In short: In this breakdown Simon stays bullish on the daily Bitcoin structure but bearish on the weekly. He is watching whether aggressive buying near resistance gets absorbed or accepted. A confident break above 64,800 within two days keeps bulls alive, while a reclaim of 62,500 opens a long setup at 61,000 to 59,000.
Is Simon bullish or bearish on Bitcoin right now?
Track it live: our live crypto funding rates updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
Simon holds two views at once. On the weekly timeframe he is bearish, with the market structure still pointing toward the 44,000 mark as a final fifth wave. On the daily timeframe he is bullish.
On the daily chart the A and B waves are complete. Simon expects the C wave to drive price toward 79,000. That level carries heavy confluence, so he treats it as a magnet and a strong resistance wall.
From that wall he expects a rejection back below the previous low of 58,000. You can follow his running read in the Bitcoin analysis breakdowns.
What Bitcoin levels is Simon watching?
The key line is 62,500, the low of the E-wave. A break below opens the path toward his buying area at 61,000 to 59,000. Until that breaks, Simon cannot confirm the fifth wave is finished.
On the 4 hour chart he still sees a possible ending diagonal toward 69,000. If price reaches 69,000, he would be interested in a short. His target from there sits at 61,000 to 59,000.
On the 1 hour chart, support sits near 63,300 and 62,900. Resistance caps price at 64,800 and 64,400. He wants a confident break and retest before trusting continuation.
Will the aggressive buying be absorbed or accepted?
This is the video’s core question. On the 1 hour chart price is pushing into resistance. The buying looks aggressive, with cumulative volume delta rising from around 63,800.
Open interest has printed a much higher high as futures positions stack up. Simon notes the sell walls are already absorbing some of that pressure. This positioning shows up on the crypto funding board.
If bulls cannot reclaim resistance quickly, that buying gets absorbed. Price would then likely push lower toward the 62,500 support. Simon wants a confident break within two days, or he expects a reversal.
How does Simon plan to trade this setup?
Simon is patient here. He wants confirmation of the secondary wave before opening a leveraged long at 61,000 to 59,000. That setup only triggers once market makers show they are buying.
The stop loss would be tight, placed below the low. He may set it under the 1.272 Fibonacci level, with exit targets near 79,000. That gives him a strong risk reward.
Simon frames trading like poker, where you size your bet to the odds. He puts survival first and builds the plan around losing streaks. His focus on risk and position sizing keeps the account alive.
Frequently asked questions
Is Simon bullish or bearish on Bitcoin?
Both, depending on the timeframe. On the weekly chart Simon is bearish, with the structure still pointing toward the 44,000 mark. On the daily chart he is bullish, reading an expanded flat that should send the C wave toward 79,000 before a rejection lower.
What is the key Bitcoin level in this video?
The 62,500 level, the low of the E-wave, is the pivot Simon watches. A clean break below it raises the odds that price moves toward his buying area at 61,000 to 59,000. Until 62,500 breaks, he cannot confirm the fifth wave is complete.
Where would Simon look to go long?
Simon is waiting for the secondary wave before a leveraged long at 61,000 to 59,000. He needs confirmation that market makers are buying at that zone. His stop would sit tight below the low, possibly under the 1.272 Fibonacci level, with targets near 79,000.
What does absorbed versus accepted mean here?
Accepted buying means price holds the push and breaks resistance, so the trend continues higher. Absorbed buying means sell walls soak up the aggressive orders near resistance. Simon warns that if bulls do not reclaim resistance within two days, the pressure gets absorbed and a reversal grows likely.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Bitcoin is trading inside of our resistance zone while open interest and CBD are creating higher highs. Will this aggressive buying pressure be absorbed or accepted? Let's analyze the probabilities. >> [music] >> My Crypto [music and singing] Paradise >> Yo, ladies and gentlemen, my Crypto Paradise.
This is Simon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to have you here. Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. So, ladies and gentlemen, on the weekly time frame, I am still bearish even though on the daily time frame, I am bullish.
Let me explain. So, on the weekly time frame, we still believe that with the highest probability, we will push towards that $44,000 mark with the fashion of final fifth wave being an ending diagonal, right? So, the structure, the wave structure should look something like this.
The first wave already completed, secondary wave taking us towards $79,000, third wave taking us to this zone made out of upper boundary of 55, lower boundary 44,000. Then we will have the fourth wave and then final fifth wave should touch the base with that $44,000 that we are waiting for since 2025.
So, right now, weekly time frame still bearish, the market structure is bearish. Let's take a look on the daily time frame because I'm bullish there since I understand that the market structure is actually bullish. So, we are creating a formation of an expanded flat, ladies and gentlemen, where we have completed the A and B wave.
The C wave should take us towards $79,000. As you know, lots of confluences there at this level, it's working as a magnet and not only that, because it's having so much confluences, it's going to be also a very strong resistance, all right? Very strong wall from where the Bitcoin price should get rejected and take us below the previous low of 58,000 dollars.
