In short: The ParadiseTeam stays bearish. Simon says Bitcoin is pushing into resistance while retail interest sits at multi-year lows, and the fifth wave down is not finished. He targets a final low near $81,000, warns a drop toward $66,000 could liquidate over $15 billion in longs, then a path back toward $169,000.
Is Bitcoin heading to $66,000 next?
Track it live: our live crypto funding rates updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
Not confirmed, but the risk leans down. Simon flags a large imbalance on the liquidation map: a drop toward $66,000 could wipe over $15 billion in long positions. He calls the path of least resistance lower, since one liquidation can trigger the next in a domino effect.
On the daily chart, Simon notes longs are still crowded. He points to the Bitcoin liquidation map as his main evidence. The imbalance favours the downside, so he treats long trades with caution here.
Why is retail interest a problem right now?
Simon says retail interest sits at multi-year lows. Google Trends searches for Bitcoin are near all-time lows, and he calls this the worst year for trading activity in over five years. He compares it to playing poker against only professionals, with no tourists to trade against.
Simon notes interest spikes when Bitcoin falls, not when it rises. In February, a crash near 36% brought a demand spike. June’s smaller drop near 30% brought a smaller one. He argues prices may need to fall further to pull retail back.
What do the whales and funding rates show?
A divergence, Simon says. Whales have been selling for three days straight while the crowd keeps buying. Funding rates are cooling and longs are less crowded, leaving only a 4% squeeze probability on Bitcoin. The fear and greed index recently hit 80, which is extreme greed.
The whales control most of the money, Simon says. Yet they make up only a small share of participants. He watches this divergence alongside the funding and positioning board. When smart money sells into a buying crowd, he treats it as a bearish signal.
Where does Simon see Bitcoin bottoming and topping?
Simon expects lower prices first. He targets a final fifth-wave low near $81,000 and a weekly lower low below the prior $58,000 low. Longer term, he still believes in a new all-time high near $169,000, but only after a capitulation phase clears the market.
Since 2011, Simon says every bull continuation needed an exchange of hands zone. In 2022, that zone sat between $24,000 and $16,000. This cycle he maps it at $55,000 down to $44,000. He notes price touched near it but did not stay long enough to capitulate.
Simon shares this read publicly in the ParadiseTeam Bitcoin analysis videos. He argues a bull market rarely resumes without this phase.
What is Simon’s trade plan from here?
He is trading with bearish tactics into the rally. On the weekly, Simon is bearish; on the daily, neutral until price reclaims the $82,000 to $84,000 zone as support. He wants the fifth wave to complete near $81,000 before planning a short.
Simon wants a corrective move up toward $85,000 on falling volume first. Only then would he plan a short toward the $75,000 support. He keeps the focus on risk management and protecting capital in thin markets. He notes the setup only works if resistance near $88,000 holds.
Frequently asked questions
Is Bitcoin going to crash to $66,000?
Simon does not promise a crash. He shows that a drop toward $66,000 could liquidate over $15 billion in long positions, and he sees the path of least resistance pointing lower. He stays bearish on the weekly time frame and expects one more lower low first.
What is Simon’s Bitcoin price target?
Simon targets a final fifth-wave low near $81,000 on the medium time frame. He also expects a weekly lower low below the prior $58,000 low. Longer term, he still believes Bitcoin can reach a new all-time high near $169,000 once the market completes its capitulation phase.
Why is Simon bearish right now?
Simon cites several signals. Retail interest sits at multi-year lows, whales have been selling while the crowd buys. And the fear and greed index recently hit extreme greed at 80. The liquidation map also shows far more long exposure below than short exposure above.
What is the squeeze probability on Bitcoin?
Simon says the squeeze probability on Bitcoin is only 4% right now. Funding rates are cooling and long positions are becoming less crowded. He notes the probability is higher on Ethereum, but these videos focus only on Bitcoin. He watches funding and open interest for confirmation.
When would Simon short Bitcoin?
