Bitcoin Whale Sells $9M: Simon Stays Bearish Near $78K

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A mysterious Bitcoin whale has sold 9 million dollars worth of Bitcoin in just the past two hours. At the same time, most traders still feel bullish. So what's next for price? Let's analyze. Hello ladies and gentlemen, this is Simon from MyCryptoParadise. Welcome back, it's great to be here.

Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. Previously, we talked about Bitcoin on the daily time frame, 2 months ago when Bitcoin was trading at $61,000 we understood that with the highest probability we will push towards $79,000 after we have pushed towards $79,000 we have turned bearish on the daily time frame but we are also monitoring the lower time frames so then we have started

this lower time frame sideways movement on the daily time frame as you can see right here sideways movement right and we have turned our focus on the one hour time frame where we have understood with the highest probability we will push towards $79,000 after we have pushed towards $79,000 and after we have created this shooting star candlestick pattern we have rejected from that resistance from that $79,000 magical number resistance.

Well and in the last video, ladies and gentlemen, what we have expected is that we will with with the highest probability push towards this support zone, right, which is marked by two important Fibonacci retracement levels, well and then we will start pushing to the upside again, right.

So let's see what happened on the one hour time frame, we can see that indeed we have pushed towards our support zone right here, upper boundary was nicely touched at at $75,500. Now we are moving up and we are already testing the first important resistance from the previous video that I've shared with you right here at that $76,700.

The one-hour candle is closing in 36 minutes. Let's take a look and analyze if we can push towards that resistance, 78,000 dollars. The title belief is going to be the important resistance on the one hour time frame and from the price action development perspective that's going to be the secondary wave, right?

Where if we get enough confirmations we will probably open with ParadiseFamilyVIP's swing plus short position, I'm a swing plus trader and we will be looking into pushing below the previous local low, which was created at $74,900. So let's take a look at it, ladies and gentlemen.

The situation right now, as you know from the intro, is that the whales for the past 2-3 hours, they were selling, right? $9 million. It was one hand, because right here I can see that it was on on the HTX exchange, so some Asian, and then also afterwards, just one hour ago, a big whale that we are tracking, that we have named Deepwater for, sold $104 million worth of Bitcoin.

All of this is a spot, ladies and gentlemen, okay? This is a spot, this is the real money, ladies and gentlemen. So why am I still bearish on the daily time frame? Well, because I understand that the big whales that are working with a lot of money on the spot exchange, they are distributing extremely heavily, right?

So on the cumulative volume delta, it's also visible, on the cumulative volume deltas, on the spot exchange, it's visible that this push on the forward time frame from that $82,000 ladies and gentlemen, this is not borrowed money, this is not shorting, alright, that created this crash from $82,000 towards $74,000, alright, this is distribution on the spot exchange, that means the smart money are distributing their Bitcoin.

As you can see, it went to the level from where we have previously started the push from around that $64,000 towards that $82,000. As you can see, without the price action moving back to that level where the accumulation started, right? Well, it's already started right here, but from that baseline watermark zero, as you can see, the cumulative volume delta is already back at that level and the price action has not moved

to that level. That suggests distribution that is being funding rates, the longs are crowded, we are having positive funding rates, the long squeeze probability is at this moment 31%, which is in this current market cycle quite substantial. So who is actually absorbing that selling pressure?

Not the smart money, but the retail, the borrowed money, the leverage, which is suggesting that aka the smart money are using that buying liquidity from retail in order for them to be able to dump their backs without moving the price that much, right?

So at this moment what we can actually see on the net long and net short positions is that on the lower time frames something similar has happened, right? so the whale have been selling right and it was absorbed with long positions so long positions are right now crowded which is basically improving that bias that after we hit my important resistance at $78,000 we will have the path of least resistance to the

downside again so it's decreasing And the probability, because we understand what's going on behind the scenes, that we will be able to reclaim this resistance and push above the previous local high at $79,500. And there is much higher probability that this resistance will work, as a proper resistance should work, and we will push to the outside, where that's going to be the path of least resistance, okay?

because of the domino effect we understand that if longs are being crowded then it's very easy for the whales just to push towards some important level, it triggers the liquidation, the long position gets sold and that immediately pushes the price a little bit lower, triggers the next liquidation level and we create this kind of liquidation event.

That is why watching the funding creates is very important and that is why on our website MyCryptoParadise.com, we have prepared for you these funding rates where we are also calculating the probability of a long squeeze or short squeeze for free so you can use it for your own good.

