Bitcoin Bull Market Back? Simon Turns Bearish on Daily

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If Bitcoin dumps back towards [music] $61,000, our buy zone, more than $15 billion worth of long positions will be liquidated. So, what is the probability that [music] the crypto Twitter influencers who are saying that the bull market is back are wrong? Let's analyze.

>> [music] >> My crypto [music and singing] paradise. >> Hello, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Carlos. This is Simon from Market Rebellion. Welcome back. It's great to hear. Today is Tuesday, and that means that you're watching the first video of this week.

So, as we can see, there is a massive imbalance on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map. As we can see, if we will start pushing to the upside towards around $89,000, we will liquidate only $1 billion worth of short positions. And if we will go a similar direction to the downside, we will liquidate almost $13 billion.

And if we will revisit the important level from where we started to reaccumulate our Bitcoin back, right? You all remember that almost 1 month ago and few days extra, we understood that right here, not the thing that everybody else was telling you that we will keep on dumping lower and lower is going to happen, but that we will see a reversal with a higher probability and that we will start pushing towards

our magical number $79,000. We understood that this is going to happen with the higher probability. Right now, we can see that if we will start pushing back to that level, to that magical number $61,000, we will liquidate almost how much? We will liquidate around 16 plus billion dollars worth of long positions because the people that missed the buying opportunity, which was the only one great risk reward buying opportunity right here at

$61,000. They are right now trying to get into that rally. But usually these people with a lot of leverage, they are usually late. And right now they they might be helping fueling the long squeeze that with the highest probability is going to happen.

So no longer I'm bullish on the daily time frame. You know that I have been bullish all the way for multiple months during the whole summer. I've told you we are going up, right? The we are going up with the highest probability. We will revisit the $79,000 number.

And right now I can tell you I am actually turning my bias from bullish. For many months I have been bullish, but right now I'm turning my bias bearish on the daily time frame, okay? So I'm bearish on the daily time frame. On the weekly time frame I'm bearish as well.

On the 4-hour time frame we will be talking about it. On the low time frame, ultra low time frame, we were bullish for some time. That is also why with parity some of the VIPs we have been catching some scalp long position on Bitcoin and we have just taken target two at around $79,500.

Not around, but exact. We always before we enter a position we know where we going to get out. So we don't have this kind of dopamine rush because of an unexpected reward. We always know where we going to get out if we are wrong.

And we also know where we going to get out if we are correct. So we don't feel greed. We don't feel this kind of oh my god, if I would just hold it a little bit longer, I might earn much more money. Let me hold it.

Let's not take profits. No, we are not like this, right? So we We have dopamine rushes. We don't have positive dopamine rush if we are correct. That's why we are not primed to these kind of fear of missing out biases and we are also not basically sad if we will hit stop loss because we know exactly how much we risk on that position before we enter the position and that is why

we also don't have this negative prediction error that would push our dopamine firing rate below the baseline, which would make us immediately try to make the loss back, right? So, we are always at the baseline with our dopamine. That is why we can be working without emotions and that is why we can be following the process and not just seeking the outcome, the money, not chasing the rabbit, right?

So, we are letting the rabbit to come to us. If it's going to fall in our trap, we get it and we are making a nice killing and have a food, right? But if the rabbit is going to go around the trap, we don't care.

We're going to wait another day. We have a lot in our reserves, right? A lot of meat in our reserves. So, this is the kind of mindset a professional traders have. It's boring because we are not getting these kind of dopamine rushes, but again, the market's going to give you how you treat it, right?

So, if you are treating the market as a casino, it's going to give you casino results, right? You will have lots of spikes of dopamine and lots of big returns, but then also you will have a lot of losses, right? So, usually the gamblers, how they are acting is that they are taking small profit, small profit.

So, they are keeping their dopamine firing rate at a big positive, right? And then they have one big loss or few big losses, but your basically neurons don't actually understand if it was a big loss or if it was a small loss. They just understand when good fire fire faster, right?

Loss bad fire slower, but then if you get into another position and you just see a little bit of green, the dopamine rate is back up and that's what's keeping you in the game. That's why gamblers are basically sitting in front of the slot machines and like a zombies just pulling the lever, right?

