In short: The ParadiseTeam stays bearish. Simon says Bitcoin is pushing into resistance while retail interest sits at multi-year lows, and the fifth wave down is not finished. He targets a final low near $81,000, warns a drop toward $66,000 could liquidate over $15 billion in longs, then a path back toward $169,000.
Is Bitcoin heading to $66,000 next?
Track it live: our live crypto funding rates updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
Not confirmed, but the risk leans down. Simon flags a large imbalance on the liquidation map: a drop toward $66,000 could wipe over $15 billion in long positions. He calls the path of least resistance lower, since one liquidation can trigger the next in a domino effect.
On the daily chart, Simon notes longs are still crowded. He points to the Bitcoin liquidation map as his main evidence. The imbalance favours the downside, so he treats long trades with caution here.
Why is retail interest a problem right now?
Simon says retail interest sits at multi-year lows. Google Trends searches for Bitcoin are near all-time lows, and he calls this the worst year for trading activity in over five years. He compares it to playing poker against only professionals, with no tourists to trade against.
Simon notes interest spikes when Bitcoin falls, not when it rises. In February, a crash near 36% brought a demand spike. June’s smaller drop near 30% brought a smaller one. He argues prices may need to fall further to pull retail back.
What do the whales and funding rates show?
A divergence, Simon says. Whales have been selling for three days straight while the crowd keeps buying. Funding rates are cooling and longs are less crowded, leaving only a 4% squeeze probability on Bitcoin. The fear and greed index recently hit 80, which is extreme greed.
The whales control most of the money, Simon says. Yet they make up only a small share of participants. He watches this divergence alongside the funding and positioning board. When smart money sells into a buying crowd, he treats it as a bearish signal.
Where does Simon see Bitcoin bottoming and topping?
Simon expects lower prices first. He targets a final fifth-wave low near $81,000 and a weekly lower low below the prior $58,000 low. Longer term, he still believes in a new all-time high near $169,000, but only after a capitulation phase clears the market.
Since 2011, Simon says every bull continuation needed an exchange of hands zone. In 2022, that zone sat between $24,000 and $16,000. This cycle he maps it at $55,000 down to $44,000. He notes price touched near it but did not stay long enough to capitulate.
Simon shares this read publicly in the ParadiseTeam Bitcoin analysis videos. He argues a bull market rarely resumes without this phase.
What is Simon’s trade plan from here?
He is trading with bearish tactics into the rally. On the weekly, Simon is bearish; on the daily, neutral until price reclaims the $82,000 to $84,000 zone as support. He wants the fifth wave to complete near $81,000 before planning a short.
Simon wants a corrective move up toward $85,000 on falling volume first. Only then would he plan a short toward the $75,000 support. He keeps the focus on risk management and protecting capital in thin markets. He notes the setup only works if resistance near $88,000 holds.
Frequently asked questions
Is Bitcoin going to crash to $66,000?
Simon does not promise a crash. He shows that a drop toward $66,000 could liquidate over $15 billion in long positions, and he sees the path of least resistance pointing lower. He stays bearish on the weekly time frame and expects one more lower low first.
What is Simon’s Bitcoin price target?
Simon targets a final fifth-wave low near $81,000 on the medium time frame. He also expects a weekly lower low below the prior $58,000 low. Longer term, he still believes Bitcoin can reach a new all-time high near $169,000 once the market completes its capitulation phase.
Why is Simon bearish right now?
Simon cites several signals. Retail interest sits at multi-year lows, whales have been selling while the crowd buys. And the fear and greed index recently hit extreme greed at 80. The liquidation map also shows far more long exposure below than short exposure above.
What is the squeeze probability on Bitcoin?
Simon says the squeeze probability on Bitcoin is only 4% right now. Funding rates are cooling and long positions are becoming less crowded. He notes the probability is higher on Ethereum, but these videos focus only on Bitcoin. He watches funding and open interest for confirmation.
When would Simon short Bitcoin?
