Bitcoin Retests $82K Resistance: Simon’s Breakdown

Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.

Bitcoin is pushing for a second time into a major daily resistance, while sentiment is sliding into extreme greed, so are we about to break higher or get rejected? Let's analyze the probabilities. Hello ladies and gentlemen, this is Simon from MyCryptoParadise. Welcome back, it's great to be here.

Today is a Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. this week. So Bitcoin on the daily timeframe is pushing into our major resistance for a second time while the sentiment is getting into an extreme greed zone. As you can see on our free and greed index, we are pushing into that number 80, which suggests that people right now are feeling extremely greedy.

Let's discuss what's bullish about this move that took us from $76,000 to around $82,000 and what is still bearish about overall market structure. So first of all, what is actually quite bullish about this move is that we have pushed to today upside and we have defended this support zone while the support zone, the market makers were pushing to important bearish news.

So first bearish news was the Clarity Act, that the Clarity Act was declined and it was posted on 16th of September and as you can see bearish news, lack of reaction from the market, it shows us that the market is actually quite strong.

The second bearish news was that the Federal Reserve just raised interest rates for the first time since July 2023. It's bearish news because borrowing money is much more expensive, so you would naturally assume that some institutions that are having some investments in crypto, rather than borrowing money, they will liquidate their assets and that naturally, logically, will put pressure on the crypto market.

like that we have seen no reaction, no bearish reaction on this bearish news from the price section and instead we have pushed it upside again which suggests that this move is actually quite strong and the market is getting stronger and more bullish as well.

So this is actually what's bullish about this move together with that we have not seen that much of a leverage alright on this move we can see nice volume above the moving average average volume trend line which exceeded the previous bearish candle and that's bullish.

We can see that it was actually not supported that much by leverage, alright, because in the first phase of this push to the upside, the open interest was declining, alright, and the open interest started to rise only in the final stage of this push to the upside, alright.

what actually created the beginning of this move that I've seen was the cumulative volume delta, that spot money. As you can see, me myself, I have not been extremely careful about this but there was visible the divergence between the price action and the cumulative volume delta only spot.

So you can see that the price action created lower low but the cumulative volume delta created higher low. that suggested that not as much spot money was actually distributed, so it was actually driven by leverage and this was a warning sign that didn't actually exceeded the bearish signs that we have been getting from the overall perspective, given that from the macro perspective, from the hard degree perspective, we can see that most

of the money is already out, right? from the spot perspective. So the smart money are the spot money, that's not the borrowed money, so we should be following what the spot money is actually doing. And we have seen that during this price section 3 downside, stopping right here, once we have got back to the baseline 0 on the Qnoti volume delta, they have actually distributed most of their Bitcoins that previously they

were accumulating right here before the price jumped to the upside. but this, right here, this divergence, that was supposed to be a big warning sign, okay? That was supposed to be a big warning sign for this short-term price action development. And as you can see, it was actually pushed mainly by spot volume.

So that's what makes this move actually quite bullish, all right? So from the short-term time frame perspective, this is quite bullish and it's suggesting that the market might be strong enough to push even above this resistance zone, all right? But from the higher degree perspective, it's still bearish.

It's still bearish. Like overall, we can see that most of the money didn't get back in. As you can see, it stopped right here at around 18, all right? And it dropped all the way back to zero. And right now we are back at 7.9.

so not all of the spot volume went back into the market but around half of it did, alright, went back into Bitcoin so that's actually bullish but would I change because of this my overall bearish bias on the weekly time frame as you know since 121,000 dollars we do expect that the macro bottom is going to be created at 44,000 dollars right since 121,000 dollars on on the weekly timeframe, I'm bearish

and I have not changed my bias since, alright, so for a very long time, I'm bearish, ladies and gentlemen, for a very long time, I already got bearish right here back in 2025, okay, so this was just a corrective mode wave to the upside and we understand that we are creating this expanded flat formation where there is This is a very high probability that the final Seawave did not create it its

fifth wave just yet. However, if we will start reclaiming the previous fourth wave, the overall structure might be completely different. But do I believe that the macro bottom has been created and we can start pushing towards the new all-time high $169,000? Well, even though if we will reclaim this resistance, obviously I will start to look for some important next resistance, for example the one at $101,000, but I will still be very,

I will be taking a distance from saying that macro bottom is in and we can push towards $169,000 because the important stuff that we are watching since 2011 that always created the macro bottoms has has not happened just yet, alright? So as you can see, since 2011, on the net underlies profit and loss, we needed to see a proper capitulation, alright?

