Bitcoin at $82K: Simon’s Path to a $90K Breakout

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Bitcoin bulls are fighting hard to defend the key $82,000 zone. [music] Bears are losing momentum and a bullish divergence is starting to form. Can the bulls drive towards $90,000? [music] Or are the bears secretly set in a trap? Let's analyze. [music] Hello ladies and gentle.

This is from my crypto paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. So previously we have discussed Bitcoin on the medium time frame and with the highest probability we have understood that we might be breaking above this contracting triangle and start pushing towards $90,000.

So as we can see on the 4hour time frame we have started to continue that breakout and we pump for around let me see for around 2% we have hit our resistance with paradis we have taken our first take profit target on bitcoin at that resistance so does it mean that we need to right now start pushing through the outside let's analyze so right now we can see on the medium time

frame that the bulls are stronger than the bears. Clearly, we have created a bullish divergence as you can see lower low on the price action, higher low on the MACD histogram. The bearish momentum much lower than on the previous low right here. This is called a bullish divergence.

And that is also what helped Bitcoin to break above this upper resistance of this contracting triangle that we went through in the previous video, right? We understand that this contracting triangle, this one right here, is usually visible at the fourth waves of an impulse, right?

And what comes after a fourth wave? Well, if this impulse is visible in an uptrend, the next wave is the fifth one that takes us higher. And for the fifth wave, we have an target $90,000. That is the most logical next important resistance at 1.272 272 Fibonacci retracement level plus it's confluenced with other important historic price action levels.

As you can see back in January 2026, it worked as a resistance before that as a support. So very important level from the historical price action perspective as well. VPVR volume profile on the higher time frame. If you zoom out, it was visible for a glance right here.

there was a lot of activity, a lot of trading activity previously. So that is why we can see a nice volume profile at that level. So more confluences means the level is stronger, right? The more you can confluence some level, the stronger it is.

And not only it will work as a strong resistance, but also the strong levels where we see a lot of confluences work as a magnet, right? So the price action is naturally attracted to that level. So if this is really a fourth wave of our impulse where the first wave was created right here 1 two then we have got the third wave that subdivides itself into five small waves as well.

1 2 3 4 5 and right now we are in a fourth wave. That means that this breakout, potential breakout out of this contracting triangle might push us really towards that $90,000. But we need to also take a look what the bears are doing.

Are they setting some trap behind the scenes? Let's analyze. But first of all, let me show you what is actually nice, what I like about this breakout. All right. So first of all we had a slowdown in volume during this consolidation when we were creating the contracting triangle that is naturally subdividing itself into five small waves A B C D E right here presume that this is really a contracting triangle.

It was finished and that means that right now we are already beginning the first wave structure of that fifth wave. As you know the fifth wave is a motive wave structure right because you are studying inside of our MCP3 university itself into five small waves because it's a motive wave structure and usually it's an impulse but it can be also truncated which is important.

All right and if there is going to be a truncation usually the fifth wave is an ending diagonal. Okay. So it doesn't need to be just an impulse in the fifth wave. It can also be an ending diagonal that is subdivide itself into five small waves as well.

But all of them are corrective wave structures. Let's discuss that. First of all, the truncation means that the final fifth wave doesn't need to go above the end of the third wave. All right? So that's important to understand as well that this might have been already the top at $87,000 and the next big move will happen in the opposite direction without pushing above the previous high of that $87,000.

There is a possibility. So we need to take a look at the price action development and we need to spectate the completion of the pattern either an impulse or an ending diagonal for us to understand if it's going to be a truncation with the highest probability or not.

Right? If it's not going to be a truncation and we will start breaking above that previous high, there is extremely high odds that we will push towards that next important resistance $90,000. Okay. So from the ultra low time frame perspective, we have already hit the resistance at $85,000, but it's not even a target of the triangle, right?

So if we measure the depth of the triangle from the low to the high and put it to the breakout point, we can see we are still short of around 1.11% of hitting the target of the breakout of that contracting triangle. So this was ultra low time frame resistance that we have hit and but I don't think that this is the end of that breakout push.

So I do believe that we can push much higher. So why do I believe so? Well, first of all, take a look at the volume that we have experienced during the consolation during the creation of the contracting triangle, right? So the volume usually what you see during these consolations is that the volume slows down.