Simon would short only after clear confirmations. He wants the fifth wave to complete near $81,000, then a corrective move up toward $85,000 on falling volume. If that plays out, he would target the $75,000 support with a defined stop and strong risk reward.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Bitcoin is pushing into resistance, [music] but at the same time, retail interest in Bitcoin is declining. If Bitcoin [music] drops towards $66,000, we will equate over $15 billion worth of for long positions currently in the market. [music] So, does that mean Bitcoin is about to crash or can we continue pushing towards the next major resistance?
[music] Let's analyze the probabilities. [music] Hello ladies and gentle cup. This is Smon from my crypto paradise. Welcome back to today's Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. Previously we have stated that Bitcoin on the four time frame is bearish and that we will push down.
So as you can see we are creating that fivewave structure. The fifth wave is not yet finished. I'm still bearish on the medium time frame and I do believe that with the highest probability the final fifth wave will finish at around $81,000. So at this moment we are completing the fivewave structure.
It's not yet finished in my opinion. Right now we are creating the fourth wave which is a slowdown before the final push to the downside. So on the medium time frame I'm still bearish but am I also bearish on the macro time frame perspective.
Well let's talk about it. First of all we need to understand what the retail is doing. Okay. So from the Google trends we can see that we are at all-time lows. So this basically tell us that the retail interest the interest of majority of people all right on the internet and globally right now is at all-time low nobody is interested in bitcoin when the interest goes up is not when bitcoin pushes
up and this is important okay but when bitcoin pushes down so take a look at this for example during June all right when we pushed down 30% the retail interest on Google we can see that the Google trends searches for Bitcoin had a spike right spike spike to the upside when we go up when Bitcoin is pushing up also around 30% what is the interest going around retail going down going lower
nobody is interested in Bitcoin and it's going up and this not only creating hard trading environment because right now we are trading is like playing poker against just professional poker players. All right. So imagine that you are sitting around table where the poker is being played and you are just playing against high professional poker player.
It's not that easy to get their tokens, right? But imagine the good markets that we are getting during some bearish trends or when we have the retail back, right? So the market can be moving up, the market can be moving down, doesn't matter, right?
What matters is if around the table are some tourists, right? So if you have tourists around the table where you are playing the poker, you can get their chips, right? Much easier because those tourists those tourists doesn't know the game properly. All right?
They're there just having fun. They are not that protective of their tokens, right? So it's much easier for us as professional traders to get their tokens with our trading tactics and with our trading strategies by keeping edge on our side with every trade we take.
Right? But when we are playing poker only against other professional poker players, institutional players, big whales and then very smart traders that are having their own trading strategies and trading tactics. Well, we can take some of their tokens, right? But it's much harder because they know how to play the game and they are being very protective of their tokens.
And the same as we, they are also playing only the highest probability hands and they are not bluffing that often, right? So they are much harder to read, right? Tourists, you can read their emotions much easier. So you know when to go aggressive, you know when to go defensive, you know how to basically play them out, right?
But when we have lack of these tourists around the table, it really doesn't matter if the tourists are around when the market is going up or down. Okay? What matters is if the tourists are there. And right now we can see we are at 5 years low.
People simply are not trading. So it's much harder for us as professional traders to basically create some great trading opportunities. It's not impossible. We are still playing. We are still monitoring the market 24/7 and doing our best to protect our capital and to make as much money as we can at this market cycle.
Right? You always should be doing the best you can. Whatever you do in life, right? Always, every single time, do the best you can. Don't blame the government. Don't blame other people. Just focus on yourself. Focus on your game. So that's what we are doing, right?
But still we need to understand that the traders they need to get back to the market. So we have again the fun trading environments. And right now what's important to understand that people are not interested in going back to the markets when Bitcoin is pushing up.
But they are much more interested all right in going into the markets when Bitcoin is going down. So we have this very logical thing happening in the market, right? Sometimes people are going back to the markets in a fear of missing out. But sometimes the demand is increasing when actually things are becoming cheaper.
Okay? So when things are becoming cheaper, people see it as an opportunity and they buy. It's not always like this. All right? It's not always like this. The same way it's not always like this in a supermarket when they lower the prices they sell more.