Absorption of that selling pressure by the smart money and that's what created the macro bottoms every single time since 2011. So as you can see, every single time we have seen a big capitulation, the losses that the big institutions like Microstrategy and others, Bitcoin mining companies and the whales are holding right now, they are holding a lot of Bitcoins in a loss, every single time in a bear market, they have been

forced to sell in a loss, that's what the neutral for, net analyze profit and loss and when we go below the level zero the capitulation and we spend some time there and on the other side we can see that the smart money are using their buying power on spot to absorb that selling pressure that's what creates the macro bottom every single time as you can see since 2011 right here right here

and last time in 2022 but take a look at the bear market we have right now, okay, since that $121,000. Did we went below the zero capitulation level? Well, we have almost hit that, but we didn't went below. And from the smart money, we can see that most of the smart money are still holding mostly USDT.

So this would be a first time since 2011 that we would create a macro bottom without going through this capitulation phase, all right, which you can assume is very low probability, right. Definitely as a provisioning traders we need to understand that we are working just with probabilities, right, and there is nothing certain in the markets so it can happen that we will not go through the capitulation phase and the exchange of

the hands phase but it's a low probability right now given that we understand what happened in the past and that we also understand what's needed for the market to be able to push as high as above the previous high that was created at around 125 000 dollars right somebody will need to keep on buying to break above the previous high and break through these resistances right and if right now like those

people that are holding their losses all right they're holding their Bitcoin in a loss they have not capitulated just yet so we can assume that there will be much less buying power than breaking above the resistances you know what I mean right like when there is nobody selling who is going to be buying right there right if people already bought who is going to be buying right there well we would need

to push more institutions into buying bitcoin etc but that would require a lot of marketing and stuff like that like definitely we will push more more institutions on the way towards the new all-time high, $169,000, but substantial amount of that pressure that will help us to break above these resistances is always created by the people that, first of all, miss the bottom, right, and then they are buying in a fear of

missing out, and then also the ones that have been forced to sell, right, and then when When the global market economy situation gets better, they will have again money and they will be able to buy Bitcoin but higher already. It's always like this.

If you understand the cycles, the market cycles, you understand that's always like this. The people that miss the bottom will be the ones that they will help us to push through the resistances. So it's right now very low probability, doesn't mean that we cannot go to the next resistance if you will reclaim the previous high, $82,000, all right?

But still, I will be very careful about calling this a macro bottom because the important stuff didn't happen yet. So that's about the weekly timeframe. I'm still bearish on the weekly timeframe. On the daily timeframe, I'm still bearish as well until we can reclaim the resistance zone, similar one that we have on the weekly, right?

the daily resistance zone for me is at $82,000, that's the lower boundary and upper boundary at $84,000. I'm getting a little bit more cautious right now given that we have really pushed nice candle right here, there's some real buying pressure, markets shown strength against Barish News, markets shown strength on defending this support zone.

So yeah, but I'm not changing my bias on the daily timeframe just yet, even though I'm being a little bit more careful right now. So we can see that we are still in a bearish crossing, we are still playing with the bearish divergence, right?

Because here was one uptick in a histogram, so you can actually assume that this was a bearish divergence that was playing out until the bulls defended that $75,000 right here. and right now the bearish momentum is kind of declining. So right here on the RSI, we can see a potential bullish cross, but you know, for a confirmation not to be caught in some fakeouts, for me at least, in my trading tactics,

I always try to wait for a proper reclaim, alright, that will tell me when I'm changing some important bias from bearish to bullish, alright, I want to have as much confirmations as possible. So in order for me to turn bullish, I would need to see this RSI line retesting the moving average RSI trend line right here.

So basically that would change it, that would change it from resistance into a support. And then I want to see one uptick higher and that look into the upside and that will tell me there is a possible continuation, okay? but right now, like, we can see there is some bearish divergence already forming on the RSI.

This was the previous high, right, right here, or we can take this one right here, and currently the price action is already creating equal highs, but the momentum is lacking, the bullish momentum is lacking. So this candle is nice, but if I will not see the follow through, alright, through this resistance which will be difficult right now.

I'm not gonna turn bullish. Stochastic RSI already looking to the upside which is created by this nice bullish candle but I'm still waiting for more confirmations to turn bullish on the daily timeframe. So on the daily timeframe I'm still holding my bearish bias.

As you can see I have changed the wave count a little bit. This this is 1st wave, 2nd wave, 3rd wave, that stays but there is a high probability that we have been creating ABC expanded flat that finished right here and right now we are finishing the final 5th wave, alright, 1, 2, 3 and right now we might be doing 4th, the final 5th wave might take us into this resistance zone

$82,000 to $84,000 because we can see that above us there is this liquidation cluster. If we will push towards that $83,400, we will liquidate around $2.16 billion worth of short positions. But take a look afterwards on that imbalance. Once we hit this level, which is possible for the final creation of the fifth wave of that fifth, so pushing into this resistance zone and then pushing in the opposite direction like this, this

is very high probability of upcoming price action because afterwards we can see if you look further there's not much other short positions right but if you take a look in the opposite direction there is a lot of long positions right now waiting to be liquidated.

