Bitcoin Higher High: Is a Long Squeeze Next?

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Bitcoin has just created another higher high and tries to push higher, but the long squeeze probability is right now at 16%. So, what's going to happen next? Let's analyze the probabilities. >> [music] >> My Crypto Paradise >> Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Paradise Cup.

This is Simon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Tuesday, and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So, on the weekly time frame, I am still bearish on Bitcoin. I do believe that with the highest probability before we can start creating the new all-time high and trend towards $169,000, we will touch this zone and with the highest probability also touch that

$44,000 that we are waiting for since basically 2025. Ladies and gentlemen, on the daily time frame, I am still bullish, and I do believe that we are creating the pattern that is called expanded flat, where the C wave might take us towards $79,000 in the impulsive fashion.

That means that we will subdivide itself into five smaller waves as we go towards that $79,000, where there are multiple confluences, and that is why this level acts as a magnet. So, bullish on daily time frame, and after that, after $79,000, if we will go there, I will see a reversal with the highest probability.

And right now, the lower probability is breaking below that $58,000 support, which is the low of the B wave before actually hitting higher numbers, at least that $70,000 that we were talking about in the previous videos. But, again, the highest probability is that we will go inside of that impulse towards that $79,000.

Right now, on the daily time frame henceforth, I'm still bullish. From the momentum indicators, we understand there are some bearish signals. However, we understand that it's just one piece of a puzzle. For example, right here we have got a bearish cross as well already back in May 2026.

And then we have pushed a little bit higher before we have got the proper crash, right? So, I do believe that right now since we are getting bearish divergences on the MACD histogram and bearish cross as well, it's a warning sign, all right?

However, it's not a complete confirmation that we will need to start crashing right now since the market structure is still bullish and I don't believe that the correction from the previous downtrend that took us from 82,000 towards 58,000, that the correction, the pullback to the upside before continuation in the higher degree trend is yet finished, okay?

So, this is just an early sign, but not a complete signal that I would right now be aggressively smashing the sell button on the daily timeframe. Let's have a look right now on the 4-hour timeframe. We will try to understand if we have already created the first motive wave structure of that five impulse and a five subwaves of that higher degree impulse and if we can start already creating the secondary wave.

You know, since we are bullish on the daily timeframe, we are waiting for a great opportunity to create a bullish long position, right? You already know that with Paradigm Summit VIP members we have been reaccumulating some of our Bitcoin at around $61,000. However, for a swing plus and swing long setup with a leverage and with a proper tight stop loss and nice targets because as a professional traders, we are just interested

in high probability trade setups, that's first, and second, great risk reward. So, when we are wrong on our trade idea, we lose as little as possible and when we are correct on our trading idea, we maximize our profitability. So, you know that on the daily timeframe there will be a nice buying opportunity at this support zone that is made out of the upper boundary of $61,000 and lower boundary $59,000.

So, I will be really interested in creating a nice bullish signal right here if we get enough confirmations, nice long position with a last target at that $79,000 if we get that opportunity. So, we are watching that with the price team as hawks right now this price action on the daily time frame and let's have a look on the 4-hour time frame and understand if we have with the highest probability already

completed the first motive wave structure or not. So, the 4-hour time frame since we are in summer is right now kinda tricky. It's challenging since we are basically not doing any proper movements as you can see since the beginning of July, we are basically trending around this zone around $63,000 and we are basically moving nowhere, quite nowhere, right?

So, we are having some indicators that are helping us to understand where this kind of reversals in the small time frame on that sideways in that sideways price action might happen and one of them is the squeeze probability index that we are analyzing and we are gathering the data for you on our website market2paradise.com for free and you know that since we understand that we are in summer where there's even lower

liquidity than during the other months during this year. We know that this year 2026 it's basically the market with lowest we are at all-time low at trading activity, all right? And you know that from previous years we understand that always during the summer the liquidity drops by around 50% from that normal activity from the previous months.

So, given that 2026 right now is the all-time low in trading activity plus we are in summer. Ladies and gentlemen, we are having right now very small liquidity in the market. It's probably the lowest one trading activity since 2018. At least what I have experienced since 2016.

2018 was the lowest trading activity for some of that period. It was exactly You remember that, right? You remember that. It was around this time right here. It was exactly in this zone. 2018, it started in November and through March we have had extremely low trading activity.

To be honest, right now I feel something similar. I I basically feel similar feelings of what I have been experiencing in 2018, which doesn't mean that we are about to start pushing with the highest probability above the moving average trend line on the weekly time frame.

