Bitcoin Whale Shorts $51M: Simon Stays Bearish

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There is a mysterious Bitcoin whale that has just opened a Bitcoin short position worth $51 [music] million. What does this whale know and where the price of Bitcoin [music] is headed next? Let's analyze the probabilities. [music] Hello ladies and gentlemen. This is Salmon from Market to Paradise.

Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is a Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. So previously we talked about that Bitcoin is bullish at $61,000. We expected a pump towards $79,000. We were bullish for months on the daily time frame.

After we have hit $79,000, I have hit bearish and I can tell you that I am still bearish on the daily time frame. And also I do believe that on the weekly time frame we are still in a macro bare trend. A lot of people think that we are already in a bull market that this bump is the beginning of the bull market.

If we take a look at the Google trends, let me show you Google trends ladies gentlemen. We can actually analyze what's happening with the demand for Bitcoin. Okay, during pumps and dumps, we can assume if we are in a bare market or a bull market.

So let's take a look right here at uh what happened like beginning of June. Okay. And we see that in the beginning of June we have seen this beautiful uptick in Bitcoin searches on Google. Okay. What happened during this time during the beginning of June?

Well, what happened was that we have crashed by around 30%, right? If you have been around, you know that we have been calling for this crash. We have dropped by around 30% ladies and gentlemen. And that was the beginning of June. And what happened?

a lot of demand increased for Bitcoin, right? Let's take a look right now at this uptick in Bitcoin searches. As you can see, it's clearly lower high. So, the this uptick in Bitcoin searches was much smaller than the one during Bitcoin crash. All right.

So, what happened in the middle of August, I would say. Well, we have pumped, right? So, we have pumped. How much did we pumped? Again, by around 30%. So dump 30% created much bigger demand for Bitcoin than the same length of pump. So as you can see there this is clearly a situation that is happening in bare markets.

Okay. So in bare markets people are much more interested in cheaper prices. Okay. In bull markets people are driven by fear of missing out. So they are much more interested in when Bitcoin is creating a higher prices. So this is also one of the way how we can determine it's just another indicator how we can determine if you are in a bull market or in a bare market.

And right now we can see that much more interest is happening when Bitcoin is actually crashing. Okay. So this is just another indication that with the highest probability this is not a beginning of a bull trend just yet. Okay, from the technical perspective, I don't believe that we have completed the final fifth wave.

Uh also, so from technical perspective, I'm also not really convinced that this is the beginning of a bull market. As you know, from around $121,000, we have started to call for the price $44,000 to be a bottom of our bare market and then we can start pushing towards the new alltime high as we have analyzed a year ago.

$169,000 I believe is going to be the new alltime high for the next bull market that I believe will begin in the middle of 2027. But until then, there's still very high probability that right now we are in the formation of an ending diagonal and that we will crash below the previous low, ladies and gentlemen, that was created at $58,000 and we will need to touch that $44,000.

At least the zone, the exchange of the hands zone, you know that the smart money are waiting for this time. The smart money I have not been accumulating and absorbing the selling pressure from the capitulation of the bad risk managers from the institutions like micro strategy that really did not manage their risk well because the capitalization has not happened yet.

Okay. So there is nothing to be absorbed. So I've been sharing with you the graph right what's happening with the netized profit and loss since 2011 ladies and gentlemen since 2011 we always have this kind of capitulation uh the smart money absorbs that the price action slows down and then we can start the new bull trend every single time in every major bare market this has happened and still right now it's

not yet happened and people are calling for a bull market bull market might have started but there's a very little probability at this moment for that I don't have any technical confirmations neither so for me as a professional trader what I care about is not my bias not my feeling even though like I have this kind of feelings of intuitions right sometimes because I'm watching the market since 2016 the crypto market

so I have these kind of intuitions what what might happen next but I take it just as another indicator here. All right. So, I'm not just relying on my instincts and basically almost nothing other than that we have hit like important level. It was the previous support of that previous higher degree fourth wave.

Other than that, like from my perspective, my analysis, we have not done anything necessary for the bare market to be finished. Okay, I might be wrong, right? And if I'm going to be wrong, I first want to seek some confirmations. So for example, at least properly reclaiming this resistance on my weekly time frame that is having an upper boundary at $88,000 lower boundary, we have already touched at around $82,000.