Longs are extremely crowded right now. And if we will push towards $67,000, we will equate over $9.5 billion worth of long positions. So take a look at this imbalance, right? Market makers and whales see it, all right? This is a huge imbalance. The path of least resistance, given that we understand the domino effect, is still outside right now.

The domino effect means that once the market makers will be will be able to push to the price section to some level, it will trigger a liquidation level that will push the price further to the downside, that will trigger another liquidation level and when you basically close a long position, you need to open a short, that's what pushes it to the next important liquidation level and that's creating the domino effect and

the path of least resistance is right now to the downside, not to the upside. As long as we We hold this resistance, the path of least resistance, is to the outside, and right now the probabilities doesn't show us that pushing through this resistance will be easy.

Definitely, it's still possible, even though it's a low probability right now, that the same way there was income in volume, random income in volume from spot, right here, alright, on this candle, we can push through this resistance, right, but it's a low probability right now, that's all we care about as a professional trader, high probability moments and only on that go in aggressive.

Let's take a look right now on the 4-hour time frame. So here you can see I have updated the 4th wave that finished with the highest probability right here. And we have created the A, B and then final C wave right here. And right now we might be actually creating the final 5th wave, 1, 2, 3.

Right now we might be creating the 4th wave, alright, which is usually the alternation of the secondary wave So 1, 2, this was very short and deep, the alternative would be shallow and long, right? So we might be creating a 4th wave and then the final 5th wave might push us, alright, towards that $83,600 to liquidate that cluster usually the 5th wave equals the 1st wave and as you can see the

1st wave is kinda small. So if this 3rd wave is not going to be an extended one, we should liquidate that $83,000 and then reverse back in the opposite direction. Confirmations will be needed, definitely, but on the 4R timeframe, for me personally, I'm not turning into some bullish trading tactics as well.

Some of the traders from my team might be having a different opinion, but this is my opinion right now. I will be playing with bullish trading tactics only if I get proper confirmations. Let's take a look, however, what's also bullish at this moment, what we are not seeing actually, and we are not seeing the kind of divergence between what the whales are doing versus what the crowd is doing, alright?

So even though the funding rates are right now very positive, the longs are being crowded, 95% of market is having positive funding rates, we are revisiting the level plus 10% from where we have always seen a squeeze turned outside in the past year, we can see the funding rates are really positive right now, longs are being crowded, so longs are being vulnerable, but at the same time we can see that the

retail is greedy in long positions, but we can see see that the whales are actually supporting that, okay? So there is no divergence just yet. We can see in the past 24 hours whales have been mostly buying. 64% of whales have been buying versus 36% of whales selling, okay?

The other coin of love of whales have been Zcash. and what's also bullish is the altcoin. Speaking of altcoins, let's take a look at the Bitcoin dominance. So the altcoin market, if we take a look at the Bitcoin dominance, with the price action, three upside, that's also what makes this candle, this bullish candle right here quite really like real buying pressure, new money inflow and very bullish because the Bitcoin dominance went

down. So the price action of Bitcoin went up and Bitcoin dominance went down, which suggests a new money inflow. So that's also why it was so random. Because we are watching the market participants that are right now in the market. And with that, it's probably that we can assume what they are going to be doing.

But then if new money inflow flows into the market that creates a random moment where it pushed us very smoothly through the low time frame resistances, right? On the one hour time frame you can see that we've pushed through the resistances right here, this one and even this one like knife through a butter towards the next important resistance 81,000 rest which is right now being turned into a support, ladies and gentlemen,

on that possible 4th wave. So that's bullish and it suggests that new money inflowed in the market because Bitcoin price went up but Bitcoin dominance went down. So actually new money flowed into Bitcoin and then from Bitcoin it was sent also into altcoins without defecting the Bitcoin price.

So a lot of new money flowed into the market which makes this right here, this candle really really quite bullish alright but still the market structure is king and I don't have enough confirmations to call just yet that we will be able to reclaim this resistance alright from my perspective and neither that because of this I would call this a macro bottom so on the weekly time frame I'm still bearish alright

on the weekly time frame I'm still bearish I still expect that we will push towards this zone before creating a new annual time high. And on the daily timeframe, I'm still bearish as well. There is much higher probability of doing this kind of movement, alright, this kind of price action rather than reclaiming the resistance zone.

And that's it. So if we will reclaim it, okay, I will understand this is really smart whales buying. We might continue towards the next important resistance on the daily timeframe, for example, the $96,000, that's going to be the next important resistance if you will reclaim this resistance zone at $82,000.

But even though if you will reclaim this resistance zone on the daily timeframe, I will turn slightly bullish on the daily timeframe, but I will still not be bullish on the weekly timeframe and call in this a macro bar, alright, because of the things that I showed you in the beginning of the video.

So yes, a little bit more bullish right now, thanks to this bullish candle on the lower timeframes, but still keeping the same bias on the weekly and daily timeframe. So it's right now about your trading strategy, ladies and gentlemen, how you will approach the market situation.

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