In short: The ParadiseTeam says no. Despite US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulling nearly $1 billion in their largest daily inflow in 12 months, Simon does not believe Bitcoin made its macro bottom. Whales are selling into retail greed, so he stays bearish on the macro timeframe until price action confirms otherwise.
Can Bitcoin reach a new high at $169,000 now?
Track it live: our Crypto Fear and Greed Index updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
Not with high probability, according to Simon. The ETF inflow is real, but he does not think Bitcoin built its macro bottom. He works with probabilities, not beliefs. Right now the odds favor a rejection before any run toward $169,000.
Simon points to a rare divergence. Retail sits in extreme greed while smart money sells. In the past 24 hours, 62% of tracked whales were selling versus 38% buying. That gap is the warning sign he watches closely.
Why are whales selling into retail greed?
The whales use retail buying as exit liquidity. The fear and greed index sits at level 80, funding rates are positive, and open interest is grinding into extreme numbers. Crowded longs give big sellers the buyers they need to offload without heavy slippage.
Because the crowd is stacked on one side, Simon suggests caution with long positions. You can review the same positioning data on the live funding board. He would not open new aggressive longs here.
What price levels does Simon flag?
Simon watches $88,000 as the resistance to reclaim. Above it, the next major target is $99,000. That level lines up with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from $125,000 to the swing low at $58,000. It also meets the 1.618 level from prior price action.
The liquidation map shows a big imbalance. A push down toward $67,000 would liquidate over $16 billion in longs. A push up toward $99,000 would liquidate only $2 billion. So the path of least resistance points down.
This is why he talks about protecting open trades. Moving a stop to break even or taking profit is reasonable here. Simon’s view on capital preservation matters most when the map is this lopsided.
What is the exchange of the hands zone?
Simon points to a support zone between $44,000 and $55,000. He calls it the exchange of the hands zone. Here, poor risk managers capitulate and sell at a loss, while smart money reaccumulates. Every cycle since 2011 needed this phase before a real bull market.
In 2026, Bitcoin came close to the baseline but has not forced that capitulation yet. Simon argues a cycle without it would be the first since 2011. That keeps his macro bias bearish until proven otherwise.
What would change Simon’s mind?
Simon needs confirmation from price action and on-chain order flow. He is watching the next correction closely. An aggressive, high-volume drop suggests a final fifth wave toward the lower support zone. A shallow, corrective pullback would hint at a real bull start.
For now he sees a shooting star candle and bearish divergence on the MACD histogram. The cumulative volume delta is not confirming the higher high. That suggests leverage, not smart money, is driving price. More context sits on the video analysis hub.
Frequently asked questions
Does Simon think Bitcoin will hit $169,000?
Not with high probability right now. Simon believes Bitcoin has not made its macro bottom. Despite a near $1 billion ETF inflow, whales are selling into retail greed. He works with probabilities and sees a higher chance of rejection than a direct run to a new all-time high.
What levels is Simon watching on Bitcoin?
He watches $88,000 as the resistance to reclaim first. Above it, his next major target is $99,000, where two Fibonacci levels meet. The liquidation map shows over $16 billion in longs near $67,000 and only $2 billion near $99,000, so downside is the path of least resistance.
Why does capitulation matter for the cycle?
Simon says every cycle since 2011 needed a capitulation phase before a real bull market. In the exchange of the hands zone between $44,000 and $55,000, weak holders sell at a loss while smart money reaccumulates. Without that reset, there are too few new buyers to sustain new highs.
What would make Simon turn bullish?
He wants confirmation from price action and on-chain order flow. Simon is watching the next correction. A shallow, corrective pullback with a clean structure would suggest a real bull start. He would then look to reaccumulate. Until that shows, he stays bearish on the macro timeframe.
Is the ETF inflow enough to start a bull market?
Not on its own, according to Simon. The near $1 billion inflow was the largest in 12 months, but he sees smart money selling into it. The cumulative volume delta and open interest suggest leverage is driving price, not spot smart money. He needs more confirmation first.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs just recorded their largest daily inflow in 12 months, pulling in nearly $1 billion. Does this mean the bull market is back and Bitcoin could push toward a new alltime high of $169,000? Let's analyze the probabilities. Hello ladies, this is Simon from My Crypto Paradise.
Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Tuesday and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So, do I believe that Bitcoin created its macro bottom and is ready to push towards $169,000? Well, I can reveal to you that I don't believe so.
All right. And right now in this video, I will explain to you the reasons why I don't believe that Bitcoin is entering a bull market yet. So first of all let's take a look what's happening with the money smart money versus the dump money versus the retail money and we can see that unlike in the previous video where we have seen that fear and greed index is indeed at extreme greed so
retail was buying we saw that majority of people are bullish and in a long positions together with that whales have been buying as well right now We see the opposite. We see the divergence. We see this kind of moment that is rarely happening.
But it's extremely important for us to pay attention to. All right. So in the past 24 hours, we can see the whales are mostly selling. 62% of the whales that we are tracking are selling versus 38% of them were buying in the past 24 hours which is quite a big divergence not only between the whales but also what we see between the whales and retail.
Okay. So it's extremely important to understand what is happening during these moments where we have the divergence. So the crowd is feeling extreme greed. they are in a long positions. We can see the funding crates are positive. So the longs are being crowded.
And we can also see that as the price is grinding higher. All right. The open interest is grinding higher as well. And we are actually entering an extreme numbers in open interest. So new positions are flowing in. We can clearly see based on the funding crates is long positions and the crowd is feeling extremely greedy.
We are entering our level 80 on our free and greed index which is extreme levels ladies and gentlemen and at the same time the smart money are right now selling. All right. So we can assume from this given that the price action is slowing down that the buying pressure created by retail is being used by the smart money as exit liquidity.
All right. So for the big money for them to be able to sell their bags they need somebody else to buy from them right. So without moving the market much thanks to this buying liquidity that is right now coming from the retail they are able to dump their bags does it mean that Bitcoin needs to immediately crash?
No, it doesn't. Right. But it gives us gives us this kind of warning sign to be careful if we are in some unsecured long positions to probably secure them, right? Either move your stop loss to profit to break even or considering take profit might not be a bad idea, right?
Definitely at this moment given that on the weekly time frame we are also at extremely important resistance that I will be talking about. It's really not a bad idea to take a look at your long positions and it's probably not a smart idea to open new aggressive long positions because you would probably just feed these whales and give them the opportunity to sell more without creating some slippage some some action on
the market that would create slippage on their orders on their selling. So I would be careful with long positions for sure. We can see also on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map that we are starting to create a very big imbalance. All right. So right now you can see below us if you will start pushing down towards $67,000.
We will liquidate over $16 billion worth of for long positions. We will start pushing a similar way to the upside towards the next important resistance that I will be talking about that is sitting at around $99,000. We will equate only $2 billion. It's a huge imbalance right now, right?
And given that we understand the domino effect, the path of least resistance is right now to the downside, not to the upside. Does it mean that we cannot reclaim this resistance and continue to push towards the next important resistance that is sitting at $99,000?
It doesn't mean that we cannot do so, right? But it's much less probability. Definitely the ETFs there would need to be a new flow of money into the crypto market which might happen but as a professional traders we are not working with beliefs we are not working with I wish Bitcoin will continue to pump because that will make me rage right we are working with probabilities so right now the probability is
that there is much higher probability that we will see a rejection right so does it mean that we cannot push to the upside. It doesn't, right? But from the current perspective, what's going on behind the scenes, right? And what I see from the price action perspective at this moment until I see that the resistance right here at $88,000 will be reclaimed.
There is not much probability of pushing towards $99,000. All right. If we will reclaim this level right here, then the probability of pushing towards the next important resistance that is made out of two important Fibbral retracement levels 0.618 taken from the whole sequence from the $125,000 towards the swing low at $58,000.
