Bitcoin Retests $82K Resistance: Simon’s Breakdown

Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.

Bitcoin is pushing for a second time into a major daily resistance while sentiment is [music] sliding into extreme greed. So, are we about to break higher or get rejected? [music] Let's analyze the probabilities. [music] Hello ladies and gentlemen, this is Simon from Market Paradise.

Welcome back. It's great to hear. Today is a Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. So, Bitcoin on the daily time frame is pushing into our major resistance for a second time while the sentiment is getting into an extreme greed zone.

As you can see on our free and greed index, we are pushing into that number 80 which suggest that people right now are feeling extremely greedy. Let's discuss what's bullish about this move that took us from $76,000 towards around $82,000. And what is still bearish about overall market structure.

So first of all, what is actually quite bullish about this move is that we have pushed to the upside and we have defended this support zone while the support zone the market makers were pushing to important bearish news. So first bearish news was the clarity act that the clarity act was declined and it was posted on 16th of September and as you can see bearish news lack of reaction from the market.

It shows us that the market is actually quite strong. The second bearish news was that the Federal Reserves just raised interest rates for the first time since July 2023. It's a bearish news because borrowing money is much more expensive. So you would naturally assume that some institutions that are having some investments in crypto rather than borrowing money they will liquidate their assets and that naturally logically will put pressure on the crypto

market. Nothing like that. We have seen no reaction, no bearish reaction on this bearish news from the price action and instead we have pushed to the upside again which suggest that this move is actually quite strong and the market is getting stronger and more bullish as well.

So this is actually what's bullish about this move. Together with that we have not seen that much of a leverage. All right. On this move, we can see nice volume above the moving average volume trend line which exceeded the previous bearish candle. And that's bullish.

We can see that it was actually not supported that much by leverage. All right? Because in the first phase of this push to the upside, the open interest was declining. All right? And the open interest started to rise only in the final stage of this push to the upside.

All right? What actually created the beginning of this move to the upside was the cumulative volume delta that spot money. As you can see um me myself I have not been extremely careful about this but there was visible the divergence all right between the price action and the cumulative volume delta on only spot.

So you can see that the price action created lower low but the cumulative volume delta created higher low that suggested that not as much spot money was actually distributing. So it was actually driven by leverage and this was a warning sign that didn't actually exceeded the bearish signs that we have been getting from the overall perspective given that from the macro perspective from the hard degree perspective we can see that most

of the money is already out right from the spot spot perspective. So the smart money are the spot money that's not the borrowed money. So we should be following what the spot money is actually doing and we have seen that during this price action to the downside stopping right here once we have got back to the baseline zero on the [ __ ] volume delta they have actually distributed most of their

bitcoins that previously they were accumulating right here before the price jumped to the upside. But this right here this divergence that was supposed to be a big warning sign. Okay, that was supposed to be a big big warning sign for this short-term price action development.

And as you can see, it was actually pushed mainly by spot volume. So that's what's make this move actually quite bullish. All right. So from the short-term time frame perspective, this is quite bullish and it's suggesting that the market might be strong enough to push even above this resistance zone.

All right. But from the higher degree perspective, it's still bearish. It's still bearish. Like overall, we can see that most of the money didn't get back in. As you can see, it stopped right here at around 18. All right. And it dropped all the way back to zero.

And right now, we are back at 7.9. So, not all of the spot volume went back into the market, but around half of it did. All right. went back into into Bitcoin. So that's actually bullish. But would I change because of this? My overall bearish bias on the weekly time frame, as you know, since $121,000, we do expect that the macro bottom is going to be created at $44,000.

Right? Since $121,000 on the weekly time frame, I'm bearish. And I have not changed my bias since. All right. So for a very long time I'm bearish ladies and gentlemen for a very long time I already got bearish right here back in 2025.

Okay. So this was just a corrective mood wave to the upside and we understand that we are creating this expanded flat formation where there is a very high probability that the final Cwave did [snorts] not create it its fifth wave just yet. However, if we will start reclaiming the previous fourth wave, the overall structure might be completely different.

But do I believe that the macro bottom has been created and we can start pushing towards the new alltime high $169,000? Well, even though if we will reclaim this resistance, obviously I will start to look for some important next resistance, for example, the one at $11,000.

