Bitcoin Hit $79K Target: Simon Turns Bearish Again

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More than a month ago, I have told you that Bitcoin with the highest probability will start pushing from $61,000 towards $79,000. Our target $79,000 has been hit. And now the same people that told you to sell everything at $61,000 are telling you that the bull market is back.

But what is the truth? Let's analyze my cryptoise. >> Hello ladies, gentle. This is Son from Micropase. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is a Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. So, our target $79,000 has hit faster than expected to be honest.

And the question is if we can keep on going to the upside as everybody on crypto Twitter is telling you or are we about to have a rejection? Let's take a look. Let's take a look, ladies and gentlemen. Let's break it down. We are up around 28% from that buying area.

So you know that $79,000 we have been expecting from more than 30 to 40 days ago. We have said that $79,000 is going to be the zone for this Cwave to be finished at. But you can see that we have not finished our five waves just yet.

I had four right here and fifth right here. Why is that? We will talk about it. But first of all, take a look at this. The CME futures gap that we were tracking closed beautifully by this week. There is no other CME futures gap above us.

All right. Then we have much lower ones below us that we will break down in next videos. But right now, this one that we have created back in May is closed by this beautiful week out. And we can assume that we have also with this retested all of those important other confluences.

Those Fibonacci levels that we were talking about the VPVR the market structure previous price action right here for example the top of the first wave etc. All of the important levels right previously it was working as a support then as a resistance as you can see right here and again right now as a resistance.

And for the pattern that we are actually spotting. So let me break it down. Obviously weekly time frame still the same as you know as we are expecting from $121,000. I'm still bearish on the weekly time frame. Okay? I'm not going to I'm not going to make it too long for you.

So I'm still bearish. You know that we are expecting $44,000 to be hit before we can start pushing towards $169,000 which is going to be the new alltime high. you know that we have been distributing our bitcoins in priorly VIP back in back in when bitcoin was trading around $19,000 and then this where this this push to the upside where everybody told you that the bull market is back we are going

to $51 million that was the another great opportunity to distribute more of your bitcoins right so we expected that from around that $121,000 we are about to start pushing to the downside side. And from like a year ago or more, we have the level $44,000 still.

And the exchange of the hand zone is much more important. That's made out of upper boundary 55 and lower boundary. That's the magical $44,000. I would say the $44,000 is such a magical number as the one that we were talking about on the daily time frame, the $79,000.

As you can see, we have hit the $79,000. Right now, we are rejecting. The probability suggests that we should not go above this. All right. Level definitely we can we can start pushing above this. We can even start pushing above this resistance zone.

But as a professional traders, we are playing with probabilities, right? And right now the probability suggests so that the market structure on the weekly time frame is still bearish. We are doing the ending diagonal pattern that we are expecting from here from the fourth wave creation where the first wave of that ending diagonal is has been finished long time ago.

Right now we have finished or we are finishing the secondary wave. Then we will create a third wave that will push us below the low of $58,000. Then the fourth wave and then the final fifth wave will finish at the zone of exchange of the hands.

ladies and gentlemen, then we will be able to push to the upside and towards the new all-time high. Right? So, right now, this is basically based on the structure we were anticipating. So, I'm not feeling much FOMO as other people are. We are at extreme greed right now on our live crypto fear and greed index.

And we are doing just the secondary wave of our ending diagonal. Okay, this is upward ending diagonal. The downward ending diagonal is having the same structure, the same rules, the same guidelines and what we can see and observe from the weekly time frame.

This is very clean ABC corrective mode wave structure. So with the highest probability we are right now finishing the final Cwave and we are about to have a reversal very soon. So the thing is that why don't I believe that we have created the macro bottom just yet because we are also watching together the net analyze profit and loss and we were not having the capitulation the capitulation that since 2011 marked

every single bottom macro bottom of bare markets didn't happen just yet we can see it has not happened okay just yet so you can see that we need to get Michael Syler to sell more than only 33 bitcoins. We need to put him under a lot of pressure.

So instead of going bankrupt, he need to sell his assets, right? I'm giving Michael Syler just as an example. But you know that most important in this game are the Bitcoin miners. We already bankrupt some of the Bitcoin miners, but there's still a lot of players that are not on the top of the tree in the game.

And you know that the big mining companies they want to get rid of those right. So they are helping the market makers to do the kind of cycle that will make sure that those uh small mining companies are out of the game before the next bull market hits.

I'm not saying that just because I think so. I'm saying that from experience. It always been like this. It always has been like this since 2011. So you can see that we were close to capitulation but we didn't go below it and going below it is important because it will really show us that the institutions that are right now and the individuals the rich individuals and institutions that are right now holding

their bitcoins in a loss all right they start to realize the loss because it's one thing that you hold a loss right and another thing that you start to realize it the market makers and the smart money are waiting in for the realization of the loss.

And take a look what happened in 2022. The realization of the loss started to happen. The price action started to slow down, however, right? And why it started to slow down? Because the smart money started to absorb that selling pressure. So the exchange of the hands happened from the bad risk managers to the smart money.

