In short: Simon stays bearish despite Bitcoin’s bullish divergence, bullish hammer and extreme fear reading. He argues whales are distributing while retail turns positive, so the weak bullish signals likely fail. The ParadiseTeam expects a push toward the $75,000 support zone, then a corrective bounce into $78,200 to $78,900 resistance.
Is Bitcoin bullish after touching extreme fear?
Track it live: our Crypto Fear and Greed Index updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
No, the signals stay weak. Bitcoin shows a bullish divergence, a bullish hammer and an extreme fear reading. That looks like a bullish confluence. But Simon warns that market context matters more than any single indicator.
The hammer itself is small, with a modest wick and volume below the prior bearish candle. Simon says size matters here. So the pattern cannot carry the same weight as the shooting star seen at $79,000.
Why does Simon still expect a Bitcoin crash?
Because the smart money is distributing while retail turns positive. Simon frames it as 20% of participants handling 80% of the money. When whales sell, retail provides the liquidity for their bags.
He points to the crowd mood and the whale tracker on the website. The live funding and positioning board shows where over-leveraged longs cluster. That crowd is often on the wrong side.
Simon also notes that 99% of traders lose everything within three years. He treats that three-year window as the real test of any strategy. Following the crowd feels safe but usually fails.
What are Simon’s key Bitcoin levels right now?
Simon marks a support zone near $75,000, where over-leveraged longs cluster. A 1.272 Fibonacci level sits at $75,000 and a 1.618 level near $74,300. He calls this the target of the final fifth wave.
Above that, he draws resistance at roughly $78,200 to $78,900. The secondary wave should not clear the previous first-wave high. His approach to levels and sizing keeps each idea disciplined.
On the weekly, Simon stays bearish and sees higher odds of breaking the $58,000 low. He expects the fourth and fifth waves may reach $44,000. More Bitcoin analysis videos track this bias.
How does the fifth wave play out from here?
Simon reads a completed truncated fifth on the one-hour chart. He now watches for a fresh first wave building as an impulse. The plan needs five smaller waves to confirm.
The high-probability path is a push into the $75,000 support zone. That would complete the first wave. Then a corrective secondary wave could lift price toward the $78,200 to $78,900 resistance.
If smart money positions short there and bears take control, Simon sees a possible shorting setup. He is playing bearish trading tactics across the daily and four-hour frames. He revisits it Thursday.
Frequently asked questions
Is Bitcoin bullish or bearish according to Simon?
Simon stays bearish across the weekly, daily and four-hour frames. He acknowledges the bullish divergence, bullish hammer and extreme fear reading. But he judges those signals weak because whales are distributing while retail turns positive. He expects a further move down before any meaningful bounce, and would only turn bullish on a resistance reclaim.
What is Simon’s Bitcoin support target?
Simon expects a push toward a support zone near $75,000. He notes over-leveraged long positions cluster there, plus a 1.272 Fibonacci level at $75,000 and a 1.618 level near $74,300. He calls this a liquidity pool and the likely target of the final fifth wave on the lower time frames.
Where is Simon’s Bitcoin resistance zone?
Simon draws resistance at roughly $78,200 to $78,900, with $78,300 as the lower boundary. He expects a corrective secondary wave to reach that area after the support test. That wave should not clear the previous first-wave high. If bears take control there, he sees a possible shorting opportunity.
Why does Simon distrust the bullish hammer?
Simon says the bullish hammer is small, with a modest wick and volume below the prior bearish candle. That makes it weaker than the shooting star seen near $79,000. He stresses that size and volume matter across multiple time frames. On its own, the pattern does not confirm a reversal.
What levels would make Simon turn bullish?
Simon would turn bullish if Bitcoin reclaims its daily resistance with clear support from the whales. Right now he sees higher odds of breaking the previous low near $58,000 than reclaiming that level. On the weekly he still expects moves that could reach $44,000, so his bias stays bearish.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Bitcoin is showing bullish divergence. We have created a bullish hammer candlestick pattern [music] and our signature fear and greed index touched levels of an extreme [music] fear. So does it mean that Bitcoin will pump or dump? Let's analyze [music] [music] my cryptoise. Hello ladies and gentlemen.
This is Amon from my crypto paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Tuesday and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So, previously we stated when Bitcoin was trading at $61,000 that with the highest probability we will push towards $79,000.
So, after a few months of being bullish, we have pushed 30% towards that $79,000 mark. And after a few more confirmations, we have turned bearish. I'm still bearish on the daily time frame. I can tell you that. But because we are professional traders, we are not satisfied with only one time frame.
We need multiple insights. We need more data. That is why we are analyzing also smaller time frames. For that, we have in the previous video two days ago that I have recorded for you two days ago understood that with the highest probability, Bitcoin on the 1 hour time frame will push towards $79,000 from here from this zone towards $79,000.
That was the higher probability. As we can see, we have pushed towards that $79,000. And after we have created this shooting star candlestick pattern, we have started to push to the downside. Okay. And in this video, we will try to understand if we are ready to push again to the upside or if there is going to be a continuation of this trend.
