In short: The ParadiseTeam stays bearish long-term but bullish short-term on Bitcoin. A whale nicknamed Gambler opened a roughly $136 million short, and a push above $64,600 would liquidate it. The team sees room toward $69,000 if bulls reclaim resistance near $64,000, then a short back to $59,000 support.
Why could the $64,600 whale short get liquidated?
Track it live: our live crypto funding rates updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
A trader nicknamed Gambler opened a Bitcoin short worth around $136 million. If Bitcoin pushes above $64,600, that position gets liquidated. The ParadiseTeam calls this shorting into support, which is risky. It usually works only when most traders are crowding into longs.
Right now sentiment sits near 40, a summer extreme-fear reading. That looks closer to a reversal than a fresh breakdown. A reclaim of the moving-average trendline near $64,000 could push price toward the whale’s liquidation.
Is Bitcoin bullish or bearish right now?
It depends on the timeframe. On the weekly, the ParadiseTeam stays bearish and still expects a visit to the $55,000 to $44,000 zone. That area would mark the macro bottom, like it did in 2022.
On the daily and 4-hour, the team is bullish. The structure stays bullish until price reclaims $62,500. You can follow the running read on the Bitcoin analysis hub.
A daily bullish divergence is still in play. The team reaccumulated some Bitcoin near $61,000 and is holding. A recent bearish MACD cross lowers the odds but shows nothing clearly bearish.
What price targets did the analysis share?
The near-term path points up. A reclaim of $64,000 and the $64,500 to $64,800 zone could carry Bitcoin toward $69,000. That would complete a five-wave bullish structure on lower timeframes.
From there, the ParadiseTeam sees a short opportunity back toward the $61,000 to $59,000 support. Bigger picture, $79,000 stands out as a major magnet. The team also treats it as tough resistance and a later short zone.
For any levels-based plan, position sizing matters. See the team’s take on position sizing and capital preservation. The stated first target on a bigger short sits around $55,000.
Why avoid over-leveraged longs at support?
Because funding rates warn of a squeeze. On the 4-hour, funding is turning positive and longs are getting crowded. The reading shows a 16% long-squeeze probability, so a wick lower is possible.
History backs the caution. Whenever funding reached about plus 10% this past year, a long squeeze to the downside followed. You can track this on the crypto funding rates board.
The structure stays bullish, but leverage adds danger here. The ParadiseTeam repeats its rule: risk first, profit second. It would rather miss a trade than risk capital unnecessarily.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the whale Gambler and what did he do?
A trader nicknamed Gambler opened a Bitcoin short position worth around $136 million. The ParadiseTeam notes he is shorting into support, which is generally risky. If Bitcoin climbs above $64,600, the position faces liquidation. The team questions the timing because sentiment does not show crowded longs at this support.
What level triggers the whale’s liquidation?
A push above $64,600 would liquidate the short. The ParadiseTeam highlights $64,500 as an important level, sitting as resistance on the 1-hour timeframe. A reclaim of the $64,500 to $64,800 zone would raise the odds of a continued move higher, making that liquidation level easier to hit.
Is Bitcoin heading to $79,000?
The ParadiseTeam sees $79,000 as a strong magnet and important level with many confluences. On the daily, the team expects a push toward it as a C wave, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. An impulse would raise the probability of actually reaching $79,000.
Why does the team warn about funding rates now?
On the 4-hour timeframe, funding is turning positive and longs are getting crowded. The reading shows a 16% long-squeeze probability. Historically, when funding neared plus 10% this past year, a long squeeze to the downside followed. The team warns over-leveraged longs could get wicked out before any continuation higher.
What is the team’s overall trading approach?
The ParadiseTeam puts risk first and profit second. It would rather miss a trade than risk capital unnecessarily. The team builds strategies around surviving black swan events, aiming to lose small often and protect capital during losing periods. Discipline and patience sit at the center of that approach.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned. It is what was said, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
There's a crypto whale that calls himself Gambler that just has opened a Bitcoin short position worth around $136 million, but is it a smart idea to short at support? If Bitcoin pushes above $64,600, this whale will be liquidated. What are the probabilities of such Bitcoin move?
Let's analyze. >> [music] >> My Crypto Paradise >> Hello, ladies and gentlemen. This is Adam from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Thursday, and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. So, in this video, we will quickly go through the weekly timeframe.
