Bitcoin ETF Inflows Return: Simon Eyes $79K Target

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Bitcoin ETF inflows are [music] back. US spot Bitcoin ETFs just locked a second straight week of net inflows, breaking nearly [music] two months of redemptions. Just previous week, they pulled back in $75 million. If this trend will continue, [music] can we hit our target of $79,000?

Let's analyze the probabilities. >> [music] >> My Crypto Paradise. [music] >> Hello, ladies and gentlemen of My Crypto Paradise. Today is Tuesday, and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So, previously we talked about uh Bitcoin on the daily time frame.

As you know, we are creating this beautiful pattern that is called expanded flat, and we have a lot of confluences at $79,000. That is why we have predicted that we will start seeing a reversal right here from $61,000. Well, and right now we are reclaiming this moving average trend line, and we are trying to push further to the upside.

Daily is still bullish, but something is going on on the lower time frames. We know that the C wave will take us with the highest probability towards $79,000. But, the thing is that there are multiple resistances that will be tough nuts to crack before the price can reach the possible final target of $79,000.

We know that technically there is lots of confluences at that $79,000. That means that it's a working hands-forth as a magnet. We know that technically there are loads of Fibonacci retracement levels from Elliott wave perspective. There is the first wave structure of this ABC.

We know also there is CME futures gap prediction plan that been created long time ago. It was in 18th of May. We have created this one, and it's still It is still the closest one in the current market structure, which is sitting at exactly $79,000.

If you push towards $79,000, it's going to be closed. And then, you know that the next closer one is going to be below us that we'll be talking about if we reach that $79,000. From the weekly time frame perspective, we also have the technical support that supports this prediction of pushing towards $79,000 because we are creating the fifth wave, which with the highest probability will take us towards $44,000, a level that

we are waiting for more than a year already, right? For more than a year, you know that we've been predicting already since 2025 that we will start pushing to the downside since we have finished our major bull run right here. This was the ending diagonal fifth wave, and the same wave, I do believe that this fifth wave will finish as an ending diagonal as well.

And we'll be talking about the specifics of this ending diagonal that will help us to understand what is going to be the price action with the highest probability of the current market. So, we know that from $121,000, then we have mapped this kind of trajectory of how we going to go with the highest probability towards that $44,000.

And as you can see, we are right now finishing the final fifth wave right here. So, we are waiting for the level $44,000 for a very long time. This has a big odds that we will hit this one because again, there are loads of confluences.

If you are watching these videos, you know exactly what kind of confluences we have there at $44,000 and why is it working as a strong magnet. So, fifth wave ending diagonal, that's a pattern that subdivides itself into five small waves. So, with the highest probability, we have already created this one, and right now, we will have a zigzag towards $79,000 as our major target, but we can finish that earlier.

We cannot forget that there is this huge moving average trend line that will be working as a very strong resistance and sitting exactly at $70,000. So, we'll be talking about it $70,000 today and after we will complete the secondary wave that might finish with the highest probability, maximum target will be around $79,000, but might finish already at lower resistances.

We will start doing with the highest probability the third wave of that ending diagonal, then we will have the fourth, and then the fifth wave might take us towards that magical level $44,000 that we are waiting for for already very long time, but you know that as a professional traders, we are not being stubborn with one level, right?

That wouldn't be professional and we would not be able to really get the kind of odds in our trading strategies on our side that aggressively because we need to understand that one level, we say one level that will hit from here, all right?

It's it's very low probability that we will be on point, right? Even though we have the confluences there, etc., but we cannot really go into this wishful thinking in this kind of like praying, I hope it's really going to hit. We know even though if somebody has 95% probability of something something happening, there's still the 5% chance that it's not going to happen, right?

So, even though we have been distributing our Bitcoins right here on $109,000 and 100 around $121,000. If you have been in Party Somewhere VIP, you know exactly what we are doing. We have been distributing our Bitcoins right here at the tops, but that doesn't mean that we are stubbornly waiting just for the one level to reaccumulate back everything at $44,000, right?

So, not only that, but we have this zone 55 to 44,000. That is the same zone back in 2022 was a reaccumulation zone around 24 to 15,000. That is this kind of zone of exchange of the hands. If you have watched the previous videos, you know exactly what I mean by that.

