In short: Simon says the $247M long liquidation is a warning, not a bottom. After failing to reclaim $79,000 since August 21, he turned bearish and expects a fourth wave into the $70,000 to $74,000 zone. Funding is positive, longs are crowded, and he sees the path of least resistance pointing lower toward $58,000.
Why did $247M in Bitcoin longs get liquidated?
Track it live: our live crypto funding rates updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
In the past 24 hours, over $247 million in long positions were liquidated, and Simon says many traders are still holding their longs. That crowding is exactly what worries him. It raises the odds of another liquidation event rather than a clean recovery.
Bitcoin is pushing into a roughly $100 million sell wall cluster while trying to reclaim $79,000. It has failed at that level since August 21. You can follow the ongoing calls on the Bitcoin analysis hub.
Why is Simon bearish on Bitcoin right now?
Simon turned bearish once Bitcoin touched the $79,000 level, after several confirmations. The ParadiseTeam had accumulated near $61,000 and targeted $79,000, but the failed reclaim flipped his bias. He has also been bearish on the weekly timeframe for over a year.
Both the weekly and daily charts printed a shooting star candlestick, which often marks a reversal at the top of an uptrend. On the daily, the MACD and RSI show bearish crosses, and the Stochastic RSI points down.
Simon distributed heavily at $19,000 and again near $121,000. He now expects $44,000 to be hit before any new all-time high, which he places at $169,000.
What price levels is Simon watching next?
Simon expects the current fourth wave to touch the $70,000 to $74,000 zone. Price already tapped support at $76,000. He flags $74,000 as an untested moving average trend line and $70,000 to $72,000 as a strong support zone.
His invalidation is clean: a reclaim of the previous high near $81,000 that turns into support. Until then he expects price to push below the $75,000 low, completing a C-wave before a move under the $58,000 prior low. Sizing into these levels matters, as covered in his position sizing guide.
What does the funding data say about a long squeeze?
Simon calls the recent green candle a borrowed money squeeze, not real buying. Spot volume is almost non-existent on the cumulative volume delta, while open interest keeps making higher highs. That combination points to fragile, leverage-driven price action.
With funding rates positive and longs increasingly crowded, he sees a high probability of a long squeeze. The 4-hour timeframe is back in greed mode. You can track positioning yourself on the crypto funding rates board.
How does the ParadiseTeam suggest trading this?
Simon stays loyal to the bears until he sees whales and smart money buying again. He warns there have already been two fake outs. And over $22 billion in liquidations sit below near $58,000, making the downside the path of least resistance.
His message is process over prediction. He stresses timing, sizing and probability, and treating trading like a business rather than a casino.
- Wait for a confirmed reclaim and retest of $79,000 before trusting bulls
- Be careful with overleveraged long positions
- Focus on risk-reward and disciplined execution
Frequently asked questions
How much was liquidated in Bitcoin longs?
Simon says over $247 million in long positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours. He notes many traders are still holding longs, which keeps the market crowded. That leftover leverage, he argues, raises the odds of another liquidation event rather than a clean bounce from here.
Why did Simon turn bearish on Bitcoin?
Simon turned bearish after Bitcoin repeatedly failed to reclaim $79,000 since August 21. Weekly and daily charts printed shooting star candlesticks, and daily momentum indicators like MACD and RSI show bearish crosses. He has been bearish on the weekly timeframe for over a year, distributing near $19,000 and $121,000.
What price levels is Simon watching?
Simon expects a fourth wave into the $70,000 to $74,000 zone, after price tapped support at $76,000. He sees $74,000 as an untested moving average line and $70,000 to $72,000 as strong support. His invalidation is a reclaim of roughly $81,000 that turns into support.
What is the long squeeze risk here?
Simon points to positive funding rates and crowded longs as the setup for a long squeeze. He calls the recent green candle a borrowed money squeeze, since spot volume is almost absent while open interest makes higher highs. That leverage-driven move, he warns, looks fragile rather than genuine buying.
Where does Simon see Bitcoin heading?