All right? To the good risk managers that been waiting exactly for this opportunity. All right? So I do believe that because back in 2022 the exchange of the hand zone has been happening at around 24 to $16,000. All right from technical perspective the same zone is going to be right now in this market around $55 to $44,000.

And really the same way $79,000 had a lot of confluences the $44,000 as well. That is why it's going to work as a magnet. the price will be attracted to hitting that level and also it will be very tough not to crack and go below it.

Uh so right now ladies and gentlemen I'm still bearish on the weaker time frame. Let's take a look on the daily time frame. Why do I have these numbers right here? Well, so the first wave of that ending diagonal that was this one.

That was a simple zigzag, right? ABC right now for this bearish structure because this is still a bearish structure until we can reclaim the top of the first wave which happened right here which is exactly sitting at that $79,000. This structure is still bearish until that happens because if that happens it will decrease the probability that this is an ending diagonal.

Then there will be for me it will decrease the probability by like 50 points and then there will be one more uh one more spot to get rejected from and that's around $82,000. But if you will start reclaiming right now $79,000 it will decrease the probabilities for me.

And again I'm like water. I'm not being stubborn with my predictions. If I if I see that the market is showing me, look, the market makers changing their plan. They're already starting to reaccumulate right now, I will basically change my trading tactics from bearish to bullish again.

Right? So like a water, I will adapt to the market environment. I will not fight it. Like a water is the strongest element in the world, water. And have you seen water to fight a stone when it's in its way? No. Right? The water goes around it.

It adapts. And that's why it's the strongest element in the world. And if you want to be one of the long-term most profitable traders in the world, you need to act like water. You need to be adaptable. Okay. So, however, right now the probability still suggest so on the daily time frame, I'm bearish.

Okay. The probability suggest that we are right now finishing the Cwave. And there is much higher probability, much higher likelihood that we will see a rejection rather than that we will see a reclaim of that $79,000. Okay. And based on that, we are already doing actions inside of Paradis Family VIP regarding for example, let me show you for example this uh this altcoin sky.

We have taken target three, take profit target three right here. Why am I showing you this position? Because it's extremely important to understand that right now the market is in an extreme greed. Okay. A lot of people are in a FOMO. A lot of people are going into heavy leverage.

All right. The longs are being crowded. Why? Because they believe they believe that the market will continue to do what it done it has done previously. So when the things going well, you believe that the things will continue to go well, right? When the things go bad, you believe that the things will continue to go bad in your friendship, in your marriage, in the price action as well.

Okay? So people basically believe the market will continue to go up just because it was going up like few days ago. All right? So a lot of people also have this kind of bias of listening to the crowds. Why? Because in a stone age it was the thing to do to survive.

We followed the crowds, right? It's always good to be in a crowd. It's much safer because you will not be getting hunt by a predator than going against the crowd and being alone, right? because then you are much more vulnerable to the predators and to not being able to find food etc.

Right? So we have these kind of biases in us, right? So if somebody then you will see your favorite crypto Twitter influencer telling you the market will continue to go up. The bull market is back. Of course, you're going to follow him, right?

You don't want to go against him. And don't get me wrong, he can be correct, right? But more often than not, it's much better if you follow your own trading strategy than some emotional crypto Twitter influencer that will tell you that the market is going to go higher and that the market is going to go lower and to sell everything etc.

and to buy everything etc. Okay. So why did I show you the trade is that we have created a strategy created a trading tactic that we knew where we going to get out of the position before we entered the position. Okay. So before we before we hit the buy button before we started to buy right here we already knew that if the market will go against us we will exit right here.

And if the market goes in our direction, the take-profit target three, we will take right here. Right? So, we have already created a sell limit order right here. So, then when for example, we would be in this kind of bias because you need to understand that trading is basically one big slot machine, right?

If you don't treat it with some great system around it. So then you enter the trade and you have this kind of dopamine spikes, right? And it feels really really good and you don't even need to take profit. It just feels good because the market went for example higher than you have predicted, right?

It's called this kind of prediction prediction error. So the dopamine is spiking even without you taking a profit. So then you're watching the market, you are very happy, you take a screenshot of the trade and then it goes against you, right? And you keep on holding it and it goes against you and you don't know what to do because you don't know why you have entered the trade.

So it's very important to create an exit strategy when the trade is going to go in your direction and exit strategy when it goes against you because then the market goes up but you are not being emotionally involved in it. You are not being greedy.

You just set up your trading tactic. You know when the price going to hit this level, I'm going to exit. I'm going to take profit. I don't care what some other person is going to tell me. I'm following my plan. I'm not here to get uh rich quick on one trade.

I'm here to win in the long run by following my disciplined process of creating only high probability trades with great risk rewards over and over again. And I know that only with this kind of process I can be long-term profitable. I'm not looking for these kind of jackpot events, right, that I will buy a memecoin, it will do 1,000% profit for me, right?