Sometimes the high premium products sell more simply because of fear of missing out that like people feel like there's not going to be enough of those products in the supermarket. Right? So the same way we have these kind of mechanics in the crypto market as well and we need to understand the trends.
All right? So trend is your friend until he stabs you in the back, right? But until he stabs you in the back, it's your friend and you should be following what the trends are doing. Okay? So we can see all right the trend is and it started right here in February when we crashed.
All right, as you can see right here in February we have crashed by around 36% ladies and gentlemen. All right. So in February we have crashed and the demand had a spike. All right. So February big crash spike in demand. All right. Then pump nothing.
All right. No new demand. Bitcoin crashed again in June. And as you can see another spike but much lower than this one because this was lower crash. All right. So we need to understand that right now if we want to have again a great market environment with a lot of trading opportunities where we can make money much more easier.
All right again as in the previous years right uh we need to get the retail back. How we going to do it? Obviously the global economy needs to improve as well right? So when the global economy is going to improve, people will have more money to spend and more money to risk basically and definitely they will put it again in the crypto markets, right?
So global economy needs to improve so people can spend their money and spend their money in trading as well. So global economy needs to improve but also the [snorts] price of Bitcoin and crypto in general needs to get attractive enough for those people to get back into the markets.
All right? So global economy needs to improve. That's one thing. But it's going to put inflow of some people. But some people even though if the economy is going to improve, right? But they don't see the value in the Bitcoin. Right? Now we can see the trend is the way that like it's not getting them back when the Bitcoin is pushing up and crypto is pushing up, but it's getting them back
when they see cheaper prices. Okay. So right now the trend is like this. So we need to get the prices lower and market makers know it. If we want to have again healthy markets, great trading environment, if we want the tourists get back around our table and play with us, we want the tourists play with us, right?
Come here tourists play with us so we can play you. Right? We need to put the market lower. Market makers know it. All right? We need to make the prices more attractive, which is increasing the probability right now that we need to see lower prices first before we can start pushing towards the new alltime high that I believe will be at $169,000.
And as you know, another thing that we are watching that still makes us believe that Bitcoin needs to go lower is the net annualized profit and loss. one of many things that you are watching but this is very important and most interesting that is why I'm showing it here in those videos with you all right publicly so take a look at this you already know about it if you are subscribed in
this channel you are watching these videos you know that since 2011 right every time when we could have continuation of the bull market all right we needed to create the macro bottom but how by making bad risk managers aka institutions and individuals that have not been able to manage their risk well, right?
And they have been buying Bitcoin at wrong prices to capitulate. But the way that we are forced them to capitulate, all right, aka we force them to realize their losses and on the other side somebody absorbs that selling pressure aka the smart money, right?
the good risk managers, the one the ones that focus on the long term, not on the short term, right? And they understand the market cycles. That's the smart money. So the smart money absorbs that selling pressure. The price action slows down even there's a lot of realization of the losses of the people on the other side, right?
And that's how the exchange of the hands zone happens. And in 2022, the exchange of the hand zone was at $24,000 to $16,000. It was this zone right here. Right? And then we can start a new bull market. And we can resume the previous bull market.
All right. From the macro perspective, as you can see, every single time since 2011, every single bare market happened by creating the exchange of the hands phase. All right? So in 2022, it was like right here. But in 2026, all right, this is not only the worst year from trading activity.
All right, in the last five years, even more. But also we have not yet gone through the capitulation because right now most of the people already sold. All right, the retail the people the mass is already sold. But the institutions, the bad risk managers that are right now made out of like much few individuals than in the previous years as you can see they have not capitulated yet.
But the market makers understood. All right. The market makers understand that we need to go through this capitulation phase. So then we can resume the rally because the capitulation is so important. So then once the global economy improves all right these institutions can help us to push the prices higher because they will need to buy higher at higher prices right so right now they need to capitulate all right they need to
create the exchange of the hand zone by capitulating and realizing the losses in order for us to resume the bull trend and create a new macro bull market. All right, as you can see, every single time the capitulation phase happened right now, we went close to it, but there wasn't enough realization of the losses.
