Bitcoin Whale Shorts $40M: Simon Turns Bearish at $79K

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This mysterious whale bets $40 million against Bitcoin and Ethereum. Just when retail is finally coming back to the market, the whale is absorbing that buying pressure and opening short positions. Is this whale on to something or will he get liquidated? Let's analyze my cryptoise.

Yo, ladies and gentlemen, this is from my crypto paradise. Welcome back. It's great to hear. Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. So, previously we talked about multiple weeks ago that from $61,000, Bitcoin will pump towards $79,000 with the highest probability $79,000 has been hit.

And as you can see, market participants are trying to push above our magical number $79,000 for multiple days. Right now in the previous video we were looking at this candlestick pattern and we assumed that with the highest probability we will close it as a shooting star candlestick pattern which happened and as you remember this is usually visible this shooting star candlestick pattern at tops of an uptrends.

So usually it's working as a reversal signal because you see it at the top of the uptrends. But why? because the bears showcase an extreme strength. Okay, so that's why because they are defending our level 79,000 as you can see they are extremely strong.

The bears on the daily time frame are extremely strong and they have created this textbook shoot and star candlestick. It is even a stronger signal if after is a shooting star the next candle bearish engulfing. All right, that then creates this beautiful candlestick pattern, a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern which it has not happened.

All right, but still this shooting star candlestick is there and as you can see the body of that candle precisely they have pushed below our level $79,000 ladies and gentlemen and on the VPVR you can see that we are having an extreme activity around this level.

It's extremely important level the $79,000 there is and so far for multiple days the bulls are trying to push above it but as you can see they have been unsuccessful to close even a single daily candle above it just yet. So that's bearish right that is also why I have turned after many weeks you remember for multiple weeks I was bullish on the daily time frame right you remember that I've been

bullish for multiple weeks on the daily time frame and on the daily time frame I right now have turned after we have hit after we have hit our target $79,000 actually turned bearish so I'm no longer interested into reaccumulation I have been reaccumulating with paradis VIP's Bitcoin right here at $61,000.

I'm no longer reaccumulating. And if you are in Bernson VIP, you exactly know what we have done with our reaccumulation at this level right here at this zone. And right now, the probabilities just suggest that the weekly time frame is showing the thing that we are expecting since 109 and $121,000.

and that is that we are going down towards the next magical number $44,000. So as you remember back when Bitcoin was trending around $121,000 with Paris and VIPs that we have taken that as another opportunity to distribute distribute our bitcoins because we have anticipated that with the highest probability bitcoin will actually have a reversal.

All right. And we'll no longer continue to the upside, but we'll have a reversal and we will start shifting towards this zone 55 to $44,000, which is an extremely important zone. In my opinion, it's the same zone as we have had back in 2022 that we have called an exchange of hands zone in 2022.

That was around 24 to $16,000. That was the zone where the capitulation happened, right? That was the zone where the capitulation happened and basically as we can see on our net unrealized profit and loss back in 2022 the institutions and traders that were not able to manage their risk well they needed to capitulate mostly the Bitcoin mining companies in order for them not to go bankrupt and to survive and they've capitulated

and sold all of their bitcoins in a loss. We already know that right now multiple companies they are holding their bitcoins in a loss and we have went close to the capitulation number all right below zero but we still see that even though the pressure was high for multiple weeks on them they have not realized their losses.

So they are holding their losses still but they have not realized their losses. And for the exchange of the hands we really need those bad risk managers to realize their losses in order for the smart money for the smart money to absorb that selling pressure accumulate reaccumulate and then we can start the bull market.

Since 2011, this exchange of hands magic always happened during the bare markets and it was the key event before we could have a new bull market cycle. So from a technical perspective, from price action perspective development, this is nicely playing to what we are expecting since that $121,000 and that is a wave structure that is subdividing itself into 500°ree waves that will take us towards that exchange of the hand zone that

will with the highest probability be around 55 to 44,000. So, so far as you as you know because you are watching these videos two three times a week actually Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday I'm recording for you these videos here on YouTube exclusively on YouTube for free and you know that we are expecting those five waves.

So 1 2 created three fourth wave created and right now we are having the extended fifth wave since the third wave has not been the extended one which usually is but sometimes it is not and from the guidelines of aliot wave we know henceforth that the last motive wave structure should be the extended one.

Right? So that is why you can see beautifully the subwaves of the fifth wave and as we already know it will from the perspective of what we are seeing on the onchain be an ending diagonal. All right and it will nicely give the opportunity for the market makers to reaccumulate safely at that exchange of the hands zone.

So so far we know that the ending diagonal is subdividing itself into five smaller waves. Right? So let me let me show you right here ending diagonal. This is a bullish ending diagonal. But the same structure is when it is bearish ending diagonal.

Five subwaves. All of them corrective wave structures. So this was a corrective wave zigzag structure. That was the first wave of the ending diagonal. Right now we are touching beautifully our resistance right here as you can see and we are creating the secondary wave which was the ABC expanded flat structure.