But I will still be very I will be taking a distance from saying that macro bottom is in and we can push towards $169,000 because the important stuff that we are watching since 2011 that always created the macro bottoms has not happened just yet.

All right. So as you can see since 2011 on the net unrealized profit and loss we needed to see a proper capitulation. All right. Absorption of that selling pressure by the smart money and that's what created the macro bottoms every single time since 2011.

So as you can see every single time we have seen a big capitulation the losses that the big institutions like Micro Strategy and others Bitcoin mining companies and the Wales are holding right now. They are holding a lot of bitcoins in a loss every single time in a bare market.

They have been forced to sell in a loss. That's what the nupal for net annualized profit and loss. And when we go below the level zero the capitulation and we spend some time there. And on the other side we can see that the smart money are using their buying power on spot to absorb that selling pressure.

That's what creates the macro bottom every single time as you can see since 2011 right here, right here, and last time in 2022. But take a look at the bare market we have right now. Okay, since that $121,000, did we went below the zero capitulation level?

Well, we have almost hit that, but we didn't went below. And from the smart money we can see that most of the smart money are still holding mostly USDT. So this would be a first time since 2011 that we would create a macro bottom without going through this capitulation phase.

All right, which you can assume is very low probability. Right? Definitely as a professional traders we need to understand that we are working just with probabilities right and there is nothing certain in the markets. So it can happen that we will not go through the capitulation phase and the exchange of the hands phase but it's a low probability right now given that we understand what happened in the past and that we

also understand what's needed for the market to be able to push as high as above the previous high that was created at around $125,000. Right? somebody will need to keep on buying to break above the previous high and break through these resistances, right?

And if right now like those people that are holding their losses, all right, they're holding their Bitcoin in a loss, they have not capitulated just yet. So, we can assume that there will be much less buying power than breaking above the resistances. You know what I mean, right?

Like when there is nobody selling, who is going to be buying right there, right? If people already bought, who is going to be buying right there? Well, we would need to push more institutions into buying Bitcoin, etc. But that would require a lot of marketing and stuff like that.

Like definitely we will push more institutions on the way towards the new alltime high 169,000. But substantial amount of that pressure that will help us to break above these resistances is always created by the people that first of all miss the bottom right and then they are buying in a fear of missing out and then also the ones that have been forced to sell right and then when the global market economy

situation gets better right they will have again money and they will be able to buy Bitcoin but higher already it's always like this if you understand the cycles the market cycles. You understand that's always like this, right? The people that miss the bottom will be the ones that they will help us to push through the resistances, right?

So, it's right now very low probability. Doesn't mean that we cannot go to the next resistance if we will reclaim the previous high $82,000. All right? But still, I will be very careful about calling this a macro bottom because the important stuff didn't happen yet.

So that's about the weekly time frame. I'm still bearish on the weekly time frame. On the daily time frame, I'm still bearish as well until we can reclaim the resistance zone. Similar one that we have on the weekly, right, the daily resistance zone for me is at $82,000.

That's the lower boundary and upper boundary at $84,000. I'm getting a little bit more cautious right now given that we have really pushed nice scandal right here. There's some real buying pressure. Market shown strength against bearish news. Market shown strength on defending this support zone.

So yeah, but I'm not changing my bias on the daily time frame just yet. Even though I'm being a little bit more careful right now. So we can see that we are still in a bearish crossing. We are still playing with the bearish divergence, right?

Because here was one uptick in a histogram. So you can actually assume that this was a bearish divergence that was playing out until the bulls defended that $75,000 right here. And right now the bearish momentum is kind of declining. So right here on the RSI we can see a potential bullish cross but you know for a confirmation not to be caught in some fake outs.

For me at least in my trading tactics I always try to wait for a proper reclaim. All right that will tell me when I'm changing some important bias from bearish to bullish. All right I want to have as much confirmations as possible. So in order for me to turn bullish, I would need to see this RSI line retesting the moving average RSI trend line right here.

So basically that would change it that would change it from resistance into a support and then I want to see one uptick higher and that look into the upside and that will tell me there's a possible continuation. Okay. But right now like we can see there is some bearish divergence already forming on the RSI.