It's like It's like the traders right now having an app like Binance or any other exchange, it's extremely frictionless. You can just put it out of your pocket and on your phone you can be basically smashing this button and it's working exactly as a lever on a slot machine, right?

You're just You're just treating your dopamine spikes and which makes you feel good, but in the long run it's going to lose you money like this, right? Professional traders on the other hand, it's very boring. We lose small most of the time and then during some winning streaks we we win big, right?

And then again small losses small losses or break evens doing nothing patience, discipline, very boring and then bang. So for us we need to find some other activities where we will increase our dopamine, right? That is why professional traders really like aggressive sports, high adrenaline sports.

Why we like meditation, why we like walks in nature, because we want to keep most of the time the dopamine at baseline, right? And when we want some dopamine spike, we go and do some other activities where we get it, but not on the market, right?

So, if you will treat the market as a businessman, it will give you business results, right? So, it will always give you how you going to treat it, right? So, ladies and gentlemen, on the weekly time frame, I'm still bearish, all right? With the highest probability, we are creating this kind of ending diagonal.

We need to finish that fifth wave. Take a look at this. We have not yet went through the exchange of the hands. So, there was no capitulation. Henceforth, we can assume that given that since 2011, every time when we created some macro bottom, we needed to have the capitulation.

People and institutions that have not been able to basically manage their risk well, they needed to capitulate, and the smart money needed to absorb that selling pressure in order for us to be satisfied and have enough liquidity to actually create the next rally to the upside.

It's all about liquidity. But, if everybody is holding Bitcoin, right? And everybody already bought, who is going to push it then? Like, it doesn't make sense, right? So, you need to have this kind of capitulations, right? So, then smart money can actually trigger the start of the rally, then start pushing Bitcoin like everywhere again, but positively.

And then the people that actually panic sold and also have been forced to sell right here, they can then buy again at the top, right? And then the smart money have enough liquidity to again distribute, right? And the cycle repeats. So, as you can see, we were close to the capitulation, but not just yet, all right?

Take a look at the latest example, bear market in 2022. There was a nice time below the zero capitulation number. We the price action started to go in sideways, right? So, the absorption has been happening, and then we were able to start pushing to the upside, yeah?

So, the absorption has been happening right here, and then bang, we have started to push to the upside when we have started that beautiful bull market. So, we were not We were not buying, as you remember, we were not buying right here. We were actually aggressively reaccumulating and calling for a bull market during the secondary wave, right?

Of the higher degree first wave. So, right here, what was very important for us was the retest of that moving average trendline. So, we had First of all, we had a nice push above the moving average trendline with nice volume above the moving average volume trendline, and then a retest, and we have reclaimed that level, yeah?

So, break and retest. This was a beautiful bullish hammer candlestick pattern, right? So, that was where we started to call, and we called exactly where this secondary, if you remember, wave is going to stop at exactly $19,500. We have pushed that also exactly on our free Telegram channels.

So, if you are not in our free Telegram channel, definitely join there. We are pushing there a lot of important information, free insights for you, because we really want to make sure that you are being long-term profitable, and then we have started to call the bull market, right?

And then we have started to distribute Bitcoin right here, because we have already finished at $109,000, the major bull rally, and then we have also distributed at $121,000, around that level, and then we have started to call that we need to start pushing to the downside towards this reaccumulation zone, 55 to $44,000, right?

And as you can see, we have touched that almost, but I'm not satisfied. I'm not satisfied, ladies and gentlemen. I have not seen the capitulation. I have not seen that we have touched the zone that is extremely important for the liquidity to have to really create the new bull market that will basically top at $169,000 with the highest probability, okay?

So, still I do believe that the fifth wave has not finished, all right? And we need to right now create the next wave of that ending diagonal, go below that previous low $58,000, then we will have the fourth wave, and then the final fifth wave, and there's very high probability that we will touch that magical number $44,000.

So, right now on the weekly time frame, we are touching our resistance at around $82,000. And ladies and gentlemen, right now I am really not bullish on the weekly. So, with the Party of Satoshi VIPs, we have already distributed our Bitcoin based on our plan around at $79,000, all right?