After we have touched our resistance and we have got multiple confirmations with Paris and VIPs, we have taken an advantage out of that and we have shorted for example this altcoin which just crashed by around 20%. So right now ladies and gentlemen as you know from the intro I've told you that we are having bullish divergence.
We have created a bullish hammer candlestick pattern plus we have touched the extreme level of fear right here. So that's usually bullish, right? This is a bullish confluence. But there is the butt because we are professional traders. We understand that context in the market is extremely important.
Okay. A lot of traders think that there is one magical indicator that they can just watch and it will without any strategy without any trading tactic will tell them buy or sell and they don't need to do anything else. Well, if it would be that easy, there would be much more millionaires in the crypto market, right?
However, we understand that understanding the context of for example one of the context is the smart money versus dump money is very important. Right? So smart money that's the 20% of the market participants handling 80% of the money in the crypto market. dump money.
That's 80% of the market participants handling only 20% of the money circulating in the crypto market. Okay. So, we understand also our biases, right? So, it's much more comfortable to do what the crowd is doing because in the ancient times it was much safer for us.
So our brain understands do what others are doing and you will survive. Right? If you have seen in the forest that somebody eats these berries and he didn't die, it was probably safe to eat those berries as well. Right? It was much safer for you to be in a crowd and going into some direction even though the direction was wrong but if you were in the crowd there was much lower probability
that you will be attacked by some predator. So doing something against the crowds is very uncomfortable, right? And now we have the social media and we can pretty much see what the crowds are feeling, what the crowds are doing and going against that, right?
basically isolate yourself from this emotional behavior and creating your own personal trading strategy, your trading tactics and doing the uncomfortable things is usually much harder, right? But because we understand 99% of traders [snorts] within 3 years in the crypto market, they lose everything.
We have the data from the exchanges. We can see the deposits into separate accounts and we can see within 3 years which is the big market cycle where the smaller market cycles exchange. So it tests the trader properly. Right? So 3 years that's the time frame that's the key time frame.
We can see 99% of traders they lose everything. There is nothing in the accounts to be withdrawn. All right. So we can understand also that there is luck involved in trading. So it's very easy to make money in the crypto trading, right? But what's hard is to be consistent and keep your profits in the long run, right?
So 3 years that's the key time frame. One, two years, few months, anyone can make money. All right? The same way you can flip a coin and eight times 20 times even in the row it's going to drop as a head. All right, it's it's luck.
It's luck. But three years, well that's going to test your strategy. That's going to test the trader and that's the time frame we need to be focusing on. So based on this understanding, we also understand that that the smart money, all right, they probably have some insider information.
they probably know what to do with their money much better and that is why we should be following the smart money not the dump money. Okay. So when we then spectate some bullish divergence or bearish divergence, we should be taking a look what the retail is doing on multiple time frames, right?
What the retail is doing on multiple time frames, how they are feeling. That's why we have the crypto fear and greet index and what the whales are doing and that is why we have the crypto whale alert and tracker on our website my crypto paradise.
Well, and then when you are taking a look at it and you can see basically that during the sideways price action during this bullish candlestick pattern and this small fewhour bullish price action when actually the momentum slowed down what is happening right and if you see that the whales are selling and the retail is already getting positive you probably understand that who is getting who is getting out and who's getting in,
right? So, the retail is providing the liquidity for the whales dump their bags, right? So, whales sold. How could they sold? Because somebody provided them the liquidity and we can see retail henceforth the bullish divergence that has been confirmed just by a little.
All right, is probably not going to be working and we will see a crash, a further continuation to the downside. Okay. And that is what we are seeing right now. Furthermore, for the bullish divergences, there is other things that you need to be watching for, right?
Confirmation. That's what I'm always telling you. So, take a look at this shooting star candlestick pattern, which you usually see at the top of the trends, right? Shooting star candlestick pattern. Take a look at it. It's a big wick, small body, almost no wig at the bottom.
This is a proper shooting star where we can assume that the bears are being very aggressive in defending some important level. In this time it was that 79,000 there, right? But take a look at this bullish hammer candlesty pattern. This is usually visible at the bottom of the trends.
But size matters, ladies and gentlemen. A lot of people think size doesn't matter. Size does matter. Okay? So take a look at the size. It's not very big, is it? It's in fact quite small. So not a very big wick. Also the volume is not bigger than the previous volume on this bearish candle.
So you cannot put the same strength of to this bullish armor candlestick pattern as to this shooting star candlestick where the wick is much bigger right the upside wick. So size matters and you need to be controlling and watching also for the volume on multiple time frames.
So right now ladies and gentlemen, we also understand the price action development. I do believe that right now we have created first second wave right here. Third wave right here. Fourth trade right here. Okay. And right now we are creating the final fifth wave.
What does it mean and where the fifth wave is going to end? Let me explain. For that we need to go a little bit back and we need to take a look what's happening. We already know what's happening with the cumulative volume delta that the whales are absorbing from the higher time frame.
It's also important to understand higher time frame. Okay. Whereas this lower time frame all right so something different is happening on the higher time frame. Something different is happening on the lower time frame. So we know that wells have been already distributed heavily.