Okay? So it slowed down nicely as the price action started to create lower highs the volume as well right there was no if we would be picking up on the volume as the price action would start going to the downside that would actually tell us well we are probably already creating a motive wave in an opposite direction and the next big move is going to be to the downside but this wasn't

that right we were going to the downside plus the volume was fading which suggested that there is much higher probability today that this is just a corrective wave structure before a continuation in that previous uptrend. You can learn this kind of stuff as well because we have prepared for you in our MCP3 university with the help of AI right now.

You can basically learn Eliot wave very easily, right? And it gives you this kind of learning path where you can understand what is usually happening during the corrective wave structures. All right. What is usually happening during the final fifth waves etc. And all of this is going to help you to become better professional trader.

So give it a try. MCP3 on our website markettoparadise.com. We have spent a lot of time to make sure that you are getting the best learning experience and I do believe that you will love it and that hopefully it's going to help you to be a better trader.

So let's right now take a look. So we have back to on the fourth wave. fade in volume during the corrective wave structure that told us with the highest probability this is indeed a fourth wave and the fifth wave is going to be to the upside right so on the fifth wave what we actually want to see because it's a multi-wave structure we want to see picking up of the volume right

and definitely on that breakout we want to see a volume above the moving average trend line which would tell us there is a higher probability that there is going to be a further continuation in the direction So did that happen? Let's take a look.

Right. So after we have completed the E-wave which is part of that corrective fourth wave structure. We have started to push to the upside and we have started to pick up on volume as well. Right? So this was a first high after completion of fourth wave structure and then another high.

All right. And you can see there is no divergence with the volume. So volume also created a higher high. Right. So bulls were picking up on strength and most importantly during the breakout above this contracting upper trend line resistance we went with the volume above the moving average volume trend line which is bullish and it's given us a probability that there is going to be a further continuation because the participation on

that bullish side increased right so I do believe that we have not yet completed the pattern of that final fifth wave. We are creating couple of first one twos right. So one two one two right now and I do believe that we are about to start the third wave.

The third wave expansion in the bullish direction. Okay. So one two and then right now if this was the one two of the higher degree third wave because we understand this is one two then we have the third wave that subdivid itself into far smaller waves as well.

So 1, two, three might come, fourth, fifth, that will conclude the final third wave and then it really depends where it's going to end. If the third wave is going to end right at that 1.272 Fibonacci retracement level at that $90,000, then we can expect there will be a fourth wave and the final fifth wave will take us up to $95,000.

Okay, if you take a look at the liquidation map, we can see that we have enough liquidity to start pushing towards that $90,000. But then if we zoom out a little bit, it starts to fade towards that $95,000. Right? So what we can understand is that if we liquidate this cluster that is right now at $85,000, there will be a lot of liquidation of short positions and that will give us enough

momentum to continue to push towards the next liquidation levels which are there, right? And continue towards that $90,000 because we understand that if we liquidate a short position, automatically the contracts needs to be bought back and that naturally move the price action higher, right?

However, afterwards we can see there is kind of nothing. So right now the highest probability is that $90,000 and then we will see reversal. All right. So at this moment it seems like the third wave will be finished uh below that $90,000. We will create fourth wave and then the final fifth wave take us towards that $90,000 and then we will see a rejection.

Right? If that's going to be the case, we will be checking for confirmations the price action right here. And if you're in Paris some VIP and we decided to go into some swing short position, you will know about that because we are sharing there with you uh our personal trade setups with clear entry and exit targets live as we take them.

We send them into that inner circle private channels. So right now ladies and gentlemen, I kind of like this breakout. It should suggest given that we also have this bullish divergence that is right now being confirmed because we can see that on the MACD the blue line is crossing above the red line.

So this is a bullish cross but that's not enough for me. We can also see that we have this kind of reclaim and then we have started to look to the upside thanks to this candle which is suggest that this bullish divergence and this bullish cross is healthy and that we can continue in the bullish direction.

So if you are in the pro paradacer membership, you already have an access to this mic crypto paradise RSI intelligence. It's injected with AI and basically it has all of the knowledge we have about these momentum indicators, right? And basically if we are right now working on finishing the development of the MACD MCP intelligence, but if there would be already the MACD intelligence, there would be four out of five points.