All right, so what we know about the C wave that should take us towards 79,000 dollars is that it's going to be an impulse, right? And the impulse will divide itself into five smaller waves. You know that we have been with Party Samurai VIPs already reaccumulating some Bitcoin right here.
However, for a nice long position with leverage, I'm waiting for the secondary wave. If I will get enough confirmations that the market is really taking an exhale before the next inhale, I will be interested in creating a long position at 61 to 59,000 dollars.
And if you are in Party Samurai VIP, you will know about my position. The position will be a great because it will not only be high probability trade setup, but also a great risk reward trade setup, right? So, we will be able to place our stop loss as tight as possible if you decide to take this, if you get enough confirmations at the zone.
And the stop loss will be very tight because the invalidation of the bullish market structure is below this low. We will also take a look at some volatility spectrum, so we're probably going to place it below some other confluences, maybe below that 1.272 Fibonacci retracement level, but that doesn't matter because the stop loss will still be much tighter than our exit targets.
You know that our last exit targets will be around 79,000 dollars. As you can see, this is a great risk reward trade setup, right? So, I will be definitely looking for this, creating something like this from a swing trading perspective, but first I need to see the confirmation of creating the secondary wave and then confirmations at the zone that the market makers are starting to buy.
So, market structure is bullish on the daily time frame. What we can see on the MACD is actually a bearish divergence, right? So, we have created uh since 6th of July, we've been creating higher highs. That was the final push of this bullish structure that we have started since 30th of June.
So, higher highs, but since then, the MACD has stopped creating higher highs, right? Here, it was going nicely with the price action. Higher highs on the price action, higher highs on the MACD histogram, but then, as we are pushing higher, the momentum started to slow down, and we have been actually creating a divergence, right?
The the momentum been creating lower highs. So, that's also why we have started to reject afterwards, right? We have started to reject, and right now, we are having a bearish cross and possible reclaim is going to happen right here if the red line is going to hold.
If that's going to happen, ladies and gentlemen, we will start pushing lower, and it will increase the probabilities that we are already starting the secondary wave. And let's take a look on the 4-hour time frame. It will actually predict that we might be reclaiming that low of the E wave at $62,500, right?
So, once we get a reclaim on the MACD histogram on the daily time frame on those lines, it will predict that the probabilities will increase that we will also reclaim the low of the E wave at $62,500. If we will get that, then the probabilities will increase rapidly that we will start pushing towards that my buying area at 61 to 59,000 dollars.
However, it have not happened just yet. We might do something similar what we have done on the RSI indicator. As you can see, we have tried to do a reclaim, but it broke back. The RSI broke above the moving average RSI trend line back back above it, right?
And the reclaim failed to happen. So, something similar more happen right here. This daily close, the next two daily closes will be very important. So, with Paradise team we are watching the market structure as hawks. We can see clearly that we are having a bullish divergence on the daily time frame.
Take a look at this, higher low right here. Take a look at this, higher low and lower low on the MACD histogram. So, what it tells us? It tells us that all of that momentum been actually absorbed, right? So, all that bearish pressure been absorbed and the bears been much stronger than on creating this low, as you can see.
And they have pushed a lot. They have really exhausted themselves and they have not been able to break below the previous low with that with that momentum. So, it seems like all of that bearish pressure been absorbed, which is called a bullish divergence.
And once we get that cross, if the blue line is going to cross back above the red line, it's going to be confirmed. It's already confirmed by three momentum of the histogram candles creating higher lows. So, there's already some probability that this is a successful bullish divergence, but you know that you can read this indicator as a professional and basically you as a professional you are working with probabilities, right?
So, everything having its own probabilities. It's nothing like bullish divergence is same like every bullish divergence. No, trading is like a poker, all right? Sometimes you have better hands, sometimes you have worse hand. And thanks to the structure of poker, you can actually understand the probabilities of you winning and based on that you can size your bet.
The same way with these indicators and with analyzing the market in crypto, you can actually calculate the probabilities as well and then decide for yourself, should I take a position? And if yes, how much should I should I size it? Okay? And based on that, if you going to get good at it, in 5-10 years, you will have a streaks, variations of streaks, right?
And if you have been doing it correctly, during the winning streaks, you are winning much more than what you are losing during the losing streaks, all right? Most of the beginners not thinking about losing streaks at all, all right? And that's how they get wiped out.
You need to build your strategy around the losing streaks, just not to get wiped out. That should be your main priority, survival, right? And then the edge from your good trades will take care of itself, right? So, ladies and gentlemen, once we get that cross, it will increase the probabilities of that bullish divergence, yeah?
Right now, I would say like this is already 75% bullish divergence. If we get another confirmations like that break, it will increase it. If we get also reclaim, it will increase it that the continuation can can happen. So, ladies and gentlemen, let's take a look right now on the 4-hour time frame.
So, daily time frame I'm bullish, all right? There's nothing to be bearish about. Uh but what we are trying to spectate on the 4-hour time frame is if we have already finished the first motive wave structure of that five waves that might take us toward that $79,000, right?
That will be important because not only there will be an opportunity to create a short position on a medium time frame, but also already looking forward towards the secondary wave and prepare ourselves to create the longer opportunity at that 61 to $59,000. So, let's take a look at it.