Simon expects Bitcoin to complete a C-wave and push below the previous low near $58,000, where over $22 billion in liquidations sit. He believes $44,000 could be hit before any new all-time high, which he places at $169,000. He stays bearish until bulls defend $79,000.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
In the past 24 hours, over $247 million worth of forun positions have [music] got liquidated. But there is a lot of people that are still holding their longs. So, does [music] it mean that another liquidation event is incoming? Let's analyze [music] my cryptoise.
Hello ladies and gentlemen, this is Simon from Market Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to hear. Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. So right now Bitcoin is pushing into around $100 million cell wall cluster. As we can see we are trying to reclaim $79,000.
We are trying to reclaim $79,000 since August 21 and every time it was unsuccessful. Okay. After we have predicted that with the highest probability we will start pushing from $61,000 towards $79,000 we were unsuccessful to break and reclaim that level. So henceforth because of that also I've been bullish for months you know that we have been accumulating with paradise and VIPs at around $61,000 and once we have touched the $79,000 magical
number I have turned bearish after few other confirmations and right now with the highest probability we are creating the fourth wave and once we complete the Cwave of our expanded flat pattern we will start pushing below the previous low $58,000. That is also why I am bearish on the weekly time frame as well.
Ladies and gentlemen, right here we can take a look on the weekly time frame. I am bearish for multiple multiple months for more than a year to be honest. We have turned bearish at $19,000. That was also the time where we started to distribute Bitcoin heavily and then also at $121,000 around that level.
That was another great opportunity to distribute Bitcoin. and afterwards I have been bearish on the weekly time frame since since then. Right? So we expect that $44,000 will be hit before we will be able to start pushing towards the new alltime high that is at $169,000 with the highest probability.
On the weekly time frame, we have created a shooting star candlestick. We will not talk about weekly time frame because we spent a lot of time on it in the previous two videos. But important to understand that the shooting star candlestick is usually visible at the top of the uptrends and it's suggesting a reversal because the bears showed extremely huge strength while Bitcoin was touching our lower boundary of this resistance level.
So on the weekly time frame, we have spent a lot of time in the previous video. Let's right now take a look on the daily time frame. By the way, there is the weekly time frame kind of sign on the daily as well because on the daily we have created the shooting star as well.
All right, after we have touched and try to reclaim the $79,000. So right now with the highest probability, we are creating the fourth wave. As you can see, we have so far beautifully touched our support level at $76,000. There is the one that I showed you already in the previous video right here.
But the fourth wave I do believe will touch 74 to $70,000. And I will tell you why. So $74,000 is very important because it's the moving average trend line that has not been retested just yet. Right? So let's take a look what's at $70,000.
At $70,000, ladies and gentlemen, we actually have this support zone right here. 70 to $72,000. Extremely strong support zone. We will talk about it. But first of all, let's take a look on the daily also at some momentum indicators. So, first of all, MACD here is already creating the bearish cross.
Right now, we will probably have a reclaim of this red line from support into resistance. Right? So break retest for me. This is a successful reclaim once we get a confirmation of another candle closing bearishly and that will create the nice blue line will point it to the downside.
That will be my confirmation that this is a successful reclaim and we might continue to go to go lower. Ladies and gentlemen, what we can see also on the RSI is something similar. The bearish cross already happened upon this candle, this bearish candle.
And right now we might be retesting the blue moving average RSI trend line and possibly we might have also the reclaim. So nothing bullish for me on the daily. We can also take a look on the stoastic RSI. Both legs in this zone looking to the downside.
That is a clear bearish sign and telling us that the bears are fully in control which is decreasing the probability that we will reclaim the previous high. And also this resistance that is having the upper boundary at $84,000 and continue to trend higher.
right now much higher probability is still the price action development of the C-wave that should finish with a truncated fifth and then we will be able to push below the previous low. So let's take a look right now on the structure of that fourth wave and we can see that with the highest probability we are creating it in the structure of an expanded flat where the Awave was a corrective mode wave
the Bwave as well and right now we are creating a corrective mode Cwave with a clear invalidation. The invalidation will be break above the previous high which is right now at around $81,000. Okay, until then there's a high probability that right now we are in the third wave sequence already and we will continue to push below the low of $75,000.
