In short: In this session Simon reads Bitcoin as net long while it trades near $63,000. He flags a $79,000 options max pain with $13 billion expiring June 26th, sitting above price and acting like a magnet. His liquidation map shows roughly $15 billion in short liquidations stacked toward $79,000 versus only $3 to $4 billion below, plus $80M, $69M and $67M whale buy walls defending $62,000 to $61,700. He puts about 75% probability on a push toward $79,000, with a daily close below $60,800 invalidating the bullish structure.
Why does Simon lean bullish on Bitcoin near $63,000?
Simon leans net long because the data stacks upward. Roughly $15 billion in short liquidations sit toward $79,000 versus only $3 to $4 billion below current price. Whale buy walls defend $62,000 to $61,700, and the path of least resistance points higher, not lower.
What is the $79,000 max pain and $13 billion expiry about?
Options max pain is the price where the most option holders lose value at expiry. Simon notes max pain sits at $79,000 with $13 billion in options expiring June 26th, well above the $63,000 spot price. He treats it as one more confluence pulling price toward $79,000 like a magnet.
He stresses this is not the only reason. The $79,000 level already lined up with a CME futures gap and the top of a prior first-wave structure across earlier sessions. Each added confluence, he says, makes the level more magnetic, and price is naturally attracted to it.
What does the liquidation map show for Bitcoin here?
Simon’s liquidation map shows a large imbalance. If Bitcoin reaches $79,000, roughly $15 billion of accumulated short leverage gets liquidated. A move the same distance down would only clear about $3 to $4 billion. That asymmetry, he argues, favours an upside squeeze.
How are whales defending the downside?
On the bid side, Simon points to stacked buy walls. At $62,000 he reads an $80 million buy wall, at $61,700 around $69 million, and a further $67 million wall below that. Whales, he says, are defending $62,000 to $61,000 hard, which makes pushing price down expensive.
Above price, the picture flips. Up to $79,000 there are few meaningful sell limit orders, leaving what he calls an empty spot. He cautions this can include spoofing, and fresh walls may appear. Still, the current read favours the least-resistance path being higher.
Simon builds these reads from live derivatives data. You can watch funding rates and squeeze conditions across all major exchanges on the MCP Crypto Funding Rates page. It shows how positioning shifts around key levels.
What do funding rates and the Fear and Greed Index say?
Simon reports the downside squeeze probability fell from about 20% in the prior video to roughly 16%. Funding rates are turning neutral, with a few edging negative. The daily Fear and Greed Index reads 20, meaning the market is beginning to get fearful.
Why does fearful positioning help the bullish case?
Simon explains that once funding rates flip positive and traders bet on continuation lower, that crowded short side becomes fuel. Squeezing those positions, he says, creates a smoother ride to the upside. That has not fully happened yet, but the setup is building in that direction.
How high does Simon think Bitcoin can push?
Simon puts around 75% probability on a push toward $79,000 as the secondary wave of an ending diagonal. He frames it as probability, not certainty. It is far more likely, in his read, than price falling from here toward the $55,000 to $44,000 reaccumulation zone.
What is the Elliott wave structure he describes?
On the weekly, Simon expects a reaccumulation zone bounded by $55,000 above and $44,000 below. That is why the team distributed Bitcoin near $109,000 and $121,000. On the daily, he sees a leading diagonal forming the first wave before that final extended fifth wave plays out.
He maps the near-term path in waves: a sideways fourth-wave correction, likely a triangle, then a push toward the next resistance. His breath metaphor, inhale and exhale, tracks each impulse and correction, with the fourth wave expected to alternate against a deep, short second wave.
Where is the invalidation and what are the key levels?
Simon’s line in the sand is $60,800. A daily close, or even a wick, below that invalidates the bullish leading-diagonal structure. Above it, he sees immediate support at $63,000, immediate resistance near $64,500, and strong resistance at $65,000 where the 1.272 Fibonacci confluences.
Which resistances come next on the way up?
Past $65,000, Simon looks to the $69,000 to $72,000 zone, with $70,000 as a spot where the fifth wave might finish. An ascending trend line will resist depending on how fast price travels. The RSI moving-average trend line sits near $66,000 as another marker.
What confirmation signals is Simon watching?
Simon wants a breakout on rising volume, then a retest of prior resistance turned support on declining volume. He got a partial version, but volume stayed below the moving-average trend line. He grades it a solid seven out of ten, not an A-plus setup. Honesty over hype.
How does he score a trade before taking it?
Simon runs each data point, reclaim, RSI, MACD, volume, price action, on a zero-to-ten probability scale, then combines them into a single read. Only then does he decide whether to trade, how aggressively, and where to place targets and stops. It is layered, not a single bullish call.
Why is he avoiding short trades right now?
Simon says swing shorts offer poor risk reward here. With heavy support below, a proper stop would sit near $73,000, and the probability is not good either. He would rather wait for a push higher before hunting short setups, echoing Jesse Livermore on the value of sitting on your hands.
Video breakdown: Simon’s key takeaways
Simon frames the whole session around protecting capital and waiting for A-plus setups. He and the Paradise team approached the market net long because the data, from liquidations to funding to whale walls, leaned that way. He avoided the earlier fake-out breakout to keep capital ready for clearer opportunities.
The core message: probability, not prediction. $79,000 is the confluence magnet, $60,800 is the invalidation, and every level between is a read to be updated as new data arrives. Nothing here is a guarantee, and he repeats that trading survival comes from discipline and position sizing.
Frequently asked questions
What is Bitcoin options max pain at $79,000?
Max pain is the price where the largest number of option holders lose value at expiry. Simon notes it sits at $79,000 with $13 billion expiring June 26th, above the $63,000 spot. He treats it as a confluence that can pull price higher, not a guarantee it reaches that level.
What is Simon’s invalidation level for the bullish case?
Simon’s invalidation is $60,800. A daily close, or even a wick, below that point invalidates the bullish leading-diagonal structure he describes. If that happens, he says the probability shifts toward a downside push, and he would wait for fresh confirmation rather than position for it immediately.
Why does the liquidation imbalance favour the upside?
Simon’s map shows roughly $15 billion in short liquidations stacked toward $79,000 versus only $3 to $4 billion below current price. That asymmetry means an upside move clears far more leverage, which he reads as the path of least resistance for market makers seeking liquidity.
What probability does Simon give a move toward $79,000?
Simon puts about 75% probability on a push toward $79,000 as the secondary wave of an ending diagonal. He is explicit that this is probability, not certainty. He considers it far more likely than a drop from here toward the $55,000 to $44,000 weekly reaccumulation zone.
Why is Simon avoiding short trades in this session?
Simon says shorts offer poor risk reward here. Heavy support below would force a stop near $73,000, and the probability is weak. He prefers to wait for price to push higher before seeking short setups. He cites Jesse Livermore on the discipline of sitting on your hands until a clear opportunity appears.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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