Can Bitcoin Hold $77,700 Support? Simon’s 4H Read

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Bitcoin is once again at our extremely important medium time frame support at $77,700. Can we now push to the upside and create a new local high? Let's analyze my cryptoise. Hello ladies and gentlemen, Peska. This is Salmon from Mic Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here.

Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. Previously, we were talking about Bitcoin on the daily time frame. When Bitcoin was at $61,000, we were bullish on the daily time frame and we have expected that with the highest probability of Bitcoin will push towards $79,000.

After this nice pump, we have turned bearish on the daily time frame. So once Bitcoin touched that $79,000 and then we have also got some confirmation behind the scenes what the whales are actually doing on the high time frame. We have turned bearish and with the highest probability we still believe that on the daily time frame we will drop below the previous low of $58,000 rather than push above the previous high

on the daily time frame that is at $82,000. We are still bearish on the daily time frame. But let's take a look on the 4hour time frame because in the previous video we were bullish on the 4hour time frame aka the medium time frame because we have touched our extremely important support at $77,700 and we have expected a push with the highest probability towards the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level at $79,978.

Right? So ladies and gentlemen, let's take a look what happened and if we are still bullish on the 4hour time frame and if we can create a new local high. So this was the push from the previous video from that $77,700. As you can see right here, we have pushed towards that 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.

We have almost touched it but it's extremely strong level. So as you can see we have already got rejected below that and on this push on this rejection from this 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level we have touched the support level at that $77,700 for a second time.

Then we had a nice push to the upside towards the moving average trend line on the medium time frame. And then the rule of three played out and as you can see right now we are crashing below that $77,700. So can we still create a new local high?

Can we push above the 0.618 618 Fibonacci retracement level that is sitting at that $79,900. Let's analyze because right now we are actually even though we are right now pushing below the important support zone. If you zoom out and take a look at the structure of the current market, we can actually see that we have some pattern that is not yet finished.

But what does it mean? We will take a look at it. But first let's shift our focus back to the weekly time frame because we know like on the daily time frame on the weekly time frame we are bearish. Okay, we have actually we have been bearish on Bitcoin on the weekly time frame since $121,000.

Right? As you remember from that $121,000 we predicted five moves to the outside and we said that with the highest probability before we can create a new alltime high that I believe will be the new alltime high will be at $169,000 with the highest probability and before we can start pushing towards this new alltime high there is something we need to do first.

We need to touch the exchange of the hand zone that is having a lower boundary at $44,000 and $44,000 is a very magical number. So as you can see from that $121,000 we are predicting five moves to the downside towards this exchange of the hand zone.

That's the same zone as back in 2022 was the $24,000 as the upper boundary and lower boundary around $16,000. But what's happening in this exchange of the hand zone? Well, if you are watching these videos, you already know, right? On the netized profit and loss, we can see clearly that since 2011, we always have the exchange of the hands during the bare market bottoms before we can start a new bull market,

macro bull market. So, what's happening? Well, the bad risk managers, the bad institutions that were not really smart in managing their risk during the bull markets, they are forced to finally realize their losses, right? So, NUPL means net unrealized profit and loss. Okay?

And we have the here the key level zero. And every time during the bare markets during the bare market bottoms since 2011 the NUPL the net unrealized profit and loss went below that zero capitulation level and spent there some time and what was happening during that time these bad risk managers like Bitcoin mining companies that didn't manage their risk well or in this current market Michael Siler that with this micro strategy

that really is not smart managing their risk very well. They were forced since 2011 every time during the bare markets they were forced to liquidate their assets and on the other side there was somebody else who actually absorbed that selling pressure right so as you can see afterwards it looks like this they start to realize their losses we are creating a lower lows on the NUPL but the price action is creating

equal lows right the price action is being stable so there is this kind of divergence. How is that possible? Because somebody's absorbing that selling pressure, right? Somebody's absorbing that selling pressure during the NUPL chart being below the level zero, below that capitulation. So, somebody who is not really good at risk management needed to sell and somebody on the other side, the smart money, the smart whales, etc., they are absorbing that selling

pressure, right? And that's why the price action is slowing down. Okay. And we are creating the exchange of the hands every time it happened 2018, 20 uh 20 and 2022 as well. And 2022 had this zone right here as the exchange of the end zone.

