In short: Simon says Bitcoin is testing its $62,500 medium-timeframe support for a third time, and he puts roughly 70/30 odds on it holding. He stays bullish on the daily and medium frames while bearish on the weekly. He wants a reclaim of $63,500 before targeting $69,000, then watches for a short.
Will Bitcoin’s $62,500 support hold?
Track it live: our Crypto Fear and Greed Index updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
Simon puts the odds at roughly 70/30 in favour of the $62,500 support holding. He calls this a very smart zone to reaccumulate. On the 4-hour frame the structure stays bullish until price breaks and fails to reclaim that level.
He also notes a market-maker angle from his prior Thursday video. Price did wick below the support zone, grabbed some liquidations, and may now push back up. That trap keeps his read on levels and risk tilted bullish for now.
Simon is clear this is a probability, not certainty. A break below $62,500 would flip his medium-frame view. Until then, the ParadiseTeam treats the level as strong.
What confirms the possible reversal?
Simon stacks several signals to reach his 70% number. The retest printed a bullish hammer candlestick with volume above the moving-average trendline, showing bulls stepped in aggressively. He compares it to a similar hammer from July that led to a push higher.
He lists the supporting reads:
- Momentum divergence: price made lower lows while momentum made higher lows
- MACD: a bullish cross of the blue line above the red
- RSI: near oversold 30 with an exaggerated bullish divergence and a cross above its trendline
- Stochastic RSI: both flags pointing up at support
Simon still wants a reclaim and retest before acting. He reads the ParadiseTeam approach across the Bitcoin analysis videos for continuation confirmation.
Where does Simon want to buy or short Bitcoin?
Simon would only long once price can reclaim $63,500, the previous support now acting as resistance. That level confluences with the moving-average resistance near $63,300 and the 1-hour immediate resistance at $63,470.
A reclaim would raise the odds this is the third wave of a higher-degree fifth, pointing toward $69,000. There he expects a shorting opportunity as the higher-degree first wave completes, with targets back toward the $61,000 to $59,000 zone.
If support instead breaks, Simon waits patiently for his buying zone at $61,000 to $59,000 to catch the higher-degree third wave. On the weekly he still eyes $79,000 as a strong resistance and later selling level.
What do funding and sentiment show?
Simon says funding rates are still positive, meaning longs remain crowded and a long-squeeze risk lingers. The funding history reached close to the plus 10% level and is now declining after a small squeeze. He tracks this on the crypto funding rates board.
On sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index sits at 40, which he argues acts like 20 during thin summer liquidity, so participants are getting scared. On the 4-hour frame it already dipped near 20.
Open interest matters most now. Simon and the ParadiseTeam watch for it to decline toward the moving average, signalling trapped longs are exiting and clearing the path higher.
What is Simon’s macro outlook for Bitcoin?
On the weekly frame Simon is still bearish. He sees a final fifth wave completing as an ending diagonal, with a corrective C wave that may lift price before the macro reversal.
He watches net unrealized profit and loss for capitulation. Like every macro bottom since 2011, he expects institutions holding at a loss to finally realise them, letting smart money absorb the selling. He maps the exchange-of-hands zone at $55,000 to $44,000, versus $24,000 to $16,000 in 2022.
Simon believes the new bull market should begin around mid-2027, with a potential new all-time high target of $169,000.
Frequently asked questions
Why does Simon think $62,500 will hold?
Simon gives it roughly 70% odds because of stacked signals at support: a bullish hammer candlestick with above-average volume, a momentum divergence where price made lower lows and momentum higher lows, a bullish MACD cross, RSI near oversold with divergence. And stochastic RSI flags pointing up.
What level does Simon need to reclaim before going long?
Simon wants a reclaim of the previous support now acting as resistance at $63,500. That level confluences with moving-average resistance near $63,300 and the 1-hour resistance at $63,470. A reclaim and retest would raise the odds of continuation toward his $69,000 target.
Where is Simon’s Bitcoin buying zone?
Simon names $61,000 to $59,000 as his buying opportunity zone. If support breaks, he waits patiently for price to reach that area, treating it as confirmation the fifth wave completed and the secondary wave is underway. So he can catch the higher-degree third wave with a leveraged long.
What is Simon’s macro target and timing for Bitcoin?
Simon stays bearish on the weekly and expects a macro bottom near the exchange-of-hands zone at $55,000 to $44,000. He watches capitulation via net unrealized profit and loss. He believes the new bull market should start around mid-2027, with a potential new all-time high at $169,000.
What does funding and sentiment tell Simon right now?
