In short: Simon stays bearish despite Bitcoin’s bullish divergence, bullish hammer and extreme fear reading. He argues whales are distributing while retail turns positive, so the weak bullish signals likely fail. The ParadiseTeam expects a push toward the $75,000 support zone, then a corrective bounce into $78,200 to $78,900 resistance.
Is Bitcoin bullish after touching extreme fear?
Track it live: our Crypto Fear and Greed Index updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
No, the signals stay weak. Bitcoin shows a bullish divergence, a bullish hammer and an extreme fear reading. That looks like a bullish confluence. But Simon warns that market context matters more than any single indicator.
The hammer itself is small, with a modest wick and volume below the prior bearish candle. Simon says size matters here. So the pattern cannot carry the same weight as the shooting star seen at $79,000.
Why does Simon still expect a Bitcoin crash?
Because the smart money is distributing while retail turns positive. Simon frames it as 20% of participants handling 80% of the money. When whales sell, retail provides the liquidity for their bags.
He points to the crowd mood and the whale tracker on the website. The live funding and positioning board shows where over-leveraged longs cluster. That crowd is often on the wrong side.
Simon also notes that 99% of traders lose everything within three years. He treats that three-year window as the real test of any strategy. Following the crowd feels safe but usually fails.
What are Simon’s key Bitcoin levels right now?
Simon marks a support zone near $75,000, where over-leveraged longs cluster. A 1.272 Fibonacci level sits at $75,000 and a 1.618 level near $74,300. He calls this the target of the final fifth wave.
Above that, he draws resistance at roughly $78,200 to $78,900. The secondary wave should not clear the previous first-wave high. His approach to levels and sizing keeps each idea disciplined.
On the weekly, Simon stays bearish and sees higher odds of breaking the $58,000 low. He expects the fourth and fifth waves may reach $44,000. More Bitcoin analysis videos track this bias.
How does the fifth wave play out from here?
Simon reads a completed truncated fifth on the one-hour chart. He now watches for a fresh first wave building as an impulse. The plan needs five smaller waves to confirm.
The high-probability path is a push into the $75,000 support zone. That would complete the first wave. Then a corrective secondary wave could lift price toward the $78,200 to $78,900 resistance.
If smart money positions short there and bears take control, Simon sees a possible shorting setup. He is playing bearish trading tactics across the daily and four-hour frames. He revisits it Thursday.
Frequently asked questions
Is Bitcoin bullish or bearish according to Simon?
Simon stays bearish across the weekly, daily and four-hour frames. He acknowledges the bullish divergence, bullish hammer and extreme fear reading. But he judges those signals weak because whales are distributing while retail turns positive. He expects a further move down before any meaningful bounce, and would only turn bullish on a resistance reclaim.
What is Simon’s Bitcoin support target?
Simon expects a push toward a support zone near $75,000. He notes over-leveraged long positions cluster there, plus a 1.272 Fibonacci level at $75,000 and a 1.618 level near $74,300. He calls this a liquidity pool and the likely target of the final fifth wave on the lower time frames.
Where is Simon’s Bitcoin resistance zone?
Simon draws resistance at roughly $78,200 to $78,900, with $78,300 as the lower boundary. He expects a corrective secondary wave to reach that area after the support test. That wave should not clear the previous first-wave high. If bears take control there, he sees a possible shorting opportunity.
Why does Simon distrust the bullish hammer?
Simon says the bullish hammer is small, with a modest wick and volume below the prior bearish candle. That makes it weaker than the shooting star seen near $79,000. He stresses that size and volume matter across multiple time frames. On its own, the pattern does not confirm a reversal.
What levels would make Simon turn bullish?
Simon would turn bullish if Bitcoin reclaims its daily resistance with clear support from the whales. Right now he sees higher odds of breaking the previous low near $58,000 than reclaiming that level. On the weekly he still expects moves that could reach $44,000, so his bias stays bearish.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Bitcoin is showing bullish divergence, we have created a bullish hammer candlestick pattern and our signature fear and greed indexed touched levels of an extreme fear. So does it mean that Bitcoin will bump or dump? Let's analyze. Hello ladies and gentlemen, this is Simon from MyCryptoParadise.
Welcome back, it's great to be here. Today is Tuesday and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So, previously we stated when Bitcoin was trading at $61,000 that with the highest probability we will push towards 79,000 dollars. So after a few months of being bullish, we have pushed 30% towards that 79,000 dollars mark, and after a few more confirmations we have turned bearish.