It's just I still believe that there is going to be one more crash and you know exactly why because you're watching all of those videos that I'm recording for you three times a week, every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday where I have explained to you exactly the behind the scenes on the weekly time frame and what needs to happen for us to create the macro bottom in the market, right?

So we will not be going through through it in this video because this video will be just about a 4-hour time frame and we will take it quickly. So just to understand, we are in this tight zone on the fear and greed index since we are in summer and there is low liquidity.

So we understand that we are not going into the extremes of 80 on the fear and greed and 20. We are actually zigzagging right now around that 60 and 40. As we can see on the 4-hour time frame, we already trying to push towards that 80.

We went outside of the range for a brief moment, but we are back in neutral numbers right now. And as you can see on the daily time frame, we are jumping from that number 40 and we are trying to reach 60. Given that the funding rates are getting positive, all right, on Bitcoin and the long squeeze probability is getting close to 20.

And what we have said previously in previous video, when we are getting close to 20, plus the fear and greed index goes to 60, right? So, if we have long squeeze probability close to 20 and [clears throat] if we get the fear and greed index close to 60, we need to be careful about long positions, right?

Together with that, if we can confluence it with some important resistance, which we have on lower time frame, on 1-hour time frame. As you can see, I have analyzed this previous wave structure and 786 and 618 Fibonacci retracement levels, they're sitting exactly $64,300, the 618 Fibonacci retracement level and the 786 Fibonacci retracement level is sitting exactly at $64,800.

So, we are trending right now and pushing into a resistance, okay, on quite positive funding rates and the sentiment is starting to get greedy in the kind of current market situation where we are already taking greediness at 60, that we understand that the current market is a sideways, right?

So, that is making longs crowded and henceforth the probability of a long squeeze is being increased. So, I would definitely be careful if I would be in some aggressive long positions right now because I understand the longs are actually getting crowded and if some market will decide to sell, all right, it might trigger some liquidation levels and bang, it will create this kind of domino effect and that will basically push and

trigger that a squeeze, okay? So, I would be really careful about 4-hour time frame. Actually, I'm actually neutral to slightly bearish right here. However, you might ask why? Because the structure is actually have not turned bearish just yet. So, the structure is actually still bullish in my opinion, and I don't believe that the structure has changed from bullish to bearish just yet, and I don't believe that the first motive wave structure

been yet created from the understanding of that day on the daily time frame that we will move in five waves towards $79,000 with the highest probability. So, take a look at this, ladies and gentlemen. We have created first and secondary wave, third wave right here, fourth wave right here.

Why do I count these waves? Because I understand that the first wave, it needs to subdivide itself into five small waves as well. Once they are created, we might start getting the secondary wave and getting ourselves prepared for the buying opportunity at that $61,000, right?

So, right now, you can see we have created 1 2 3 4, and then what we are talking about the fifth wave, that the fifth wave might take us towards $69,000 until we can reclaim the bottom of the e-wave of the dark degree fourth wave, which is sitting at $62,500.

That's the support, the immediate support that we were looking at in the previous video. And as you can see, the support is holding pretty well, right? During the weekend and also on Monday, it held pretty well, and then we have got a nice bullish buying volume, and we have broke above the moving average trendline that held us in the lower time frame downtrend.

As you can see, it acted as a resistance. Now, after this bullish breakout, we have got a successful reclaim, and it's holding us as a support, right? So, successful reclaim, as you know, is being done by pushing with basically increasement of participation, henceforth the there is no divergence between the price action and the volume.

So, volume is increasing together with the price action and then a retest with decline in volume. We've got exactly that. This is not a fake out. This is a successful reclaim, ladies and gentlemen. But, why am I saying that I am a little bit bearish?

I'm neutral to bearish. Well, take a look at this. Let's first go through the bullish scenario because I'm not pushing the sell button until we can reclaim this this level, $62,500, right? I'm not being extra bearish right here until we can really get rid of the bullish market structure.

So, take a look at this. The fourth wave finished right here as a huge triangle, a b c d e, right? And there is a high probability that the final fifth wave might be an ending diagonal that is sub dividing itself into five smaller waves right here, right?

So, all of those are corrective motive wave structures. With the highest probability, if this wasn't the final fifth wave, henceforth the higher degree first wave finished already at $66,000. This was just the first wave of that ending diagonal and right now we have created or we are creating the secondary wave, which can still be a secondary wave until we can reclaim and break that $62,500, okay?