The companies that not been able to manage their risk well, they will need to sell in loss, they will need to capitulate, they will need to realize the losses they are holding right now. And the smart money that been waiting exactly for the situation that the bad risk managers, I would say, got themselves in.

They're waiting the smart money exactly for the situation, and they will absorb the selling pressure. And that's always how every single macro bottom is being created since 2011, right? So, ladies and gentlemen, because we are not this kind of believers, we are professional traders, we are working with probabilities, that also was one of the reasons why because we are focusing only on great opportunities, we have been reaccumulating some of our Bitcoins

back at 61,000, right? So, if you have been in Paradigm only VIP, you know exactly that we are also, together with doing futures trading, swings trading, day trading, scalp trading even, we are doing also scalp trading. We are also doing this kind of hard wallet rotations between Bitcoin USDT and also PAXG, which is digital gold.

We are doing these kind of rotations. Why? Because we have multiple capitals, right? So, we have portfolio that we are using for day trading and swing trading, and we are not compounding the profits there. Once we go through some winning streak, we withdraw the profits from an exchange, and we put it into our hard wallets, right?

And into in our hard wallets, we are doing this rotation, where we are reaccumulating and distributing Bitcoin, and we are rotating between USDT, PAXG, and Bitcoin based on the current market situation to make sure that we are securing our wealth, and we can safely grow it over time because we know that day trading strategies, they are much more riskier than this kind of reaccumulation, redistribution, compounding stuff that we are doing in

our hard wallets, right? So, we are doing it without any stop loss, but we have been strategically reaccumulating because it's basically like DCA strategy, right? Dollar cost averaging. So, really traders can have multiple strategies, and it really depends on how you size into each of them and how you are able with discipline to follow each of them over the long period of time.

That's really going to make a big difference if you're going to be long-term profitable or you're going to be just a trader for a season, right? That you will go through 1 to years, and then you will realize it's actually not for you, and you will pick up your losses, and you will find another hobby.

So, right now, $61,000 was a great point to reaccumulate. We have done exactly that, but we know that we are not getting aggressive into our reaccumulation. We have bought something back, but we are still waiting to aggressively reaccumulate once we get more confirmation.

So, the confirmation, there's lots of confluences right here. So, bottom confirmation, if we get at this zone right here, we will aggressively reaccumulate back. So, that's plan A. Plan B is if we will start showing a great strength, and we will start changing the market structure.

That will help us to understand, all right, the smart money are actually getting back in already, and we have enough power to start pushing towards our next target, $169,000. That didn't happen just yet, okay? That did not happen just yet, ladies and gentlemen, and that is why we are still holding back a lot of bullets in USDT, all right?

And before we start loading our bags aggressively again, we need to have more confirmations. They didn't come just yet. So, still I do believe there's much higher probability that once we are done with this secondary wave of that ending diagonal, we will see a drop to the downside.

Obviously, it's just a probability from this point of view that we are at right now. We are trading at 66,000 right now. It might change. So, that is why as a professional traders we need to monitor the markets 24/7. So, what we know about the C wave of that expanded flat is that it subdivided itself into five smaller waves, right?

So, with the highest probability right now, we have not yet finished the first wave, but once we finish it, we will start the secondary wave. And from our leverage trading perspective, the secondary wave will be a great opportunity, as we already spoke in the previous videos, to create some nice bullish trade signal, right?

To create some nice long signal for Bitcoin, because if we get enough confirmations, it will not only be a high probability trade to do, but also there will be a great opportunity, given that we will have invalidation level quite close to the entry price, to place a nice stop loss close to the entry price, and create some nice high risk reward trade.

So, you know that probabilities are not the only thing, right? As we already said, even if you have 95% probability on something, it's just a probability, not a certainty. So, there's always the chance, the 5% chance, that the trade will go against you, and that is why if you want to do professional trading profitably for over like multiple years, like 5, 10, you need to also involve into your trading strategy great

risk reward, right? So, everybody is focused only on win rate from the traders that are beginning, but much more important is actually risk reward. And it's always this kind of trade-off between risk reward and probability. Sometimes you might have not that good probability on a trade, but if you can really put your stop loss very close to the entry, you're going to take it, right?