So on this individual indicator the probability of continuation is kind of high. All right. But as a professional traders we are watching not only one momentum indicator. We want to have more confluences because the more confluences the more data you can you can gather you can get the probability points much more accurately.

Right? And what we see right now on the RSI is that it's not actually respecting the bullish divergence that is visible on the MACD. And that might be the trap of the bears right because you can see right here on the price action we have created lower low the same way we have done it however on the RSI.

So right now if we will not be able to sustain above this moving average RSI trend line the bears might start taking over given that stoastic RSI is right now trying to sustain the bearish cross and looking to the outside in this zone.

All right, the bears might really start taking over. And if that's going to be the case, all right, if that's going to be the case and we will get back to the zone of the triangle. All right, so back below this upper trend line that previously was working as a resistance as we have broken it.

The upside is right now working as a support. As you can see, if we will go back below it, all right, it will increase the probability that the bears will start picking up on strength. All right. And if we will, if the bears will be able to reclaim from below this support, important crucial support zone that is right now sitting at that 83 to $82,000.

All right, it will tell us, okay, this is apparent failure and we will be pushing towards the next important support that is sitting at $80,000, ladies and gentlemen. And from the downside we can actually see that at that $80,000 there is some kind of a cluster of liquidation levels.

So the bears might be might be hunting the stop losses positioned exactly at that support. However, are the smart money supporting this bias, this bearish bias? Well, we can take a look on our tracker on the wells tracker that we have on our website microtop paradise.com and we can see that in the past 24 hours they are selling more than buying.

All right, they have started to started to sell in. There is 56% of selling versus 44% buying in the past 24 hours. All right, so we can see around $200 million were bought. All right, $259 million were sold from Wales from the smart money.

So, it's not a huge divergence, right? Given that in the past 3 to six days, the whales have been aggressively accumulating and buying Bitcoin, we can assume that this might be some tactical profits taken. All right. However, did they made some profit? We can see on the cumulative volume delta where they have been actually open in the long positions.

All right. And we can see that they are actually at break even right now. So there is not much profit taken from the whales. So take a look at this on the cumulative volume delta. We are monitoring only the spot which is the smart money because if you have a lot of money you don't need to borrow any and you don't need to play much with leverage, right?

So spot on cumulative volume delta is important to watch. So on the CVD we can see that as the price action was consolidating in that corrective fourth wave structure the smart money was accumulating actually right you can see the CVD had a divergence with the price action.

So the price action was creating lower lows but we saw higher lows on the CVD. So as the price action went down we have seen an absorption of the selling pressure which also thanks to that created this bullish diverence visible on the MACD histogram right so they slowed down the momentum of the bears thanks to that and they have started to do that aggressively at around $84,000 all right so here if

we take a look right now they are actually at break even so there is No profits taken. What they are doing the wells right now they are closing at break even. So the conviction of pushing higher after this first rejection of hitting our ultra low time frame resistance at that $85,500 on which we have with paris VIPs taking our first take profit on this Bitcoin position.

They probably some of the whales stopped getting too much convinced of the price action being able to push higher and they started to close and started to sell some of their positions. However, if we take a look at the 3-day time frame, we can still see that most of the whales are still in their position that they were accumulating at that uh $84,000.

So right now the price is at $83,500. We can see that some of the whales sold. All right. But not all of the whales closed their positions. Right. So if we will start seeing that the cumulative volume delta, the CVD getting back to that 2.07 level from where they have started the accumulation during the fourth wave structure.

That will be worrying for me and I will start looking for early signs of the pattern failure and potential breaking below this support at that 83 to $82,000. Right? But until then I still hold more bullish buyers on the 4hour time frame and there is much higher probability that we will reach $90,000 then that we will start breaking and reclaiming from below this support zone.

All right. However, if I will start seeing the kind of confirmations that the whales are already changing their direction, I will be flexible like a water, right? So, I'm not trying to fight them. I don't have this kind of like money power for me to be able to fight them, right?