So at the same time we understand that the whales are distributing on the hard time frames, that is why on the weaker time frame, I'm still bearish ladies and gentlemen, as you know since 1 in 21 thousand dollars we do expect that Bitcoin will push towards 44 thousand I have not changed my bias since then on the weaker timeframe I still believe that there is a higher probability of pushing towards the

exchange of the hand zone 55 to 44 thousand dollars that this probability of pushing there is much higher than that we will create new old time high at 169 thousand dollars first yeah so first I do believe we need to go lower before we go higher from the price action development perspective it supports our bias We have not yet completed the final 5th wave of that 5 moves that we are expecting

from that 1 or 21 thousand dollars. And with the highest probability the 5th wave is being created inside of this pattern that we call ending diagonal that you can learn about on our website MyCryptoParadise.com as well. But if you are watching these videos, you know exactly what I'm talking about, how important the ending diagonal is, right?

And what kind of structure it has. So it has five sub waves. So far we have created already two. And there's a high probability that right now we will create a third one that will push us below the previous low, 58,000 dollars. The fourth one and the final fifth wave might push us towards that 44,000 dollars.

It's a very high probability. That's also why, with ParadiseFamilyVIP, if we will push towards the zone, I will be treating that as aggressive re-accumulation territory and we will re-accumulate back the bags that we have sold with ParadiseFamilyVIP at around $109,000 and around $121,000, yeah, so if we will get enough confirmations, I will be re-accumulating aggressively my Bitcoin back here and if you're or in-person VIP, you will know about that first hand.

Let's right now zoom in into the price section of this secondary wave on the daily timeframe. We know that with the highest probability we have completed the pattern that we called expanded flat, where the sea wave subdivides itself into five smaller waves as well.

And the final fifth wave, we have understood that given that during the price section development of the 4th wave, we have already touched an important level 82.000, we have understood that with us probability that the 5th wave is going to be truncated one, right?

So we will talk about that truncation once we zoom in into 4 hour time frame, but before that let me tell you, ladies and gentlemen, there is nothing bullish on the daily time frame, so still I am bearish on the daily time frame as well, so I do believe that there price, much higher probability of pushing below the previous low, $58,000, then breaking above the previous high, $82,000 and reclaiming this resistance,

$82,400 to $84,200, yeah, that's this resistance zone from the daily time frame perspective, at this moment it seems like much lower probability of reclaiming this than pushing lower, yeah, so we understand here the The whales are already distributing, we understand what's happening behind the scenes, and that's increasing the probability that we all push lower, because the path of least resistances right now that are downside from the daily time from perspective, not

to the upside, okay? Momentum is nicely confirming that, we can see a bearish divergence, higher high on the price section, lower high on the MACD histogram, we have got a bearish cross and also reclaim coming from the downside, so cross, retest and now both legs are continuing looking to the downside, that's a strong bearish sign and it tells us that the bears are in control and until we see some changes in

the momentum, bears will stay in control on the daily timeframe. RSI is supporting that bias as well, we are below the moving average RSI trend line going from an overbought area. Stochastic RSI is in an oversold area but that's not bullish, right? We understand that for some bullish confirmation we need to see both flags starting to look to the upside and in this zone, as we can see right here, the bulls

will have a hard time to create momentum until breaking some important resistance level and since we understand that from the lower time frame as well, there are these kind of mechanics that where the path of least resistance is to the downside, it's going to be really hard for the bears at this moment on the daily time frame to create some momentum and push above the previous high, local high on that $82,000

and that is why the probabilities are still suggesting that on the daily time frame we will go much lower. So I'm still bearish on the daily timeframe, ladies and gentlemen, double shooting star candlesticks right here and right here, as you can see, we are perfectly defending that 79,000 dollars magical number.

Let's take a look right now at this price action development. Let's zoom in into for our timeframe. So with the highest property as we have already broke down in the previous video, the fifth wave is finished. and right now we are creating the next zigzag, right, ABC, where the A wave is a motive wave structure, that means it subdivides itself into 5 small waves, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and the first

wave of that 5 is also a motive wave structure. So there is a high probability that we are already starting the first wave, that we have completed the first wave right here, and right now we are doing the secondary wave, okay? internet, if this is going to be the corrective mode wave structure, which I believe is regular flat, if there's going to be a confirmation of that corrective mode wave pattern, that

means, alright, bulls are already controlling the price action, they are weak, the bulls are weak on the upside, they are creating corrective wave patterns, that means there is a very high probability that the next big move is going to be traded outside again, and upon a lot of confirmations, more confirmations, there for me at least there will be a nice opportunity to create a nice short trade.

Probably if we get up to that $78,000 that will be nicely confluenced with a great resistance and as a professional trader I do care about not only high probability trade setups but also the kind of trade setups where I can have as good as possible risk, reward, alright?

So what's the reason of that? It's that even though I have a high probability of winning, I can still lose money, right? So even a great setup can lose money. Even though I have 80% on incorrect in my trading decision, I can still lose money, ladies and gentlemen.

So that is why I want to be creating such trades that I have much less probability of losing, but I understand I can lose and if I lose, I want to have this column set up where I will lose as little money as possible, okay?