Simon would short only after clear confirmations. He wants the fifth wave to complete near $81,000, then a corrective move up toward $85,000 on falling volume. If that plays out, he would target the $75,000 support with a defined stop and strong risk reward.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Bitcoin is pushing into resistance but at the same time retail interest in Bitcoin is declining. If Bitcoin drops towards $66,000, we will liquidate over 15 billion dollars off of long positions currently in the market. So does that mean Bitcoin is about to crash or can we continue pushing towards the next major resistance?
Let's analyze the probabilities. Yo ladies and gentlemen, this is Simon from MyCryptoParadise. welcome back to a great video today is Thursday and that means that you are watching another second video of this week. Previously we have stated that Bitcoin on the 4 timeframe is bearish and that we will push down.
So as you can see we are creating that 5 wave structure. The 5th wave is not yet finished, I am still bearish on the medium timeframe and I do believe that with the highest probability the final 5th wave will finish at around $81,000.
So at this moment we are completing the 5 wave structure. it's not yet finished, in my opinion right now we are creating the 4th wave which is a slow down before the final push to the downside. So on the medium time frame I'm still bearish but am I also bearish on the macro time frame perspective?
Well, let's talk about it. First of all we need to understand what the retail is doing, okay? So from the Google Trends we can see that we are at all time lows. So this basically tell us that the retail interest, The interest of majority of people on the internet and globally right now is at all time low, nobody is interested in Bitcoin.
When the interest goes up is not when Bitcoin pushes up, and this is important, but when Bitcoin pushes down. So take a look at this for example, during June when we pushed down 30%, the retail interest on Google, we can see that the Google Trends searches for Bitcoin had a spike, right?
Spike, spike to the upside. When we go up, when Bitcoin is pushing up also around 30%, what is the interest going around retail? Going down, going lower, nobody is interested in Bitcoin, it's going up. And this not only creating a hard trading environment, because right now we are trading is like playing poker against just professional poker players, alright?
So imagine that you are sitting around table where the poker is being played and you are just playing against high professional poker player. It's not that easy to get their tokens, right? But imagine the good markets that we are getting during some bearish trends or when we have the retail back, right so the market can be moving up the market can be moving down doesn't matter right what matters is if around
the table are some tourists right so if you have tourists around the table where you are playing the poker you can get their chips right much easier because those tourists doesn't know the game properly all right they're there just having fun they're not that protective of their tokens.
So it's much easier for us as professional traders to get their tokens with our trading tactics and with our trading strategies by keeping edge on our side with every trade we take. But when we are playing poker only against other professional poker players, institutional players, big whales and then very smart traders that are having their own trading strategies and trading in tactics.
Well, we can take some of their tokens, right? But it's much harder because they know how to play the game and they are being very protective of their tokens. And the same as we, they are also playing only the highest probability hands and they are not bluffing that often, right?
So they're much harder to read, right? Tourists, you cannot read their emotions much easier. So you know when to go aggressive, you know when to go defensive, you know how to to basically play them out. But when we have lack of these tourists around the table, it really doesn't matter if the tourists are around when the market is going up or down.
What matters is if the tourists are there. And right now we can see we are at 5 years low. People simply are not trading. So it's much harder for us as professional traders to basically create trade some great trading opportunities, it's not impossible, we are still playing, we are still monitoring the market 24-7 and doing our best to protect our capital and to make as much money as we can at this
market cycle, right? You always should be doing the best you can, whatever you do in life, right? Always, every single time, do the best you can, don't blame the government, don't blame other people, just focus on yourself, focus on your game. so that's what we are doing, right?
But still we need to understand that the traders, they need to get back to the market so we have again the fun trading environment and right now what's important to understand that people are not interested in going back to the markets when Bitcoin is pushing up but they are much more interested in going into the markets when Bitcoin is going down.
So we have this very logical thing happening in the market. Sometimes people are going back to the markets in a fear of missing out. But sometimes the demand is increasing when actually things are becoming cheaper. So when things are becoming cheaper, people see it as an opportunity and they buy.