Funding rates are still positive, so longs stay crowded and a long-squeeze risk remains after a small squeeze off the plus 10% level. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 40, which Simon reads as extreme fear given thin summer liquidity. He watches open interest for trapped longs exiting.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned. It is what was said, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Bitcoin is just in our medium time frame support at $62,500 for a third time right now. Can this level keep on holding or are we about to start breaking [music] below it? Let's analyze the probabilities. >> [music] >> My crypto paradise. Very very smart level, very smart zone to reaccumulate and with a potential new all-time high target of $169,000.
So, we are also waiting to see on the macro time frame that the traders and institutions and institutions that were not able to properly manage their risk, they will start capitulating heavily and as we know since 2011, that was every time how the macro bottom of a bear market has been created, right?
So, since 2011, we are basically understanding that the net unrealized profit and loss is very important, okay? To watch because it will show us when the traders that are right now and the institutions that are right now holding their Bitcoins in a loss, when they start capitulating finally, when they are start realizing their losses, and that's going to be the time where the smart money that has been patiently waiting will start
absorbing that selling pressure and like in 2022 in the zone of exchange of the hands, they will start absorbing the selling pressure, right? They will start reaccumulating and then we will be able to start the new macro bull market. I do believe that it will happen in the mid of 2027.
In mid of 2027, we should be already uh starting the new bull market. So, the exchange of the hands zone in 2022 was at 24 to $16,000. I do believe that the exchange of the hands of this macro bottom is going to be at that 55 to $44,000.
Definitely, we will be watching the net realized profit and loss how it's moving, and we will be also then watching in the synergy of the spot buying volume. If really that realization of that losses is being absorbed, right? So, I will keep you informed about that in these videos.
And once we see that it's happening, it will increase the probabilities that we are able to start having a nice reversal to the upside. So, on the weekly time frame, I'm still bearish. The price action should look something like this, ladies and gentlemen, before we will start having the macro reversal.
So, the final fifth wave we are completing in a fashion of ending diagonal. So, right now we are with the highest probability in the corrective wave of this bearish pattern, and it should take us up to $79,000. So, the $79,000 is having a lot of confluences, as you know, we were discussing that in the many previous videos.
So, $79,000, many confluences, henceforth it's working as a magnet, and also it's going to be pretty strong resistance. That going to mean that it will be a nice selling level of the Bitcoins that we have been reaccumulating right here. If you're in Parabolic VIP, you will know exactly what we are doing with our portfolio, because we might also create a short position.
Right now, by the look at it, it should be a very nice swing plus shorting opportunity where the probabilities will be high upon confirmations, and the risk reward will be also very very nice because the invalidation level will be quite close to the potential entry that I'm looking forward to.
However, we don't need to reach that high before we will start pushing below the previous low because this C wave might be also an ending diagonal. If this going to be the case, you know exactly what are the guidelines and rules of an ending diagonal and we might be finishing much much earlier, right?
So, ending diagonal is made out of a five corrective mode waves and the fifth wave can be truncated, right? So, careful about that. I will keep you updated about it. However, right now, the probability still suggests that the C wave is going to be an impulse and we should be able to go towards that $79,000 and right now we might be creating the first wave, all right?
And the secondary wave has not even started yet. So, once it starts, I will be watching the market as a hawk because, you know, that a nice futures long opportunity with leverage will be forming at around 61 to $59,000, okay? So, currently on the daily time frame I'm bullish and actually on the medium time frame I'm bullish as well because this structure is still bullish.
Let's have a look at it. This structure on the 4-hour time frame is still bullish until we break and reclaim the end of the E wave, which is the higher degree fourth wave, which is the support at that $62,500, right? Currently, I will explain to you why.
Currently, I am actually in this kind of belief that this support has much higher probability of holding than breaking below at this moment, okay? So, market structure that we talked about in the previous video is one of the reasons why, because it's much lower probability that this was the final fifth wave and we are already starting the higher degree secondary wave, all right?
It's not absolutely certain, just the probability suggests that until we can break the below the $62,500, we are actually forming the fifth wave, yeah? The final fifth wave as an ending diagonal, so 1 2 3 4 5. And right now we might be creating the third wave, ladies and gentlemen, and it might be some kind of a corrective wave pattern, maybe a zigzag, and then we will have the fourth wave, and
then the final fifth wave will take us towards $69,000, where again will be a nice shorting opportunity because it will increase the probabilities that the higher degree first wave is finished, and I will be definitely looking forward to create some nice short position with targets towards around 61 to $59,000.
If I will press the sell button and will create my trade position, you will know about it in Paradise Summit VIP. So right now, ladies and gentlemen, I think that this support is going to hold. It's much higher probability. As you know, in the previous video, what we were discussing is, right, in the previous video that I recorded for you back on Thursday, that the market makers actually is much more profitable
for them right now to push below the medium time frame support, right? Get some liquidations and then start pushing the market up. So take a look what happens. So this is right now a neutral zone. It was previously a support, right? And as you can see, we really did push below the support zone.