And I do believe that still and you know that I'm believing that since $19,000, right? because that was the time when I started to call for that $44,000 right here already when Bitcoin was at $19,000 back in January 2025. Ladies and gentlemen, I do believe that right now the exchange of the hand zone for the current bare market bottom is going to be at 55 to $44,000.

Okay, so let's wrap it up very quickly. On the weekly time frame, I'm still bearish. Okay, I do believe that right now we are creating the pattern of an ending diagonal and right now we have created the secondary wave and we are very soon about to experience the third wave of that ending diagonal that will take us below that $58,000 the previous low.

It's not certain. It's just this kind of probability perspective right now. There's much higher probability of this to play out than breaking above the previous high of that $82,000. However, if we will have a reclaim of this resistance level that is having the lower boundary at that $82,000 and higher boundary of $88,000.

I am like a water. I'm not being stubborn with my predictions. I'm a professional trader since 2016. I am being like water. Okay. So I adapt to the market environment. I don't fight it. If I will see that the smart money that are still waiting and I can see it, right?

I can see that they are still waiting. They are on the onchain. It's visible that the USDT reserves are not moving yet into the crypto. So they are still waiting. All right. The smart money. But if I will see that the wallets that we are watching okay and if you are in the proer membership we have just launched the new whale service where we are watching the whales what the whales are

doing and it's visible also on this new page crypto whale alert and tracker that we have on our website mrytop paradise.com and bitcoin whales we are tracking some of them for free there it's visible that those smart wallets are still not yet accumulating bitcoin okay but if I will see that these whales are already getting hard back in Bitcoin.

I'm not going to fight them, right? I will be like water and definitely I will jump on the wave with them, right? So, however, right now I don't want to play with the retail and retail we have understood that right now is creating a lot of leverage buy positions.

It's borrowed money and that's usually working for a liquidity. It's provided a liquidity for the smart whales to actually use that liquidity and create some kind of long squeeze right from the hard degree perspective. So on the weekly time frame I'm still bearish until I will see some bullish confirmations which I don't at this moment.

We have this shooting star candlestick pattern that confirms that the bears are extremely strong and much stronger than the bulls at this moment in defending that $82,000. The bears are much stronger in defending than $82,000 than the bulls attacking that $82,000. All right, resistance which is increasing the probability that at this moment it seems like the $82,000 will hold and we will not create a new local high.

All right, so that's weekly time frame. Daily time frame we know that the second wave of that ending diagonal we are creating in a pattern of expanded flat. Right? If you are in our MCP for university, you know exactly what I'm talking about.

Flat. We have three types of flat. One of them is expanded flat where the C-wave goes way beyond the end of the Awave which we are right now doing. So this was the Awave, Bwave, Cwave way above the end of that Awave. And it also have a specific structure.

All right, it has a specific structure. It subdivides itself into five small waves. Once we can calculate five smaller waves in this C-wave pattern, it will tell us the C-wave is being completed. So, so far we have created first, second, third and right now in my opinion we are creating a fourth wave and then we will have a truncated fifth given that we have already touched very important level with the one

of the subwave of that fourth wave. Sometimes in an impulse the fifth wave can be truncated and context is extremely important to understand when it might be truncated and at this moment it seems like it will be okay. So however on the daily time frame even though there is a possibility that we have not yet created the fifth wave so we might push higher on the lower time frame on the daily

time frame I'm I am still bearish okay even though we have not yet reclaimed the moving average trend line we are right now at that but I'm bearish ladies gentlemen on the daily time frame so on the daily time frame I'm focusing on bearish trading tactics if you are in Paris VIP you know exactly what we either have done or what we will do in the future because you we are sharing

with the paradise team with you in the paradise on the VIP inner circle our personal trade setups with clear entry and exit targets. But at this moment what I can tell you here in this video is that there is nothing bullish on the daily time frame.