So that's the macro time frame perspective. open interest basically was wiped out. So on the weekly time frame, let's right now zoom out. All right, on the weekly time frame, we know that I am and you are if you are watching this videos, you're as well probably bearish since $19,000 and from that $121,000, we do expect that we will create those five moves towards this exchange of the hand zone 55 to
$44,000. Right? So I'm still bearish on the weekly time frame and I do expect that we are right now creating the ending diagonal. All right. And that there is much higher probability that we will break below the previous low $58,000 then that we will break below the previous high $82,000.
All right. So there is much higher probability that the price action will look something like this. The fourth wave and the fifth wave might take us towards at $44,000. So I'm still bearish. I will not be going digging deep into this because I've already went into the weekly time frame into much much more depth in the previous videos.
So watch the previous video if you have not watched it. Right now let's zoom in into this section right here into that expanded flat. So we were bullish right here. Afterwards we have turned bearish. So I'm still bearish on the daily time frame.
Multiple bearish divergences already confirmed bearish cross and also reclaim from the downside. So break retest red and right now Royal are looking to the downside. So I'm already playing with bearish trading tactics right here. I'm looking monitoring and basically my mindset is bearish trading tactics right here.
Yeah, RSI bearish cross reclaim from the downside as well. There is nothing bullish about it. And stoastic RSI also nothing bullish about it. Yeah. So daily time frame is still same. much higher probability that we will break below the previous low 58 then that we will reclaim this resistance.
If we will reclaim this resistance I will turn bullish if I will see that there is like support from the whales but right now there's much higher probability that we will see the reversal to the downside. Yeah. So no change on the daily.
Let's zoom in into this very quickly. We don't have much time. So let's have a look right here on the 4our time frame. You know, for some time I I've been bullish. Right now, I'm no longer bullish. I'm bearish on the 4hour time frame.
Doesn't mean that we will not see a push to the upside. I will explain. But it means that with the highest probability, we have already concluded the final C-wave. That means that we have created that five waves. 1 2 3 four. And this with the highest probability was the truncated fifth.
So right now I'm already watching out for the creation of the first wave because we understand that the next wave structure is going to be zigzag with the probability right that's going to be the third wave of that ending diagonal and we know that the A wave is a motive wave structure so basically ABC this is an impulse and the first wave is going to be an impulse as well so I'm
watching out as a hawk for five waves to the outside so then I can position myself or increase position size or whatever if you're in Paris VIP. You know exactly what we are doing live with the paring because we are sharing with you our personal trade setups with the strategy and trading tactics where you can see clearly our entry targets and exit targets.
So I might be treating that basically as another or a first or I might not even if I will not get enough confirmations. But you know that I'm playing with bearish trading tactics. So I can tell you I will be treating that as a bearish trading opportunity.
I'm not looking to play with bulls on the 4 time frame anymore. Let's take a look. Let's zoom in right now on the 1 hour time frame. So with the highest probability this was the truncated fifth. All right. 1 2 3 4 nicely with the shooting star.
And right now we might be creating already the first wave that impulse this one. Okay. So we are watching for five smaller waves ladies and gentlemen. Let's take a look at it. If we have created those already. 1 2 3 4 and right now with the highest probability we are creating the fifth wave.
So where the fifth wave might finish. Let's have a look. So first of all we understand that to get rid of this long squeeze probability on Bitcoin we need to liquidate that overlever long positions. Where do overlever long positions have the cluster? This is the retail right and the retail is having the cluster at $75,000.
If we will push there, we will accurate that over leverage long positions that are right now creating the long squeeze probability. Can we confluence it with some important technical level? Well, we can see 1.272 Fibonacci retracement level sitting exactly at that $75,000 and 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level sitting at around $74,300.
So, we can create a bullish zone right here is the liquidity pool aka our support zone. So with the highest probability that's going to be the target of that final fifth wave. All right. If that's going to be five wave sequence, it's going to be the confirmation and then I will be waiting for the corrective secondary wave which might take us.
Let's take a look and I will tell you where with that probably it might take us. So we have some confluence right here at $78,000. And then if we take a look where it might take us. Okay, $78,000 confluence. That's nice wick right here.
This is going to be a nice strong resistance. All right. So ladies and gentlemen, the secondary wave should not go above the previous high of the first wave. So that is why I can create the resistance zone right here. All right. Very very simple.
So resistance for that secondary wave with the highest probability at around $78,200 to $78,900. All right. If there will be nice confirmations and confluences that the smart money are positioned themselves into short positions and that the price action development structure telling us that the bears are taking control right here.
This might be a very nice shortening trading opportunity. So right now the high probability idea is that we will push towards this support zone. Okay. And then that will complete the first wave and then that we will create the corrective secondary wave that will take us towards this resistance zone.
$78,300 is the lower boundary of it. So ladies and gentlemen, trade safe. All right. Focus on a professional trading strategy and I will see you again on Thursday. Cheers. [music] Calm breath, clear eyes. Work done now. Right. No rush, no drag. Right time, full snap.
Clean set up. [music] Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. M [music] clean set
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Join the discussion
No comments yet. Members, share how you are reading this.