Bitcoin Lost Its Moving Average: Simon Eyes $79K Next

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Bitcoin just broke below this moving average trend line that has been working as a support for multiple days. Does this mean that we will necessarily need to continue to crush lower or is this just a fake out and we can start pushing higher?

Now let's analyze the probabilities. [music] [music] >> Hello ladies and gentlemen. This is Simon from my crypto paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Tuesday and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So back in July we have expected that with the highest probability we are on the daily time frame creating a B wave right here and that with the highest probability we will start

pushing towards $79,000. As you remember we've recorded that month ago plus some days ABC that's an expanded flat structure and this level $79,000 is working as a magnet. I am still bullish on the daily time frame and even though for almost a month we are doing pretty much nothing in the market since we are in summer right during summer usually there is not enough liquidity so the market is usually going sideways

like this we are still bullish the market structure has not changed ladies gentlemen the market structure has not changed on the weekly time frame neither okay as you know from 121,000 there We do expect that we will continue in a fivewave moves towards $44,000.

As you can see, so far we have hit $57,000. That was our low, ladies and gentlemen. But we have not yet touched our reaccumulation zone, which is the same zone where back in 2022, we have created the macro bottom. I do believe that 55 to $44,000 that's going to be again the zone of exchange of the hands.

As you know from the previous videos, I have talked about this many times. You know exactly what I mean by the exchange of the hands and what onchain data we are actually watching in order for us to be sure that the macro bottom is being done.

And once the macro bottom is done, I do believe that with the highest probability, the next all-time high is going to be made at $169,000. And that's going to be also the time where I will be selling again most of the holdings that we are right now with Paris VIPs strategically reaccumulating.

Right. So we have been distributing our bitcoins right here at this top around $19,000 and then below $121,000. Right now we are already in a strategic reaccumulation. But it's really important when you are doing DCA that you are I don't believe that you should be buying or selling like every month or every week the same amount.

I do believe that if you can read a little bit the market structure and you can do a little bit of technical analysis, you should really determine when you should DCA like lightly and then when you should go aggressive and that's exactly what we are doing on the daily time frame.

So basically let me explain the weekly time frame very quickly. We are right now in the final fifth wave in my opinion and as you know from the previous videos with the highest probability we are making the final fifth wave. So this was the top of the fourth wave at $83,000 and the fifth wave should have a fashion of an ending diagonal.

Right? So what do we know about an ending diagonal is that it subdivide itself into five small waves. Each of them are corrective wave structures. So far we have created the first wave. Secondary wave should take us towards that $79,000. Then a third wave should take us below the previous low on the weekly time frame which was created at around that $58,000.

Then a fourth wave and then the fifth wave should be consolidating at this zone. And since we are really waiting for a very long time since Bitcoin was at $121,000 for that level $44,000, I do believe that we might touch it. All right, because you know there is lots of confluences and if you see lots of confluences at some level it works as a magnet and also it works as a pretty

strong support. So we should not like it's very low probability that we would go below that $44,000. If you are subscribed in this channel you know exactly what confluences we have at this level etc and why it works as a magnet. I'm just going through this very quickly.

Let's move right now to daily time frame and let's analyze this wave structure that should take us towards $79,000. As you know, we are predicting that $79,000 since uh July. But as a professional traders, we monitor the market with the bar racing 24/7 and we are not stubborn in our predictions, right?

So when the market shows us, look guys, you should change your opinion. We are flexible. We are like water. We adapt to the environment and we are very very okay with changing our decisions and with our perspective about the market right about our bias on the market.

So at this moment however I don't see anything bearish that much on the daily time frame. So first of all we have created a bullish divergence right. So as you can see this low was made at around $58,000. This low was made at 62,000.

So the price action made higher low but the MACD histogram created a lower low. How do we call this? If you are watching our MCP free university, if you are being educated there, if you are taking a look at what we are posting there with our team, you know exactly that we are calling this a bullish divergence, right?