So, you can probably agree with me that the probability is very low that we can resume a bull market without going through the exchange of the hand zone since every single time since 2011 we went through it. Okay. So that is also why the probability that we will go lower before hitting the new alltime high $169,000 is right now higher.
What we can see right now from the price action development perspective is that you remember if you are around for a long time with me right here you know that we are predicting a bare market since Bitcoin hit that $121,000. We are predicting a five wave to the downside towards the presumed exchange of the hand zone.
The one in this bare market that will happen at 55 and lower boundary $44,000. As you can see, we have touched it almost right but we have not spent enough time in there in this zone for the exchange of the hands phase to be able to happen.
All right. And also from the price action development perspective, we can see that we have not yet concluded that five waves that are very important for the C-wave structure that we are in right now. So we have created one, two, three, which is with the probability an extended one.
Right now we are concluding the fourth wave that is subdividing itself into three smaller waves. It's a corrective wave structure and with the highest probabilities an expanded flat. All right, where the C-wave might take us up to $99,000. All right, but it's also there is also a possibility that if we will not be able to reclaim this resistance at $88,000, we have already finished the fourth wave right here.
That is why given that the edge right now and the trend and everything is just on the bearish side, I'm not playing with bullish trading tactics. All right. So, if you are in Pro 7 VIB, you know, for example that we have been reaccumulating some Bitcoin at $61,000, then at $71,000 as well around that level.
And basically at lower prices, we have been reaccumulating some of our Bitcoin that we were previously distributing at $19,000 and around $121,000. And you know that we have been taking profits already on it. All right. So, I can tell you this. I can tell you this because it's in our hard wallet rotation trading tactic that we are doing inside of the original Paris on VIP membership.
I can tell you this because like a lot of people will be probably angry at me that I'm like sharing this kind of information with you but I think it's helpful. So I'm going to share it with you. So basically we have already distributed some of our Bitcoin at $79,000 and yesterday we have distributed even more.
Okay, I can tell you that. So we are selling. I'm playing with bearish trading tactics ladies and gentlemen into this rally because I do believe that there is much higher probability that we will create we will create one more lower low at least all right below the previous low of $58,000 on the weekly time frame.
So ladies and gentlemen, I'm bearish on the weekly time frame. Okay. And another important stuff, let's right now understand the final Cwave right here. That is an impulse, right? That means it sat itself into five small waves. It can, ladies and gentlemen, finish already right here at that $88,000 given that this resistance will hold.
However, the fifth wave can be also an extended one. All right. From the daily time frame perspective, I'm not bullish right now as well. I'm not bullish. I'm kind of neutral on the daily time frame at this moment until we can reclaim this previous resistance as you can see it was working as a resistance and resistance right here into a support.
So right now this resistance zone on the daily time frame previous resistance zone I mean that was at 82,000 to 84,000 it's not red anymore. It's white because I'm right now waiting if the price action can reclaim it and turn it into a support.
Okay. So what we can see right now it's happening and if it's going to be turned into a support it will show us that the bulls are strong. All right, on the lower time frame on the daily time frame in defending some important levels and it will increase the probability that we will break above that $88,000 and increase higher towards that $99,000.
Okay, so that is why multi-time frame analysis from professional trading perspective is very very important, right? Because it can give you an early signs that on single time frame you would not be able to see. So at this moment what we can see from the volume perspective the volume was with the price action rising as we were breaking above previous resistance zone on the daily time frame which is bullish.
It was above the moving average volume trend line. So nice move. All right. But right now the bears would need to show a stronger participation in order to break this zone back. At this moment, we can see that the price action is declining.
It's it's it's going down. It's reversing from the previous bull trend, right? Lower time frame bull trend. And the volume is actually declining as well, which is suggesting that bulls will be able to hold this if no new bearish pressure will step in.