So, the first wave structure is going to be finished if it finishes its five waves, all right? So, let's take a look on the 4-hour time frame if we have created five waves already. 1 2 3 4, that was the skewed triangle made out of five subwaves, A B C D E, right?
So, this was definitely a fourth wave. And then, what is not so definite if this was the final fifth wave. All right, until we can break below the previous low, the low of that fourth wave, which is the e-wave, which is sitting exactly at $62,500, we cannot say with almost no certainty that we have created the fifth waves just yet.
Why? Because this final fifth wave was not really clear. A lot of guidelines not been respected. So, until we break and reclaim like this the the $62,500, ladies and gentlemen, there is actually a higher probability that we are creating still the fifth wave in a fashion of an ending diagonal that might take us towards $69,000.
So, if we get there to $69,000, I will really be interested into shorting there because it will be high probability and also a great risk reward on the trade. Once we If that's going to be a success, I will be shorting towards that 61 to 59,000 dollars.
All right, so that's my game plan. If, however, we will start before hitting $69,000, reclaiming the $62,500, not only from scalping perspective, this might be a nice shorting opportunity. And if you're in scalping membership, you will know about it if you decide to short it.
But also from a swing trading perspective, I will start preparing myself into creating a long position at that 61 to 59,000 dollars zone. All right. So, ladies and gentlemen, that's my game plan. All right. On the one hour time frame, we can see, let's take a look what's what's happening on the one hour time frame, that we are actually stuck between two important zones.
All right, so right now we are pushing into this resistance on quite aggressive cumulative volume delta that started right here at around $63,800. A lot of people started to aggressively smashing the buy button with high leverage. All right, that's what's creating this aggressive cumulative volume delta.
Together with that, the open interest been actually creating a higher high, much higher high than the previous. The previous been right here, right? Take a look at this. On the open interest, we have created basically a lot of positions been opened on this push from from around $62,800.
A lot of positions, a lot of futures positions, all right? And we are pushing right now into those sell walls that actually absorbing of that buying pressure. So, if we will not be as fast as possible to reclaim this resistance, all of that buying pressure will be absorbed and we will start pushing lower and it will increase the probabilities that we will start breaking below that and reclaiming $62,500.
So, that is why it's so important to watch multiple time frames on the market because something that happens on the like lower time frame can give you a hint of increasement of probabilities what's going to happen on the higher degree time frame. And on this time frame, it will give you a hint about this time frame, etc.
And then you combine it together and you can you can understand when to get out of positions, if you should enter position, if you should exit earlier, etc., right? So, multi-time frame analysis very important. Most of the traders are looking at just one time frame and they believe that it's enough.
Now, if you want to have like a lot of probabilities on your trading ideas, you should really gather as much data as you can, right? You should be gathering as much data as you can. So, it's like that then you being a super poker player.
The poker player that can also read other players, he is a super poker player. He's basically having more data in his arsenal and he can basically be doing better decisions thanks to that. More data equals better decisions, right? So, if you take a look below us, we are having a nice nice zone made out of two Fibonacci retracement levels.
One of them is 0.618 Fibonacci, which is everywhere. It's shaping the human emotions. So, this is the strongest Fibonacci level and 0.786, all right? Which on the one hour time frame equals something around $63,300 and $62,900. That's our low time frame support. On the resistance side, we are being covered by again two levels, uh $64,800 and $64,400.
If you will start reclaiming, and as you can see, we have tried two times to break above this upper boundary of that resistance zone, but I want to see a very confident break, all right? Push above it and then retest. This will be changed into a support and then the probabilities of continuation of this trend will increase.
However, I really want that to happen in maximum 2 days, otherwise all of the bullish pressure will be really absorbed, all of that aggressiveness, and it will increase the probabilities of an aggressive reversal to the downside, okay? So, ladies and gentlemen, and if you will start reclaiming the this support zone on the one hour time frame again, it will hint us that with highest probability we are going to attack that medium
time frame $62,500 support, all right? So, watch out for that. With Paradise TV, we are monitoring the market 24/7. We're going to keep you updated. And here on YouTube, I will record for you again on Saturdays. So, until then, take care, trade safe, trade with professional trading strategy.
Focus on risk first, profit second. Profits basically are this kind of outcome of a great process. It's like when somebody starts a business. Most of the people start business because they want to make money, which is usually wrong, and that's also why 99% of businesses fail, right?
But if somebody is starts business because they want to make something better, they want to improve other people's life, the money comes as a side product of that process, of that good business, right? The money basically this going to be the outcome of that good business process.
Right? It's the same thing with trading. Most of the people start trading because they want to make money. Very little of people start trading because for the love of the game. There's the difference. All right, ladies and gentlemen, I'll keep you updated on Saturday.
Until then, take care. Cheers. >> Calm, bro. Clear eyes. Work done. No rush. No rush. No trade. >> [music] >> Right time for snap. Clean setup. Clean click. >> [music] >> Execute like a pro. That's it. Clean setup. Clean
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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