Because like the the reward versus risk is so much more worth it. It's like in a business you're doing somethings that might not be profitable in the short run, but sometimes you might get lucky, right? So, it's like when you have bees, they have been here before us even like for millions and millions of years.

The only way they are able to survive is that basically not all of the bees are always going at the same place where they have sure source of pollen, right? Some bees and it's like 80% of bees they go to the environment where they know there are some flowers that have pollen, right?

And 20% of the bees from the beehive, they are called scouters and they go on random, all right? And most of the time they go back to home to the beehive with nothing, right? But one time out of 50 they get lucky, all right?

And it's the only reason why bees survive so many years, all right? For so many millions of years because of these 20% of bees. Because otherwise they would they would starve to death because of the local disaster. Sometimes some districts can catch on fire, right?

And if there wouldn't there wouldn't be that 20% of the bees that just scout for some new source of pollen, the beehive would die, all right? Because they they be also stuck in this kind of local maximum. So, you always need to involve a little bit a luck in your trading.

So, you need to understand that not only high probability trade setups are the ones that you should take. Sometimes, really focusing on risk reward is also a trading tactic that sometimes a trader, a professional trader, can use, right? And given that we know that the invalidation level will be very close once we start creating the secondary wave.

From the market structure, we know that the secondary wave cannot go below the start of the first wave, right? Then we also understand that the market, crypto market, is like low liquidity, high volatility environment. So, we're going to place it a little bit a little bit with some reserve not to be wicked out during the volatility.

But anyway, usually it's finishing at 0.618 of that previous length of the first wave. So, the entry might be around that $61,000, right? So, then if you want to be safe, you can put it like right here below 54, but it's not going to be with that high probability.

Necessary, it really depends on how you're going to be structuring your trade afterwards. You want to find those kind of confluences. So, below 56 might be enough, right? But anyway, even if you would place it below 54, you know that the last target you would have at 79.

So, this is a very nice risk reward, right? If you want to be a little bit more aggressive, you can place it just tightly below the start of the first wave. So, it's six versus 28. That's my my cup of tea, ladies and gentlemen.

That's my cup of tea. So, definitely, once we start creating the secondary wave, if we have enough confirmation that the market is taking an exhale, and you know the exhales, they have certain patterns, right? So, it might be zigzag, it might be expanded flat, it might be triangle even though that's not very usually for the secondary waves, but they have certain patterns, right?

And once we have enough confirmations that yes, the market is creating an exhale and we will see that there is going to be enough fuel for a short squeeze above us. We'll be watching that by monitoring fear and greed. We will monitor also funding rates.

That will be a great time to push the buy button and create a beautiful swing plus long setup, ladies and gentlemen. So, right now however, we are still finishing the first wave. So, let's take a look when the first wave is going to be finished with the highest probability.

So, in the previous video, we have been looking at the maximum target $67,000 if we will reclaim this previously acting resistance. And take a look at this zone. I have turned it into a green color. Why? Because it's acting as a support right now.

We have done a nice reclaim right here. Take a look at how previously this resistance been acting, ladies and gentlemen. So, take a look at that. This was the 786, right? And count with me how many times we have tested that. And here comes the rule number of a three.

So, once we have got a rejection from our resistance, second time and this was on Sunday. You know, that last video we have recorded on Saturday together. The price action was right here and I've been sharing with you this resistance. Look, second time we have tested that.

Rejection. Third time, rejection. That's the rule of three, right? One, two, three. And you need to understand that when you are the resistance is basically like a wall and more you smash to the wall with a hammer, right? The weaker the wall gets.

And usually is the number three that after a next touch, after number three, the wall will be broken. And voila, the next push went through, ladies and gentlemen, with nice volume. Then we have went back, retested with decreasement of volume, and that's exactly how reclaim, a proper reclaim, is being made, right?

So, in order for you not to be caught in fakeout, a lot of people see a breakout and they start buying, you need to wait for a reclaim as we are always talking about in these in these videos, right? So, this is exactly the reclaim that happened on Monday.

We have got the break with rising volume, retest of that level with declining volume, bears hence forth been weak, right? The momentum been decreasing as well. And voila, we got continuation of that breakout to the upside. So, what we what we said in the previous video was that if you will reclaim this resistance and turn it into a support, the next important resistance is going to be the 65 and 67,000 dollars,

right? So, 65, as you can see, was already one, two, third, three, fourth went in. You can see that on the on the lower time frame spectrum, the number three really works quite well most of the times. One, two, three, and the fourth the fourth attack basically went through.