We will have a look on the daily. We will take a look at the 4-hour timeframe, and also we will have a glance at 1-hour timeframe. So, first of all, the weekly timeframe, you know that on the weekly, I'm still bearish. We do still expect, as we have expected when Bitcoin was trending at $121,000, that we will visit this zone of 55 to $44,000, and that's going to be the same zone
that will mark the macro bottom, same as it did back in 2022, right? This was the zone, in my opinion, the same zone for the macro bottom in 2027 is going to be 55 to $44,000. In mid-2027, I do believe we already will begin the bull trend, the new macro bull trend that will take us towards $169,000.
So, on the weekly timeframe, I do believe that towards that zone of 55 to $44,000, we're going to get in the fashion of ending diagonal, like this, five subwaves, and right now we are creating the counterwave of that bearish trend that might take us towards $79,000.
So, let's zoom into that, ladies and gentlemen. $79,000 is a very important level because it's having a lot of confluences. So, not only it's acting as a magnet, but also it will be a little very tough nut to crack. So, in my opinion, this will be a very nice opportunity to create a short position, and I will be definitely upon having a lot of confirmations right here targeting the level below the
previous low from the daily time frame perspective. So, definitely I will be targeting some levels below $57,000. As you know, from the weekly time frame perspective, $55,000 is very important support. So, probably my first target take profit target is going to be at around $55,000.
On the daily time frame henceforth, I'm still bullish and we should start pushing towards the $79,000 in a fashion of an impulse, right? So, C wave, the hard degree C wave is impulse, it's a motive wave structure. So, it should be an impulse or an ending diagonal.
We don't know just yet. I don't believe that we have just yet finished the first wave. That's why it's really unclear if it's going to be an ending diagonal or an impulse. Few differences, if it's going to be an ending diagonal, it's going to be slower and we will probably not reach a dead high as $79,000.
If it's going to be an impulse, there is going to be much higher probability that we will reach $79,000 and I will keep you updated about it. So, on the daily time frame, I'm still bullish. As you can see, the bullish divergence that we have spectated early on that MACD histogram is still playing out.
It doesn't have full probability points, but as you can see, we have got that bullish cross, but we have not been able to create a nice reclaim. So, we have got a bullish cross, but then the line, the blue line, wasn't able to sustain above the red line.
You know that for a successful reclaim, I wanted to see something like this, blue line holding above the red line, changing it into a support, and then one next daily candle looking to the upside making the blue line look upwards like that. That would create a huge probability of continuation of that momentum and obviously the price action would follow.
However, right now we have created a bearish cross again doesn't mean that the price is going to crash. It's just decreasing the probabilities of this bullish divergence at this moment. However, it was first bullish cross right here. If you take a look what happened what happened back in back in June right here.
Take a look at this. The first cross the first bullish cross we've actually got right here, right? And then the second cross actually marked the new lower time frame bullish trend, right? It started the trend from $58,000 towards around $66,000. Not a big trend, but for the current market situation where we are at all-time low of trading activity, all right?
We are having extremely low liquidity. This move was actually quite big for the current market situation, okay? So, right now ladies and gentlemen, definitely nothing bearish for me on the daily time frame. With Paradise only VIPs, we've been reaccumulating some of our Bitcoins back at $61,000.
As you know, we are still holding that. I'm not selling just because of having bearish cross right here. We are not having a proper bearish divergence at this moment. We have got a bearish divergence right here, but afterwards we have created this low.
We have already created a bullish divergence and at this moment there's no new bearish divergence. As you can see, this is a higher this is a lower high and we have got a lower high on the momentum as well. So, nothing bearish for me.
Right now RSI is trying to break back above this moving average RSI and trendline. So, we are waiting for that. We are monitoring that and stochastic RSI is already getting to oversold area. So, here we have got the bearish cross, as you remember, and right now it seems like the momentum, the bearish momentum is going to start to fade.
So, that take us towards the analysis on lower time frame. So, let's zoom in. Let's take a look on the 4-hour time frame, because here I'm actually bullish, okay? And not only because of the market structure, the market structure this section right here, this is a bullish market structure until we break and reclaim the E wave of the higher degree fourth wave at $62,500.
So, until we can do that on the 4-hour time frame, I'm still bullish, okay? If we take a look right now what's happening, we are actually at support. Yes, we are kind of clipped in a very tight area. Also, it's visible on the 1-hour time frame below some important support zone and resistance zone.
That is confluenced also with the resistance and support on the medium time frame. Yeah, so low time frame, we are clipped below resistance and just above a very important support. The same thing is having a confluence on the medium time frame. So, right now, however, I do believe that the whale that created the short position should be actually kind of scared because there is not a high probability of shorting at support,
okay? Usually, you want to short at support if majority of people is actually longing at support, okay? So, they are actually doing the correct thing. However, if we take a look right now at the sentiment, we can see that that's not the case.