It's not always like this. It's not always like this. The same way It's not always like this in the supermarket. When they lower the prices, they sell more. Sometimes the high premium products sell more simply because of fear of missing out that like people feel like there's not going to be enough of those products in the supermarket, right?
So the same way we have these kind of mechanics in the crypto market as well. And we need to understand the trends, all right? So trend is your friend until he studs you in the back, right? but until he stops you in the break, it's your friend and you shouldn't be following what the trends are doing, okay?
So we can see, all right, the trend is, and it started right here in February, when we crashed, all right, as you can see right here in February, we have crashed by around 36%, ladies and gentlemen, all right, so in February we have crashed and the demand had a spike, all right so February big crash spike in demand all right then pump nothing all right no new demand Bitcoin crashed again in
June and as you can see another spike but much lower than this one because this was lower crash all right so we need to understand that right now if we want to have again a great market environment with a lot of trading opportunities where we can make money much more easier, alright, again as in the previous years, right, we need to get the retail back.
How are we gonna do it? Obviously the global economy needs to improve as well, right, so when the global economy is gonna improve people will have more money to spend and more money to risk basically and definitely they will put it again in the crypto markets, right, so global Global economy needs to improve so people can spend their money and spend their money in trade-in as well.
So global economy needs to improve, but also the price of Bitcoin and crypto in general needs to get attractive enough for those people to get back into the markets, alright? So global economy needs to improve, that's one thing, but it's gonna put inflow of some people.
But some people, even though if the economy is gonna improve, right, but they don't see the value in the Bitcoin right now we can see the trend is the way that like it's not getting them back when the Bitcoin is pushing up and crypto is pushing up but it's getting them back when they see cheaper prices okay so right now the trend is like this so we need to get the prices
lower and market makers know it if we want to have again healthy markets great trading environment if we we want the tourists get back around our table and play with us, we want the tourists play with us, right, come here tourists, play with us, so we can play you, right, we need to put the market lower, market makers know it, alright, we need to make the prices more attractive, which is increasing
the probability right now, that we need to see lower prices first, before we can start pushing towards the new all-time high that I believe will be at $169,000. And as you know, another thing that we are watching that still makes us believe that Bitcoin needs to go lower is the net-analyzed profit and loss, one of many things that we are watching.
But this is very important and most interesting, that is why I'm showing it here in those videos with you, all right, publicly. So take a look at this. You already know about it. If you're subscribed in this channel, you're watching these videos, you know that since 2011, right, every time when we could have continuation of the bull market, all right, we needed to create the macro bottom.
But how? By making bad risk managers, aka institutions and individuals that have not been able to manage their risk well, right? And they have been buying Bitcoin at wrong prices to copy too late. But the way that we are forced them to copy too late, all right?
AKA we force them to realize their losses. And on the other side, somebody absorbs that selling pressure, AKA the smart money, right? The good risk managers, the ones that focus on the long term, not on the short term, right? And they understand the market cycles, that's the smart money.
So the smart money absorbs that selling pressure, the price action slows down, even there's a lot of realization of the losses of the people on the other side, right? And that's how the exchange of the hands zone happens. And in 2022, the exchange of the hands zone was at $24,000 to $16,000, it was this zone right here right and then we can start a new bull market and we can resume the
previous bull market all right from the macro perspective as you can see every single time since 2011 every single bear market happened by creating the exchange of the hands phase all right so in 2022 it was like right here but in 2026 all right this is not only the worst year from trading activity all right in the last five years even more but also we have not yet gone through the capitulation
because right now most of the people already sold all right the retail the people the mass is already sold but the institutions the bad risk managers that are right now made out of like much few individuals than in the previous years as you can see they have not capitulated yet but the the market makers understood, alright, the market makers understand that we need to go through this capitulation phase so then we
can resume the rally because the capitulation is so important so then once the global economy improves, alright, these institutions can help us to push the prices higher because they will need to buy higher at higher prices, right? So right now they need to capitulate, they need to create the exchange of the hand zone by capitulating and realising the losses in order for us to resume the bull trend and create a new
macro bull market. As you can see, every single time the capitulation phase happened, right now we went close to it but there wasn't enough realisation of the losses. So you can probably agree with me that the probability is very low that we can resume a bull market without going through the exchange of the hand zone since every single time since 2011 we went through it.