So, ladies and gentlemen, the price action can still look something like this until we can break below that $62,500. That is why, even though there are the warning signs, all right, from the the potential long squeeze and also we can see that the momentum on the momentum indicator, we are getting an early signs of a bearish divergence, as you can see right here.

So far the price action created is is having lower high, but on the momentum indicator, we can already see that the momentum is much stronger than the price action, right? We have already created a slight higher high. So, if we will not be able to cross and break above this resistance, all of that buying pressure, all of that momentum will be absorbed right here, will be absorbed right here, and we will

start seeing a reversal, okay? Because all of that buying pressure, all of that market participants that are buying right now will be absorbed by that sell limit orders of the bears, and then there will be nobody left to keep on buying, and henceforth, we will start seeing a reversal.

That is why I'm looking and monitoring this resistance on the 1-hour time frame at around that $64,300 and $64,800 like a hawk. If we can reclaim it, I will stop being more bearish right now on the 4-hour time frame, and I will get slightly slightly bullish, but still mostly neutral on the 4-hour time frame.

As you know, as a swing trader, I'm focusing on the two important levels on this chart. One of them is a potential short opportunity at $69,000 upon completion that five-wave structure, that ending diagonal. So, if I'm going to see a beautiful ending diagonal completion, I will be very interested in shorting at $69,000, given that it will be a high probability trade idea, since the bullish structure will be finished, right?

If I will get some confirmations, like bearish divergences, some candlestick bearish patterns, etc., I will be pushing the trigger in anticipation that we are creating the secondary wave already, okay? Of that of that impulse on the daily timeframe. The second important level on the 4-hour timeframe, or let's say a zone, is around that 61 to 59,000 there.

If you will start crossing and reclaiming, basically if you will break below that 62,500 dollars, break, reclaim, very high probability that we are right now going into that zone. This structure might be a start of a double zigzag, okay? So, if this was the fifth wave, we are having an ABC double zigzag to the downside.

So, this was 1 2 3 4 5, A, then B, and then 1 2 3 4 5. So, this is the higher degree A wave. This is one zigzag, and because double zigzag, right? So, ABC, this is the B wave, and right now we might be creating the next zigzag, all right?

So, double zigzag, as you know, is looking like this. Bullish is looking like this, bearish is looking the same way, but it's the opposite, right? So, WXY, I've marked it just to make it simple, ABC, but it's made out of two zigzags and one connecting X wave, okay?

Which is also a corrective wave structure. So, this could have been the zigzag itself. That's the That's the X wave, the the connecting X wave, and right now we might be creating another zigzag. It might have been already 1 2 3 4 5 right here.

Right now we are creating the B wave, and if I will see that during that final C wave, right? Which is another zigzag, we will create it in a five-wave structure right here for me, it will be a high probability opportunity to start creating some long position, ladies and gentlemen.

So, I will be very interested in creating some nice bullish trading setups at around 61 to 59,000 there upon confirmation of the structure and upon further confirmations at that zone like some bullish divergence. I will be looking also behind the scenes data like the funding rates, the sentiment.

I will be taking look what's going on with open interest, CVD, etc. And candlestick patterns and upon enough confirmations, it will be high probability trade with me. And since I know that the overall higher degree market structure will have invalidation quite tightly to and my exit target is going to be at that 79,000.

It'll be also high risk reward a potential trade opportunity. So, I'm very interested in taking it, right? As a professional trader, I know if I will be keep on taking only such a trade setups with high probability and great risk reward, I will keep doing that over and over again.

I know during my winning streaks, I will win much more than during my losing streaks, all right? And I will be able to be consistently profitable. I'm not talking about consistency like every week. I'm talking not about every month. I'm talking about years, all right?

That's what professional trading is about. I'm not looking for hitting one trade and making a bank, right? I'm not looking to make a killing on a single trade. I'm not a gambler. I'm not here for a jackpot. I'm not here to hit one number in a roulette, right?

I'm here to hit a jackpot on a winning streaks which is made out of series of professional made trades. Ladies and gentlemen, this is the mindset of a professional trader. I hope that you are getting that as well and I will see you again on back on Thursday.

Until then, trade safe, trade with professional trading strategy and I will see you safely on Thursday. Cheers. >> I'm bro. Clear eyes. >> [music] >> Work done. Now I I no rush. No dread. >> [music] >> Right time for snap. Clean setup. Clean click.

Execute like [singing] a pro, that's it. >> [music] >> Clean setup.