So, if we cannot fight them, let's join them, right? So, we need to be flexible like a water, right? The water is the strongest element in the world. And the water when in front of the water there is a stone or some obstacle the water doesn't try to fight it right it goes around it right it adapts to its environment and if we want to be also like survive right because the

the water is here from the beginning. So if you want to survive and be profitable longterm, we probably need to learn something from water and probably learn the flexibility, the adaptability, right? So no ego involved. Let's be flexible. If the wheels will tell us, look, we are changing direction, let's change the direction as well.

And from bullish trading tactics, we will turn into bearish trading tactic focus. Okay. Right now what is decreasing the probability that the break below $82,000 will happen is also that I don't see any extreme leverage involved in the market right now. So that is uh withdrawing this kind of power from creating some domino effect in the opposite direction.

All right. To the downside because as we can see as we were trending in that contracting triangle. All right. The open interest decreased drastically. There was a lot of deleveraging. All right. A lot of deleveraging. People were closing their positions. All right. And somebody was picking up on that.

Right? Because again when you close a long position you need to sell the contracts back, right? So that was mostly created like the selling pressure during the contracting wave. The fourth wave was mostly created by closure of long positions and that we saw is being absorbed by the spot money.

Okay. So logically like it's very simple right now to assume that you probably agree with me that right now logically all right uh for the market makers it's not going to be as profitable to push to the downside as if they would start push to the upside to the next important resistance of that 90 which is that 90,000.

So ladies and gentlemen structure all right is bullish. All right behind the scenes the data that we are seeing is also bullish on the sentiment what the crowds are doing we can see on our Bitcoin fear and greed index. By the way what I really like to do lately is to try and figure it out if in the next 4 hours or and also on the daily time frame if people are

getting going to get greedier or more fearful. It's this kind of little game that we have set up for you and I really myself I like to play it because you know that as a professional trader the most powerful play that you can do sometimes is sit on your hands.

All right. And a lot of people are fidgety right? They always want to do something. So that is why we have set up these kind of trader games. We have set it up for example on the whale tracker as well. So you can click the click the buttons like there instead of on the exchange because most people most traders in the matter of fact don't understand that there are actually not only

two positions long and short there are actually three positions. There is long short and then no position at all. Right? You have also the option to take the position of no position at all. And sometimes that's the most hardest position to take because it requires patience.

It requires discipline to wait for your edge to wait for your high probability trade setup. All right. So to help you with that, we have set up those games and we have it on the funding crates as well where basically you can instead of buy and sell on the exchange, you can here try and bet on what's going to happen next, right?

On the funding crates, on the fear and greet index, on the whale tracker and it actually it's actually very helpful. It's actually very helpful because there is something to do. So you actually increase your patience to wait for your highest probability trade setup.

Right? So a lot of people forget that patience is extremely important not only before entering the trade but then when you are in a correct position. All right. And uh and the position is going in your direction you want to take the profit right because you want to have this kind of great feeling that you have achieved something and that you have you have been correct on the market.

But that's usually wrong. People usually doing the wrong thing of letting their losses right right because they don't want to be proved wrong by the market and when they are correct on their trade they want to take the profit too quickly right because they want to be proved correct on the direction and the opposite is actually much more profitable in the long run.

Cut your losses straight with a clear stop- loss if you set up one and when you are profiting from the trade let it ride. So don't only set sit on your hands when you are waiting for your high probability trade setup. Sit on your hands also when you are in your trade setup and the trade setup is actually going in your direction.

All right. So this is really helpful. So from the sentiment perspective we don't see that people are extremely greedy at this moment. So we don't see that people are right now smashing the buy button extremely. We see the opposite right the open interest.

We are clearly seeing a huge deleveraging. So majority of the people so we can assume the dump money aka the retail money is using leverage and right now they are out of the position. So they are weighing right and we can assume given that there are no future positions right as you can see we have got a huge deleveraging like there are some right positions long positions overlever long positions but not

that many right. So we can assume that there's not going to be enough liquidity for the market makers to create the domino effect on the downside. Right? So again, it's just decreasing the probability that we have completed the bullish structure and the next big move is going to be to the downside.

All right? No, there is a higher probability that the next big move is going to be to the upside. And even though if the bears are setting up some trap, which doesn't look like it right now, the bulls will be able to at this moment, it at least seems like it, they will be able to fight them quite easily.