So when the price action is creating a higher low, but the indicator is creating lower low, it's called hidden bullish divergence. And what's going on behind the scenes is actually pretty clean. You can see that the momentum of the bears been much higher than on the previous low.

So a lot of bears are pushing a lot of power into that move. So that means they are using leverage. They are really exhausting themselves. But based on the volume we can see that the participation wasn't extra increasing right and the price action also defended the immediate support.

So it didn't created a lower low as we have created on the histogram. So the momentum got absorbed. Basically all of that selling pressure that the bear has been really pushing into the market been absorbed which suggests that smart money absorbed that selling pressure which is increasing the probabilities that we will see a reversal from downside to the upside because the selling pressure got absorbed right here.

As a professional traders we always waiting for confirmations. So it's not enough if you will see just like we are creating already lower low. No, you needs to wait for confirmations and there is multiple of them and if you get more the probabilities of a bullish divergence is being increased.

So for example me personally I'm always always like to wait at least for one closure on the histogram that is higher low on this basically which will tell me all right this was really the low but I really put a lot of probability points if I get three.

All right. So higher higher low higher low and another higher low right here. If I get that for me the bullish divergence is being increased in odds of playing out nicely. Together with that if I can get also a bullish cross the blue line crossing above the red line it even increases the probabilities of that bullish divergence.

And if I can get also a reclaim which we are trying to get right now that means after breakout we also retest that line and then we can look to the upside with that blue line starts looking to the upside that really matters on the next daily two daily closes.

It's again increasing the probabilities to absolute maximum for me at least personally that the bullish divergence is going to play out very nicely and the continuation is going to be quite large. Yeah. So that's what we are waiting for right now. That's a final confirmation ladies and gentlemen.

But so far the bullish divergence looks very nice. The selling pressure got really absorbed and we can see that the bears are right now. You need to understand that if if there is not enough bears in the market. Well, you you need to understand also the participation of the people on that move, right?

So if you can see then also behind the scenes that the bears that are currently have been trading in the past 20 20 days already got into a short position and we are watching that on open interest for example and the selling pressure got absorbed either they are they are right now trapped inside of the short positions right and what we can expect well they will start closing their short positions which

will help the price to move to the upside because when you close a short position you need to buy the position s back, right? So that will push the pressure on the price action or you will get liquidated and again you will be forced to close your positions and you will need to buy them back and again that will help the price to push to the upside.

Right? So this is very important to understand when you are watching for some divergences and also if you can see it on more momentum indicators that it is happening the bullish divergence it's increasing the probabilities of it even further. All right so what we can see on RSI it's actually not being confirmed.

Okay as you can see higher low on the price action and on the RSI as well. But what's nice that we are trying to reclaim this moving average RSI trend line from resistance. As you can see, it was acting right here and trade here as a resistance into a support.

And again, it needs the next uh two daily candles to really show me that it can survive and look to the upside. Then it will increase the probabilities that we might continue higher towards that point 70 on the RSI. Stoastic RSI a little bit bearish but not that big of confirmation for me just yet.

I want to see both tails right here, both of the lines looking to the downside and in this zone. So the red line is still not in the zone. If it's going to get in the zone, you can see previously it triggered some price action to the downside, but currently this is not a huge confirmation for me.

So make the histogram looks bullish but there is not much confirmation from RSI and stoastic RSI neither. So you can understand that for me right here thinking about reclaim of this moving average trend line it's not a great position even though it would be great right if we would reclaim back this moving average trend line on the daily time frame but for me it's not a great position for me great position

great time to get back into the market rebying some Bitcoin was at that $61,000 and that's what we were doing right here in prod bullish so what It helps me to understand all of this analysis on the daily time frame. Don't sell the Bitcoin that you have bought at $61,000.

Right? So for me, daily time frame is still bullish and I have no reason to sell the Bitcoin that I have been reaccumulating at $61,000. Okay? So that's it. So as you know, the daily time frame is showing a bullish structure. The C-wave should take us towards that $79,000 still with a higher probability then that the price action will start crossing below the previous low of $58,000.