So that is also why the probability that we will go lower before hitting the new all-time high $169,000 is right now higher. What we can see right now from the price action development perspective is that, you remember, if you are around for a long time with me right here, you know that we are predicting a bear market since Bitcoin hit that 121,000 dollars.
We are predicting a five-way study downside towards the presumed exchange of the hand zone, the one in this bear market that will happen at 55 and lower boundary 44,000 dollars. As you can see, we have touched it almost, right? But we have not spent enough time in there, in this zone, for the exchange of the hands phase to be able to happen, alright?
And also, from the price action development perspective, we can see that we have not yet concluded that five waves that are very important for the sea wave structure that we are in right now. So we have created one, two, three, which is with the house probability and extended one.
Right now we are concluding the 4th wave that is subdividing itself into 3 smaller waves, it's a corrective wave structure and with the highest probabilities an expanded flat, alright, where the sea wave might take us up to $99,000, alright, but it's also, there is also a possibility that if we will not be able to reclaim this resistance at $88,000, we have already finished the 4th wave right here.
that is why, given that the edge right now and the trend and everything is just on the bearish side, I'm not playing with bullish trading tactics, alright? So if you are in ParadiseFamilyVIP, you know, for example, that we have been re-accumulating some Bitcoin at $61,000, then at $71,000 as well, around that level, and basically at lower prices we have been re-accumulating some of our Bitcoin that we were previously distributing at $109,000
and around $121,000 and you know that we have been taking profits already on it, alright? So, I can tell you this, I can tell you this because it's in our hard wallet rotation trading tactic that we are doing inside of the original ParadiseFamilyVIP membership, I can tell you this because like a lot of people will be probably angry at me that I'm like sharing this kind of information with you but I
think it's helpful so I'm gonna share it with you. So basically we have already distributed some of our Bitcoin at $79,000 and yesterday we have distributed even more, okay, I can tell you that. So we are selling, I'm playing with Barish trading tactics, ladies and gentlemen, into this rally because I do believe that there is much higher probability that we will create one more low-over-low at least, all right, below the previous
low of $58,000 on the weekly time frame. sold, let me show you. I'm bearish on the weaker time frame. Okay. And another important stuff. Let's right now understand the final sea wave right here. That is an impulse, right? That means it's out of itself into five small waves.
It can, let me show you. Finish already right here at that $88,000 given that this resistance will hold. However, the fifth wave can be also an extended one, alright? From the daily timeframe perspective, I'm not bullish right now as well, I'm not bullish, I'm kinda neutral on the daily timeframe at this moment until we can reclaim this previous resistance, as you can see it was working as a resistance and resistance right
here, into a support. So right now, this resistance zone on the on the delay timeframe, previous resistance zone, I mean, that was at 82,000 to 84,000, it's not right anymore, it's white, because I'm right now waiting, if the price action can reclaim it and turn it into a support, okay?
So what we can see right now, it's happening, and if it's going to be turned into a support, it will show us that the bulls are strong, alright, on the lower timeframe, on the delay in the early time frame, in defending some important levels, and it will increase the probability that we will break above that $88,000 and increase higher towards that $99,000, okay?
So that is why multi-time frame analysis from professional trading perspective is very, very important, right? Because it can give you an early signs that on single time frame you would not be able to see. So at this moment, what we can see from the volume perspective, the volume was with the price action rise in, as we were breaking above previous resistance zone on the delay timeframe, which is bullish, it was above
the moving average volume trend line, so nice move, alright. But right now, the bears would need to show a stronger participation in order to break this zone back. At this moment we can see that the price action is declining, it's going down, it's reversing from the previous bull trend, right, lower time frame bull trend and the volume is actually declining as well, which is suggesting that bulls will be able to hold
this if no new bearish pressure will step in, okay? So I cannot confirm that with extreme probability right now, but this is already an early sign that probably this will be defended, okay, on the daily time frame. I need to have confirmations how the daily candle is gonna close, I want to see some bullish trading confirmations from the lower time frames as well, but at this moment no throw on the daily
time frame until I see a clear bullish reclaim, okay, and that will make me to turn on this zone into a support or that the bears are stepping in and they are able to break below this moving average trend line and below this zone with increasing volume.