I'm still bearish on the daily timeframe, I can tell you that. But because we are professional traders, we are not satisfied with only one timeframe. We need multiple insights, we need more data, that is why we are analyzing also smaller timeframes. for that we have in the previous video two days ago that I have recorded for you two days ago understood that with the highest probability Bitcoin on the one hour time
frame will push towards $79,000 from here from this zone towards $79,000 that was the higher probability as we can see we have pushed towards that $79,000 and after we have created this shooting star candlestick pattern we have started to push to the downside okay and in this video we will try to understand if we are ready to push again to the upside or if there is going to be a continuation of
this trend. After we have touched our resistance and we have got multiple confirmations with Paradiser, we have taken an advantage out of that and we have shorted for example this altcoin which just crashed by around 20%. So right now, ladies and gentlemen, as you know from the intro, I've told you that we are having bullish divergence, we have created a bullish hammer candlestick pattern, plus we have touched the extreme level of
fear, right here. So that's usually bullish, right? this is a bullish confluence but there is the but because we are professional traders we understand that context in the market is extremely important okay a lot of traders think that there is one magical indicator that they can just watch and it will without any strategy without any trading tactic will tell them buy or sell and they don't need to do anything else well
if it would be that easy there will be much more millionaires in the crypto market, right? However, we understand that understanding the context of, for example, one of the contexts is the smart money versus dump money is very important, right? So, smart money, that's the 20% of the market participants handling 80% of the money in the crypto market.
Dump money, that's 80% of the market participants handling only 20% of the money circulating in the crypto market, okay. So we understand also our biases, right. So it's much more comfortable to do what the crowd is doing because in the ancient times it was much safer for us.
So our brain understands do what others are doing and you will will survive, right? If you have seen in the forest that somebody eats these berries and he didn't die, it was probably safe to eat those berries as well, right? It was much safer for you to be in a crowd and going into some direction, even though the direction was wrong.
But if you were in the crowd, there was much lower probability that you will be attacked by some predator. So doing something against the crowds is very uncomfortable, right? And now we have the social media and we can pretty much see what the crowds are feeling, what the crowds are doing and going against that, right?
Basically isolate yourself from this emotional behavior and creating your own personal trading strategy, your trading tactics and doing the uncomfortable things is usually much harder, right? But because we understand 99% of traders within three years in the crypto market, they lose everything. We have the data from the exchanges, we can see the deposits into separate accounts and we can see within three years, which is the big market cycle, where the smaller
market cycles exchange, so it tests the trader in the crypto market. anyone can make money, alright, the same way you can flip a coin and eight times, twenty times even in the row it's gonna drop as a head, alright, it's luck, it's luck, but three years well that's gonna test your strategy, that's gonna test the trader and that's the time frame we need to be focusing on, so based on this understanding
we also understand that the smart Smart money, alright, they probably have some insider information, they probably know what to do with their money much better and that is why we should be following the smart money not the dumb money, okay? So when we then spectate some bullish divergence or bearish divergence, we should be taking a look what the retail is doing on multiple timeframes, right?
What the retail is doing on multiple timeframes, how they are feeling, that's why we have crypto fear and greet index and what the whales are doing and that is why we have the crypto whale alert and tracker on our website MyCryptoParadise. Well and then when you are taking a look at it and you can see basically that during the sideways price action during this bullish American ballistic pattern and the small few
hour bullish price action when actually the momentum slowed down, what is happening, right? And if you see that the whales are selling and the retail is already getting positive, you probably understand that who is getting out and who's getting in, right? So the retail is providing the liquidity for the whales dump their bags, right?
So whales sold, how could they sold? Because somebody provided them the liquidity and we can see retail henceforth the bullish divergence that has been confirmed just by Alello all right it's probably not going to be working and we will see a crash for the continuation to the downside okay and that is what we are seeing right now furthermore for the bullish divergences there is other things that you need to be watching
for right confirmation that's what i'm always telling you so take a look at this shooting star candlestick pattern which you usually see at the top of the trends, shooting star candlestick pattern. Take a look at it. It's a big wig, small body, almost no wig at the bottom.
This is a proper shooting star where we can assume that the bears are being very aggressive in defending some important level. In this time, it was that $79,000. But take a look at this bullish hammer candlestick pattern. This is usually visible at the bottom of the trends, but size matters, ladies and gentlemen, a lot of people think size doesn't matter, size does matter, okay?
So take a look at the size, it's not too very big, is it? It's in fact quite small, so not a very big wick. Also the volume is not bigger than the previous volume on this bearish candle, so you cannot put the same strength to this bullish I do believe that right now we have created 1st, 2nd wave right here, 3rd wave right here, 4th wave right here, ok?
and right now we are creating the final 5th wave, what does it mean and where the 5th wave is gonna end, let me explain, for that we need to go a little bit back and we need to take a look what's happening, we already know what's happening with the cumulative volume delta that the whales are absorbing from the higher time frame, it's also important to understand higher time frame, okay, where is
this, lower time frame, alright, so something different is happening on the higher time frame, something different is happening on the lower time frame, so we know that whales have been already distributed heavily, so that's the macro time frame perspective, open interest basically was wiped out.