And as you can see, right after touching it, we have created a huge shooting star candlestick pattern that is usually visible at the top of some uptrends. As you already know, it's showing us that the bear are extremely defensive of this resistance level and that they are not playing any games with bulls.

They are very aggressive as you can see. So that's the weekly time frame. I'm still bearish on the weekly time frame. On the daily time frame, you know that we are creating this kind of expanded flat pattern, right? ABC the C-wave might have already finished.

You know that we expected that the fifth wave might be truncated but because we were also watching the momentum indicators and we were waiting for something very important to happen after this bearish cross and that is the retest of the red line. All right.

So for a proper reclaim of a resistance or reclaim from the downside of a support I'm not satisfied enough with just a breakout what we have got for example on the weekly time frame a breakout above the moving average trend line on the weekly time frame.

I'm also interested in retesting it properly and showing me that the bulls can defend such important level as the moving average trend line on the weekly time frame. Same likewise right here I have been saying to you most likely this is a fake out until I get enough confirmation volume was extremely weak right plus we have not reclaimed the proper level and voila what happened afterwards of course we have crashed this

was a fake out in my opinion there is a very high probability of this breakout being a fake out as well even though we have got quite nice volume above the moving average volume trend line. I still need to see a proper reclaim.

Okay? Because as a professional trader, I want to minimize these kind of fake out moments, right? Like first of all, I know at this moment I don't have a very great riskreward on my trade, right? Second of all, I don't have enough probabilities because there are no confirmations.

technical perspective is also telling me we have not created the kind of things that we need to create for macro bottoms creations right etc. So I would much rather really miss a trade or two than risking my capital and the capital of our clients unnecessarily.

That is why as a professional trader confirmations are extremely important because it doesn't diminishes the fake outs. Sometimes you're going to get caught in in a fake out, right? It doesn't completely gets rid of it, but it decreases the probabilities of you getting caught in a fake out, right?

So that is why I would much rather wait for a proper confirmation of reclaiming this resistance level on the weekly time frame. That would tell me okay the bulls are already defending this level. They are reaccumulating here rather than here. And if I will get enough confirmations that the big boys and the smart money are already getting back to the market, well I'm going to be playing with them, right?

I'm not going to fight them. I'm going to be playing with them. So however, right now I don't have any confirmations of that. We knew that this was basically created by a squeeze, right? We have been talking about it. We have seen what was happening with the open interest.

So, this was a huge short squeeze happening and we have been watching also what was happening during that with the cumulative volume delta, right? So the long positions has been offloading the cumulative volume delta on the spot has been absorbing all of that and that's how this move happened.

All right. So ladies and gentlemen, I'm still bearish on the weaker time frame and I'm bearish on the daily time frame as well. So at this moment what we can see on the MACD is that the blue line crossed below the red line and right now we have created this kind of reclaim that we were waiting for.

Right? So the fifth wave could have been truncated but given that we have touched the important next resistance level that we have charted already previously right here right right at that 82,000 and we had it already right here mark. This is extremely important resistance zone because if on the daily time frame we will start reclaiming that 82 $84,000 it's going to invalidate this bearish structure that we are at right now.

That's the ending diagonal structure and I'm going to start playing with bullish trading tactics. Right? But until we can properly reclaim this level, why would I be playing with bullish trading tactics, right? If you're going to reclaim it, not only it will be very high probability of continuation higher, right?

because we will the the path of least resistance will be on the on the upside but also I will be able to create a beautiful trade with very tight stop-loss because we will reclaim a very important zone right here. So it will be a strong base where I will be able to place my stop- loss right and my exit targets will be able to be placed much higher because I will understand

that the next resistances above us are going to be much more weaker. So at this moment however we are not yet there. So what we can see is a reclaim on the MACD histogram. This is a bearish cross. This is the first sign of being very very careful.

All right? Because something similar what happened back in April might again start. As you can see back in April after this bearish cross, we have started to crash by that 30%. Okay, we don't have any bearish diverence just yet on the histogram. But this is already a big warning sign.

I will tell you in a minute from a lower time frame what kind of confirmations I'm waiting for. But at this moment, let's also take a look at the RSI. The same thing happened. Bearish cross retest looking to the downside on this candle with the RSI line.