If you take a look on the daily time frame, they are actually pushing towards that important point 40 that during summer is usually working as this kind of area of extreme fear, and we are about to see a reversal, okay? So, on the 4-hour time frame, we are kind of in a neutral area, but on the daily time frame, as you know, we are working with the 60 and 40 levels during
the summer because during the summer we are having 50% down the liquidity that is already very low in the past 2 years. So, the number 40 is usually working as normally we work with the number 20, which is the extreme fear, right? And as you can see on the daily time frame, we are getting very close to it.
So, support on the medium time frame, what I can see is that as we are consolidating, okay, below the resistance made out of this moving average trend line that is sitting around $64,000, and at that support, the bearish momentum is actually starting to fade.
And as you can see, we are getting very close to have a bullish cross. If that's going to happen, I do believe that the moving average trend line is going to be crossed, and once we can see a nice reclaim of that moving average trend line, the whales should be waiting for a margin call because the price could really start accelerating heavily to the upside, and definitely we will be we will
be monitoring that together in the next video on Saturday. I will keep you updated about the price action. Right now, on the 4-hour time frame, I am bullish until we reclaim the $62,500, ladies and gentlemen. you will reclaim right now the moving average trend line that is sitting at around $64,000, I do believe that there is going to be extremely there is going to be extremely high probability that the bullish momentum
will start to pick up. We will start seeing on the volume a nice participation because the bulls are right now waiting, but they have a lot of bullets in their guns, and they are ready to shoot. So, once we get this confirmation, the momentum will start to pick up, participation will start to increase and hitting that $64,500 where the whale that is right now shorting at support, it's going to be quite
easy to hit that liquidation level, okay? So, $64,500 is going to be an important level to get hit. As you can see, it's working as a resistance zone on our 1-hour time frame. Once we can also reclaim this, all right, uh this zone on the 1-hour time frame that is made out of that $64,500, that's the lower boundary and upper boundary $64,800.
I do believe that there is going to be an increased probability that the Bitcoin price action will continue to trend up to $69,000. And that will conclude that five waves, all right, of this bullish structure. And here will be a nice for me upon confirmation short opportunity.
And if this going to happen, I will be targeting definitely that 61 to $59,000, all right, support area. That's going to be my short target. That's going to basically mark complete the secondary wave. Well, and then I will be positioning myself right here for the next push higher, all right, so reversal, reversal from the bear trend into a bull trend.
And I really want to I'm going to be quite aggressive right here because I really want to catch the third wave from the daily time frame perspective, the third wave. And as you know, the third wave is usually the most impulsive one, the most aggressive one.
So, I definitely would not like to miss it. But definitely, I will be patient, I will be focusing on risk first, profit second. So, definitely, if I will not get enough confirmations, my priority is to make sure that I'm not risking my capital unnecessarily.
All right, I would rather miss a trade than risking my capital and capital of our clients unnecessarily. So, however, right now the probabilities suggest that this might be a very nice opportunity if you will get towards that supports of 61 to 59,000 dollars.
And definitely, I will be watching and monitoring the market with my priorities team as a hawk because this will be a nice nice catch if you will get enough confirmations to create a long position. This will be a very nice catch. So, ladies and gentlemen, right now with the highest probability the price action will look something like this.
We will finalize the final fifth wave as an ending diagonal where it subdivides itself into five small waves, right? So, this was the first wave, secondary wave right now being created with the highest probability, third wave, and then the final fifth wave should take us towards that 69,000 dollars.
That's going to be a nice shorting opportunity. However, we also need to be very aware that not only shorting right here with a high leverage is dangerous, but as long as we are clipped below this resistance and immediate support at 63,200 dollars and lower boundary 62,800 dollars, it's also not very wise to create a long positions.
But why? Simon, we should be longing at support, right? That's the That's the logical way to do so. And you are telling me that the momentum right now is fading. Isn't it a clear long position? Well, clear long position probability-wise, it is, but you need to also understand that you as a professional trader always needs to also take a look before you open a trade where you can place your stop loss,
right? So, obvious stop loss normally upon normal conditions would be below this support zone, right? And then also you take a look at the previous price action, so below the weeks. So, you want to place it around $62,900, for example. That would be a nice support under the normal conditions.
However, at this moment, we don't have a normal conditions for aggressive long positions, even though we are at support. But, why? Because we are also watching the funding rates, right? And we can see clearly that the funding rates on 4-hour time frame are getting close to number 20.