And the C-wave, what we know about a Cwave is a fivewave structure and with the highest probability right now we are creating the first wave which is not yet finished with the highest probability. So let's take a look at that. Let's take a look right now at the first wave.

Let's zoom in into 4hour time frame ladies and gentlemen. So what we know about the first wave? It's a multi-wave structure. So it's subdivide itself into five smaller waves. Right? So so far we have created one two three four and since we were able to defend the low of the fourth wave very nicely at that $62,500.

It's working as a support and with the highest probability we are creating the fifth wave that might take us towards $69,000 unless we break $62,500 first. All right. If the $62,500 will hold, there's much higher probability that we are right now creating an ending diagonal and that fifth wave will take us towards that $69,000.

As you know from a swing trading perspective here will be a very nice shorting opportunity given that we understand that the market structure the bullish market structure will be finished and if we get enough confirmations and another great possibility to create a great riskreward trade upon confirmations like some bearish candlestick patterns bearish divergences and other indicators that the smart money are distributing the price action etc.

we will be able to create a nice short position and as you know I will be targeting $61 to $59,000. If however we will first break below the $62,500 that will tell me that already this was the fifth wave that you know is not very clean because we are missing a lot of guidelines at this structure.

So, it's not really a high probability fifth wave. But if we will start breaking and reclaiming the $62,500 into a resistance, I will maybe short something right here. But I will definitely be looking very aggressively to create a nice long position at that 61 to $59,000 because it will be a high probability trade.

I will get also a great riskreward and I will be catching the third wave right from the daily time frame perspective. The third wave that's going to be my main move that I want to catch but definitely I will stretch my last targets over $79,000.

And since I know from the hard degree perspective the invalidation will be able to be placed quite tight to the entry price. It's a high probability trade and if I will get enough confirmations right here, it will be also a great probability trade.

So beautiful opportunity for me. Let's take a look right now what's happening with this structure on 1 hour time frame. So what we are doing right here this zone around $64,800 to $64,300 been previously working briefly as a support. As you can see as you remember we have reclaimed it nicely.

We have broke above the zone. Previously it was working as a resistance. Then we have broke above it with rise in volume. We have retested that with decline in volume. That's a beautiful reclaim for me. Then it a couple of times worked as a support but as you know every wall when you keep pushing into it it gets weaker and weaker and weaker.

Imagine that you are having a hammer and you are you are smashing with the hammer into some wall. Sooner or later it's going to break. Right? And usually we have this kind of rule of three or four. As you can see, we have got one touch, second touch and the third touch didn't survive and we went through it.

Okay, so right now we are trying to retest it as resistance. So far I have put this zone as a neutral because there is no confirmation of a reclaimation just yet. This can pretty much be still a fake out ladies gentlemen. So watch out how the next few hours going to play out.

It's going to be really important. daily close and the next daily close will be also very important. So definitely monitor the market, monitor the market. If you are not in Paris on VIP, make sure that you are monitoring the market instead of letting that job to us.

But take a look at this. All right, few hints we are already getting. So as we have broke below this zone rise in volume right now, we are trying to retest it and the volume is not that big and we are already kind of pushing a lot of momentum in there.

So far we can see there might be forming a bearish divergence. As you can see this was the momentum of the bulls at this high right now. Take a look at the momentum and basically they are not able to get back the price action.

So bulls are pushing a lot. They are really putting a lot of effort into pushing the price above the previous high. But as you can see somebody is really not letting them. We can actually see behind the scenes there is a lot of walls at the price action we are at right now.

A lot of sell walls that are distributing and absorbing that momentum. So unless we can in the next 24 hours show a nice bullish volume a new participation in the market going on helping the bulls going above this zone. And if we will start losing momentum if you will not be able to go above it and we will start losing momentum.

