In short: BitMax and BitMart shut down within a week and Simon warns Bitfinex may follow, so keep funds on exchanges with real reserves. Even so, he sees Bitcoin holding key 4-hour support, with the highest probability a push back up toward $67,000, then a move toward $69,000.
Why did BitMax and BitMart shutting down matter?
BitMax and BitMart both shut down within a week, and Simon says Bitfinex may be next after insider word of internal financial difficulties. His takeaway is simple: keep your money on exchanges whose teams hold real reserves and can back their clients if trouble hits.
Simon says he keeps most of his own funds on KCX, mainly because he cares about fees at size. He notes it charges zero spot fees and only 0.01% on the futures taker side.
The ParadiseTeam video hub covers his exchange reasoning across recent breakdowns.
Is Bitcoin heading for a crash?
Simon does not think the exchange trouble changes Bitcoin’s path much. On the daily chart he still sees an ABC pattern, with the C wave able to reach $79,000 over time. A bearish daily cross below the moving average is not yet reclaimed, so the setup is unconfirmed.
His focus stays on the 4-hour chart. Price pushed into resistance, printed a shooting star, then a bearish engulfing candle on heavy volume, and rejected lower. It then stopped at a support zone that already held twice, including early July.
What levels is Simon watching on the 4-hour chart?
Simon treats $62,500 as his invalidation for the bullish 4-hour structure. Hold above it and he still expects the next push higher. Lose it and he expects a move toward his buying area around $60,000 to $59,000.
To the upside, his main 4-hour resistance stays $69,000. He explains his level and position sizing approach as part of managing risk before any entry.
What would trigger Simon to take a trade?
For a scalp long, Simon wants confirmation of the bullish divergence he sees forming. The previous low showed momentum near minus 200 points; the newer lower low reads only minus 132. That fading bearish momentum is his early tell.
He also wants a MACD bullish cross, a reclaim of the RSI trend line, and the stochastic RSI turning up from oversold. More confirmations let him size up with better risk and reward.
How does Simon manage the trade once he is in?
Simon frames trading as roughly 80% monitoring and 20% execution. On the VIP long, the team took target one at 2.5% position size into resistance. They then moved the stop to break even before the rejection came.
He favours limit orders over market orders to cut fees and add size in calmer conditions. He also watches positioning on the crypto funding board before acting.
Frequently asked questions
Which exchanges shut down and is Bitfinex at risk?
Simon says BitMax and BitMart both shut down within about a week. He adds that Bitfinex may be next, citing insider word of internal financial difficulties. His advice is to keep funds only on exchanges with solid teams and real reserves that can back clients if problems arise.
Does Simon expect Bitcoin to crash?
Not as his base case. Simon says the exchange trouble does not change Bitcoin’s path much. His highest probability is a push back up toward $67,000, then $69,000. A drop below $62,500 shifts focus to his $60,000 to $59,000 buying area, with a deeper crash least likely.
What is Simon’s invalidation level?
Simon uses $62,500 as his invalidation for the bullish 4-hour market structure. That level sits at the low of the E-wave within the higher degree fourth wave. While price holds above it, he still expects the next impulsive push higher toward $67,000 and then $69,000.
Why does Simon keep his funds on KCX?
Simon says he keeps most of his money on KCX because he trades size and cares about fees. He notes it charges zero spot fees and only 0.01% on the futures taker side. He recommends it to Paradise VIP clients as one exchange he trusts to hold reserves.
When is Simon’s next update?
Simon records three videos each week, on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. This breakdown is the Tuesday video, so his next Bitcoin update lands on Saturday. He says he will report back then on whether the bullish divergence confirms and whether his scalp long setup triggers.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned. It is what was said, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
In less than a week, [music] the crypto exchanges BitMEX and BitMart have shut down. Is this a major warning sign that a large market crash is coming? Let's analyze the probabilities. >> [music] >> My Crypto [music] Paradise >> Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Paradise Comp.
This is Simon from Market Rebellion. Welcome back. It's great to have you here. Today is Tuesday, and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So, BitMEX and BitMart have shut down. Be very where you are keeping your money, ladies and gentlemen, because Bitfinex might be the next one.
We have some insider information that internally they are having some financial difficulties. So, if you are keeping some money on Bitfinex, I would be careful. Me personally, you know where I'm keeping my money. We are recommending the exchanges where we only are sure that the team behind is solid, that they have reserves.
So, if something happens, they are able to back up their clients. Right now, I am keeping most of my money, honestly, on KCX because I'm not trading with a large amount of money, right? So, I care about the fees. KCX is the only exchange that has zero fees.
They only have 0.01% on future staker. We always recommend as one of the exchanges to our Paradise Family VIP clients. With Paradise Family VIP, they are also getting some bonus upon joining. So, right now, I think they said until end of the summer, if you join with this code, you will get some bonus as well.