All right, it's going to be right here at $99,000. And the second important Fibonacci retracement is the level 1.618. 618 that was previously working as a support right right here and then right here as a resistance. So extremely important level from Fibonacci retracement perspective and also from the previous historic price action as you can see right here beautifully it was working as a support and then right here you can see it
was working as a resistance right and right here and right here as well. So very important level if we will break that $88,000 next is $99,000. So let's take a look right now what we are actually creating from the price action development perspective because we see something behind the scenes what's happening that makes me bearish right but I will need to see some price action development confirmation before I will be confident
in entering high probability short position okay so before that happens let's take a look also what's happening on the weekly time frame because we were looking at the current price action right here as a formation of an ending diagonal. Right? But given that we are right now quite above the previous high that was created at $82,000, I've needed to recalculate the price action that I'm seeing right now.
So what we know about the price action from $121,000 is that it's going to be an impulse and it is an impulse still right by the way here you can see the 1.69 Fibonacci retracement level we have charted that back when Bitcoin was trading around $121,000 as a support.
So that is why it's going to be working right now as a strong resistance. Okay. But as you can see as Bitcoin hit that important level $121,000 we have shifted bearish right and we have started to project the price action toward $44,000 in those five subwaves.
So, so far we have created one two right here and then we thought first of all that the third wave wasn't an extended one but given the change in the price action right now I believe that the third wave is an extended one and thanks to that we can understand that since this was possible this was a possible ending diagonal that would work something like this if the price action wouldn't break
above the $82,000. It would continue like this, right? We understood the ending diagonal, all of the subwaves of it are corrective mode wave patterns, right? Corrective mode waves. So the same way, however, works the subwaves, most of the subwaves inside of the higher degree fourth wave, right?
So right now the price action support the bias new bias that this was indeed a corrective mode wave pattern awave. All right this was a corrective mode wave pattern Bwave and right now we are creating an impulse that is going to conclude the Cwave either right here at $88,000 if this is going to be reclaimed at $99,000.
All right, that's going to be my major target for the possible C-wave. Henceforth, there is a high probability that right now we are creating the fourth wave of our inputs and afterwards we will start pushing towards the exchange of the hand zone $44,000.
That is that is the lower boundary of this support zone. Upper boundary is at $55,000. Why is this zone so important? because it's going to be working similarly as the zone back in 2022 and in fact the zone in every single major bare market that we had in previous cycles, right?
Because what's happening in those exchange of the hand zones is that we have capitulation of some money on the one side and reaccumulation of that bitcoin on the other side. Right? So we can see on our net annualized profit and loss chart that since 2011 we went always during the bare markets through the capitulation.
All right. before we could resume the bull market. So what's happening during the capitulation is that the bad risk managers all right I'm calling it bad risk managers they are made out of institutions big whales etc that were not able to manage their risk well all right they will be put under a lot of pressure once the prices sustain below their buying baseline okay and they will be forced to liquidate in
a loss in order for their business to survive either or basically in order for them to have the money that they are needed to keep running their businesses or to survive etc. Okay, so as you can see every single time since 2011 before we could resume the macro bull market we needed to make those bad risk managements to capitulate and realize their losses.
And on the other side, we have seen every single time the smart money that were waiting exactly for this opportunity to reaccumulate aggressively. All right? So that's what's creating the exchange of the end zone. So a lot of bad risk managers are selling in a loss.
On the other side, the smart money are absorbing the selling pressure. So the price action slows down. It's not creating aggressive lower lows. All right? And that's what creates the bottoms, the macro bottoms, and then we can push to the new all-time highs.
Every single time it happened, every single time. And if you take a look right now at 2026, we were very close of going below the baseline level zero on our netized profit and loss chart. But we have not made those bad risk managements that are out there.
they are out there to capitulate and realize the losses. So you can see yourself since 2011 every single time we have went through this exchange of the hands period and 2026 bare market would be the first time where we wouldn't have the capitulation phase which you can agree probably with me is very low probably right and given that we are provisional traders we are working only with probabilities so I'm putting is
quite high probability that it's going to happen again given that we understand what's necessary to push us through all of those other important resistances that will be above us and once we start doing the price discovery rally, right? We need enough people to be able to push higher and higher and higher and higher.