And that means that right now we are going towards our 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is the second resistance we talked about at 67,000 dollars. Do I believe that it's going to hold? Well, definitely it's not going to be for a short setup, you know that.

Me, personally, I'm focusing for the longs, I'm focusing on the long setup. So, if I get if I get opportunity to start longing at around 60 to 61,000 dollars after I will see the secondary wave, I will go for it. Shorting at this moment, I don't see bearish divergence.

The momentum is increasing with the price action, which doesn't show me that the bulls would be getting somehow weaker. The CVDs is creating higher highs together with the price action. So, the aggressiveness is a still in the market. Open interest is increasing together with the CVD and also with the price action.

So, the commitment is coming in as the price is going further. So, the bulls are not getting exhausted at this moment. We can also see that on our funding rate, the probability of a squeeze right now, of a long squeeze on Bitcoin, we are talking about Bitcoin only in these videos, are just 4% and it's actually going to the section of short squeeze, right?

So, we can actually see that the funding rates on many exchanges like Bitget, OKX, BingX, Kraken are actually getting negative. So, people are actually shorting right now. All right? In in price action three upside, which is decreasing the possibility of long squeeze again at this moment.

Again, it might change, you know, that the market is volatile volatile. The the the things are changing all the time. So, that's why with the price team, we are monitoring for you the market 24/7 and if you are in price and VIP, you know exactly what actions we are doing live.

But right now, we can see that the funding rates are getting kind of negative on Bitcoin. So, look, 7% but in a in the short squeeze direction. So, long squeeze right now is a low probability. Altcoins are heating up a little bit but nothing crazy.

So, Bitcoin, we can see on the 4-hour time frame in our live crypto fear and greed index, that we are on the 4-hour time frame going to our magical number 80, right? So, a lot of greed is in the market, but it's not actually being supported by the actions of the people right now.

Since on Bitcoin, we can see a lot of people are actually trying to short the resistance, which is usually decreasing the the probabilities of a reversal, and it's actually increasing the probabilities that we will start pushing much higher up, right? Which doesn't mean that I would be longing at resistance, that's not really my cup of tea, the the way I play this, but it's also doesn't tell me that I should be

smashing the red button or taking taking the profits from buying the Bitcoin at $61,000 yet, right? So, on daily time frame, we have next important resistance at $70,000, which is confluencing with 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level on 4-hour time frame, and also $70,700. So, it's going to be a strong resistance.

However, we cannot forget that right now we are having an immediate resistance made out of two confluences of Fibonacci retracement levels on the medium time frame. We have also this ascending trend line, right? And on the medium time frame, unlike on the daily, so you can see on the daily we still have like plenty of time to go towards that area, right?

And the daily time frame on Fear & Greed Index, we are in neutral. Yes, the 4-hour is being around that number 80, so little warning sign, but the actions of the people are not really scaring me off right now, since I don't see many people going into extreme over-leveraged long positions based on understanding the funding rates.

So, what we can understand that we are right now finalizing the fifth wave of the hard degree. First wave, right? Of that impulse of that even hard degree primary C wave, right? I you are catching me. So, what we know about the fifth wave subdivides itself into five small waves.

So far, we have got one, two, three. Once we get a little bit of consolidation, we might have a fifth wave that will take us towards $69,000, where is the next important resistance. So, ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated about this price action in the next video.

Right now, there is a possibility of going a little bit sideways and then final push towards this level right here. But, be very careful. There are still some warning signs that we might see a reversal. So, right now, some over-leveraged positions, if you have not been entering at lower prices, is not really smart thing to do.

If you are thinking about shorting Bitcoin right now, I would think twice because there are not that much strong confluences to do so. So, let's get back on Thursday. We are monitoring the market 24/7 for you, ladies and gentlemen, and here on YouTube, I will keep you updated and I will show you again what I'm looking at on Thursday in the next video.

Cheers. >> Um, bro. Clear eyes. Work done. No rush. No rush. No dread. [music] Right time for snap. Clean setup. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. Clean [music] setup.