All right. So, at this moment, the reading is that we have 16% long squeeze probability. What does it mean? The fundings are getting positive, and the longs are getting crowded. So, there is a risk that we will have some wick out before continuation of that high degree bullish trend.
What I mean by that? I don't think that because of understanding the market structure, there will be a change of structure. The structure is still bullish on the 4-hour time frame. However, being right now positioning yourself, like getting position yourself into over leverage long positions, is dangerous, in my opinion, because the longs are getting crowded, and there might be a wick out.
I mean, something like this. Price action, volatile price action down, hitting that over leverage long positions, and then reversing. Okay? Right now, because of understanding the funding rates, this is actually a high probability thing for the market makers to do, so they can make money out of it, right?
So, I would be very aware of that. And if I am right now in some over leverage long position, I would probably try to think twice about it, okay? Because there is this risk. It doesn't mean it needs to happen, but there is this risk of this happening.
And as a professional traders, we always need to think risk first, profit second. And based on that, we need to create our trading tactics, right? And take a look at this, the funding history in the past year, whenever we have got towards the number plus 10%, we have got actually this kind of squeeze to the downside.
Yeah? Long squeeze to the downside. And as you can see at this moment, we are getting close to that level plus 10%. And as you can see, every time we have got in the past year, we have got a big squeeze to the downside.
So, I would be I would be very aware of that. So, careful if you're in some over-leveraged long positions, I would be very careful about that. As you can see, every single time. It doesn't mean right now because we are not there yet, okay?
But we are getting close to it. So, I would be aware of that. If you are feeling right now extremely bullish and you have on a very big long position with high leverage, I would be aware that there is this possibility of a long squeeze, okay?
Of this kind of weak out lower. So, be careful with your trade setups, trade safe, trade with a professional trading strategy, focus on long-term growth. Don't try to get rich quick because most of the people do try to get rich quick and they treat the crypto market as a casino.
They outperform us for multiple months, sometimes even years, but then this one rare event, this black swan event happens and all of these traders, all right, that been outperforming us, grew really rapidly, they start to get absolutely doomed. It happens in a very short period of time.
So, we as a professional traders needs to create our trading strategies in anticipation that these black swan events, they needs to happen. The world is basically created out of black swans, okay? >> September >> 11. It was the black swan, right? But it changed the history.
So, basically the world is created out of these black swan events. So, our main goal needs to be a survivor, right? So, we are not trying to get rich quick. We are trying to get rich out of the winning streaks. We are trying to make more money during the winning streaks, lose less money during the losing streaks by creating only the highest probability trades with greatest risk reward and grow basically over
time. So, most of the traders, they 80% of times they are winning, and then only 20% of time they lose, but they lose big. As a professional traders, we are having the absolute opposite. It's for the mind, for brain, for human brain, this is extremely uncomfortable because we are social beings, right?
We like to do and feel what other people feel. So, when you feel when you see everybody around you getting extremely rich, right? At some time, and you are actually underperforming them and you are doing the opposite thing of what they are doing.
When they are buying, you are already taking profit. That's why it's it's been so uncomfortable for a lot of people to sell with us right here. And then also call the market top right there around 121,000 dollars, as you remember. Everybody was calling me like and us the whole parties team that we are crazy.
Well, we have been doing the uncomfortable thing, and it wasn't very comfortable. It was multiple weeks, right? Because we have been already getting bearish right here. It was multiple weeks of like, are we actually doing this right thing? And questioning ourselves. But because I'm doing this since 2016, I've seen the patterns, all right?
So, I knew that if I will be following my strategy, I will actually win in the end. So, mental mental strength is extremely important in trading and the opposite is that most of the traders, 80% of time they are winning and then in 20% of time they they lose and they lose big.
As a professional traders, we 80% of time we are losing small and then we hit that multiple winning streaks in a row and we win big in a short period of time and then again we are protect protect protect capital and then bang, yeah?
So, that's how strategy that is that is focused on black swan events looks like, okay? This strategy is to make sure that you get rich quick. So, that's that's the trade-off. That's the trade-off. It's not comfortable but is the trade-off. So, ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated again on Saturday.
Until then, take care, trade safe and yeah, focus on discipline. Cheers. >> Calm, bro. Clear eyes. Work done. Now right no rush. No dread. Right time for snap. Clean setup. Clean click. >> [music] >> Execute like [singing] a pro. That's it. Clean setup.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Join the discussion
No comments yet. Pro Paradiser members, share how you are reading this.