So on the weaker time frame, let's right now zoom out, alright, on the weaker time frame we know that I am, and you are, if you are watching this videos, you are as well probably bearish since 109,000 dollars and from that 121,000 dollars we do expect that we will will create those 5 moves towards this exchange of the hands-on $55,000 to $44,000, right?
So I'm still bearish on the weekly time frame and I do expect that we are right now creating the ending diagonal, right, and that there is much higher probability that we will break below the previous low $58,000 than that we will break below the previous high $82,000, alright?
so there is much higher probability that the price action will look something like this the fourth wave and the fifth wave might take us towards at $44,000 so I'm still bearish I will not be going digging deep into this because I've already went into the weekly time frame into much much more depth in the previous videos so watch the previous video if you have not watched it right now let's zoom in
into this section right here into that expanded flat so we are bullish right here. Afterwards, we have turned bearish, so I'm still bearish on the daily time frame, multiple bearish divergences already confirmed, bearish cross and also reclaim from the downside, so break, retest threat and right now we are looking to the downside, so I'm already playing with bearish trading tactics right here, I'm looking, monitoring and basically my mindset is bearish trading
tactics right here, yeah. RSI, bearish cross, reclaim from the downside as well, there is nothing bullish about that and Stochastic RSI also nothing bullish about it yeah so daily timeframe is still same much higher probability that we will break below the previous low 58 then that we will reclaim this resistance if we will reclaim this resistance i will turn bullish if i will see that there is like support from the whales
but right now there is much higher probability that we will see the reversal through downside. So no change on the daily. Let's zoom in into this very quickly. We don't have much time. So let's have a look right here. On the 4-hour time frame, you know, for some time now, I've been bullish.
Right now, I'm no longer bullish. I'm bearish on the 4-hour time frame. It doesn't mean that we will not see a push through the upside. I will explain. But it means that with the highest probability, we have already concluded the final sea wave, that means that we have created that five waves, one, two, three, four and this with diasprobability was the truncated fifth.
So right now I'm already watching out for the creation of the first wave because we understand that the next wave structure is going to be zigzag with diasprobability right, it's going to be the third wave of that ending diagonal and we know that the A wave is is a motive wave structure, so basically ABC, this is an impulse and the first wave is going to be an impulse as well, so I'm
watching out as a hawk for 5 waves to the downside, so then I can position myself or increase position size or whatever if you are in ParadiseFamilyVIP, you know exactly what we are doing live with the ParadiseTeam because we are sharing with you our personal trade setups with the strategy and trading tactics where you can see clearly our entry targets and exit targets.
So I might be treating that basically as another or a first or I might not even if I will not get enough confirmations but you know that I'm playing with bearish trading tactics so I can tell you I will be treating that as a bearish trading opportunity.
I'm not looking to play with bulls on the forward time frame anymore. Let's take a look, let's zoom in right now on the one hour time frame. So with the ice probability, this was the truncated fifth, alright, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, finished nicely with the shooting star.
And right now we might be creating already the first wave that impulse this one, okay. So we are watching for five smaller waves ladies and gentlemen, let's take a look at it. if you have created those already, 1, 2, 3, 4, and right now with the highest probability we are creating the 5th wave.
So where the 5th wave might finish, let's have a look. So first of all we understand that to get rid of this long squeeze probability on Bitcoin we need to liquidate that over leverage long positions, where the over leverage long positions have the cluster, this is the retail, right, and the retail is having the cluster at $75,000.
if we will push there, we will liquidate that over leverage long positions that are right now creating the long squeeze probability. Can we confront it with some important technical level? Well, we can see 1.272 Fibonacci retracement level sitting exactly at that $75,000 and 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level sitting at around $74,300.
So we can create a bullish zone right here is the liquidity pool aka our support zone. so with the highest probability that's going to be the target of that final 5th wave, alright? If that's going to be 5th wave sequence, it's going to be the confirmation and then I will be waiting for the corrective secondary wave which might take us, let's take a look and I will tell you where with the
highest probability it might take us, so we have some confluence right here at $78,000. And then if we take a look right at my Stakers, okay, $78,000 Confluence, that's nice. WIC right here, this is going to be a nice strong resistance. Alright, so ladies and gentlemen, the secondary wave should not go above the previous high of the first wave, so that is why I can create the resistance zone right here, alright,
very, very simple. So resistance for that secondary wave with us probability at around $78,200 to $78,900. If there will be nice confirmations and confluences that the smart money are positioned themselves into short positions and that the price action development structure telling us that the bears are taking control right here, this might be a very nice shortened trading opportunity.
So right now the high probability idea is that we will push towards this support zone, okay, and then that will complete the first wave and then that we will create the corrective secondary wave that will take us towards this resistance zone, $78,300 is the lower boundary of it.
So ladies and gentlemen, trade safe, alright, focus on a professional trading strategy and and I will see you again on Thursday. Cheers!
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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