Bitcoin ETF Outflows: Simon’s Crash and Bounce Outlook

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Bitcoin ETFs have seen their largest outflows in 10 weeks with nearly half a billion dollars put out over the last three days. Does this mean Bitcoin is about to see a massive crash? Let's analyze my cryptoise. Hello ladies and gentlemen. This is Simon from Market Paradise.

Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is a Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. So back in June, we were bullish on Bitcoin on the daily time frame and with the highest probability we understood that we will push towards $79,000.

After that happened, ladies and gentlemen, we have turned bearish on the daily time frame after few other confirmations. But we are not only analyzing the daily time frame. We also took a look on the 4hour time frame on our medium time frame and in the last video I have told you that I'm more bullish than bearish on Bitcoin and we have understood that with the highest probability this support will hold and

we will see a push to the upside. So as you can see we have pushed to the upside exactly towards 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. There was a wick below the previous low right here. But we need to understand we are in a low liquidity, high volatility market, crypto market, especially during the summer.

And even though we are right now ending the summer, still the volume will come back in quarter 4. But until then, as you can see, the market makers are trying to really do all that manipulations in their textbook in order for them to earn for the exchanges they are working for as much money as possible.

So it was possible because there wasn't much buy walls below us and sell walls above us. So what happened during this week? First of all, we have touched our 0.618 618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous video, right? But as you know, right now we are creating the higher degree fifth wave that I do believe might even touch that 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.

So I'm still bullish on the 4hour time frame, but are we about to crash? Because in the intro, you saw that ETFs are seeing a lot of outflows, right? a crazy amount of outflows in a very short period of time. So, somebody wants out.

So, does it mean that we will really see a big crash? Let's analyze because I do believe that we will and I will explain to you why. And I do also believe that before we will see the bigger crash, there will be one more bounce because you understand that the final fifth wave is not yet finished of our higher degree Cwave.

Let me explain. Let's take it from the beginning, right? So on the weekly time frame, I'm still bearish. I'm still bearish. You know that we are bearish on the weekly time frame. together from $121,000. We expect that Bitcoin in these five waves will push down towards $44,000 before we can start creating a new bull market, macro bull market that will take us towards the new alltime high that I believe will be

at $169,000. And as you can see, we have almost touched our exchange of the hand zone with this low at $58,000. But we have not yet completed the structure of the final fifth wave. Henceforth, I'm still bearish on the weekly time frame. And I do believe I do believe, ladies and gentlemen, that we are creating the pattern of an ending diagonal.

And the third subwave of that ending diagonal will push us below that 58,000. Then we will create one corrective wave and then the final fifth wave of that higher degree fifth will take us towards that $44,000. Obviously this is right now just higher probability.

The market might change but until I will see a clear invalidation of this bearish structure. Okay, I'm still bearish and um I'm playing based on that, right? with my bearish trading tactics since $121,000 on the weekly time frame. I'm still bare. Ladies and gentlemen, you know that with Paradise VIPs, we have been distributing most of our Bitcoin at $19,000.

Then we have taken that opportunity when Bitcoin pushed towards $121,000 to distribute even more because we understood this is just a corrective wave structure of a hard degree corrective wave pattern. This is not a bullish structure, not a bullish wave sequence. This was just a corrective wave structure of our hard degree expanded flat, right?

And right now we are in the C-wave of that expanded flat in my opinion. We are having multiple bearish signs right here. I will not be going through all of them, but just to keep your mind on the most important ones. For example, this shooting star candlestick pattern.

It's telling us the bears are extremely strong in defending the this resistance that is having lower boundary at $82,000 and the upper one at $88,000. And until I will see a clear reclaim of this resistance into support, I'm still bare. Once I will see a nice break with increasement of volume above the moving average volume trend line and then retest with decline in volume that will tell me okay the bears are

losing strength the bulls are much stronger right now smart money are already position themselves I will start playing with bullish trading tactics on the weekly time frame but until then I want to be playing with stronger side and right now the stronger side is the bearish one Right?

And we have not yet seen all of the things that I have been talking about in the previous videos that we have been seeing since 2011. I don't want to go deep into this because you have been repeating that in the previous video.

So if you have not watched the previous video, definitely watch it so you understand the other indications why I'm still bearish on the weekly time frame. But let's right now leave that and let's take a look at the other expanded flat pattern that is not bearish like this one.