So I'm still focusing on bearish trading tactics. As you can see we are having the bearish cross on the MACD histogram on the daily time frame. We are having a bearish cross on the RSI as well. We have got this beautiful reclaim too.

Stoastic RSI. Bow flags looking to the downside. Even though we are in an oversold area, there is nothing bullish about it. Okay. So, momentum is bearish, volume is bearish as well because we are creating higher highs on the price action, lower highs on the volume.

So on the high time frame, on the daily time frame, the bulls are not showing to me any strength whatsoever that would predict some probability, some higher probability of breaking above this resistance at that $82,000. So however, let's take a look right now.

Let's zoom in and let's take a look at the medium time frame. Let's zoom in into this market structure. And here we are. So what are you looking at? You're looking at a completion of the third wave of that hard degree Cwave which I believe actually ended up right here.

Okay. So this was 1 2 3. So that finished right here. Okay. That was a fifth subwave. As you know the third wave is a motive wave structure. So it needs to subdivide itself into five smaller waves. So 1 2 3 four five.

All right. So this is the fourth and fifth wave. And right now, why am I still bullish even though we have broken below the support at $77,700? Why am I more bullish than bearish on the 4 time frame? And I will tell you why and uh multiple reasons there are for that.

Okay. So, first of all, we have not created we have not finished yet with the highest probability the Cwave structure. So, that's one. We confirm that structure not being finished on 4hour time frame by analyzing the price action development. Okay. So this was the third wave but we understand that then we need a fourth wave and fifth wave but this doesn't seems like fourth wave and fifth wave.

This seems more like an ABC structure right here. All right. So corrective wave structure ABC here as well expanded flat. This is a classic zigzag. This is expanded flat. All right. And right now a double zigzag with dice probability A B and right now we are completing the Cwave.

All right. So ABC this is a zigzag. So double zigzag. Yeah. ABC first zigzag then like connective Bwave and then ABC and other. So this is double zigzag W XY. All right. with the highest probability which is right now trending within a higher degree pattern that is called double3 WXY.

Take a look at this. Yeah. So first corrective wave structure W then second X and right now we are with the highest probability creating the third corrective wave structure the double zigzag. Okay Y. So this is the Y of the double three. Obviously we might continue.

It might even go to a triple three but still it's a corrective wave structure and I do believe it's a corrective wave structure of the higher degree fourth wave which you can see is corrective all right and we are yet about to create the fifth wave which might take us higher all right and we might really right now there's a higher probability of breaking above the previous local high and I'm talking

about this one local high on the lower time frame which is which finished at at 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around that $79,700. Okay. So ladies and gentlemen, we are still waiting for the same thing at this moment. What is also bullish on the on the 4hour time frame is that the momentum is already fading together with the volume.

So the price action created a lower low but there's a clear divergence with volume because the volume has not created a higher high but lower high. All right. So as you can see the participation on this low is a fade in together with that with the momentum as well because on the MACD histogram we can see a higher low.

So another divergence. Yeah. So lower or low on the price action lower high on the volume and higher low on the MACD histogram. This is usually even though the bullish divergence on the MACD histogram is not yet confirmed. Right? But we can see that the momentum is not following the price action which usually tells us this is the confirms this is a corrective wave structure and we are yet about to have

one more push higher. Okay, it's not a certainty. It's just a probability higher probability of happening one thing over the over the other. All right, that's how professional trading works. It's not about 100% we going to go up, 100% we going to go down and have some like magical crystal ball that will tell you every single move.

No, it's about understanding the probability and then as a professional trader position yourself based on that properly, right? So when you have a lot of probability, go aggressive on your trading position, your trading idea. When you have lower probability, go defensive. When you have very low probability, stay sidelines.

All right? So there are three positions a professional trader can take and the third one is usually the one nobody respects and is the one that you have actually an option to call yourself a trader and actually don't trade for some days even for some weeks.

Okay. So you need to understand like it's not just that you either like buy or sell. There's always the third option not to do anything. And sometimes the third option is the most difficult one, right? Because it requires patience. It requires discipline waiting for your setup.