Still it can happen, however, right now the bulls are actually showing strength, okay? The bulls are showing strength. So on the daily timeframe I'm kinda neutral until the things that I've just talked about. Let's take a look, however, on the lower time frame.
Am I more bullish or bearish on the four time frame? So, on the medium time frame, in the beginning of this video, I've already told you that I'm actually more bearish, right? Because I actually see that we are right now in a possible first impulse wave.
However, am I betting on it? Well, from the macro perspective, I am. That is why with Paradiser, we have been distributing some of our Bitcoin, alright? But from our perspective, like from a swing trading perspective, where I would need to create some swing trading position with clean stop loss and exit targets and some clean enterprise waiting for bearish confirmations.
Why I have been bearish in the previous video? You know exactly well, right? Multiple reasons why. The sentiment was extremely bullish around the people that are right now in the market and you need to understand like we are at all time low of trading participation but there is some kind of circle of people that are still trading, okay?
So this circle of people was extremely bullish, alright, in the previous days. So we were hitting on our free and greed index, the number 80, alright, which is extreme extreme greed, okay? Which is extreme greed. Together with that there was this kind of divergence between the crypto whales, alright, that are actually controlling 80% of the money circulating in the market, alright?
But they are only made out of 20% of the market participants, alright? So minority of people controlling majority of the money in the market were on the opposite liquid side, selling, right? We have seen it selling. And by the way, we're on this crypto whale alert and tracker that you can visit and check on our website MyCryptoParadise.com inside of Insights.
We are having it internally with the ParadiseTeam, but on this page that we are sharing like public land also with our PRO Paradisers that are having more insights into everything. A few hours ago, to be honest, when I was watching what was going on in in the market.
I have actually understood that we are only tracking what happened in the past 24 hours, but if you are not writing it down, you don't know what happened like three days ago, seven days ago, one month ago. So we will today or tomorrow, we are right now in the building process of it.
You will also see like not only what is happening live, right? There is this kind of tape, what's happening live, and also in the past 24 hours, but also what happened 3 days ago, 4 days ago, because for the past 3 days, if you have been writing it down, you know that whales are consistently, alright, exceeding in selling, alright, so there is more selling from whales than buying, together with that, continuously,
there was more buying from the majority of people that are controlling, minority of the money, there more buying from them, okay? And we have seen it also and the confirmation of it is on the funding rates and open interest. But that was the trend, right?
And you know, this kind of divergence between what the crowd is doing versus what the whales are doing is extremely important. And it was one of the reasons why we were bearish in the previous video, okay? Because of this divergence, we are also tracking and individual wallets, all right, that you can actually see if you're a PRO Paradiser.
And you have a great understanding which whales are really good traders, like directional traders, which whales are good in mean reversion trading, and then you can also track them. So you see, all right, this whale is actually doing right now this, and that can really help you to determine which whale is actually the smart money whale or which whale is just this kind of I've got a lot of money from my
parents whale, right? So, however, as a whole, we can see, like when we take a look at the whales as one bubble, there are majority of them they are selling. So it's also good not only watch only the whales that you know that are good because of their past performance, right?
Two years, three years, that's important. One month, three months, one year, you can be lucky. So don't watch this kind of whales. we have for that this leaderboard, maybe it's actually for proper erasers, yeah that's only for proper erasers only, but you can see some of it, alright, so that's why we have this kind of leaderboard, so you can kinda ignore what the dump whales doing and focus on what the smart
whales are doing, so that's one thing of how to watch the whales, another one, take them as one bubble and watch what majority of them are doing, and we can see for the the past three days the majority of the whales have been continuously selling while the majority of people, the crowds, were buying.