We are right now below the support zone, okay? And we might be pushing upwards. It's the same idea of what we have had in the previous video. So let's understand why. If you have watched the previous video, you know exactly why. So, we were watching the funding rates, right?
So, the funding rates probability squeeze was around it was getting much closer towards that number 20. And most importantly, we've also got the historic funding history. We have got close to the plus 10% level, right? And as you can see at this moment, we are declining out of it.
So, we have got a little squeeze. All right. But the more important thing is to understand what happened with the sentiment during that. And as you can see in the past few days, we have got back to the level 40. We are right now exactly at that level.
This level during summer when the liquidity in the market is small is working something as during healthy market the number 20. AKA the participants in the market right now which are only few there we are at all-time low of trading activity are right now in an extreme fear.
Even though it's not visible, it's visible on this basically navigation as a neutral. However, we know we need to put the market data into a context every time. The number 40 during low activity of trading, especially during the summer is working as number 20 during healthy markets.
So, right now the current market participants, they are getting scared, okay? Every time since July when we went close to the number 40, as you can see then we have started a reversal to the upside, right? So, [snorts] right now the only contradicts to this is that the funding rates are still positive.
What does it mean? There are more long positions than short positions in the market, hence forth the longs are still crowded, right? So, there is still some kind of a risk of a long squeeze. However, we can see if we take a look on our open interest, if we take a look on our open interest right here, that most of the new positions been actually created after after a squeeze that we
have got yesterday, right? So, if you have been watching with me the crypto funding rates on our website, you know that the long squeeze probability went close to zero already, right? On the 4-hour time frame. And it already picked up just recently because the futures positions, long positions, went up again after that crash, right?
So, most of them very aggressively started to long in as the price been pushing to the downside, okay? And right now they are in a long positions. However, if you will start pushing above this moving average trend line on 4-hour time frame, they will start to get trapped.
And given that the Fear and Greed Index is already entering the number 40, all right? And on 4-hour time frame, we have went close to number 20 already, what we can assume right now is that the market is actually in quite a fear mode.
So, they will be willing to close their long positions much more vulnerably. They they will be happy to close their long positions, take some loss, and basically definitely once we see that the open interest is declining at least to the moving average level, that will mean that the long positions are getting out of the market, right?
And the longs are no longer crowded, henceforth the market will have much easier time to start pushing to the upside, okay? So, we are right now watching with the Paradise team the open interest, how that closure of that long positions is being absorbed, okay?
And based on that, we will again navigate the trading positions that we will be creating. So, ladies and gentlemen, right now, until we can reclaim this $62,500 support, I'm bullish on the medium time frame. I do believe this is a strong support, and there is a higher probability.
It's like 70/30, not that much of a probability, but it's actually something what I like was increasing the probabilities are few things. So, for example, on that retest, we we saw that we have created a bullish hammer candlestick pattern afterwards, right? This is a bullish signal because it tells us that the bulls been very aggressive.
So, the bears been pushing the price towards that level, and the bulls stepped in. Stepped in very aggressively. That's why we have created this wick, right? So, this candlestick is called a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Usually, you see such a patterns in bottoms at bottoms of a bear trend, okay?
At bottoms of bear trend, ladies and gentlemen. So, for example, we have seen that right here, back in July, as you can see, yeah? Nice bullish hammer candlestick pattern, and then we have started to push to the upside. What I like even more is the participation on that bullish hammer candlestick.
Take a look at this at the volume. On that creation of that candle, the volume went above the moving average volume trendline, okay? So, I like that. I like that very, very much. Okay? Much bigger participation than on the selling pressure before, okay?
I like that. That's really suggesting that the reversal might be happening. AKA, it's increasing the probability points. That's how we are getting to that 70, right? It's not a random number. 70% probability that this level is going to hold, and that we will see a reversal is quite high, right?
And another thing, take a look at the momentum. There is a clear divergence. The price action has been creating lower lows and the momentum higher [snorts] lows, right? So, this is a clear divergence. The momentum of the bears been fading, right? The bears got weaker and weaker.
All right. So, that's also why the bulls have not been scared to start pushing and defending this level right here because they saw the bears, "Look, they are weak. We can attack them right now." Bang. They attacked. They right now a lot of long positions are trapped, okay?
So, you know exactly what that means. If we take a look also right here at the MACD histogram on those two lines, the blue line is crossing above the red line. This is a bullish cross. It's reaching which is increasing again the probabilities that we will see a reversal and probabilities of this bullish divergence to be playing out.