Right? This is the bearish expanded flat pattern. This is a bullish because it's trending to the upside expanded flat. But take a look at this. Yeah. So this is hard degree expanded flat pattern. Ultra high degree on the weekly time frame. And we have done the same thing also right here.

right on the daily time frame. So as you can see Awave, Bwave that goes beyond the start of the Awave and then impulse Cwave. Right? So this was Awave, then Bwave that went below the start of the Awave and right now we are having the Cwave.

So let's take a look at it. Let's zoom in ladies and gentlemen. And the same rules are also applying here on the daily time frame. Right? So Awave has a corrective Bwave as well. That means it subdivided itself into three subways or variations of thereof.

And then the Cwave is an impulse. Right? So it subdivides itself into five smaller waves. So so far we have created one, two, third one finished exactly right here. Exactly right here. Fourth one with the highest probability. It's a double three formation that we have broke down in the previous video.

But might be triple three. Let's let's see. But I don't see the fifth wave. The fifth wave that would complete the hard degree Cwave. And as you know, we expect that given that with this corrective wave of fourth wave, we have already touched a very important level that 82,000 our resistance right here that we have charted already multiple months ago.

It's right here. You remember that back in June we have already been looking at this. So it's working working very well and it's after $79,000 the most important level. Okay. So since we have already touched it there is much higher probability that the fifth wave is going to be a truncated one which means that it will not go above the end of this wave.

Yeah. So it should end below $82,000 the fifth wave. I'm bearish on the daily time frame. However, even though there is a nice probability of a bounce for that fifth wave to to be completed, I don't play it with bullish trading tactics. I'm focusing on bearish trading tactics on the daily time frame for multiple reasons.

We were going through them through all of the reasons, not all of them, but through many of the reasons in the previous video. So we were looking at volume the momentum indicators every single indicator told us that playing with bulls on the daily time frame is coming with much lower probability and even though it's tempting it's the lower probability thing to do right and as a professional traders we are focusing in

my crypto paradise only on high probability trade setups with great riskreward. All right. And given that we are seeing on the daily time frame a second second shooting star, ladies and gentlemen, this was the first one right here. And right here we have a second shooting star candlestick pattern.

Take a look at this. We have got on the daily time frame a massive wick, very small body. This is a textbook shooting star candlestick pattern that we usually see at the top of the uptrends, right? Confluence it with engulfing bearish engulfing candlestick where the second candle closes below the body of the previous candle which is the shooting star.

Very strong bearish signal. Ladies and gentlemen, usually you don't see such candlesticks at the bottoms and confluence it with bearish engulfing. It's usually a top- end signal, very strong one. So, I'm very interested how the next daily candle going to look like. If it's going to be a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, there's much higher probability that we will start reclaiming from the downside the $76,000.

If that's going to happen, ladies and gentlemen, I will be no longer waiting for the final fifth wave to be completed. I will recalculate how we were counting the waves right here in this section. Even though there is much lower probability right now that this was the fifth wave because it doesn't have the appropriate wave count, right?

It's much higher probability that this is WX corrective wave structure ABC and right now we are having Y and the fifth wave is yet to come. Okay. But if the market will show me, Simon, look, the bears are no playing anymore. All right, they are getting into positions.

The smart money are getting into positions aggressively. They are no longer just distributing, right? As you know, with Paris 7 VIPs, we have been reaccumulating some of the Bitcoin at that $61,000. Then we were distributing the Bitcoin at around $79,000. But that's just the place we do in our hard wallets, right?

And as a professional traders, we are having multiple strategies. Original trading strategy, which is also a membership, sculpin trading strategy, which is also a membership, gems, right? And also within the original trading strategy, we have multiple other tactics how we are managing our portfolio.

Original membership is the most complex membership we have. We are building that strategies inside of the original trading where we focus mostly on swing trading, short-term swing trading, longerterm swing trading and also positioning. All right, and also this kind of rotation of funds in our hard wallets because we have two capitals.

All right, we have trading capital where we don't compound our profits and then we have a capital in our hard wallets where we compound all the profits from our day trading. All right, you can call it swing trading. You know what I mean?

It's basically this kind of capital we are actively putting in risk. Then in the hard wallet we have this capital and we are rotating between PEXG which is digital gold USDT which is like fiat and bitcoin. Okay. And what we have done for example at that 109 and $121,000 we have distributed a lot of our bitcoins that we previously been accumulating back at around uh $20,000.

All right. And then we are reaccumulating that back at strategic levels, right? And one of the strategic level was at $61,000. But we didn't meant to hold this positioning up to that new alltime high that we believe will finish at $169,000 because we understand that from the weekly time frame perspective, we will have much bigger chance to reaccumulate aggressively our bags back.