It requires to have some other hobby other than trading to get dopamine from something else than trading. Okay. And really to understand, okay, right now I should be sidelines. I will not be emotionally jumping into a position just because I have seen some crypto Twitter influencers telling me that this is once in a lifetime opportunity to do something.

I am disciplined. I'm focusing on my process and that's how I win in the long term. Okay. So ladies and gentlemen, at this moment the probability is that we will see a push higher. We will create the fifth wave, final fifth wave, and we might actually create a higher local high.

Okay? And the next important resistance is at $80,900 right here. Okay? $80,900, ladies gentlemen, right here. That's my next important resistance that I'm watching. And if the price action will look like this, aka five subwaves because the fifth wave is a motive wave structure.

That will tell me, all right, we might have completed the C-wave and I will be like a hawk watching out for confirmations that will tell me to get positioned into swing plus short position. And if you're in Prior VIP, you will know about that if I will pull the trigger and how aggressive I will pull it.

And what I can tell you also right now is that another confirmation will be other than what I'm going to be watching, what's going on behind the scenes, what's going on with the candlesticks, what's going on with the price action, are we having some divergences, etc.

What the whales are doing. Yeah. By the way, take a look at this. On the 1 hour time frame, the whales were selling, but the move probably already like happened. The that was this. All right. But because right now on the 15 minutes time frame, we can see that we are already kind of at almost 100% done with the sell side.

Okay. So if you will refresh this section in about 30 minutes, I do believe that we will start seeing a lot of incoming buy orders coming up. Okay? Because it's a strategic thing to do. So if we will see that the whales are actually confirming that it will be a very bullish signal.

Okay. Right now however we can see that the whales are selling on all time frames. So definitely be be careful with your long positions if you are in a long positions ladies and gentlemen because we can see that the whales are clearly right now dumping their bags which brings me back to the high time frame stuff.

We are still bearish on the daily time frame and you know that with parallel VIPs we have been already distributing back all right the thing that we have reaccumulated at around $61,000 our bitcoin. So the whale seems like doing the same thing as we have done.

Okay. So I would be definitely careful with long positions. If you are a sculper and you know how to trade properly, you might get upon some confirmation some nice long push towards that $81,000. But right now there are still not confirmations about the bullish diverence being really formed etc.

Okay. So more confirmations are needed. All right. Definitely what would be nice is waiting for the secondary wave. All right, of that fifth wave. If you will see that this is a motive wave structure and this is a corrective, it might be very nice and you might get a very nice riskreward because you will be able to place your stop loss quite tight to the entry zone and the exit targets you

can place much higher. But at this moment understand that the whales are really not position themselves into long positions. So be careful. It might change that is why you need to watch this lower time frame because it's usually visible on lower time frame then it starts pushing into 1 hour time frame then on 4our time frame but I do believe that at 1 hour time frame it will stop because we will

already push towards this resistance and then you should be already thinking about short positions. Okay, but definitely this is just right now from the price action we are we are looking at at this moment. If we will start breaking and reclaiming the previous low right here at $76,200, we will continue to push much lower.

But this is right now with lower probability. Okay. So, highest probability is this pushing right now up towards $81,000 around $81,000 to be exact. $80,960. That's precisely the resistance and then down. Medium probability is that we will push even higher and have a wick towards 83,720 and then start rejecting because wick can happen.

It's not a reclaim of that $82,000. All right. So, because crypto is low liquidity, high volatile market, these kind of wicks, wick outs can happen to liquidate overleveraged short positions and then we will see a reversal. So, be careful. So, that's medium probability.

And I would say at this moment, honestly, the lowest probability is reclaiming this support that $76,200 into resistance and continue to push lower. All right. But again, it's uh also an option, but lowest probability one right now. So ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated again on Saturday.

As you know, I'm recording for you videos every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. So until then, trade safe, trade with a professional trading strategy, and I will see you again on Saturday. Cheers. Calm breath. No drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click.

Execute like a pro. That's it.