This was the previous high right right here. Or we can take this one right here. And currently the price action is already creating equal highs but the momentum is lacking. The bullish momentum is lacking. So this candle is nice but if I will not see the follow through all right through this resistance which will be difficult at this time right now I'm not going to turn bullish okay stoastic RSI already looking

to the upside which is created by this nice bullish candle but I'm still waiting for more confirmations to turn bullish on the daily time frame. So on the daily time frame I'm still holding my bearish bias. As you can see, I have changed the wave count a little bit.

This is first wave, secondary wave, third wave that stays. But there's a high probability that we have been creating ABC expanded flat that finished right here. And right now we are finishing the final fifth wave. All right. 1 2 3 and right now we might be doing fourth.

The final fifth wave might take us into this resistance zone $82,000 to $84,000 because we can see that above us there is this liquidation cluster. All right, if we will push towards that $83,400, we will liquidate around $216 billion worth of short positions.

All right, but take a look afterwards on that imbalance once we hit this level. All right, which is possible for the final creation of the fifth wave of that fifth. All right, so pushing into into this resistance zone and then pushing in the opposite direction like this.

This is very high probability of upcoming price action because afterwards we can see if you look further there's not much other short positions, right? But if you take a look in the opposite direction, there is a lot of long positions right now waiting to be liquidated.

Longs are extremely crowded right now. And if we will push towards $67,000, we will equate over $9.5 billion worth of long positions. So take a look at this imbalance, right? Market makers and whales see it. All right, this is a huge imbalance. The path of least resistance given that we understand the domino effect is to the downside right now.

The domino effect means that once the market makers will be able to push to the price action to some level, it will trigger a liquidation level that will push the price further to the downside. That will trigger another liquidation level. And when you basically close a long position, you need to open a short, right?

That's what pushes it to the next important liquidation level. And that's creating the domino effect. And the path of least resistance is right now to the downside, not to the upside. Right? As long as we hold this resistance, the path of least resistance is to the downside.

And right now the probabilities doesn't show us that pushing through this resistance will be easy. Definitely it's still possible even though it's a low probability right now that the same way there was incoming volume random incoming volume from spot right here all right on this candle we can push through this resistance right but it's a low probability right now and that's all we care about as a professional traders high probability moments

and only on that going aggressive let's take a look right now on the 4hour time frame so here you can see I have updated the fourth wave that finished with the highest probability right here and we have created the A B and then final C wave right here and right now we might be actually creating the final fifth wave 1 2 3 right now we might be creating the fourth wave all

right which is usually the alternation of the secondary wave so one two this was very short and deep the alternative would be shallow and long right so we might be creating a fourth wave and then the final fifth wave might push us all right towards that $83,000 let's say $600 to liquidate that cluster.

Usually the fifth wave equals the first wave and as you can see the first wave is kind of small. It's kind of small. So if this third wave is not going to be an extended one, we should liquidate that $83,000 and then reverse back in the opposite direction.

All right, confirmations will be needed definitely, but on the 4hour time frame for me personally, I'm not turning into some bullish trading tactics as well. All right, some of the traders from my team might be having a different opinion, but this is my opinion right now.

I will be playing with bullish trading tactics only if I get proper confirmations. Let's take a look, however, what's also bullish at this moment. what we are not seeing actually and we are not seeing the kind of um divergence between what the whales are doing versus what the crowd is doing.

All right. So even though the funding crates are right now very positive the longs are being crowded 95% of market is having positive funding crates we are revisiting the level plus 10% where from where we have always seen a squeeze to the outside in the past year we can see the funding crates are really positive right now longs are being crowded so longs are being vulnerable but at the same time we

can see that the retail is greedy in the long positions but we can see that the whales are actually supporting that. Okay, so there is no divergence just yet. We can see in the past 24 hours whales have been mostly buying. 64% of whales have been buying versus 36% of whales selling.

Okay. The other uh coin of love of whales have been Zcash. Zcash. And what's also bullish is the altcoin. Speaking of altcoins, let's take a look at the Bitcoin dominance. So the altcoin market, if we take a look at the Bitcoin dominance with the price action to the upside, that's also what's make this this candle this bullish candle right here quite really like real buying pressure, new money inflow and very bullish

because the Bitcoin dominance went down. All right. So the price action of Bitcoin went up and Bitcoin dominance went down which suggest a new money inflow. So that's also why it was so random, right? Because we are watching the market participants that are right now in the market, right?