All right, but the invalidations are clear, right? If you will start seeing that the structure is changing, we will adapt like a water. So right now on the daily time frame, we are above the moving average trend line. Yes, we have a bearish cross on some momentum indicators.

Yes, we have classic bearish divergence on the daily time frame right here. We have a bearish cross on the RSI. We have one out of five, however, only points on our bearish divergence um from the RSI intelligence and the bearish cross is not yet confirmed.

Okay. So, so basically I would not put it that strong points right now. Okay. So ladies and gentlemen, I didn't go through the weekly time frame because you know what I expect from the weekly time frame. Let me repeat it one more time for last time.

In the previous videos I have been going through this into a big detail. So with the highest probability right 60% probability that we will we will complete the C wave structure from the weekly time frame perspective at around 88 which we have already touched $90,000.

All right. And then we will start pushing towards uh the exchange of the hand zone $55 to $44,000. Then we have a 30% probability that the final fifth wave will be an extended one which I have explained in the previous video how that could happen and that would push us towards $99,000 and then have a reversal to the downside or the 10% probability smallest probability almost like only 10% odds that we

will reclaim this resistance turn it into support and we will continue into this kind of attack of the previous high and then we will continue towards the new alltime high that I predict is going to be at $169,000. That's the lowest probability. But again, as a professional traders, we need to be prepared for everything, right?

We always need to be prepared for the black swan events, right? Because during the black swan events, the professional traders are the ones that actually are okay or even profiting. And most of the traders that been profiting in the short run during the black swan events, they lose absolutely everything, right?

So for the black swan events and it black swan can be a huge drop or huge pump as a professional risk managers we always need to be focused on that and that's probably also why my crypto paradise is still around and profiting since 2016 right when other people were already gone and liquidated multiple times and other companies.

So I would rather miss a trade than risk in mind our clients capital unnecessarily. That is also why my crypto paradise is risk first trade second company. We always think about risk first because we do believe that and we know that that's essential for a long-term survival and long-term profitability.

So right now ladies and gentlemen, you know exactly what I'm watching for. Definitely pay attention to this descending trend line of this contracting triangle first. All right. If that's going to start reclaiming from below, then watch the 83 to $82,000 support. Very important support.

If we will start losing that, it will push us towards the next important support at $80,000. But right now, as I've already told you, 60 to 70% probability that we will start pushing to the upside. All right? And only around 30% probability that this this support is going to break.

So on the medium time frame, I'm bullish. I'm still bullish until the market proves me wrong. All right, ladies and gentlemen. So until until next time, in the next video, we will discuss also the funding crates. We can see that we are also not at the 90-day high of plus 10% which is again suggesting that we have like some room for the final fifth wave to go higher.

All right. So yes the funding crates are a little bit positive getting a little bit positive that but context is always important. So in the context of open interest we can actually see that most of the positions are not around anymore right. So okay, some of the positions that are around right now might be a little bit crowded.

The longs are more crowded than the shorts, but context is always important. We have got a huge delever in moment right now. So new positions might be coming up back into the market and they are not yet in. And so I do believe that during the fifth wave, if the fifth wave is going to happen, they will start they will come back in.

All right? And they will fund actually the distribution. All right. And they will fund and give fuel for the reversal. Right? Because again if there will come the over leverage buying pressure over long position right here the smart money will have enough liquidity to distribute their backs and then without slippage they will be able to start pushing to the downside and creating the the long squeeze nicely.

All right ladies and gentlemen. So this is just my view at this moment. It can change. So monitor the market 24/7 as we do. Watch for the supports. Watch for the next resistances and until next time. All right. So next time next video will be on Saturday.

Until then take care. Trade safe. Focus on your strategy because if you don't have a strategy then your strategy is to fail. I don't want you to gamble. All right? I want you to focus on the long term. So focus on your strategy.

Focus on the process not the outcome. Right? not on the outcome, on the process. With successful process, you can be profitable long term. Don't focus on trying to get rich quick. Because then your main focus is money. And usually when your focus is money, not the process, you're using bad process and sooner or later you will lose everything, right?

As 99% of people in this market does within three years. So focus on the process. All right? and I will see you safe and nicely safe and secured on Saturday. All right, [snorts] cheers. [music] Calm breath, clear eyes. Work done now right. No rush, no [music] drag.

Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. M [music] clean set