Bitcoin Whale Sells $9M: Simon Stays Bearish Near $78K

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A mysterious Bitcoin whale has sold $9 million worth of Bitcoin in just the past two hours. At the same [music] time, most traders still feel bullish. So, what's next for price? Let's analyze [music] my cryptoiseise. [music and singing] Hello, ladies and gentlemen. This is S from My Crypto Paradise.

Welcome back. It's great to hear. Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. Previously, we talked about Bitcoin on the daily time frame two months ago when Bitcoin was trading at $61,000. We understood that with the highest probability we will push towards $79,000.

After we have pushed towards $79,000, we have turned bearish on the daily time frame. But we are also monitoring the lower time frames. So then we have started this lower time frame sideways movement on the daily time frame as you can see right here sideways movement right and we have turned our focus on the 1 hour time frame where we have understood that with that probability we will push towards $79,000 after

we have pushed towards $79,000 and after we have created this shoot and star candlestick pattern we have rejected from that resistance from that $79,000 magical number resistance distance. Well, and in the last video, ladies and gentlemen, what we have expected is that we will with the highest probability push towards this support zone, right?

Which is marked by two important Fibonacci retracement levels. Well, and then we will start pushing to the upside again, right? So, let's see what happened on the 1 hour time frame. We can see that indeed we have pushed towards our support zone right here.

Upper boundary was nicely touched at that 75,000 $500. Now we are moving up and we are already testing the first important resistance from the previous video that I have shared with you right here at that $76,700. The 1 hour candle is closing in 36 minutes.

Let's take a look and analyze if we can push towards that resistance $78,000 that I do believe is going to be the important resistance on the 1 hour time frame and from the price action development perspective that's going to be the secondary wave right where if we get enough confirmations we will probably open with Paris and VIP's swing plus short position.

I'm a swing plus trader and we will be looking into pushing below the previous local low which was created at $74,900. So let's take a look at it ladies and gentlemen. The situation right now as you know from the intro is that the whales for the past 2 three hours they were selling right $9 million.

It was one hand because right here I can see that it was on the HDX exchange. So some Asian and then also afterwards just one hour ago a big whale that we are tracking that we have named Deep Water for [snorts] sold $14 million worth of Bitcoin.

All of this is a spot ladies gentlemen. Okay, this is spot. That's the real money, ladies and gentlemen. So, why am I still bearish on the daily time frame? Well, because I understand that the big whales, all right, they're working with a lot of money on the spot exchange, they are distributing extremely heavily, right?

So on the cumulative volume delta it's also v visible on the cumulative volume deltas on the spot exchange it's visible that this push on the 4hour time frame from that $82,000 ladies and gentlemen this is not borrowed money this is not shorting all right that created this crash from $82,000 towards $74,000 all right this is distribution on this bot exchange that means the Smart money are distributing their Bitcoin.

As you can see, it went to the level from where we have previously started the push from around that $64,000 towards that $82,000. As you can see, without the price action moving back to that level where the accumulation started, right? Well, it's already started right here, but from that baseline watermark zero, as you can see, the cumulative volume delta is already back at that level and the price action has not moved

to that level. That suggest distribution that is being absorbed. But by whom? And then we can turn our focus what the retail is doing, right? And we can see that on the 4hour time frame and on the daily time frame as well they have been very bullish and they are still not scared right we are not in a fearful mode the fear and greed index is showing us that majority of people

still feel greedy okay and it's visible also on the funding crates the longs are crowded we are having positive funding crates the long squeeze probably is at this moment moment 31% which is in this current market cycle quite substantial. All right. So who is actually absorbing that selling pressure?

not the smart money but the retail right the borrowed money the leverage which is suggesting that whales aka the smart money are using that buying liquidity from retail in order for them to be able to dump their backs without moving the price that much right so at this moment what we can actually see on the net long and net short positions is that on the lower time frames something similar has happened

right so the whale have been selling right and it was absorbed with long positions so long positions are right now crowded which is basically improving that bias that after we hit my important resistance at $78,000 we will have the path of least resistance to the downside again.

So, it's decreasing the probability because we understand what's going on behind the scenes that we will be able to reclaim this resistance and push above the previous local high at $79,500. And there is much higher probability that this resistance will work as a proper resistance should work and we will push to the downside where that's going to be the path of least resistance.

Okay? Because of the domino effect, we understand that if longs are being crowded, then it's very easy for the whales just to push towards some important level. It triggers the liquidation, the long position gets sold and that immediately pushes the price a little bit lower, triggers the next liquidation level and we create this kind of liquidation event.

That is why watching the funding crates is very important and that is why on our website my crypto paradise.com we have prepared for you this funding crates where we are also calculating the probability of a long squeeze or short squeeze for free. So you can you can use it for your own good.

So at the same time we understand that the whales are distributing on the higher time frames. That is why on the weekly time frame I'm still bearish. Ladies and gentlemen, as you know, since $121,000, we do expect that Bitcoin will push towards $44,000.