But if we will have right now so much bag holders all right you can be sure once we start breaking above some important resistance or once we start entering at some important resistance right they will be taking profits right here right here and it will not let the price to continue higher because there is nobody else left to buy right so these capitulation phases are important at are actually healthy.
All right, for the crypto markets, for the crypto market cycles, so we can have the bullish rally, so we can have the bare markets. Okay, and every single cycle is healthy if there is this exchange of the hands. Always there is somebody that needs to lose so somebody else can win, right?
And the people that are losing every single time, all right, since 2011 are the ones that are not managing their well. Okay, so it's the game of survival. You need to focus not trying to get rich quick in the crypto markets like most of the people are suddenly you need to focus on being able to survive the next day, survive the next trade, right?
So then you will be able if you have edge in your trading strategy to consistently profit for years right not be profitable just for a few months make a tremendous amount of money right get hooked in the market and with this strategy that you have made a huge amount of money you will surely sooner or later lose everything and more right so the market is very smart in doing this like it's
very easy in crypto to make money what's hard is actually to keep your money long term, right? And stay profitable for long term. So that's why we are working with probabilities. And right now there is much lower probability of starting the new all-time high price discovery, then going through the necessary cycle of capitulation, right?
create the healthy macro bottom and then keep pushing to the upside because the ones that will capitulate right here when the economy starts getting better, they will be the ones that will help us to push through these resistances, right? Because they will they will buy again.
They will buy again. Once you are in the market, you are hooked. So, you will stay in the market and you will definitely take a look once you have money to get back in the market. Right? So it's very important to understand those kind of cycles and right now from this cyclical perspective it's telling us that this wasn't the bottom all right with the highest probability.
I might be wrong definitely and if we will start creating performance that will allow me to believe that the bulls are actually the ones that are pushing right now the market the smart money I mean are the ones that are pushing right now the market higher and higher.
I will be I will be starting to agree with the bulls that are right now calling for the bull market that okay even though it's a low probability for the first time since 2011 we don't need to have the capitulation phase there will be enough new money inflow into the market that will help us to push to the new all-time high and I will be okay with that.
So what is the confirmation that I would need for that? Well, I would need to have a confirmation from the price action development and also from the behind the scenes onchain data that we are watching order flow etc. Right? So from the price action development perspective what I would need to see right now is that this is actually not an impulse inside of a corrective mode wave Cwave but this is an
impulse of beginning of a higher degree third wave that might push us towards the new alltime high. How will I know that if that's either that this or that? By analyzing what's going to happen during next correction. Okay. So if this is just an impulse that is part of the C-wave and by the way if you don't know what I'm talking about you can visit our website microparadise.com and you will know
exactly what I'm talking about by looking at our article in MCP3 about the flat corrective wave pattern. Okay. And you will understand that this A B C structure where the C wave is a motive wave structure is a corrective wave pattern inside of the corrective wave structure on a harder degree.
Okay. So as you can see that would mean that right now we are creating the expandent flat. Okay. Where we have created the corrective A wave right here. corrective Bwave right here that went below the start of the Awave and right now we are creating the Cwave.
Okay, which is a motive wave structure that might finish right here. All right, given that we are on the lower time frame already have created a five wave to the upside which is the fifth of the fifth or if that's going to be an extended one which is a lower probability because the third wave was already an extended one.
uh we will finish at $99,000 with the highest probability. So what I'm waiting for right now this might be an impulse part of the corrective wave C wave of the hard degree fourth wave given that the third wave might have finished right here.
All right. And for that I then given that we understand that the next wave is going to be the fifth wave right which is an impulse. I will be looking to see how the correction happens. If it's going to be aggressive one impulse with increasement in volume etc.
It will increase the probability that we are creating fifth wave that will take us towards this exchange of the hand zone around $55 to $44,000. However, if this is an impulse that is starting the new bull market, okay, and it's the impulse that is part of the hard degree third wave.