So there's this kind of divergence worth seeing, worth watching and it's also what resulted in this medium time frame crash. On the funding rates it's getting better, the longs are being less crowded, that is why there is only 4% squeeze probability on Bitcoin at this moment.
It's much higher on Ethereum, but in these videos we are focusing only on Bitcoin, so we can see that the funding rates are actually cooling down. Which might be a good thing if you are on the other side, but from the price section perspective, price section development perspective and from the macro time frame perspective, from on the hard degree perspective, we can see, first of all, on the daily time frame, you
can see there is still much more long exposure, alright, the longs are being crowded and we can also see on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, as you have seen in the intro, right, there is a huge imbalance between the short liquidations, if we push to the upside, versus the long liquidation, if we will push to the downside, huge imbalance and given that we We are provisional traders, we are focusing on the
path of least resistance, right? And because we understand the domino effect, the path of least resistance is on the downside. It's much more easier for the market makers to push one liquidation level on the opposite side that will trigger another liquidation level, right?
Because when you are in a long position, you get liquidated, you need to sell the contracts that pushes the price lower, and you can create this kind of domino effect. So I would be careful with long positions and from a price action perspective, development.
First of all, I want to see a clear construction of this impulse, alright, which right now is having like some kind of a volume, but I want that to exceed the previous bullish volume, alright, so maybe on the 5th wave, let's see. So I want to see completion of the 5th wave, alright, that might finish at that 1.69 Fibonacci replacement level at around $81,000, and then for me to position myself, alright,
and if I will position myself, you will know about it in ParadiseFamilyVIP, into a short position, I want to see a corrective mode wave to the upside and with decreasement of volume, alright, so on this push to the downside, high volume, on the corrective wave structure, I want to see it to be the corrective mode wave structure, and as you know from our MCP3 university, If I'm gonna find it, no, probably
not in this video, but you know that we have nine of these corrective wave structure patterns, right? And I'm not gonna find it in this video, but I promise you I will prepare it for the next video. I thought I have had it here, but anyway, if you are watching these videos, you know that LEO 12 table very well, right?
So you know that we have nine corrective wave patterns, right? Which usually are the three wave structures or variations of thereof, for the secondary waves it's usual is zigzag, which subdivides itself into A, B, C, where the A wave and C wave are motive wave structures, B wave is a corrective wave structure, if we will be able to recognize this corrective mode wave structure, and we will stop it at the previous
stop of the first wave, which is we will go with this corrective wave structure maximum towards 85,000 dollars, on decline in volume, I will position myself into a short position, high probability short position, with great risk reward aka I will lose much less money if I'm wrong than what I will win if I'm right.
I will position myself into the short position in expectation that the bears are strong enough to take over the trend and start pushing lower to the next support zone that we have at $75,000. and then it will produce into the daily timeframe, I will start to turn in bearish on the daily timeframe and it will confirm the bearish bias we have right now on the weekly timeframe, okay?
So, ladies and gentlemen, trade safe, trade with a provisional trading strategy, because if you don't have a strategy then your strategy is to fail and focus on your system, don't focus on what other people are telling you, just focus on yourself, on your system, on your process.
Focus on your process. We cannot win every time and we are focusing mostly on risk management and protecting our capital right now, especially because of the trading situation where the trading activity from the retail is extremely low. Before 2016, we have been, me personally, I've been humbled by the market very much.
Since then, since 2016, I'm all about focusing on process and focus in on my risk management. So focus on your risk management. I know what I'm saying because of the experience and focus on your risk management and focus on the process and make sure that your process has an edge and just follow it over and over again.
You will not win every trade but once you start hitting your winning streak and if your trading strategy is good you will win much more money during the winning streak than what you will lose during the losing streak and this is called a long-term profitable trading strategy, all right, and that's what trading is all about.
Not about excitement but about building your trade-in as you build a business, not trading like you would be in Las Vegas in a casino. All right, ladies and gentlemen, so I hope this helps and I will see you again in the next one on Saturday.
Cheers!
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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