I have not changed my bias since then. On the weekly time frame, I still believe that there is a higher probability of pushing towards the exchange of the end zone 55 to $44,000 that this probability of pushing there is much higher. then that we will create new alltime high at $169,000 first.

Yeah. So, first I do believe we need to go lower before we go higher. From the price action development perspective, it supports our buyers. We have not yet completed the final fifth wave of that five moves that we are expecting from that $121,000.

And uh with the highest probability the fifth wave is being created inside of this pattern that we call ending diagonal that you can learn about on our website my crypto paradise.com as well. But if you're watching these videos you know exactly what I'm talking about how important the ending diagonal is right and what kind of structure it has.

So it has five subwaves. So far we have created already two and there's a high probability that right now we will create the third one that will push us below the previous low $58,000 then fourth one and the final fifth wave might push us towards that $44,000.

It's a very high probability. That's also why with parallel VIPs, if we will push towards this zone, I will be treating that as aggressive reaccumulation territory and we will reaccumulate back the bags that we have sold with Paris and VIPs at around $19,000 and around $121,000.

Yeah. So, if you will get enough confirmations, I will be reaccumulating aggressively my Bitcoin back here. And if you're in Paris VIP, you will know about that firsthand. Let's right now zoom in into the price action of this secondary wave on the daily time frame.

We know that with the highest probability, we have completed the pattern that we called expanded flat where the C-wave subdivides itself into five smaller waves as well. and the final fifth wave. We have understood that given that during the price action development of the fourth wave, we have already touched an important level $82,000.

We have understood that with the highest probability the fifth wave is going to be truncated one. All right. So we will talk about that truncation once we zoom in into 4hour time frame. But before that let me tell you ladies and gentlemen there is nothing bullish on the daily time frame.

So still I'm bearish on the daily time frame as well. So I do believe that there is much higher probability of pushing below the previous low $58,000 then breaking above the previous high $82,000 and reclaiming this resistance $82,400 to $84,200. Yeah, that's this resistance zone from the daily time frame perspective.

At this moment it seems like much lower probability of reclaiming this then pushing lower. Yeah. So we understand here the whales are already distributing. We are understanding what's happening behind the scenes and that's increasing the probability that we'll push lower because the path of least resistance is right now to the downside from the daily time frame perspective not to the upside.

Okay. Momentum is nicely confirming that we can see a bearish divergence. Higher high on the price action, lower high on the MACD histogram. We have got a bearish cross and also reclaim from the downside. So cross retest and now both flags are continuing looking to the downside.

That's a strong bearish sign and it tells us that the bears are in control and until we see some changes in the momentum. Bears will stay in control on the daily time frame. RSI supporting that bias as well. We are below the moving average RS trend line going from an overbought area.

Stoastic RSI is in an oversold area. But that's not bullish, right? We understand that for some bullish confirmation, we need to see both flags starting to look to the upside. And in this zone, as we can see right here, the bulls will have hard time to create momentum until breaking some important resistance level.

And since we understand that from the lower time frame as well, there are these kind of mechanics that where the path of east resistance is to the downside. It's going to be really hard for the bears at this moment on the daily time frame to create some momentum and push above the previous high local high on that $82,000.

And that is why the probabilities are still suggesting that on the daily time frame we will go much lower. So, I'm still bearish on the daily time frame, ladies and gentlemen. Double shooting star candlesticks right here and right here. As you can see, we are perfectly defending that $79,000 magical number.

Let's take a look right now at this price action development. Let's zoom in into 4hour time frame. So with the highest probability as we have already broke down in the previous video the fifth wave is finished and right now we are creating the next zigzag right ABC where the Awave is a motive wave structure that means it subize itself into five small waves 1 2 3 4 5 and the first wave

of that five is also a motive wave structure so there's a high probability that we are already starting the first wave that we completed the first wave right here and right now we are doing the secondary wave. Okay. After that if this is going to be the corrective mode wave structure which I believe is regular flat.

If there's going to be a confirmation of that corrective mode wave pattern that means all right bulls are already controlling the price action to the downside. They are weak. The bulls are weak on the upside. They are creating corrective wave patterns. That means there's a very high probability that the next big move is going to be to the downside again.

And upon a lot of confirmations, more confirmations there for me at least, there will be a nice opportunity to create a nice short trade. Probably if we get up to that $78,000, that will be nicely confluenced with a great resistance. And as a professional trader, I do care about not only high probability trade setups, but also the kind of trade setups where I can have as good as possible riskreward.

All right. So what's the reason of that? It's that even though I have a high probability of winning, I can still lose money, right? So even a great setup can lose money. Even though I have 80% on being correct in my trading decision, I can still lose money, ladies and gentlemen.

So that is why I want to be creating such trades that I have much less probability of losing but I understand I can lose and if I lose I want to have this kind of setup where I will lose as little money as possible.