Yeah. At lower prices. That is why we have treated this reaccumulation at $61,000 as this aggressive reaccumulation that we will be aggressively playing with and once we hit our important level which was that $79,000 we will aggressively redistribute that back. So we have done it and right now we are waiting for more confirmations for at least me because we have multiple traders in the team right our paradise team is big and

it's getting bigger we are hiring only 1% of traders that we are having conversations and that we are testing all right so we are only allowing the best traders of the best that we are able to headh hunt from other funds into our team And we have this kind of structure as a hedge fund, right?

So, every trader has a different trading tactic, but we are working within our trading strategy. And my longerterm swing trading strategy still waits for more confirmations before I can position myself into longerterm swing position with the best probability and greatest riskreward possible. So, what am I waiting for?

either the completion of the fifth wave that will give me some further more confirmations and then again I'm waiting for more confirmations from the lower time frames etc etc but just from the price action development perspective that will increase my probability points quite heavily if that's going to be a five waves right and then another confirmation five waves to the downside that will tell me all right the bears are already taking

control of the price action And then corrective wave structure it will be the secondary wave. Wow that will be another greatest confirmation where it will allow me to place a beautiful riskreward right because the invalidation will be very close and the exit targets as you know I'm planning to have very far away.

So then it really depends on your own trading tactic right how you are positioning yourself upon confirmations when you are getting defensive when you are being more aggressive how much more positions you will add once you have this and this amount of confirmations etc so we have our trading tactics and our trading strategy you need to develop your own if you are not in paradis VIP right because if you don't have

a strategy then your strategy is to fail right and the only thing I really don't want you to do is to place trades randomly without any back tested system. Okay, that's might work for you sometime but like in casino sometimes you win sometimes you lose but because you are working against the probabilities against the odds in the long run you will always lose your money.

You can get lucky sometimes you can win a lot in a casino, right? But the longer you go to the casino, basically the profit will start to play out. So you need to develop some trading strategy that you know can be long-term profitable.

And I'm not talking about two months. I'm not talking about 5 months. I'm talking about three, four years where the big cycles can exchange. All right? And within those big cycles, the smaller cycles exchange as well. That's exactly what's testing a proper trading strategy.

And only in this kind of period, you can really tell, all right, my trading strategy is long-term profitable or long-term unprofitable. And because you are watching these videos, I know that you are not treating trading like a short-term hobby, right? You want to treat it as a business, as something that you can do long term.

And it's impossible to do it without a proper trading strategy. It's impossible to do it long term. So focus on that ladies and gentlemen. So right now however if we will not complete that fifth wave and we will start reclaiming that $76,000 I will not be stubborn right.

I will adapt myself like water does to its environment. I will adapt to the market. Okay. I will recalculate the price action development and with the highest probability if I will see that we are breaking this level with increasement of volume and then we are retesting this important 76,000 level as resistance on decline in volume plus we will already confirm those bearish divergences that we are forming on the momentum indicators basically

they will be still intact. You already know that we are having the bearish cross right here. We are having very small bearish divergence right here because this was a lower high. This is higher high clearly right etc. So if this all of this is going to be intact I will just go aggressive already right here and I will be waiting for nothing right and if you're in Bison VIP you will know

about it because we are sharing with you our clear entry and exit targets immediately after we open our position. So ladies and gentlemen, daily time frame bearish for me. Okay, but take a look on the forward time frame. Forward time frame, I don't believe that we have yet completed the fifth wave.

I still believe that we need to go a little bit higher. The next important resistance after the 0.618 that we have already touched at that $79,900 is at $81,000. All right, $81,000. And so far what can we see is the bullish diverence right that we already been taking a look at in the previous video.

Clearly lower low on the price action higher low on the MACD histogram. So basically the bears produced some momentum but they have not been able to continue to push the price lower and lower. Then the momentum already started to slow down. Right? So all of the bars that shorted right here got trapped.

Okay. And then you can see that they have squeezed them with this wick. So loads of loads of short positions opened right here. Right? Then squeeze bang that produced this week out. A lot of liquidations both sides actually right also right right here afterwards.

And we have got a bullish cross right here ladies and gentlemen. We are playing with bullish divergence. So I'm not bearish on the four time frame. Henceforth, I understand that this kind of reclaim from the downside of that $76,000 on the daily time frame is coming with lower probability.

