I hope this helped and I will see you again on Thursday. Cheers. Breath, clear eyes now.

No rush, no [music] drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up, clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. [music] Clean set