In short: Simon and the ParadiseTeam read Bitcoin as still bullish on the daily timeframe, targeting $79,000, while the long squeeze probability sits near 16%. With funding turning positive and sentiment reaching 60, longs are getting crowded, so Simon stays neutral to slightly bearish on the 4-hour until $62,500 breaks.
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On the daily timeframe Simon stays bullish. He sees Bitcoin building an expanded flat, with the C-wave able to push toward $79,000 in five impulsive subwaves. On the weekly timeframe he stays bearish, still expecting a touch of $44,000 before any new high toward $169,000.
The momentum indicators flash early warning signs. Simon notes a bearish cross from May 2026 and bearish divergence on the MACD histogram. He treats this as a caution flag, not a full sell signal, because the market structure is still bullish.
He adds that the correction which carried price from $82,000 down to $58,000 is not yet finished. You can follow this ongoing read across his Bitcoin analysis videos published three times a week.
What is the long squeeze risk telling traders?
The long squeeze probability sits near 16% and is climbing toward 20%. Simon warns that when this reading nears 20 while the fear and greed index reaches 60, longs become crowded. Funding rates are turning positive on Bitcoin, which adds to the pressure building under the market.
Crowded longs raise the odds of a long squeeze. If a large seller triggers liquidation levels, Simon expects a domino effect that flushes those positions. He tracks positioning through the crypto funding rates board before sizing any trade.
For now he stays neutral to slightly bearish on the 4-hour. He would avoid aggressive longs into this setup. The structure has not turned bearish yet, so he is not smashing the sell button either.
Where are the key Bitcoin levels to watch?
Simon watches a tight band of levels. Immediate support sits at $62,500, the bottom of the E-wave he is tracking. On the 1-hour chart, resistance lands at $64,300 and $64,800, the 618 and 786 Fibonacci retracements he is monitoring like a hawk.
Support held well over the weekend and into Monday. Price then broke above the moving average trend line on rising volume and retested it on falling volume. Simon calls this a successful reclaim, not a fake out.
He will not push the sell button until price breaks below $62,500. A clean break there would open the door toward the $61,000 to $59,000 zone. Sizing around these levels is covered in his position sizing guide.
Where would Simon look to go long?
Simon is hunting a high probability long, not chasing price. His main buying zone sits between $61,000 and $59,000, with a last target at $79,000. He wants confirmations first, like bullish divergence, funding and sentiment shifts, and clear candlestick patterns.
He also flags a possible short at $69,000. If Bitcoin completes a clean ending diagonal there, and prints bearish confirmations, Simon would be interested in shorting that top. Both ideas keep invalidation tight against his entry.
The ParadiseTeam has been reaccumulating Bitcoin around $61,000 with Paradise VIP members. Simon frames the plan as patience: wait for the zone, wait for the confirmation, then act with defined risk.
Frequently asked questions
What is Bitcoin’s long squeeze probability in this video?
Simon says the long squeeze probability is near 16% and climbing toward 20%. He explains that as this reading approaches 20, with the fear and greed index around 60 and positive funding, longs get crowded. That combination raises the risk of a squeeze, so he stays cautious on aggressive long positions.
Is Simon bullish or bearish on Bitcoin?
It depends on the timeframe. On the weekly chart Simon stays bearish and still expects a touch of $44,000 before any new all-time high. On the daily chart he stays bullish and targets $79,000. On the 4-hour he is neutral to slightly bearish while the structure holds.
What level invalidates the bullish 4-hour structure?
Simon points to $62,500 as the key line. It marks the bottom of the E-wave he is tracking and the immediate support. He says he will not push the sell button until price breaks below $62,500. A clean break there opens the path toward the $61,000 to $59,000 zone.
Where does Simon want to buy Bitcoin?
His main long zone sits between $61,000 and $59,000, with a last target at $79,000. Simon wants confirmations first, such as bullish divergence, funding and sentiment data, open interest, CVD and candlestick patterns. The ParadiseTeam has already been reaccumulating Bitcoin around $61,000 with Paradise VIP members.
Why is summer liquidity important here?
Simon says trading activity in 2026 is at an all-time low, and summer usually cuts liquidity by around 50%. He compares the feel to 2018. Low liquidity keeps the fear and greed index zigzagging between 40 and 60, which makes the current 4-hour price action choppy and sideways.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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