So, I'm not being too much under pressure right now of missing a good entry at this moment because I don't see much bearish signs on the 4 time frame to be honest. Okay, the price action development is not yet finished. you know that the fifth wave need to have needs to have five subwaves because it's a motive wave structure so far I I will tell you in a minute what we have

created so far okay we are running out of time so let me just quickly wrap it up momentum bullish right we are having a reclaim on the RSI on the 4 time frame as well bullish okay let's take a look right now quickly what happened right here during this week out however we understand that the whales are distributed the same as we have distributed the whales are also distributing during this price

action slowdown since 22 of August. So we can see the cumulative volume delta on the spot is just going down heavily without moving the price much. So they're using all of that buying pressure that is coming from borrowed money and we can see on the funding crates.

The funding crates are still positive. The whales are using it for distribution without moving the market which is very nice for them. What happened during this nice short squeeze during this week out is that the open interest went down. So a lot of positions unwind as you can see but immediately traders aggressively went back into long positions.

We can see that the funding crates are quite positive. All right. So there is there is again the long squeeze probability on Bitcoin on multiple time frames. So right now longs are being still crowded. That is why even though I do believe that a 4hour time frame has a nice possibility of having a bounce to the upside before the larger crash.

I'm not really interested in playing the long side at this moment honestly. Okay? because there is just the risk of long positions getting squeezed. All right, not that much because we can see the sentiment is not extremely bullish. We have touched on our fear and gre index the magical number 20 on one hour time frame and we have not yet touched the 80.

Right? But once we confluence the area with another important resistance where we we are not yet at important resistance on the 4hour time frame and uh once we also confirm that the funding crates are being even more like increasingly positive. It will tell us all right now it's a warning warning warning sign and it will probably be also a good option to start looking into some short positions.

Right. So let's take a look on the 1 hour time frame. What kind of what kind of price action have we created actually? So you know that the fifth wave needs to subdivide itself into five small waves because it's a motive wave structure right.

So we have created first wave, secondary wave of course we understand crypto market uh low liquidity market high volatility right we are still it's end of the summer still low liquidity so we are actually excluding this wig into our price action analysis so this is the end of the secondary wave for us okay so then we have pushed to the upside this is the third wave And right now we are creating

the fourth wave. All right, still a fourth wave. So ladies and gentlemen, as you can see, we are right now in a structure of an ending diagonal because the fourth wave went into price territory of the first and secondary wave right here. Right.

The invalidation would be a break and retest below $76,700, which we don't have just yet. Until that happens, I do believe that fifth wave is yet to come, but we know ending diagonal can have the fifth wave truncated. So, the fifth wave doesn't need to go beyond the end of the third wave.

$79,000. We understand $79,000 is the magical number, right? It's very important resistance. So on the 1 hour time frame aka a low time frame chart 79,000 there's extremely important resistance and then the next one as we have already said the next important resistance for me is $81,000.

Okay ladies and gentlemen so keep your focus on those important levels. Right now, it seems like we will see a bounce on the lower time frame, but on the higher degree time frames, I'm being already very careful. Quickly, we have much higher liquidity at that $81,000.

As you can see, if you will push to the upside around $3.7 billion of short liquidations, okay, so there is clear imbalance. If you will push the same direction to the downside, only around $1.8 billion. Okay, so a lot of people are still holding their short positions.

So there might be this kind of squeeze to the upside. Be careful about it. And the whales unlike in the previous video on the lower time frames as you can see they are already buying. Yeah. So on the 15 minutes time frame you can see money lean 100% buying.

Yeah. also one hour time frame they are already buying and it will start going aggressively into the higher degree time frames as well. So as you can see whales are actually right now position themselves on the lower time frames into they are leaning long basically.

Okay. So I will be watching out for this once we are hitting the important resistances how the whales are changing their direction. Okay. and I will keep you updated. And you can also watch this with me on our website my crypto paradise.com. It's very helpful.

That's why we have uh created this page for you. Take a look at this. It's nicely confluencing right here. Yeah, beautiful. So ladies and gentlemen, $79,000 $81,000 important resistances on the lower time frame. Support we have already supports we have already mentioned. So until next time, next video will be on Tuesday.

Until then, take care. Yeah, and by the way, we have also bullish divergence on the lower time frame right here and bullish cross already. So yeah, I would be on the lower time frame. I would be careful with short positions. If you are planning to open some high leverage short position, it's probably not a good idea to do so at this moment.

So I will keep you updated again on Tuesday. Until then, take care and enjoy the rest of the weekend. Cheers. Calm breath, clear eyes. Work done now. Right. No rush, no drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro.

That's it. M clean set