So, on the daily time frame, I am bearish for some smart short positions, I'm still waiting for more confirmations. I want to see the C wave of this expanded flat to be finished, you know that it subdivide itself into five small waves. We have not finished that five yet, so right now we need to create the fourth wave, and then the final fifth wave, as we have understood in the previous video

already with the highest probability it's going to be truncated given that we have already touched the important level. Right now, we are closing a daily candle in about 10 hours 50 minutes, we will close a daily candle. As you can see, there's a high probability it will close as a shooting star candlestick pattern that you usually can see on top of some uptrends, okay?

So, be very careful about this. It will tell us that the bears are extremely strong, so the bulls basically tried to push it, right? Tried to break above my important $79,000 level, it's my magical number $79,000, all right? $79,000, they tried to push it, but as you can see, they tried a lot, right?

For multiple days, they are trying to close a daily candle above that $79,000. They are unsuccessful. Right now, they really pushed a lot. They tried to put a lot of energy into it, but the volume has not even been bigger than on this high right here.

So, price action, we have created higher high, but on the volume, we have a divergence. We have created lower high, which is telling us the participation of bulls is decreasing. There's not much other bulls to keep on buying, all right? So, bulls are getting weaker, and on the momentum, on 4-hour time frame, we can see that we are also decreasing the momentum, all right?

So, we are also having bearish divergence on both of our momentum indicators. On the On the MACD, we can see that we have created a bearish cross already right here. So, this telling me that this is just a corrective wave structure. I will be talking about it.

And on the RSI, we have got a bearish cross right here as well. And right now, we have got this beautiful signature break and retest of mine. That's my signature move, right? Break and retest. If we get this, there is such a high probability.

It's increasing the probability extremely, as I always tell you, that there is going to be continuation in that direction, all right? It basically tells us, all right, this was previously working as a support. Right now, after this break, we have retested that, and it's acting as a resistance.

That's usually telling us, all right, there is going to be a continuation. It's not certain, but the probabilities are pretty high, all right? So, bearish divergence on the RSI, bearish divergence on MACD, on the Stochastic RSI, we have both legs looking to the downside and bearish cross as well.

If I would be a bull, I would be kind of worried. All right? But given that a lot of people are right now in long positions as we can see on our funding rates that you can for free check out on our website marketcap.com, we can see a lot of people don't actually care about what we are seeing right here and they are very happily positioned in long positions.

They are also very greedy. They feel greedy. The sentiment is visible on our live crypto fear and greed index. We are still hovering around that number magical number 80. You know that when we can confluence the number 80 with some important resistance, right?

Which we can on multiple time frames, ladies and gentlemen, it's usually working as a top end signal, right? So confluence that with a shooting star candlestick if it's going to close it in 10 hours like that, it's pretty strong signal, right? So if you're for example, VIP, you will know exactly if I will be creating some short positions on the daily time frame.

If I will pull the trigger, you will know about that. Within our trading strategy, it's extremely important to understand that it's not only about when you short and when you long. It's about when you short, how much you short, how much position size you put into your short position, and when you long, how much how much aggressive or defensive you are being on that position.

Because why in casino blackjack and poker are the only two games that you can be long-term profitable at? Well, it's only because in blackjack, if you know how to count the cards, you know when the odds are heavily on your side, and at that time, you need to go aggressive, right?

So when the odds are heavily on your side, you need to go aggressive. Same with poker. You can also calculate the probabilities. When the probabilities are heavily on your side, you need to go aggressive. When they are against you, you need to be defensive.

And exactly as in trading, this is the only way of how you can be long-term profitable, because you need to understand the probabilities and then size based on that, okay? That's the only way how you can be long-term profitable. I'm not talking about month.

I'm not talking about 5 months. I'm not talking about 2 years. I'm talking about consistently being profitable for multiple years, all right? Since 2016. So, ladies and gentlemen, right now, that's all that matters. We need to conclude that five moves that will give me even higher odds that we will start seeing a big, big reversal.

But even right now, we can see already that with the highest probability, we are starting the fourth wave, because the fourth wave, with the highest probability, is going to be the expanded flat, right? The same expanded flat that we have witnessed and actually still witnessing on the weekly frame.

A, B, the B goes above the start of the A wave and then C wave, okay? So, as you can see, the patterns are on like repeating on multiple time frames, right? So, right now, this is the highest probability price action. The next important support zone on the medium time frame is at $72,000, around that level.