And on the other hand, when I'm correct, I want to maximise my profits as much as possible. So then, if I can confluence high risk-reward trades with high probability trades, right? I will be winning more often and also when I win, I win much more than I will lose, right?

and then during winning streaks I will make much more profits than what I lose during losing streaks and that's how we have built our strategy, that's how we have built our trading tactics and that's why I focus on the process not on the outcome, okay?

So even a bad trade can win you money, okay? Even a bad process trade can win you money. and if you go to the casino and you have a very low probability of winning in roulette on a number, you can still win. Does it mean that you should be going to the casino every day and bet on some number?

No. Because if you will keep doing this, you will lose all of your money. It's very simple to understand in casino perspective, but in trading, for some reason, people are happily trading without any strategy, without any plan. They are lucky, they make a lot of money and they believe they can keep doing it and they can keep being profitable in the long run.

Well, watch them for three years. Most of those people lose everything. They can be profitable for a few months, even for like one, two years, but three years is the magical cycle, right? The big cycle where a lot of smaller cycles happens and the luck doesn't survive.

Even the luckiest person in the world, if he is day trading, that means that he is monitoring the market on a daily basis, he doesn't need to make trade-in decisions like trade-in setups every day, but he is monitoring the market every day, he will lose money because he doesn't have proper strategy.

So luck can stick with you for some time, right, but not for so long to make you long-term profitable. For long-term profitability, you really need to have a great system, high probability trade and great risk reward. So at this moment there is a high probability that we are pushing to the upside, creating the secondary wave, right, as we have been expecting.

So this is one, two, corrective mode wave patterns, right, ABC, ABC and right now with DAIS probability we are creating the C-wave, motive wave structure which is an impulse. So five sub waves, right now we are pushing the final fifth wave. if there is going to be an extension we might push towards that resistance, if it's gonna fall short, probably we will stop at $77,400, yeah, because that's important, 0.618 Fibonacci retracement

level, if we take a look at this sequence right here, we can see that we can actually confluence to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, aka the golden ratios, quite close to each other. All right, so I can actually create a zone right here. So another important resistance zone is at $77,500 to $77,769, ladies and gentlemen.

So this is one important resistance zone from the One Hour Time frame perspective where we might already finish the secondary wave. all right and the next one the last one all right right here at $78,300 to $78,900 all right that will be the last target for that secondary wave if we will reclaim this resistance i will start looking to trade with bullish trading tactics until then i'm treating the one hour time

frame as a bear. Basically, I'm focusing on bearish trading tactics. So, bearish trading tactics, bullish trading tactics, you need to know what to focus on, right? And then you need to be patiently waiting to execute like a sniper, just clear shots. Don't be a random shooter, right?

Don't be emotional in entrant positions. Don't feel this fear of missing out. Don't feel greedy that you want to make more money than you are making because all of this will make you emotional and it will destroy your strategy so it's really also once you have a strategy you need to follow it with discipline focus discipline and patience right because having strategy is great but then you need to follow it you

need to follow the process in a good times and in a bad times as well so it's about not being consistent in making profits every week because everybody wants that but it's not possible the market is random you don't know when you get an opportunity what you need to be consistent is in following your trading system all right and we are again at don't focus on the outcome focus on the process

a lot of people focus in like on the kind of things they want in the life and then i will start enjoying my life so when i get this house or when i get I will get this girl, then I will be happy.

Those people will never be happy. Focus on the process of how you are going to get the house. Because then when you get the house you will not be happy anyway. But if you will be happy during the process of getting the house then having the house first of all that will be just the side product of your great trade process and you will not be happy just because you have got

something material but because the journey, because of the process you are getting to it, right? So it's important in trading and in real life if you want to have a great life to focus on the process not the outcome because the outcome we don't have in our power, right?

Like I don't know what's going to happen in trade. I can open a trade, it's a high probability trade and it can still lose money even though the trade comes with 90% probability of winning. I can't basically involve that. So what I can however control is the process that I'm opening and closing the trades with.

So focus on the things that you have control over, don't focus and don't stress about things that you don't have a control about, that you cannot control. Because that's just gonna make you emotionally stock and it will slow you down in your progress of becoming a professional trader and in your progress in life as well.

So ladies and gentlemen, right now the highest probability thing is that we are creating the secondary wave, it might stop right here or right here with the highest probability and then we will start pushing that it outside, okay? So from here or from this zone.

I will keep you updated, definitely this is just right now what I'm seeing in the market something else can happen for sure, alright? This is just the highest probability trade idea I see at this moment on the market, okay? So, ladies and gentlemen, stay safe, trade with a professional trading strategy, focus on risk first, trade second and I will see you again on Saturday.

Cheers! now, clean setup, clean click, execute like a pro, that's it, clean setup, clean