What will increase the probability even more if we will get a reclaim. So, this is a breakout, nice, but as a professional traders, we want to have even more confirmations, right? Before we pull out some some trigger. So, I want to see also a retest and then with another 4-hour candle on Bitcoin, the the blue line looking on the MACD to the upside and that will increase the probability of continuation and
that the momentum will be able to continue, right? So, it will tell me, "Okay, the bulls are ready to go. They are ready to push. They have free way to do so because the bears basically got absorbed." Let's take a look also on the RSI and it's confirming, which I love.
We are close to oversold area, number 30, and as you can see, we have been we have been creating lower lows since 10th of August, okay? And on the RSI, we actually take a look how steep the price action is. And on the RSI, or we have been creating equal lows, right?
This is exaggerated bullish divergence. Right now, we are having cross bullish cross above the moving average RSI trend line. Again, once we get to re-climb, it will again increase the probability even further. What I like again, stochastic RSI. Another thing, stochastic RSI, both flags looking to the upside.
You know what happened previously when we started to do so. Uh for example, this is not such a great uh example, but we already were pushing into a resistance, so that's why again, context is important. Every data, every indicator you are watching, you need to put contextually about what's going on.
We are right now at support, okay? We are right now at support. So, take a look at this. For example, this is much better example. We were at support as well. Both flags looking to the upside, right? And then, bang, we started the new trend.
So, right now, bulls have really nice opportunity to start taking over, okay? So, that's why I believe that this support has a great potential to hold. Definitely, if you want to increase the probabilities, we need to wait for also re-climb on the low time frame chart, on the 1-hour time frame chart, of the immediate resistance that is right now at $63,470, okay?
What is not comfortable on the low time frame for bulls is definitely the fact that the price action created lower high, and we can see higher high on the MACD histogram, right? So, the momentum of the bulls is kind of being absorbed. They've been pushing or a lot, but they have not been able to break above the previous high on the price action as they were able on the MACD histogram, okay?
So, right now, it doesn't necessarily mean that we will we will start crashing, but it's just a warning sign. There is no bearish cross just yet. There is no confirmation. We are nicely after bullish cross like pushing both of the legs to the upside, but we are getting close to that resistance number zero on the MACD.
So, careful on the 1-hour timeframe. I would be creating some long positions on Bitcoin only once I see that we can reclaim this previous support level right now working as a resistance at that $63,500, okay? If that's going to happen, you can see this level is kind of nicely confluencing with the moving average trend line, which is acting as a resistance on the medium timeframe.
It's also sitting at 63,300 level. So, it's kind of similar similar level. So, nice confluence from multiple timeframes. And once we once we do so, it will increase the probabilities that we are right now creating indeed 1 2 3 the third wave of that higher degree fifth wave, which will increase the probabilities that the price action that we were talking about in the previous video will happen and that we will be
able to start pushing towards $63,000. And there we with highest probability complete the higher degree first wave. And that's going to be a great opportunity for a short, right? If we will start right now pushing below that $62,500, right? Which can happen in a casino, you can also hit a number in a roulette correctly.
Does it mean that it's a smart idea to go to the casino and do these kind of bets over and over again. No, you just got lucky, right? Likewise, when we had 30% probability that the level will not hold, right? 70% that it will, 30% that it won't.
It's not a really nice opportunity because of that probability to be smashing a sell button at this moment, right? It can happen, but do such a trades over and over again and you will go bankrupt. Likewise, if you go to the casino, right?
So, for professional traders, the outcome is not that important as the process you have came to that outcome. Sometimes a loss of a professional trader can actually be a great thing, right? Because it's not about the outcome, it's about how you get to the loss.
It's about the process. Everything in your life, it's not how much money you make or when you make money, it's how you make the money, right? Is it some fair way or is it something that you have cheated somebody, right? It It truly It truly matters how you get to that outcome.
So, ladies and gentlemen, if that's going to happen, if we will reclaim this level, I will definitely not be scared because I will be patiently waiting for the price action to visit my buying opportunity zone, that's 61 to 59,000 dollars. And that will mean that indeed this was the fifth wave and we are right now already in the secondary wave.
And because I want to catch the higher degree third wave, I will definitely be looking to create some nice long position at that level. So, I will keep you updated. Next video will be on Tuesday. As you know, I'm recording for you every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday.
So, until Tuesday, trade safe. Trade with a professional trading mindset. Make sure that you are doing your trades within a professional trading strategy. Your trading tactics gets you only into high probability and great risk reward trades and I will see you again on Tuesday.
Cheers. >> Calm breath, clear eyes, >> [music] >> work done. No worry, no rush, no trade, >> [music] >> right time for snap, clean setup, clean click, execute like a pro, that's it. >> [music] >> Clean setup,
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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