And it's only for the summer. After the summer, it's only again for Paradise Family VIPs. So, right now, ladies and gentlemen, exchanges might be going through some troubles, but is Bitcoin really going to be affected by it? Well, let's have a look. We already don't what uh have been discussing in the previous videos.
We already know what with the highest probability Bitcoin will do next, right? So, we won't be talking about it right now in this one because nothing pretty much changed. Let's right now put our focus on the 4-hour time frame, which is mostly important.
Let me just remind you on the daily time frame we are creating the ABC pattern where the C wave might take us with the highest probability towards $79,000. There's right now nothing is changing there. We do have the bearish cross. Daily candle crossed below the moving average trend line right here.
So, there is not a reclaim just yet. So, it's not confirmed 100% that we are right now already creating the secondary wave like right this, but you know that it's not really our interest on the daily time frame, right? Because we are focusing on buying since we are understanding that the higher degree perspective is bullish, right?
So, everything been discussed about the daily time frame in the previous video. Let me now put your focus back on 4-hour time frame. So, in the previous video we have been discussing that on the 4-hour time frame with the highest probability we will have push to the upside, right?
And we will be watching how the price action is reacting towards this resistance. So, we have been understanding that this support is having loads of confluences, and that's why it's going to be important, and we will have with the highest probability some push to the upside.
That's why with Precision VIPs we have created a Bitcoin long position, and we have taken target one with 2.5% position size. Almost target two we have hit, right? But target one strategically placed at the this resistance right here. And as you can see, we have hit the resistance, and then we have got a rejection.
That is also why as a professional trader, not only preparation for the trade is important, but also when you are in the position, managing the position is important because once we hit target one, we immediately place our stop loss to break even, right?
So, once we saw that the rejection is incoming, and take a look at this, right? So, we have been looking at the volume. In the previous video, I have told you I want to see with rising price action when the price action is creating higher highs and higher lows, I also want to see that the volume is creating higher highs.
And until this final candle, everything was all there, right? These two candles been above the moving average volume trend line, we went aggressively above the moving average on the price action. Everything was good, but then the price action started to slow down as we hit this resistance zone right here.
Well, and then after we have got one bearish shooting star candlestick pattern right here. You know that I'm talking about the shooting stars a lot because these candlestick patterns are extremely important because it gives us understanding who is stronger and how aggressive the bears are, right?
So, you can see that this wick right here, the big tail of the candle and small body of the candle, this tells us basically the bulls been pushing trying to break above the resistance, but the bears on the four-hour time frame been much more aggressive, and they have pushed all the price action that the bulls created down, and the candle closed like this.
This is extremely important candle, shooting star candlestick pattern. Then the next one, the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, all right? So, basically this kind of combination, and then what happened? A huge volume on the next bearish candle, right? So, then this uptick told us, all right, take a look at this.
This is the bearish participation. This is the bullish participation. No way, like very low probability that this moving average trend line is going to be reclaimed back into a support, and indeed we have continued to go to the downside, and we have stopped exactly at the support zone that we were also talking about in the previous video that already been holding us previously two times, and basically in the beginning of July,
it's basically so such an important level. Take a look at this. Resistance, support, then again for a while resistance, support, support, and now acting as a support as well. Let's take a look right now on the momentum on this lower low. All right, so as you can see, the previous low was at $63,600.
Right now, we have created a lower low. All right, the next low finished at $63,044. And take a look at this momentum. All right, so the momentum on the previous low was around a minus 200 points. All right, take a look at this.
Right now, the momentum so far is only at minus 132 points. All right, as you can see, it's not confirmed just yet. All right, but some kind of bullish divergence is actually forming. The momentum of bears is decreasing. So, even though they have been able to push the price lower, now they are struggling to push below this support because the momentum is decreasing, and you can see the participation on the bearish
price action because we are looking at the volume right now is also decreasing, right? Which is giving opportunities for the bulls to start taking over. So, what am I waiting for to pull the trigger for some maybe scalp long position would be confirmation of this bullish divergence, right?
So, you know that more probabilities you have on some trading setup, the more aggressive you can get. So, one bullish point that I would have would be if the momentum would start to create three candles on the 4-hour time frame, all right, that are creating basically a higher lows, all right?
So, if I will get another higher low right here, another higher low right here, I don't need to wait for the complete bullish cross because this will be an early sign for me. And given that I understand how strong the support still is, all right, because we have not yet reclaimed it into a resistance, we might reclaim it this and this, but so far for scalp there might be a great risk-reward
opportunity. So, I know how strong this support is given that I understand what been happening in the previous price action. And I also understand that we are actually still in a bullish market structure on the 4-hour time frame because as you know, with that probability, we have not yet finished the first motive wave structure or impulse that might take us towards that $79,000.