Okay. And on the other hand when I'm correct I want to maximize my profits as much as possible. So then if I can confluence high riskreward trades with high probability trades, right, I will be winning more often and also when I win, I win much more than I will lose, right?

And then during winning streaks, I will make much more profits than what I lose during losing streaks. And that's how we have built our strategy. That's how we have built our trading tactics. And that's why I focus on the process not on the outcome.

Okay? So even a bad trade can win you money. Okay? Even a gest trade can win you money. Even if you go to the casino, right, and you have very low probability of winning in roulette on a number, you can still win, right?

Does it mean that you should be going to the casino every day and bet on some number? No. Right? Because if you will keep doing this, you will lose all of your money. It's very simple to understand in casino perspective but in trading for some reason people are happily trading without any strategy without any plan they are lucky they make a lot of money and they believe they can keep doing it

and they can keep being profitable in the long run. Well watch them for 3 years most of those people lose everything. They can be profitable for a few months even for like one two years but 3 years is the magical cycle right the big cycle where a lot of smaller cycles happens and the luck doesn't survive even the luckiest person in the world if he is day trading that means that he's

monitoring the market on daily basis he doesn't need to make trading decision like uh trading setups every day but he's monitoring the market every every day he will lose because he doesn't have proper strategy. So luck can stick with you for some time, right?

But not for so long to make you long-term profitable. For long-term profitability, you really need to have a great system, high probability trade setups and great riskreward. So at this moment, there is a high probability that we are pushing to the upside, creating the secondary wave, right?

As we have been expecting. So this is one, two corrective mode wave patterns, right? ABC ABC and right now with the probability we are creating the C-wave motive wave structure which is an impulse so five sub waves right now we are pushing the final fifth wave if there is going to be an extension we might push towards that resistance if it's going to fall short probably we will stop at $77,400 yeah

because that's important 0.618 618 Fibonacci retracement level. If we take a look at this sequence right here, we can see that we can actually confluence two 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels aka the golden ratios quite close to each other. All right. So, I can actually create a zone right here.

So, another important resistance zone is at $77,500 to $77,769, ladies and gentlemen. So this is one important resistance zone from the 1 hour time frame perspective where we might already finish the secondary wave. All right. And the next one, the last one. All right.

Right here at $78,300 to $78,900. All right. That will be the last target for that secondary wave. If we will reclaim this resistance, I will start looking to trade with bullish trading tactics. Until then, I'm treating the 1 hour time frame as a bear.

Basically, I'm focusing on bearish trading tactics. Yeah. So, bearish trading tactics, bullish trading tactics. You need to know what to focus on, right? And then you need to be patiently waiting to execute like a sniper. Just clear shots. Don't be a random shooter, right?

Don't be emotional in entering positions. Don't feel this fear of missing out. Don't feel greedy that you want to make more money than you are making because all of this will make you emotional and it will destroy your strategy. So it's really also once you have a strategy you need to follow it with discipline, focus, discipline and patience, right?

Because having strategy is great but then you need to follow it. You need to follow the process in a good times and in a bad times as well. So it's about not being consistent in making profits every week because everybody wants that but it's not possible.

The market is random. You don't know when you get an opportunity. What you need to be consistent is in following your trading system. All right. And we are again at don't focus on the outcome. Focus on the process. A lot of people focus in like on the kind of things they want in the life and then I will start enjoying my life.

So when I get this house or when I get this girl then I will be happy. Those people will never be happy. All right? Focus on the process of how you are going to get the house. All right? Because then when you get the house you will not be happy anyway.

Right? But if you will be happy during the process of getting the house then having the house first of all that will be just the side product of your of your great process and you will not be happy just because you have got something material but because the journey because of the process you are getting to it right so it's important in trading and in real life if you want to have

a great life to focus on the process not the outcome because the outcome come we don't have in our power right like I don't know what's going to happen in trade I can open a trade it's a high probability trade and it can still lose money even though the trade comes with 90% probability of winning right I can't I can't basically involve that right so what I can however control is the

process that I'm opening and closing the trades with so focus on the things that you have control over don't focus and don't stress about things that you don't have a control about that you cannot control because that's just going to make you emotionally stuck and it will slow you down in your progress of becoming a professional trader and in your progress in life as well.

So ladies and gentlemen, right now the highest probability thing is that we are creating the secondary wave. It might stop right here or right here with the highest probability and then we will start pushing to the outside. Okay. So from here or from this zone I will keep you updated.

Definitely this is just right now what I'm seeing in the market. Something else can happen for sure. All right. This is just the highest probability trade idea I see at this moment on the market. Okay. So ladies and gentlemen stay safe. Trade with a professional trading strategy.

Focus on risk first. Trade second. And I will see you again on Saturday. Cheers. Calm breath. [music] their eyes. Work done now. Right. No rush, no drag. [music] Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. M clean set