In short: In this breakdown, Simon says Bitcoin is compressing after weeks of consolidation and a large move is close. The higher probability points down first: longs look vulnerable with long squeeze probability back near 15 percent. He watches the 60,000 to 59,000 zone as the buying opportunity before any push toward 79,000.
What did Simon say Bitcoin will do next?
Simon says Bitcoin still looks bullish on the daily, but it needs power to push toward $79,000. Since June 2026 the market has consolidated after the drop from $81,000 to around $59,000, and volume keeps declining.
That compression is building tension. Simon expects a big move soon, similar to May. He frames the structure as an expanded flat, with the C-wave still expected to subdivide into five smaller moves.
Why are the longs vulnerable right now?
The long squeeze probability is back near 15 percent after dropping close to zero on the earlier push down. And funding rates stay positive on Bitcoin and major altcoins. Retail is pressing buy with leverage again, which Simon reads on the funding rates board as vulnerable longs.
On the 1 hour chart he sees bearish divergence: price made a lower high while the MACD histogram made a higher high. Aggressive buying is being absorbed near resistance, raising the squeeze odds.
What levels does Simon actually watch?
Simon flags immediate support at $63,600 to $63,200 and immediate resistance at the 0.618 Fibonacci level sitting at the current price. The next resistance on the 1 hour is $64,900.
He calls that resistance strong, with little probability of breaking above. If it does reclaim, the next important level is $67,000. Treat these as his stated levels, and size around them with a clear position sizing plan.
Where is the buying opportunity Simon flags?
Simon points to the $60,000 to $59,000 zone as a great buying opportunity, with enough confluences to place a tight stop-loss. On confirmation of the secondary wave, he sees a swing plus long setup targeting $79,000.
He notes the earlier chance near $61,000 has passed, so this next zone is the setup he is watching. More market breakdowns sit in the crypto analysis hub.
Frequently asked questions
Does Simon expect Bitcoin to go up or down next?
Simon says the daily is still bullish toward $79,000, but the near term probability favors a push down first. Longs look vulnerable, so he expects one more long squeeze toward the $60,000 to $59,000 zone before the larger upside move develops. And confirmations are still needed.
What is the long squeeze probability Simon mentioned?
On Thursday it sat around 16 percent, then dropped close to zero on the push down, and it is now back near 15 percent. Funding rates stay positive on Bitcoin and major altcoins, which Simon reads as longs being vulnerable again in the current market.
What did Simon say about Ripple?
With the Paradise VIPs, Simon says the Ripple position took target one and the stop-loss was secured to break even. He notes altcoins have been more vulnerable to a long squeeze, and there are still more targets left on that position to watch.
What levels should viewers watch from this video?
Simon flags immediate support at $63,600 to $63,200 and immediate resistance at the 0.618 Fibonacci near the current price, then $64,900 on the 1 hour. Above that, $67,000 is the next important resistance. His buying zone sits at $60,000 to $59,000, where he sees strong confluences.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned. It is what was said, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Bitcoin is about to have a massive move after multiple days of consolidation. The pressure is building and Bitcoin is getting ready to release the tension. What's going to be the move direction? Let's analyze the probabilities. >> [music] >> My [music] Crypto Paradise. >> Yello ladies and gentlemen Paradise Capital.
This is Ammon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. So Bitcoin on the daily time frame still looks bullish. We just need to have power to push towards that $79,000.
We are right now creating the pattern that we talked about in the previous videos that is called expanded flat pattern where the A wave and B wave of that expanded flat been already created and right now we are doing the C wave that will have with the highest probability five moves to the upside.
As we can see, the volume, the participation in the market is actually vanishing, right? So during this consolidation that we are doing since June 2026, we are consolidating after the big move that we have got the bearish price action from $81,000 towards around $59,000, the market is not really interested to pull the trigger.
Most of the people are hiding and that's visible on the volume. The volume is declining as the price is consolidating. Henceforth, the compression is developing and Bitcoin is about to release the tension very soon and we will have another big movement like we had during this price action on May very, very soon in my opinion and with the highest probability, it will be to the upside.
So first of all, we still have the bullish divergence playing. There is no bearish cross on the MACD. We are still in the bullish cross two times right here. We are right now getting close to the zero. So once we start pushing above it with those two lines, it will even increase the bullishness of the price action.
However, from the lower time frame perspective, we know that we are actually expecting the secondary wave of the C wave. This is the C wave, and it will subdivide itself into five small waves with the highest probability. So, we are expecting the secondary wave, this one on the lower time frame.
Henceforth, that's also the reason why in the previous videos, we've been expecting that with the highest probability, the market will push to the downside, and we talked about the support 60 to 59,000 dollars. As you can see, if we shift our focus right now on the 4-hour time frame, we have done the reclaim right here of this ascending trend line, and we have changed this from a support into a resistance.
So, with the Party Summit VIPs, we've been also taking a look at the altcoins. As you know, the altcoins been much more vulnerable for a long squeeze. So, we have called, for example, Ripple took target one, secured the stop loss to break even.
