BlackRock Buys BTC: Simon’s Path to $79,000 and $44,000

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BlackRock is buying Bitcoin again after two weeks [music] of non-stop selling. BlackRock just reaccumulated $250 million worth of Bitcoin [music] in the past 24 hours. Do they believe that Bitcoin can push towards $79,000? Let's analyze the probabilities. >> [music] >> My crypto paradise.

>> Hello ladies and gentlemen of Paradise Club. This is someone from Market Rebellion. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. So yes, the BlackRock is buying. However, I don't think that the power is enough that would absorb the selling pressure that is going on right now.

As you know, for understanding that the macro bottom is going to be in, we want to make sure that we can see that the institutions that have not been able to like basically manage their risk well, they are selling in a loss, right?

Like that every macro bottom since 2011 was created. So we want to see basically that we are going below this magical number zero. As you know, I will be keeping you updated in these videos about it. We are getting close. However, you know that if we want to understand that the macro bottom can be formed, we want to also see that the institutions that are selling in loss, all right, that selling

pressure has been absorbed by the smart money. They've been waiting for exactly this kind of situation and that is why we are also watching together with the net unrealized profit and loss, the trading volume spot versus derivative, right? So what we are interested in is only the spot volume since we are watching the smart money and the smart money is handling a lot of money, billions of dollars.

They don't need leverage. So we can see spot volume what is doing and that's important and that's the only thing that we care about, and we want to see this kind of absorption, right? So, pretty much what we want to see is something similar what happened in the macro bottom formed in 2022.

The selling pressure is being created by the institutions that have not been able to manage their risk well, and the selling pressure is being absorbed by the smart money. So, there is a lot of increasement in spot buying versus the realization of the losses, right?

So, so far, we can see we are having some up upticks during the price action swings to the downside. However, it's nothing significant of what we have been seeing in the previous bottom creations, right? So, we don't have this kind of confluence between the realization of the losses and the absorption of the selling pressure from the spot exchange volume.

So, that's just about the intro. Yes, BlackRock is buying some of the Bitcoins that they have been selling in the past 2 weeks back. However, it's nothing substantial that would make me think, "Oh my god, BlackRock is buying, and that's why the macro bottom needs to be in." So, having said that, let's just very quickly go through the price action that we believe is going to be created since $121,000 when Bitcoin

was at that level. You know that we have been predicting that we are creating a C wave. Very quickly, just to understand the price action of the C wave is basically the final breath of that higher degree corrective motive wave pattern, and it unfolds itself in a five-wave structure, yeah?

So, the market is a breathing organism. So, we have understood there is going to be an inhale, exhale, inhale, exhale, and then final inhale. That might take us towards the zone 55 to 44,000 where the exchange of the hands might be happening because we will be way below the electricity cost of what the Bitcoin mining companies basically spend to mine Bitcoins and it will put a lot of pressure on them same

as it happened back in 2022 and the Bitcoin mining companies that really don't don't have enough reserves and they're not managing their business well, they will need to start selling off their Bitcoins, right? And the period in this kind of I call it exchange of the hand zone because that's the zone where let's call it dumb money is exchanging the Bitcoin with the smart money.

Right? So, the dumb money that have not been able to manage their risk well, they're selling at a loss and the smart money they're absorbing and basically buying from them the Bitcoin. Yeah, so exchange of the hand zone back in 2022, it was around 24 to $16,000.

I do believe that in 2026, 2027 it's going to be something around 55 to $44,000. That's going to be the exchange of the hands zone and I do believe that we are right now unfolding already unfolding already the fifth wave, ladies and gentlemen, that I do believe will take a formation of an ending diagonal.

All right, so let's just quickly go through the go through the price action. The ending diagonal, as you know from our MCP free university, is basically the kind of structure that is happening in the last wave of impulses, right? Which are hard degree inhales and it subdivides itself into five smaller waves and all of them are exhales, all right?

AKA corrective motive waves. So, they can take a pattern of one of these. It's usually a zigzag. All right? And I do believe that with that probably we have created first zigzag already right here, all right? So, that's minus one. In the near future, we should be creating the secondary secondary wave in that ending diagonal that might take us up to $79,000, all right?

So, maybe BlackRock, definitely from technical perspective, it's a high probability right now. BlackRock is having great analyst, right? They're not really traders, but they're a great analysts. So, they're not really timing their buying, etc. to make sure that they're buying like the exact bottom and selling at the exact top, but there might be some some background noise inside of the company that there is a high probability that the Bitcoin is right

now having a local low, and they might be able to sell a little bit at higher prices, right? So, that might be the reason for the last 1 to 2 days of their reaccumulation because we are right now at important support zones, right?