Right now, on the 4-hour time frame, we are having we are basically have retested our 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level. We have tested that beautifully, all right? So, yeah, next resistance is at $84,000, but there's much lower probability that we will start pushing towards there than that we will start pushing towards $72,000.

But again, it really depends on your trading tactics. If you feel like this is a clear position right now, clear entry. I would wait for more confirmations to be honest, right? So, but right now just from an analysis perspective, this is not a signal from analysis perspective.

This is not a strategy, right? And the higher odds are that we will start pushing towards $72,000. That's the higher probability. For me, from the daily time frame perspective, you know also that I want to see that really the positioning of retail is getting aggressive, all right?

Because right now retail is, you know, like long positions, right? And there is this that huge imbalance, and we are having kind of positive funding rates, but I want to see I want to see because right now you can see that the open interest is kind of consolidating at our support, yeah?

So, there has been a huge squeeze and huge offloading. That's why off leverage positions. That's why you can see that the open interest went extremely extremely down. It broke below the previous lows made in June, all right? And I want to see the kind of divergence between cumulative volume delta and open interest.

So, I really want to see that the retail for the big short, I mean, yeah? For the big big short that would start pushing the price below the previous low, $58,000. So, for the big big short, I really want to see that we have enough enough power, even more than we have right now, enough liquidity below us to create this beautiful domino effect, all right?

And smoothly keep pushing lower and lower. So, for that immediate trigger, I really want to see that the retail is getting back into the long positions like heavily, like extremely heavily, all right? And that on the cumulative volume delta, I want to see that the spot is actually is absorbing that buying pressure, okay?

And actually distributing heavily their backs. We can already see big distributions happening. That's also why we probably some VIPs we have already distributed the Bitcoin that we have accumulated back at $61,000 because we have seen the whales already dumping heavily, right? So we can see that the smart players already dumping their backs, but I want to see the big divergence, yeah?

As we have seen before the rally started, right? Cumulative volume delta went up, open interest started to go down right here, right? Started to go down. So the cumulative volume delta started to accumulate, right? And that was the trigger for the rally. They have absorbed They have absorbed that offloading of the long positions, right?

Right now I want to see the opposite, yeah? So that's what I'm waiting for as well. That will be another big signal, ladies and gentlemen, for me that we can start pushing heavily the sell button and we are about to start pushing below the below the $58,000.

But all of these are just confirmations. The bias for me is already clear since 2025. Right now we need to create the ending diagonal. So on the weekly time frame I'm bearish. On the daily time frame I've shifted after months from bullish into bearish as well.

I'm bearish on the daily time frame, okay? So based on that I am building my trading tactics and if Parabolic Son of VIP, you know exactly with the traders with the company traders with the Parabolic team what we are doing. So, ladies and gentlemen, on the medium time frame I'm kind of bearish as well, but more confirmations needed.

So with the highest probability right now we are creating that expanded flat. And if we if we start breaking below this moving average trend line and have this kind of break and retest, it will again confirm what we are already seeing on the on the momentum indicators, yeah?

But bearish divergence, ladies and gentlemen, confirmed on multiple momentum indicators. Clearly, you can understand why I am bearish on the 4-hour time frame, as well. So, ladies and gentlemen, but that doesn't mean that we cannot push towards the next resistance, 84,000 there. So, definitely, pay attention to all of the possibilities as a professional traders.

What we care most about risk, right? I would rather miss a trade than risking my and the capital of our clients unnecessarily. So, always trade smart, only focus on the highest probability trade setups, only focus on the trade setups with the highest possible risk reward.

If it doesn't have great risk reward, sometimes it's just better to skip that trade, yeah? If the probability is not like exceptional. So, focus on long-term growth, not trying to get rich quick, because it might happen to you. Because in trading, even a bad process can give you a great outcome.

And that's really the trap that a lot of people get caught in, yeah? So, they they start to win a lot, the overconfidence starts to kick in, they don't understand that they are winning with bad process, and sooner or later, the market will show them.

So, ladies and gentlemen, trade safe, trade with a professional trading strategy, focus on the long-term, and I will see you again on Thursday. Cheers. >> Calm, bros. Clear eyes. Work done. Now, all right. No rush. No dread. Right time for snap. Clean setup.

>> [music] >> Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. >> [music] >> Clean setup. Clean