Right now the moving average RSI trend line is going to be acting as a resistance. So we have double confirmation right here. Okay. Stoastic RSI is heaven on the on the opposite side a bullish cross. However, at this moment we are not in the zone.

We are not looking to the upside. And you understand that sometimes it can happen. But if you don't have a confluence with other indicators, what's usually happening is just very slow sideways price action. we will get the stoastic RSI into an overbought mode again and then we will be able to start start going down.

Right? So one indicator will really tell you nothing. You need to contextualize all of your indicators into the market price action with other indicators. What's going on behind the scenes? What are doing the smart money versus the retail? And then give each indicator some kind of a value.

Right now, stoastic RSI telling me like the bulls might be for a while defending some important level. For example, right now we might be defending the $79,000, but the other indicators are telling me like bears are getting ready. Okay, bears are getting ready.

We can see that the momentum is already decreasing right here. We just need to start getting the bears in. And it will take a while in my opinion because right now what we can see is that actually the Bitcoin dominance is decreasing. So the money are flowing from Bitcoin into what?

Well, it might be out of the market completely. But if you take a look at the others dominance, all right, we can see that it's actually flowing into altcoins. So I would however be still careful. We are about to revisit this important resistance with Paris on the VIPs.

We have been already taking profits on our altcoins. For example, sky swing position. We've already closed all targets 37% profit with 1x leverage because we are playing it safe. We are actually being playing with bearish trading tactics already. Okay. So, I would be careful ladies gentlemen.

I would be careful for confirmation on the Bitcoin into some nice swing plus short position. That's my kind of style. I want to wait for confirmation that the bulls can that the bears are really can control the price action on the to the opposite side.

So how am I going to assume that? Well, first of all, I need to understand what kind of development of the price action is happening right now. So we know that the Cwave is a motive wave structures. That means that it subdivided itself into five small waves.

And so far we have created 1, two, three, fifth, fourth one with the highest probability finished right here in the end almost touching the moving average trend line that I was looking for. But it seems like the $76,000 was enough and we've actually created this double three formation the WXY.

All right, as you know from the Lot wave perspective, this is a corrective wave structure. All right. WXY, this is the bullish one. This is uh the bearish one. Yeah, WXY. All of them are corrective M wave structures. And that means that there's a high probability that right now we are completing the fifth wave that we were thinking might be a truncated one because really the $79,000 was extremely important level that

we were waiting for months to be hit. And as you can see for many days we have been defending that quite well. Two fake outs right here. Then again exactly that $79,000 working absolutely perfectly. But with this push we are right now changing it into a support.

Okay. But I don't feel of this as very confident reclaim because take a look at the volume. what what needs to happen with volume on a successful reclaim and we don't want to watch volume on a futures exchange. We want to watch it on a spot exchange.

So let me let me put right here because that's the real volume that's really matters. It's not the borrowed money, right? It's the real money. So it's the smart money that is going to tell us the truth. So we take a look on Binance as that exchange is having most of the volume and [snorts] uh it's it's on the spot.

So take a look at this. Yeah, break out above that important above that important $79,000. Take a look at the volume. Nice volume. I'm not saying anything. It's not a bad volume above the moving average volume trend line. But then what we need to have for a proper reclaim is the retest of that important level on decline in volume.

All right, on a decline in volume. But take a look at this. This candle was actually pretty damn powerful. Okay. And on the cumulative volume delta, we can actually see that it wasn't shortening. It wasn't aggressive shorting. It was actually aggressive dumping bags on a spot.

That's real money. Okay, which is decreasing the probability that this is a real reclaim and that we can continue to create a new alltime high and start pumping towards $169,000. Is decreasing the probability, ladies and gentlemen. is decreasing the probability because you need to understand that at the bottoms the smart money are being always positioning themselves.

So that's why volume is extremely important to watch and what's going on behind the scenes is extremely important to watch as we were watching it together back in 2023 and we have been calling for the upcoming bull market on this secondary lower degree time frame and that was our confirmation right at that $19,550 as you as you remember if you have been in our free telegram channels you remember that right so

let's take a look right now at the volume again and what's happening versus the open interest and cumulative volume delta because it's interesting. So spot volume has been selling aggressively on this candle. Any positions went in? No positions has been closing, right? So no borrowed money on this dump.