I'm looking for jackpot events but within my system. So, I'm looking for jackpot events within my process of hitting winning streaks, right? But individual trades are always based on high probability and great risk reward, ladies and gentlemen. Then we let the luck play in our direction by winning streaks.

All right? So, we are trying to make more money during winning streaks than lose during losing streaks. This is extremely important to understand. And if you have this kind of structure around your trading, you never can get emotionally attached to others people opinions or you cannot get emotionally involved into some emotional trading when the volatility starts to play with your mind.

So right now ladies and gentlemen we are doing still the expanded flat. This is called expanded flat that is subdividing itself into three small waves. A B C the C wave is the motive wave structure that subdivide itself into five smaller waves. So we have created one two right here and right now we are finishing the third wave.

But given that and this is very important given that we understand that the Cwave with the highest probability is going to be an impulse and that the third wave already hit our most important level $79,000. There is very high probability that right now we will be creating the fourth wave and then the fifth wave will be truncated.

Okay. And that can happen. The fifth wave doesn't need to go above the high of the third wave. So that's called truncation. Okay. This is right now the highest probability price action development of this wave. Definitely I can be wrong. If I'm going to be wrong, I will just adapt to the market environment and I will change my trading tactic.

But right now, I'm aware that the longs are being crowded. I'm aware that we are at our plus 10%. In the past year, if you take a look only at the past year, we can see every time we got to that plus 10% number, we have seen a huge long squeeze.

Okay? every single time you can see and right now we are already above plus 10% the funding crates they are finally showing us red colors all right which is on the top top right side of our beautiful scale right here so you can see the long squeeze probability is increasing heavily okay a lot of long positions right now plus on the daily time frame the fing index is hitting the number 80

you know that if we can confluence the number 80 with some important resistance it's usually working as a reversal signal okay so definitely if you feel right now FOMO I understand you all right but from experience I'm telling you it's not really wise thing to do what everybody else is doing right now and that is going into overleveraged long positions okay there is not a great risk reward because there is not

a really smart place where to place your stop loss other than below $62,000. If you're if you're doing like lower time frame trading, you might find some other levels, but it's dangerous, right? It's not a high probability trade for me. You could probably place it like below $72,000 below 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level and this moving average trend line, but the probabilities are not good.

All right? and the risk reward neither because you need to understand that then you have another immediate resistance right here. So like you would need to take your profit right here if you want to play it correctly as a professional trader which is right now extremely extremely favorable for me.

So I'm being careful instead taking my profits and I'm waiting. You can see that we are liquidating heavily open interest and that we are waiting for the kind of divergence between the open interest finally getting back in which is still not okay. It's not visible right here but we have already created lower high on our cumulative volume delta.

So we can see that the spot buying volume and you can see that big sell already happened right here. So this was also this was also the time with parody assembly VIPs when we started to distribute the bitcoin that we accumulated down at $61,000.

Some big whale already started to distribute their bitcoins as well. That's the reason. So as a professional trader we are not handling like billions of dollars, right? So uh we are not market makers. So what we can do we we cannot manipulate the market but we can follow the manipulators right if we are watching what they are doing.

So then we need to distinguish what the retail is doing and what the smart money are doing and we need to understand all right if the big money want to make money they need to somehow manipulate the retail so they provide them with liquidity right so they can dump their bags or reaccumulate their bags.

So right now we can see that thanks to the FOMO and thanks to that um that leverage that is going on in the market the big players had enough liquidity to dump their backs on without moving the price heavily and as you can see they have succeeded.

They have dumped a lot of money and they have pushed the market down only by around 4% and because the price action looks like this it's almost invisible to most of the people right what happened so the cumulative volume delta has created lower lower high the price action a higher high this is a clear divergence the big players are no longer pushing the price action higher they are instead taking profits and

I'm just waiting for the nice reversal on the open interest that will tell me okay the positions are getting back heavily. All right. Right now we can see that it's driven by short squeeze. So the new positions are kind of being eaten up but they are there right.

So we understand that once we start pushing a little bit to downside the liquidation cascade will basically start this domino effect and then the price will be able to uh smoothly have a reversal. All right. So be very careful during these volatile times.

Most of the people lose most of the money during these volatile times. So uh from the lower time frame perspective, this is one of the black swans where the professionals make money and the most of the traders that been making like small amount of money right here lose absolutely everything.

We have just liquidated in the past 24 hours over $1.8 billion which is a lot. So, a lot of people don't like this price action. Okay, I hope that thanks to these videos, you have been prepared for this. You've been you have been prepared that the market is bullish on the daily time frame.

And now I do hope that you are being aware that the opposite might be actually happening. And I've been all the time for the past few months bullish on the daily time frame. Now I'm turning bearish on the daily time frame. And I do believe that uh sooner or later we will see a reversal to the downside and we will start pushing below that 58 uh,000 previous low made on June.

I will keep you updated ladies and gentlemen about the price action. As always, I'm recording for you every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. So until then, trade safe. Uh trade with a professional trading strategy and I will see you again on Tuesday. Cheers. Calm breath, clear eyes.

Work done now. Right. No rush, no drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. M clean set