So, I would be focusing, if I would be scalping, on bullish trades. Of course, definitely if I get enough confirmations, right? Another confirmation would be bullish cross, the blue line crossing the red line on the MACD, for sure. The RSI is having extended a bullish divergence still, but another bullish sign would be if we would be able to reclaim this moving average RSI trend line from resistance into support and up tick
higher. That would prompt me for understanding that there is increased likelihood for a continuation to the upside. Stochastic RSI, we are already in an oversold area having a bullish cross, but you know what I'm waiting for, right? You know that. I'm waiting for going into the zone and both of the lines looking to the upside.
That will tell me, all right, the bulls can start taking over. The path of least resistance is again to the upside on the upside, all right? From the structure, let's remind ourselves the structure, but pretty much nothing changed from the previous few videos, so there's not much to update.
If you have not watched the previous video, watch it now for sure after watching this one because it will give you a better understanding of the market. So, 1 2 3 4 and the final fifth wave, as we have said, with the highest probability is going to be the ending diagonal, right?
1 2, if we can hold $62,500, let's say, basically at the low of the E wave of that higher degree fourth wave, we are still in a bullish market structure. And with the highest probability the next push is going to be higher. That's going to be the third wave of the fifth wave, then a fourth wave, and then the final fifth wave might take us towards $69,000, right?
So, for me, the main resistance on the 4-hour time frame is still $69,000. From a swing trading perspective, I might be shorting right here if I will get enough confirmations. And definitely, if it will start to crashing lower, the medium-time frame strong support is going to be around that 60 to 59,000, which will be the my very high probability buying area for catching the next impulsive third wave on that daily time
frame that might take us towards $72,000, but I will be catching the move up to $79,000. But, as I have said in the beginning of the video, it's not only about preparation for the trade, it's about managing the trade once you are in the position as well, right?
So, 80% is monitoring the market as a professional traders what we are doing. How we manage our time when we are trading, right? So, a lot of people think like trading is about this all the day smashing buttons, not really, right? So, it's more like when you are a sniper, you are just monitoring the environment, right?
And the execution is actually only 20% of the things you do and right? So, 80% is monitoring the market, preparing for the trade, then once you are in the trade, monitoring the market again and basically managing the trade, right? And only 20% is the execution, is actually some action on the market that you do.
Not only like this, you will save on fees, right? Because you are not like on daily basis smashing the buy button and sell button like 30 times a day, right? So, you will save on fees because when you stay in the position, you are just paying funding, right?
And most of the times it's not that much if you are actually doing mean reversion trading, okay? The opposite of the what crowds are doing. So, it's not that much and what costs you money is only when you create a market order or limit order, right?
Limit order costs much less, so that is why also why in Paris VIP, we are doing our best to as much as possible to create our trades with limit orders. Not only it's easy to take for our clients and for ourselves, we can put more volume into the market thanks to that because we are entering when the waters are calm, basically.
But also, we paying less fees, right? So, if you can play with limit order, if you must play with market order, sometimes there is no other like way other than with market order to do it when you are trying to catch some kind of a position, right?
But focus on most of the time actually doing nothing, right? So, think twice, think risk always before doing something. So, ladies and gentlemen, right now it seems like we might still be in the ending diagonal structure. If this was the low, this might be the beautiful zigzag, right?
Where 1 2 3 4, we might have we might have one more low right here. Might be just a week out as a final fifth of that AB of that C wave, right? But 62,500, this is my invalidation level for the bullish market structure.
If you will start crossing below it, there is a very high probability that we will start pushing towards this buying area of ours where we will be able to create some nice long position with great risk reward and high probabilities if we will get enough confirmations there.
I will definitely keep you updated, ladies and gentlemen. So right now, let's actually summarize the likelihoods. We already looked at it. So right now with the highest probability, we will start pushing back up, all right? And we will be having the next high around $67,000, all right?
Given that we have this ascending trend line right here. So it will be nicely confluencing with the $67,000 that we know about from the previous videos. So that might be the third wave, then a fourth wave, and then the final fifth wave might take us towards $69,000.
For me, this is still the highest probability, right? And we have been discussing this in the previous videos already. So this is still the highest probability. Well, medium probability is that we will start crossing below that $62,500. If we will, I believe that the next buying opportunity will be right here.
The next important support zone around that $62,000, okay? Well, then the lowest probability would be that we would start crashing below this support zone, right? And medium probability is that we will start reversing and we will start going into that third wave structure.
So like that. So this is the medium probability and this is the lowest probability that we will just continue to keep crashing without any bounce from this medium time frame support zone. Ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated again on Saturday. As you know, I'm recording for you three times a week, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday.
So until then, trade safe. Trade with a professional trading strategy, think risk first, protect your capital, and I will see you on Saturday. Cheers. [music] >> Calm breaths. Clear eyes. Work done. Now right eye. No rush. No dread. [music] Right time for snap.
Clean setup. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's [music] it. Clean setup.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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