Okay. So I cannot confirm that with extreme probability right now but this is already an early sign that probably this will be defended. Okay on the daily time frame I need to have confirmations how the daily candle is going to close. I want to see some bullish trading confirmations from the lower time frames as well.
But at this moment neutral on the daily time frame until I see a clear bullish reclaim. Okay. And that will make me to turn this zone into a support or that the bears are stepping in and they are able to break below this moving average trend line and below this zone with increasing volume.
Still it can happen. However, right now the bulls are actually showing strength. Okay, the bulls are showing strength. So on the daily time frame, I'm kind of neutral until the things that I've just talked about. Let's take a look, however, on the lower time frame.
Am I more bullish or bearish on the 4hour time frame? So, on the medium time frame, in the beginning of this video, I've already told you that I'm actually more bearish, right? Because I actually see that we are right now in a possible first impulse wave.
However, am I betting on it? Well, from the macro perspective, I am. That is why with Paris and VIP, we have been distributing some of our Bitcoin. Right. But from for our perspective like from swing trading perspective where I would need to create some swing trading position with clean stop-loss and exit targets and some clean entry price waiting for bearish confirmations.
Why I have been bearish in the previous video? You know exactly well, right? multiple reasons why the sentiment was extremely bullish around the people that are right now in the market and you need to understand like we are at alltime low of trading participation but there is some kind of circle of people that are still trading okay so this circle of people was extremely bullish all right in the previous days so
we were hitting on the our free and greed index the number 80 all right which is extreme greed Okay, which is extreme greed. Together with that, there was this kind of divergence between the crypto whales. All right, that are actually controlling 80% of the money circulating in the market.
All right, but they are only made out of 20% of the market participants. All right. So minority of people controlling majority of the money in the market were on the opposite side selling right. We have seen it selling. And by the way on this crypto whale alert and tracker that you can visit and check on our website my crypto paradise.com inside of insights.
We are having it internally with the paradise teaming but on this page that we are sharing like publicly and also with our pro paracers that are having more insights into everything. A few hours ago to be honest when I was watching what's going on in the market uh I have actually understood that we are only tracking what happened in the past 24 hours but if you are not writing it down you
don't know what happened like 3 days ago 7 days ago 1 month ago. Uh so we will today or tomorrow we are right now in the building process of it. You will also see like not only what is happening live right there is this kind of tape what's happening live and also in the past 24 hours but also what happened 3 days ago 4 days ago because for the past 3 days
if you have been writing it down you know that whales are consistently all right exceeding in selling all right so there's more selling from whales than buying together with that continuously there there was more buying from the majority of people that are controlling minority of the money there.
There was more buying from them. Okay. And we have seen it also on the the confirmation of it is on the funding crates and open interest. But that was the trend right and you know this this kind of divergence between what the crowd is doing versus what the whales are doing is extremely important and it was one of the reasons why we were bearish in the previous video.
Okay, because of this divergence and we are also tracking individual wallets. All right, that you can actually see if you're a pro paradacer and uh you have a great understanding which whales are really good traders like directional traders, which whales are good in mean reversion trading and then you can also track them.
So you see all right this whale is actually doing right now this and that's can that can really help you to determine which whale is actually the smart money whale or which whale is just this kind of I've got a lot of money from my parents whale right so however as a whole we can see like when we take a look at the whales as one bubble they are majority of them
they are selling so it's also good not Only watch only the whales that you know that are good because of their past performance, right? 2 years, 3 years, that's important. 1 month, 3 months, one year, you can be lucky. So don't watch this kind of whales.
We have for that this leaderboard. Maybe it's actually for proper racers. Yeah, that's only for proper racers only, but you can see some of it. All right. So that's why we have this kind of leaderboard. So you can kind of ignore what the dump whales doing and focus on what the smart whales are doing.
So that's one thing of how to watch the whales. Another one take them as one bubble and watch what majority of them are doing. And we can see for the past 3 days they have majority of the whales have been continuously selling while the majority of people the crowds right were buying.
So there's this kind of divergence worth seeing, worth watching, and it's also what's resulted in this medium time frame crash. Okay. On the funding crates, it's getting better. All right. The longs are being less crowded. That is why there is only 4% squeeze probability on Bitcoin at this moment.