And with the highest probability, we can assume what they are going to be doing. But then if new money inflow flows into the market that that creates a random moment where it pushed us very smoothly through the low time frame resistances right on the 1 hour time frame you can see that we've pushed through the resistances right here.

this one and even this one like knife through a butter towards the next important resistance $81,000 which is right now being turned into a support ladies and gentlemen on that possible fourth wave. So that's bullish and it suggests that new money inflowed in the market because Bitcoin price went up but Bitcoin dominance went down.

So actually new money flow into bitcoin and then from bitcoin it was sent also into altcoins without defecting the bitcoin price. So a lot of new money flowed into the market which makes this right here this candle really quite bullish. All right but still the market structure is king and I don't have enough confirmations to call just yet that we will be able to reclaim this resistance.

All right, from my perspective and neither that because of this I would call this a macro bottom. So on the weekly time frame I'm still bearish. All right, on the weekly time frame I'm still bearish. I still expect that we will push towards this zone before creating a new alltime high.

And on the daily time frame, I'm still bearish as well. There's much higher probability of doing this kind of movement. All right, this kind of price action rather than reclaiming the resistance zone and that's it. So if we will reclaim it, okay, I will understand this is really smart whales buying.

We might continue towards the next important resistance on the daily time frame. For example, the $96,000 that's going to be the next important resistance if you will reclaim this resistance zone at $82,000. But even though if we will reclaim this resistance zone on the on the daily time frame, I will turn slightly bullish on the daily time frame, but I will still not be bullish on the weekly time frame and call

in this macro bottom. All right, because of the things that I showed you in the beginning of the video. So yes, a little bit more bullish right now thanks to this bullish candle on the lower time frames, but still keeping the same bias on the weekly and daily time frame.

So it's right now about your trading strategy, ladies and gentlemen. How you will approach the market situation with Paradise and VIPs. We have our own trading tactics, our own trading strategies. We have a structure as a hedge fund. We are having many traders in our paradise team and we are growing all the time.

We are working extremely hard. We are never taking breaks. We are working even on weekends. All right? We never take days off because we maintain a healthy lifestyle that gives us energy and we do this with love because we love to analyze this market and every trader I talk to before we hire him into the Paris team and we hire only like 1% from all of the participants that are trying to

get to to our team. I always have a lot of conversations multiple of them with them and I always want to make sure that they love what they do. You need to have the love for the market. You need to have the love for the process.

All right? Because if you will be focusing just on the outcome, it's like this kind of early businessman that is in the business just to make money, right? But then if you are having the mindset like Jeff Bezos or Alon Musk that you are in it to make a great product or Steve Jobs, right?

That you are in it to make a great product and you want other people to benefit thanks to your skills. the money will actually come as a side product of your process. Right? So that's also what makes a long-term profitable trader a long-term successful trader.

He's not focusing on the short-term gain. He's not trying to get rich quick. He's focusing on the process for the love of the game and the profits will come as a side product of a successful process of creating only high probability trades with great riskreward.

All right? and focusing on making more money during the winning streaks and losing less money during the losing streak. So it's not about when you are wrong or when you are correct, but it's about how much money you lose when you are wrong and how much money you win when you are right.

Right? You want to lose small when you are wrong and you want to win big when you are correct. So that's the whole key of long-term successful trader. So in Paris VIP we have our own trading strategies, our own trading tactics, you need to develop your own.

If you are not in Paris VIP, the one that has a strict rules, a systematic plan and you need to follow it with discipline during the good times and during the bad times as well. So you need to make sure that you have an edge and then follow it with discipline, patience and emotional discipline because the market is going to test you, right?

and really trying to realize who you are in the market. That's a very expensive place to realize who you are. So if you don't know who you are, market is really expensive place to find out and it's going to expose all of your bad trades.

Trust me, because it's emotionally draining. So you need to be ready for that. That's why healthy lifestyle is a must for a successful trader. And you also need to be confident in your in your process. So ladies and gentlemen, I will see you again on Tuesday.

Trade safe, trade with a professional trading strategy and enjoy the rest of your weekend. Cheers. [music] Calm breath, clear eyes, work done now, no rush, no drag, right time, full snap. Clean set up, [music] clean. Execute like a pro. That's it. M [music] clean set