We have been already talking about it. And from the price action development perspective, it's really high probability that we will go towards that $79,000 before we'll start creating the next important wave, the third wave of that ending diagonal, then fourth wave, and then the final fifth wave, right?

For me, this is going to be a great reaccumulation area of the Bitcoin. I've been distributing with Paradise Family VIPs back around $109,000, and then around 121,000. So, this is definitely going to be the time when I plan to start reaccumulating aggressively. Of course, I might say something right now.

It's my plan, but as you know, from a professional trader perspective, it's great to have a plan, but you need to be always in the present moment, right? So, I do want to buy right here if I get enough confirmations and confluences to do so, right?

So, my plan is to start reaccumulating aggressively here, but my plan also is made out of different kind of tactics, right? So, I have my checklist. I will be going through my checklist. Tick, tick, tick. If I get enough ticks in my checklist, I will start reaccumulating heavily in the expectations that Bitcoin is about to have a reversal, right?

And the same way we have been calling the bottom back in 2023, and then we have basically called the finishment of the bull run because we have already created that five waves, that upside right here in 2025, I will be calling the bottom right here, all right, at around $44,000, and my next target will be $169,000, ladies and gentlemen, all right?

So, from here, it would be nice it would be very nice position trading. It would be very nice position because it could make us around 300% in average, right? So, that would be a nice nice movement. And given that in the past few years we had a bad economical situation, global economical situation in general, it would basically nicely confluence with the market having enough money to spend, right?

And that would basically increase the probabilities that some of the money will be flowing into crypto, right? So, the confluence is there from from this kind of perspective as well, right? Right now, most of the people are risk off, right? They don't want to do some risky investments because they're scared.

There is a lot a lot of uncertainty in the market, right? We have the tariffs, we have the war, right? So, there is a lot of stuff going on. So, in the in the times of uncertainty, people are basically much happier having a lot of reserves, right?

Because you don't know what's going to happen. You don't know what's going to happen. It's like when we had COVID, right? You don't know what's going to happen. So, it's much better for you to buy the toilet paper, right? Because you don't know.

You don't know what's going to happen. So, you are stacking up reserves, right? So, in times of uncertainty, you are not really willing to risk a lot of money, right? And trading, people understand that it's risky. So, they are not willing to risk if they don't know what's going to happen tomorrow.

But then, when the times going to get stable again, and they have not been stable for the past few years, when the time starts to get stable again, the people will start to have more certainty, right? Again. They will have more this kind of confidence of what's going to happen in the future.

So, they will be able they will be more in peace, relaxed, and they will start to basically flowing their money. They will start putting their money into some risky investments, and some of the risky investments might be also crypto, right? So, from this kind of perspective, fundamental perspective, it could nicely confluence with also, like time-wise, bottom being around this zone right here, and it really seems like we are in the final

cycle of the crypto bear market. Ladies and gentlemen, having said that, let's right now move and let's try to understand the potential move towards the $79,000. And when I say potential, you know, that we have been going through this for some time already, right?

So, you know that we actually believe that this corrective motive wave of that ending diagonal, it will unfold itself as a flat pattern, expanded flat pattern, right? And there is a high probability that we might be right now already creating the C wave, which is a motive wave structure.

That means it subdivides itself into five smaller breaths, aka five smaller waves. So, we have been going through it, right? And there are positive signs on the daily time frame why still to be bullish. So, we have the bullish divergence, right? So, the price action been creating lower low, but the MACD histogram higher low, right?

So, we have been going through this. The next low on the price action, we have been taking a look at the momentum. This is the power of the bears, sure, right? So, the bears got wrecked and the bulls start taking over. We have got the bullish cross as well already right here, right?

The bearish volume was declining. This was the volume on the previous low. This was the volume on the lower low. So, there was a lot of confluences of basically us understanding, you and me, that this is probably not going to continue lower, right?

And we will start having some kind of reversal. So, we did. And right now, if we take a look on the RSI indicator, we can also see that right here, once we started to start picking up on the bullish volume, we have went above the moving average volume volume trend line right here.

We've started to cross also bullishly the RSI trend line. And we do have bullish divergences here as well. And this is another great confirmation for us. And we've been understanding, with the highest probability, this is going to predict what's going to happen on the price action.

If we are crossing the moving average right here, probably we're going to cross it right here on the price action, which we have done, right? However, we have not been able to sustain properly a support there just yet, okay? So, in my opinion, in my opinion, I would like to like the daily time frame still doesn't have enough power to defend this moving average trend line, which is sitting at $62,000, all

right? So, we might get a little bit lower. And does it actually somehow nicely go into the price action that we are expecting to be unfolding from lower time frame. And actually it does, right? So, as we know, this C wave needs to have the five wave structure, right?