But the invalidation is very clean and that is if we will reclaim the previous high and turn it into a support. Until then, I'm not playing with bulls. The bulls are right now weaker. Even though you can see this green candle, it's not real buying because on the spot we call this borrowed money squeeze.
We can see that since the previous high on the cumulative volume delta, the spot volume is actually almost non-existent, right? And all of that bushing is being created by open interest creating higher highs. And we can assume henceforth that given that we are taking a look at the funding crates the longs are being extremely crowded and there is a high probability of a long squeeze henceforth.
Okay. So I would be careful with long positions until we can get some proper confirmations that the market can really get rid of this bearish structure and start pushing much higher. We can see that the market is currently entering a greed mode again on the 4hour time frame and together with that the funding crates are positive longs are being crowded.
So definitely I would be careful with some overleveraged long positions until we get enough confirmations that finally the $79,000 can be reclaimed. Okay. So right now we need to understand that if the reclaim will be a success. I want to see a retest.
Okay, I want to see a retest of this of this level from resistance into support. If that's going to happen, I will very comfortably start pulling my bullish trading tactics and because the bulls will show me that they can defend levels and that they are strong.
Right now I don't see this being a strong move. I see this is a squeeze. Open interest is increasing on it. Accumulative volume delta however has not been able to break above previous highs. So the real volume the spot volume is not really involved in this candle right now.
So ladies gentlemen also shooting star candlestick right here. You know what happened previously. I would really be careful like we have got already two fake outs right here. A lot of people got caught in it currently. You know that in the intro I've showed you that $200 million worth of long positions has been liquidated only on this.
We have a huge imbalance right here that we already went through in the previous video on the on the higher time frame. So if I push to 90day, right, we can see that okay, we might liquidate, we might wick wick above $81,000 to get rid of this overleveraged short position cluster.
But as you can see, if you will start pushing to the downside, right back to the previous daily low at around $58,000, we will liquidate over, hold on, let me shift the focus here on the yearly time frame. we will liquidate over $22 billion.
However, the similar length to the upside only around $99 billion. So for the market makers, it's uh the path of least resistance is to the downside. You know that when you liquidate some over leverage position because when you close the long sure you need to you need to sell it, right?
So that pushes the price lower and it hits another liquidation level and that pushes again the price lower and it creates this kind of domino effect. And the domino effect is much easier. It's much easier right now to create on the left side aka the side below us.
So I would be careful about this. It can be another fake out as we have already seen two times ladies and gentlemen until I have seen enough confirmations that the bulls the market the whales all right the smart money are being involved in a bullish buying again until then I'm not really interested in playing with them okay until that bearish structure that we are seeing on daily time frame and on the
weekly time frame is diminished I rather Be loyal to bears because they are much stronger right now. So don't be caught in a fake out. Play with a professional trading strategy. Focus on discipline trading. Focus on process. All right? Timing into trades is extremely important.
Knowing how much to size into a position is extremely important. Calculate your probabilities, ladies and gentlemen. And please, if you are not in PR semi VIP and you are not following our trading strategies and trading tactics, you need to develop your own, okay?
Because if you don't have a strategy, then your strategy is to fail. And I want you to be long-term successful. I want you to be long-term profitable. And I know that by randomly trying to guess the market without a proper plan, without a proper system, without a proper strategy, you can get lucky for a few months, even for some some years, but then another market cycle hits, right?
And I've seen that since 2016, most of the traders that can outperform us in the short run then start losing absolutely everything, right? So, it's about having a strategy that can survive multiple years, all of the market cycles and that can really safely grow your capital.
It's not going to be rapid, right? Because of the risk management that is slowing it down, but at least you can then treat it as a business and not as a casino. So, ladies and gentlemen, focus on your riskreward, on your probability, and I will see you again on Saturday.
Until then, cheers. Calm breath, clear eyes. Work done now. Right. No rush, no [music] drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. [music] M clean set
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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