It's much higher on Ethereum, but in these videos, we are working on we are focusing only on Bitcoin. So we can see that the funding crates are actually cooling down. Okay, which might be a good thing if you are on the other side.
But from the price action perspective, price action development perspective and from the macro time frame perspective, from the hard degree perspective, we can see first of all on the daily time frame, we can see there is still much more long exposure. All right, the longs are being crowded and we can also see on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map as you have seen in the intro, right?
There is this huge imbalance between the short liquidations if we push to the upside versus the long liquidation if we will push to the downside. Huge imbalance. And given that we are professional traders, we are focusing on the path of least resistance, right?
And because we understand the domino effect, the path of least resistance is on the downside. It is much more easier for the market makers to push one liquidation level on the opposite side that will trigger another liquidation level, right? Because when you are in a long position, you get liquidated, you need to sell the contracts that push pushes the price lower and you can create this kind of domino effect.
So I would be careful with long positions and from a price action perspective development. First of all, I want to see a clear construction of this impulse. All right, which right now is having like some kind of a volume, but I want that to exceed the previous bullish volume.
All right, so maybe on the fifth wave. Let's see. So I want to see completion of the fifth wave. All right, that might finish at that 1.69 Fibonacci retracement level at around $81,000. And then for me to position myself, all right, and if I will position myself, you will know about it in Paris semi VIP into a short position.
I want to see a corrective mode wave to the upside and with decreasement of volume. All right. So on this push to the downside high volume on the corrective wave structure I want to see it to be the corrective mode wave structure and as you know from our MCP3 university if I'm going to find it no probably not in this video but you know that we have nine of these corrective wave
structure patterns right and no I'm not going to find it in this video but I promise you I will prepare it for the next video I thought I have had it here but anyway way. If you are watching these videos, you know that Elliot wave table very well, right?
So, you know that we have nine corrective wave patterns, right? Which usually are three wave structures or variations of thereof. For the secondary waves, it's usually zigzag, which is subdivides itself into A, B, C, where the Awave and Cwave are motive wave structures.
Bwave is a corrective wave structure. If we will be able to recognize this corrective mode wave structure and we will stop it at the previous stop of the first wave which is we will go with this corrective wave structure maximum towards $85,000 on decline in volume.
All right I will position myself into a short position high probability short position with great riskreward aka I will lose much less money if I'm wrong than what I will win if I'm right. I will position myself into the short position in expectation that the bears are strong enough to take over the trend and start pushing lower to the next support zone that we have at $75,000 and then it will produce
into the daily time frame. I will start to turn in bearish on the daily time frame and it will confirm the bearish bias we have right now on the weekly time frame. Okay. So, ladies and gentlemen, trade safe. Trade with a professional trading strategy because if you don't have a strategy, then your strategy is to fail.
And focus on your system. Don't focus on what other people are telling you. Just focus on yourself, on your system, on your process. All right? Focus on your process. We cannot win every time. And we are focusing mostly on risk management and protecting our capital right now especially because of the trading uh situation where the trading activity from the retail is extremely low right and we have been like before 2016 we
have been me personally I have been humbled by the market very much right so since then since 2016 I'm all about focusing on process and focusing on my risk management okay so focus on your risk management I know what I'm saying. All right, I know what I'm saying because of the experience and focus on your risk management and focus on the process.
Okay? And make sure that your process has an edge and just follow it over and over again. You will not win every trade, right? But once you start hitting your winning streak and if your trading strategy is good, you will win much more money during the winning streaks than what you will lose during the losing streak.
And this is called a long-term profitable trading strategy. All right? And that's what trading is all about. Not about excitement, but about building your trading as you build a business. Not trading like you would be in Las Vegas in a casino. All right, ladies and gentlemen.
So, I hope this helps and I will see you again in the next one on Saturday. Cheers. Calm, clear, work done. Now right, no rush, no [music] drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up, clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. [music] M clean set
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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