So this was a zigzag. This is the expanded flat with the highest probability which is not yet finished. We will talk about it and once this one is finished and if we can defend this resistance on the weekly time frame at around that 79 to that 82,000 because the invalidation is extremely close right now and it's very simple.

If we will start reclaiming above the previous high $82,600, then the ending diagonal structure will be invalidated. Right? That is why we have this resistance zone right here. Wounts are possible and actually might happen because if you take a look right now at the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, some of the people, not a lot of them, like minority of people, but there's a cluster of people that actually starting to short.

And as you can see, they have their liquidation levels structured around $83,000. If you will actually push towards that $83,000, $3.7 billion worth of short positions will be liquidated. Yeah. So from the short-term perspective, there is this kind of imbalance on the upside because the similar length there downside, we will not liquidate that much only two billions.

But take a look at this. So if you are having a short position on right now without confirmation, I don't know if you if you have it. It depends on what kind of trader are you. It depends really on what kind of trading tactics, what kind of trading strategy you have.

But for some reason, you might have such a short position where you have placed your stop loss at this weird number 83,000 which is not above my resistance, right? It's exactly at that resistance. So I don't know but some people think like it's a smart level to get liquidated or to put their stop losses.

So if you are having their stop losses or your stop losses or your liquidation level at that $83,000 I would be careful. Okay, I would be careful. I think like you are much clever than that. So I don't think you are being at this cost right there.

But uh the people that are there should be should be careful should be quite worried to be honest because they might get liquidated and it wouldn't break the bearish structure that we are watching on the daily time frame. Okay. So there might be a really wick like this and it wouldn't invalidate this bearish structure that we are watching.

If however we will start reclaiming the resistance and it will start turning into a support that will be reclaim of this previous high successful one. It won't be a fake out and I will not be scared on looking into some long positions. Okay.

So I will change from my bearish trading tactical thinking which I have right now. Um I'm focused on bearish trade setups upon confirmations into bullish trading setups. Right. So you know as a professional traders we have strategy we have our system that's what we are playing based on and then once we have our bias then we need to implement our trading tactics.

So if we have bullish bias which I would have once we reclaim this resistance into support I will start implementing my bullish trading tactics. I have a lot of them in my arsenal and those bullish trading tactics help me to get nicely positioned in my long setups, right?

In order for me to be catching only the highest probability trade setups and with the highest riskreward possible as well. There is always this kind of trade-off. Sometimes the probability is not that good, but the riskreward is excellent. So I go into that trade and sometimes the probabilities are extremely perfect but the risk reward is not that great but I will go for that anyway if I have enough enough points.

So however if the risk reward is horrible and the probabilities of the trade are just medium I rather miss a trade than risking my capital and the capital of my clients unnecessarily. Right? So, it's always the trade-off and based on your trading system, you need to recognize if you are willing to risk on that position or not.

And then if you can successfully follow your process, it's really about process, not the outcome. If you are focusing only on making money, you will lose. You are no better than the gambler in a casino. But if you are focusing on a process, how you get to that outcome, then you are putting yourself into a position of a professional poker player that can be long-term profitable.

All right, so ladies and gentlemen, right now we can see that the expanded flat pattern ABC is trying to get completed. All right, we can assume that the third wave of that higher degree Cwave is already being finished. All right. Or is finishing because of already having these kind of bearish signals of that shooting star candlestick pattern for example and momentum already slowing down.

We don't have the bearish cross just yet. We don't even have a bearish divergence. Okay, as we can see higher high on the price action, higher high on the momentum indicator. We don't see a bearish divergence on RSI neither. Right? So stoastic RSI is however having bearish cross.

And what we can see also on the volume is divergence from the price action. So the price action is creating higher highs but the volume we can see is fading right is creating lower highs. So the participation is already of the bulls going down.

And given that we can see also on the cumulative volume delta that on the spots they are trying to push they are still pushing. They are buying on the spot. Usually spot is a smart money right. However, as we can see, there is again this kind of divergence.

So, if you take for example this section right here, which is suggesting basically that the buying pressure is getting absorbed right now by the sellers. So, if I I don't have the horizontal tool right here. Anyway, I mean vertical tool. But take a look at this high.

All right. And this high right here. Yeah. And as you can see, so far we have created a lower high. But on the CVD on the cumulative volume delta where we are tracking only spot volume we have already created a higher high which suggests that all of this got already absorbed because we are having this divergence.

If nobody would be absorbing this buying pressure all right the price action would do higher high as well right but because somebody probably absorbed all of this buying pressure we can see that the price action so far created a lower high. All right, which again given that we also understand that the participation on the volume we can see the participation of the bulls is decreasing is actually a warning sign for the

bulls. Okay, so still I'm bearish on the daily time frame and this is just giving me a better conviction to stay bearish on the daily time frame. So yeah, open interest. What however is just giving me this kind of doubts that we will have enough liquidity to start pushing to the downside aggressively is the fact that the open interest is no heavily increasing.