With the highest probability, we have already created the first wave, this one, and right now we are creating the secondary wave, right? So, we have been going through it in in previous videos as well. So, the price action should look something like this.

The first wave, as we have already understood in the previous video, was already finished. We have got that five wave sub waves, right? And then we have been calling that the secondary wave will probably finish. There was a lot of confluences at around 60 to 59,000 dollars, right?

So, it's this nice Fibonacci retracement level zone made out of the important 618 and 786 Fibonacci retracement level. We can see a huge VPVR volume also at around 60,000 dollars. So, really 60,000 dollars is going to be well defended, all right? So, there's a lot of confluences also from the previous price action.

You can see it was working as a resistance. Now it will be working as a support. It was then back in also early June been working as a support. So, you can see historic price action is supporting this level. VPVR is supporting this level.

There is from multi time frame perspective a lot of confluences from a Fibonacci retracement levels, all right? So, 60,000 dollars is going to be pretty strong, pretty strong support, right? And we do have a zone, we do have a zone, so there is a high probability that we might wick below it, right?

But going below 59,000 dollars, you already know is going to be pretty hard for the bears, right? So, that is why if you get enough confirmations of the completion of the bearish structure of the secondary wave and you know, the secondary wave will take a form of one of these corrective motive patterns, right?

So, you can watch for that as well. That will give you again more confidence, aka more probability that we are finishing the secondary wave. If you get enough confluences right here, this might be a very great buying opportunity. It might be a great opportunity to create a long position from not only probability perspective, but also risk reward as we have been talking about in the previous video already, right?

So, right now what we can see what we what we can see, let's basically take a look what we have been discussing in the previous video. Yeah, so the bearish divergence which is which is been playing out the bearish cross, right? So, we have got a bearish cross already here, then retest retest and right now we are opening the legs and another retest around that 0.

is right now going to happen. And what we can see is that a lot of people might be saying, "But Simon, right now we are creating bullish divergence, no?" Well, we are creating higher low, but lower low on the MACD histogram. A lot of people would call this a bullish divergence, not me because this is a just a huge wick, all right?

Which been created mostly with futures, right? And henceforth we also understand that this was on Monday. It was after Sunday and all of these things just giving us this kind of perspective not to put too much attention on this week. So, I actually take it as lower low as well, all right?

So, lower low lower low, for me there is no bullish divergence. If you take a look on on the momentum, so let's confluence it with the price action. So, with the highest probability the secondary waves are zigzags, right? Sometimes double zigzags. It might be the case, but what we know about zigzag it sub itself into A B C, right?

And the A wave is a motive wave structure, B is a corrective motive wave structure, and the C wave again motive wave, yeah? So, it's inhale exhale inhale. So, what can we see right now at least from the medium time frame perspective is that we have not yet finished the the A wave, right?

So, I do see one, two, three. Right now, we might be creating the fourth wave. If we go in the price territory of the first and secondary wave, this might be a flat pattern, but unless we will flip back this resistance into support, we are going to be doing the final fifth wave.

Then there might be some bigger consolidation and then final move towards this zone, and then we might start seeing the hard degree third wave. Obviously, this is just this kind of price action perspective. At this moment, it might look different. It's just probabilities, ladies and gentlemen, but from the probability perspective, also what we are right now doing, this was previously acting as a as a support for a bit, right?

A lot of people thought that this is right now support as well, as we have been pushing here. You know that we have been understanding that there is like a lot of bearish confluences, the shooting star, bearish engulfing, and we have not actually flipped it into a support.

So, for me, this was for a bit like a neutral area, but given that right now we have broken below it with a rising volume, and right now we are retesting it with much lower volume, with declining volume, we are reclaiming this level into a resistance, in my opinion, and we might see a continuation to the downside, ladies and gentlemen, all right?

So, it's possible that we might see a wick towards this zone, the price territory of the first secondary wave. That's some like medium probability, very low probability that we will start reclaiming the $64,000 back into support and continue to go higher. That's for me the lowest probability.

The highest probability, the price action will look something like this, okay? And we will we will hold this resistance and continue to go towards 61 and 60,000 dollars. Obviously, this is just from what we are seeing at this moment. The market can change anytime.

If you are in Paradise on the VIP, you know exactly what me and the whole Paradise team, what we are doing in the in the in the market. You know that we are sharing with you our personal trade setups with clear entry and exit targets.

So, ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated again on Saturday, back on Saturday. We will take a look at the price section of Bitcoin. Until then, take care, trade safe, and I will see you next time. Cheers. >> Calm, bro. Clear eyes, >> [music] >> work done.

Now I ride, no rush, no dread. >> [music] >> Right time for snap, clean setup, clean click. >> [music] >> Execute like a pro, that's it. Clean setup.