That tells us that some big players actually dumping their bags. Okay, so positions started to get closed. But where the positions went? Well, it went into the altcoins. So, if we take a look on the funding crates, okay, we can see that the funding crates on Bitcoin are getting kind of neutral at this moment.

We actually have 0% probability of any squeeze upside or downside. The funding crates, all right, are getting neutral on Bitcoin and also kind of on Ethereum, but Ethereum still has a high probability of a long squeeze to be honest. Okay, as you can see 30% probability on the weaker time frame.

On the 4 time frame, it's lower. It's only 12% probability. But who is having the high positive funding rates? Altcoins. Okay, you can see altcoins are really lot of positions. Longstar being crowded on the altcoins that positions from Bitcoin went into altcoins. It didn't disappear.

So long being crowded but on the altcoin side. And as we already know how the money is flowing from the market and into the market. As you can see money flow right here. It goes from total to bitcoin then from bitcoin to altcoins and then from altcoins out of the market and that's visible on the total crypto market cap.

Right? So it's this kind of circle. So I would be first of all I would be careful about getting caught in these kind of altcoins. As you have seen, we are we are no longer really interested with paradise VIPs into some aggressive positions in altcoins.

It was a very small ride and as a professional trader, you should really take what's what the market gives you and then again defend yourself and given that we understand that the retail right now the trading volume from retail and overall trading volume in the crypto market is at all-time low.

Okay, I've shared with you the Google trends, right? It's at alltime low. Let's take a look at past 5 years. Take a look at that. We are almost at alltime lows. Very no interest at all from retail almost. Okay. So, what does it mean?

It means that let's imagine that you go to the casino and you play poker. Okay. And at that poker table, there are no longer the kind of drunk tourists that are very easy to to play play out in in poker. Right. Right now you are playing the poker against highskilled poker players as well.

All of those poker players are defending their chips extremely well. They are playing only strong hands. They are being very protective of their stakes. They are being very careful when they when they risk a lot and that is why you need to really adjust to it.

Right? So you need to get in and then immediately start protecting your capital again. That's the condition of this current market and if you understand the condition of the market you can really play the poker professionally against other professional players right of course market is cyclical and I do believe that a lot of drunk tourists will come to the pocket table again and it will be much more much more fun and

much more easier to make a lot of money right because we will be able to really strip down the drunk tourists right But right now you need to be very protective. You need to be much smarter than the other professional poker players. All right?

Right now sharks are trying to eat sharks. So that is why you need to play it smarter. So you need to be more defensive ladies gentlemen. And a lot of poker players, these professional poker players, they might be very good at the game, but if they are not better than you, they're going to go get out of the table.

They're going to lose everything. So right now it's very easy to get trapped okay and get eaten even though you are very good get eaten by the other sharks that's why you need to be much smarter and you need to be much more protective that is why we are okay with this small rally on altcoins and now we are again being protective and we are observing we are observing sidelines yeah observing

if we will get that confirmations of reclaiming this important resistance Perfect. But right now we can see that there are hints that the retail is not really interested in the higher prices. They are much more interested in the crashes, right? And henceforth right now during this push to the upside are playing.

So they are maybe doing some smart traps, right? So I would be very careful. I would be very careful with altcoins trying to catch this kind of late rally. Okay. and uh yeah and with Bitcoin as well. So this was the this was the double three ladies and gentlemen and now now we might be creating the final fifth wave which again because we have created the 80 we have already touched the

important next important level $82,000 there's much higher probability that the final fifth wave will be truncated that means it will not go above the previous high. Okay. So that's just right now the highest probability because we have created 1 2 3 right now fourth and now we will be creating fifth wave.

Once the fifth wave will be finished you know that it subdivides itself into five small waves with the highest probability this is going to be an ending diagonal because of the context. I will be watching for the confirmation that I promised you to tell you about.

So I will be watching for the confirmation that the bears can control the price action and I want to see first impulse in the opposite direction. Right? So the impulse will be five waves to the downside. If I'm going to get that, I'm going to be watching the next corrective mode wave as a hawk and I will be treating that as a shortening opportunity in expectation of catching the next hard degree

third wave. Ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated about that. Until then, trade safe. Trade with a professional trading strategy. I hope these videos are helping you, okay? And I will catch you in the next one. Cheers. Calm breath, clear eyes. [music] Work done now.

Right. No rush, no drag. [music] Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like [music and singing] a pro. That's it. M clean set