Yeah. So we can really see that even though the market is greedy, what we can perfectly see on our free and greed index on the daily time frame we are at 80, right? Usually when we can when when we can historically confluence the number 80 with some of important resistance which we are at right now we are at important resistance.

It's usually working as a top like a top signal right and we are seeing a reversal. However, we don't see an extreme conviction from traders. So they are feeling greedy but they are not opening extremely high leverage long positions just yet because the open interest we can see is kind of flat.

However, the current market participants that are playing in the market right now, we can see on the funding crates that they are in a long positions uh we have a long squeeze probability 30% which is not that high but we can clearly see that more people that are currently trading are in a long position.

So the funding rates are positive. The longs are getting crowded. Definitely there would be a fuel to start squeezing to the downside. Definitely from the longer time frame perspective there is huge imbalance right. So on the lower time frame there is imbalance to the upside there might be the wick towards $83,000 but then take a look on the longer time frame right if you will start pushing towards back our magical number

$61,000 we will liquidate $19 billion ladies and gentlemen worth of cumulative long positions. All right, that are the long positions that are for quite long time in the market and still holding their longs. Okay, so there's a huge imbalance. So from a short-term perspective, I'm not extremely bullish for me at least to take a bullish position.

Okay, but I understand the risk of that there might be a wick towards $83,000. All right. Doesn't mean I would create a long position right that based on that like bias but I understand there is this risk that is how I'm thinking about my trading tactics understanding this for example right so there might be a wake to liquidate those people right here towards that $83,000 it's nice liquidation event would be nice

liquidation event and then but however afterwards there is not enough fuel to keep on like going up and the market structure is still heavily bearish. I do believe that the bears would be defending that quite well and so that's that means that if you'll start pushing here the higher probability is that uh we will then see a reversal to the downside.

Okay, much lower probability then that we would reclaim this level this resistance at around $84,300 and start continuing to the upside. So that's also how I am uh based on what I am right now treating the market based on. Okay. So ladies and gentlemen, right now still however I do believe that we are concluding on the daily time frame the Cwave as we know the Cwave of an expanded flat is a

motive wave structure. That means it sub itself into five small waves one to three. The third wave in my opinion already finished right here and right now we are already creating the fourth wave and then we will create the truncated fifth wave since we have already touched the key level and then we will see a reversal.

Okay, not for me for a position just yet for some big big short position that I would be targeting prices below the previous low $57,000. But um really with the Paris team, we are watching the market as hawks and we are waiting for the confirmations for us to create a beautiful big short position.

And if you are in Paris VIP, you will know about it firsthand because we are sharing with you our personal trade setups with clear entry and exit targets. So right now I'm really watching for watching out for these kind of confirmations, ladies and gentlemen, and I'm waiting for the market to give me a very nice trading opportunity.

And definitely I will keep you updated about what's going on in the market in the next video. And yeah, so I will see you back on Saturday. So until then, trade safe, trade with a professional trading strategy, focus on disciplined process, not the outcome.

Okay? Focus on disciplined process because that's the only way you can actually control, right? You cannot control the outcome because even with a really great process, sometimes you might lose, right? So you cannot really control the outcome. What you can control however is developing a great trading strategy.

Developing a great system with a nice plan with a nice trading tactic. Get into your trading positions. Always keep the odds on your side henceforth and continue following your process. So you can follow your you can control your process. Okay? And that's extremely important.

A lot of people feel like they are not they cannot be in control in the crypto markets. I'm telling you, you can you can be in control. You are not the victim of these market maker manipulators. All right? You can create a process that exploit the market vulnerabilities.

All right? And you can position yourself as the market makers and then do it over and over and over again and in the long run you will be successful. Okay? So focus on the process not on the outcome. The process is what you can control.

The outcome is not. That's random. All right? You can have like on coin you have 50% chance it's going to be ahead or that it's going to be tail right so when you are tossing the coin however it's not always 50/50 that sometimes you will one time you will lose second time you will win right sometimes basically you can hit eight times in a row even more times the same side of

the coin. So like does it mean that the coin is somehow like tricked? Does it mean that the probabilities are actually 80/20 for example? No, it's just randomness. In short run, it's randomness. But in long run, okay, in long run, in the large number theory, if you will be tossing the coin enough times, for example, 500 times, it starts to even out.

All right? So you will start to understand that after those 500 tosses really it's around 50/50. 50 times you have hit heads, 50 times you have hit tails. Okay. But in the short run that's random. You can get lucky, you can get unlucky in the short run.

That is why in trading even the worst uh possible even like your kid if you have a three-year-old kid and you give him access to your exchange account in the short run your kid can make money in in trading okay in crypto does it mean that you should hand him your millions and let him trade probably not right so the but some people feel like they they win few times in markets

and that they can do long-term successfully like it's really so random in the short run. So focus on the long term, focus on your proess and focus on long-term growth, not this kind of get-richqu schemes. Ladies and gentlemen, I wish you I wish you great focus and discipline and I will see you back on uh Saturday.

Until then, take care. Cheers. Calm breath, clear eyes. Work done now. Right. No rush, no drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. M clean set