So, this position is already secured, and there, however, we have more targets. So, I still believe that the Bitcoin and overall crypto market might be going much lower, all right? And if you take a look at the funding rate, we can actually take a look at the probabilities of the long squeeze.
And in the previous video that I have recorded for you on Thursday, you remember that we have been around 16%, right? Then we have created this push to the downside, and we have decreased the long squeeze probability to around 0% if you have been watching with me the squeeze probability on our website, marketrebellion.com.
Well, and as we are going right now to the upside, as we have pushed to the upside, we have not been able to reclaim the support into resistance, as you can see. So, right now we are flirting with the moving average trend line on the 4-hour time frame, and people again started to push the buy button.
All right? So, the long squeeze probability is back at around 15%, and as you can see, the funding rates are still positive on Bitcoin and also on other important altcoins. All right? So, the long squeeze probability is right now back in play. Longs are vulnerable, and if we take a look on the 1-hour timeframe, we can actually take a look how much the retail is pressing the buy button and coming back
in the into the market with leverage. So, as you can see, on the price action, we have created lower high on the MACD histogram, higher high. This momentum is really beautifully shows us how much momentum the bulls are creating. However, they have not been able, with all of that momentum, to break the previous local high, and we have created lower high.
This is called bearish divergence, and we are very close from a bearish cross. If that's going to happen, it's going to be confirmed, and the probabilities will increase that we will start continuing the price action to the downside. So, right now, what we can see is absorption of the buying pressure, which is increasing the probabilities of a long squeeze.
Ladies and gentlemen, I would be very careful on the 1-hour timeframe, uh and definitely, with the Paradise team, we will be monitoring the MACD histogram, and we will be waiting for the cross. If the cross will happen in Paradise VIP, we might be doing another actions, but right now, you need to understand that from the 1-hour timeframe perspective, the momentum is increasing.
So, a lot of It's also visible on the cumulative volume delta. Uh there's very aggressive buying pressure going on, but the price is stalling near resistance at the resistance 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. So, it basically increases the probabilities that the aggressive buying pressure is being absorbed, which is increasing the odds of long squeeze.
All right, so I would definitely be very careful. Watch out for the momentum on MACD and also RSI and Stochastic RSI. As you can see, already getting the bearish cross. Ladies and gentlemen, this might be dangerous if the red line will also start pointing to the downside and this will increase the probabilities that the bears are back in power and they will be able to start pushing the price action to the
downside again. So, from a confirmation perspective, we are waiting also for the price to reclaim this moving average trend line because as you can see, after we have broken it to the upside, it's now working as a support again. So, definitely confirmations are needed, but at this moment, the probabilities are much lower that we will continue to go to the upside.
Much higher probabilities are that we will have one more long squeeze and there is enough fuel for that. As we can see, right? As we can see, there is enough fuel for that that we might really have that long squeeze again in the market.
So, from the 4-hour time frame perspective, the stuff is still the same as we are already repeating for many videos. 60 to 59,000 there is will be a great buying opportunity. Well, we have enough confluences at this zone, but if you will get enough confirmations that we are really creating the higher degree secondary wave, this will be a nice not only high probability trade possibility for a swing plus setup towards that
79,000 there is, but also a great risk reward given that we will be able to place our stop loss quite tightly given that we will be playing with a lot of supports right here. This will be one strong one. Then the structure is bullish.
The invalidation will be quite close to the to the entry price. And if we are correct, we might be taking our last take profit target at that $79,000. So another great buying opportunity if you have missed the buying opportunity at around $61,000 upon the confirmations we have had in the past days.
This will be another great opportunity to create actually a high probability long trade setup. Not only reaccumulation, all right, but this will be a great long setups from swing plus a perspective given that we will be able to place our stop loss very very nicely.
So the confirmations will be needed. However, I will keep you updated in the upcoming videos. How it looks like, ladies and gentlemen, right now. Make sure that you understand this is still acting as a support, all right. $63,600 to $63,200 immediate support. If we take a look at the immediate resistance, I can show you right here.
We are exactly at that immediate resistance. 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is sitting exactly at the current market price. That's why you also see the price action really struggling with continuing to the upside. And the next immediate one on the one-hour time frame is at $64,900.
So, ladies and gentlemen, we can assume that this resistance is going to be very strong. And there's very little probability that we will go above it. If we will, however, the next important resistance will be $67,000 as you know already from the previous video.
So if this resistance zone will be reclaimed, $67,000 will be the next important resistance from the medium time frame perspective. However, right now the probability suggests that much higher probability is given that the longs are right now vulnerable that we will start seeing the push to the downside towards this support zone at 60 to 59,000 dollars.
So, definitely if you're in a long position, I would be careful. I would be careful, ladies and gentlemen. Again, the same thing I have been telling you right here, the longs are again vulnerable. All right? So, stay safe. Try to have a professional trading strategy.
Focus on long-term profitability, ladies and gentlemen. I will see you again on Tuesday. Cheers. >> I'm burning. Clear eyes. Work done. Now I ride. No rush. No dread. >> [music] >> Right time for snack. Clean setup. Clean click. >> [music] >> Execute like [singing] a pro.
That's it. Clean setup.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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