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In short: Simon says Bitcoin lost a key moving average trend line, but the daily structure stays bullish. The ParadiseTeam still targets $79,000 as a magnet, with a weekly path toward the $44,000 reaccumulation zone. Watch $62,500 support and $65,500 resistance. A reclaim confirms upside, while a break below points lower first.
Did Bitcoin losing the moving average break the bullish setup?
No, the break did not flip Simon bearish. Bitcoin lost a moving average trend line that held as support for several days, yet the ParadiseTeam still reads the daily time frame as bullish. Simon wants a reclaim of that line over the next two daily closes before trusting the upside.
Behind the drop, Simon points to a hidden bullish divergence on the MACD histogram. Price made a higher low near $62,000 while the histogram made a lower low. He reads that as bears exhausting leverage while smart money absorbed the selling pressure.
He wants confirmations first: three higher lows on the histogram, a bullish cross, and a clean reclaim. RSI and Stochastic RSI have not confirmed yet, so Simon treats the setup as promising but unproven.
Where does Simon think Bitcoin is heading next?
Simon still targets $79,000 as a magnet on the daily time frame, framed as a C-wave inside an expanded flat. On the weekly, he maps a five-wave move down from $121,000 toward a $44,000 reaccumulation zone, the same area that formed the 2022 macro bottom.
He calls 55 to $44,000 the exchange of hands zone, where the team is strategically reaccumulating. Simon says a break below $44,000 is low probability. You can follow more of this roadmap through the Bitcoin analysis hub.
Longer term, Simon believes the next all-time high forms near $169,000. And that is where he plans to sell most of the holdings the team is reaccumulating now. He stresses reading market structure to decide when to DCA lightly versus aggressively.
Which Bitcoin levels matter right now?
The pivot levels are tight. Simon flags $62,500 as the fourth-wave support. Hold it and a fifth wave can push toward $69,000. Above sits resistance at $65,500, with the previous high at $65,400 capping the first attempts.
On the 1-hour chart the $64,800 to $64,300 zone flipped from support to resistance. Simon marks it neutral because there is no reclaim yet, so this could still be a fake out. A failure risks a slide toward $63,000.
He sees a swing short near $69,000 if the bullish structure completes with confirmations. His preferred trade is a long from $61,000 to $59,000, aiming to catch the larger third wave. Careful sizing matters, which is why he stresses capital preservation.
What do funding and the squeeze data show?
The fear and greed index sits in neutral, after briefly nearing 20, which is extreme fear. Simon notes a mild long squeeze risk. Funding rates show longs getting crowded, which can be dangerous for overleveraged positions.
He adds that positioning looks fairly split between retail-heavy and smart money exchanges, so the signal is not aggressive yet. Simon watches the crypto funding rates to gauge when crowded longs become a real risk.
His takeaway is patience. Simon says he would avoid pushing new high-leverage longs until Bitcoin reclaims the moving average trend line. And he keeps the Bitcoin he rebought at $61,000.
Frequently asked questions
Is Simon still bullish on Bitcoin after the moving average break?
Yes on the daily time frame. Simon says the market structure has not changed, and he reads the drop as a hidden bullish divergence with selling pressure absorbed by smart money. He still targets $79,000 as a magnet, but he wants a reclaim of the moving average trend line confirmed first.
What is Simon’s downside target for Bitcoin?
On the weekly time frame Simon maps a five-wave move from $121,000 toward $44,000. So far the low is $57,000. He calls 55 to $44,000 a reaccumulation zone tied to the 2022 macro bottom, and says a break below $44,000 is low probability.
What levels is Simon watching on Bitcoin?
Simon watches $62,500 as fourth-wave support and $65,500 as resistance, with the prior high at $65,400. Holding $62,500 opens a path toward $69,000. Below the current zone, he sees risk toward $63,000. He likes a long from $61,000 to $59,000 on strong confirmations.
Does Simon recommend leverage here?
Not aggressively. Simon says he would hold off on new high-leverage long positions until Bitcoin reclaims the moving average trend line. He points to crowded longs in the funding rates and a mild long squeeze risk. His focus is safe trading and winning more during winning streaks than he loses.
When is Simon’s next Bitcoin video?
Simon says the next video comes on Thursday. He recorded this one on Tuesday as the week’s first analysis. Until then he tells viewers to watch the next daily closes and the confirmations he described, especially whether Bitcoin reclaims the moving average trend line or loses $62,500 support.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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