Ladies and gentlemen, this bearish divergence will start to play out. Okay, if you will do the lower highs and lower highs as I have taught you, one candle lower high is going to give some probability of the bearish divergence. Three some probability then if we will see a bearish cross it's going to increase it again.

I've been talking about it right few minutes ago. So when you are watching for bullish divergences is the same thing for bearish divergences. Then if you can conference it with the RSI and stoastic RSI, you can get a nice probability into understanding if the bearish divergence will start to play out.

So that's going to be dangerous, ladies and gentlemen. And it will increase the likelihood that you will start pushing towards the next low time frame support that is right below us at around $63,000, ladies and gentlemen. So be very careful about uh the current development of the market.

Next few hours are very important. If you're in ply similar VIP, you know exactly if we're going to take some position, how we play this market. We are many traders in the team. We are hiring only top 1% of traders that are trying to get into our team.

All of them are having different trading strategies and we are sharing that with you inside of Paradise MVIP. So right now, ladies and gentlemen, be very aware of this potential bearish divergence. It's not confirmed just yet if we will start reclaiming it. If you will start seeing a nice volume going back into the market with price action creating higher highs volume also creating a higher highs and if we can go above

the previous high which is at $65,400. This is not going to be a bearish divergence. Right? It will nicely show us that the bulls are really strong and they been able to push above the previous high and we can continue much higher. All right, but right now you can see from the medium time frame we have stopped exactly at the resistance that I have showed you in the previous video which is

at that $65,500. It's not going to be that easy on a first push. It's not going to break, right? So, we will need to attack it few more times to get through it. If we will get through it, the probabilities of that uh fifth wave taking us up to that $69,000 will increase.

And right here, as you already know, I will take it as a nice shorten opportunity. Right? So, but you can see on the 4hour time frame, there might be a reclaim of that moving average trend line. Right now, there is no bullish divergence.

As you can see, lower low and we have got lower low as well. On the MACD histogram, there is no bullish divergence on the medium time frame RSI. No bullish divergence. In fact, we are trying to retest this RSI moving average trend line as a resistance.

So, actually until we can reclaim back this moving average trend line at this moment, it looks more like we will go lower. All right. So watch for the next important closes of the next candles. What we can see on the fear and greed index, we are in a neutral zone.

So it's nothing that scary. We have been briefly at around close to our number 20 which is extreme fear. Usually when you can confluence it with some nice support, it's working as a as a buying signal. If you take a look on fear and greed index, yes, we have long squeeze probability a little bit.

So that momentum that we are seeing is really showing in the funding crates as well that more long positions are right now in the market. So the longs are getting crowded which might be dangerous to hold some overleveraged long position. So be careful.

But we can see it's pretty much nicely divided between the retail heavy exchanges and smart money exchanges. So none not that much an aggressive signal but you know if we get closer to 20 it might start getting dangerous. So I would definitely be aware of holding some overish long positions given that we have not reclaimed just yet the important resistances.

All right. So on the on the 4hour time frame I would hold pushing in some new buy positions with extreme leverage until we can reclaim the moving average trend line. And even after that, you know that uh leverage is nice because you can make more money if you're right, but you can also lose more money if you're wrong.

Right? So, as a pro trader, me myself, I'm focusing on safe trading. I'm focusing on long-term game. I'm not trying to get rich quick in the market. I'm trying to make sure that during my winning streaks, I can win much more than what I lose during my losing streaks.

Every strategy has losing streaks. Every strategy has winning streaks. The professional traders make much more money during winning streaks than what they lose in losing streaks. That's what differentiate a gambler that is just trying to get lucky on some big wins and doesn't mind the process and the difference between the gamblers and the provisional traders that are focusing on the process and they are playing with probabilities.

So ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated again on Thursday. Watch out for the signs that I have been talking about. And Thursday is the next video I will record for you. Until then, take care. Cheers. >> Calm breath, clear eyes. [music] Work done now.

Right. No rush. No drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up. [music] Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. M [music] clean set