All right, that will mean that we are right now watching the structure of the possible first wave. All right, and then I will be waiting for seeing the correction of the secondary wave. And if the secondary wave will be having the structure of corrective mode waves then I will say okay this is high probability bull market and I will start positioning myself during that right so the corrective wave right now is
extremely important for me how is it going to be if it's going to be aggressive and it will show me that the pairs are in control it will withd probability be a start of the final fifth wave that will take us towards $44,000 with the highest probability.
However, if it's going to have a structure of a corrective mode wave pattern like zigzag, ABC or like freewave structure variations thereof, right? Well, I will be looking to position myself into some nice uh I don't want to say like long positions, but uh like on the weekly time frame, I'm focusing on reaccumulation and distribution, right?
So, I will be looking to reaccumulate my bitcoins. you know that with paradis VIPs we have been distributing around $19,000 and around $121,000. We have been reaccumulating something back like at lower prices and right now I can tell you that we have been selling like earlier today even more bitcoins right now.
I can I can tell you that I can tell you that info. So, I'm waiting for the corrective mode wave structure, right? The corrective mode wave structure might finish if we are finishing the impulse right here at around $69,000. If we will finish it at that $99,000, the bullish structure of that impulse, it might finish at around $73,000.
Yeah, if it's going to be a deep correction, which usually the secondary waves are, it might go even to the bottom and the start of the first wave, which will take us back to around 58 $59,000. So definitely I'm not right now in a fear of missing out mode.
Okay? Because I know that if we are creating and entering the new bull market, I will have a great opportunity with the highest probability to reaccumulate lower. Okay. And I will keep you updated about that. So right now the price action development needs to show me that we are in a bull market.
Until then I'm still bearish on the macro time frame. On the daily time frame we can see the structure of the impulse. Right? What we know about the impulse is that if the third wave is an extended one, which it is in this in this particular scenario, it usually the first wave equals the height of the fifth wave.
All right. So the first wave created such a movement. Then we can put it to the bottom of the fourth wave and we can see that we are kind of if I put it exactly to that 15% we have already finished that 15%.
Okay. So this might be the top of the fifth wave. However, this is not the only guideline from the allot wave perspective. Again, if the fifth wave is going to be an extended one, we might really push towards that $99,000. On the weekly time frame, this the major next important resistance on the daily time frame.
You can see that my key high time frame resistance zone is already at around $97,000. So, I would be already looking at the price action slowing down right here at this resistance. All depends right now how we will be able to reclaim the 82,000 as you can see this was previously acting as a resistance right after we have broke above it with nice volume I will give bulls that feel right now
reclaim it and turn it into support we can continue higher okay but if I take a look on the 4hour time frame the structure of the fifth wave which we understand is a motive wave structure that needs to subdivide itself into five or smaller waves might be pretty well already created right here given that this was first, second, third, fourth and right now we are creating the fifth wave right but the
price action needs to needs to really confirm that so for a confirmation I'm right now waiting all right take a look at this shooting stock candlestick pattern that already give us some confidence we are having bearish diverence right here that gives us some confidence as you can see higher high on the price action lower high on the MACD histogram So that's creating bearish divergence.
The momentum is already slowing down. So the boosts are starting to lose fuel, right? You can imagine that like when car is going uphill and it's starting to like lose fuel. It's starting to get out of fuel. So the car is starting to slow down, right?
It's going fast in the beginning, then it starts to slow down because it's losing fuel. It doesn't have enough fuel and then the gravity starts to play out. So this is something what's right now happening to the price. As you can see the momentum is starting to like the price action is starting to lose the momentum.
So the gravity might start to play out. What from the professional trading perspective I am personally waiting for is uh that I want bulls to show me that they can control the price action and I want to see five moves to the downside.
All right. best if it would break during that the moving average trend line on the medium time frame. If that's going to happen, it will give me some data that with the probability we are beginning the first motive wave structure of a possible impulse.
All right. And I will be looking for entering a short position on a corrective mode wave structure on the opposite side. Yeah. So motive wave to the downside, corrective mode wave to the upside. If that's going to happen and I will see also that the momentum is slowing down.
All right. So the price action increasing but the the momentum and the volume is slowing down fading. Yeah. That will tell me all right the the bulls are not only losing power the fuel but also the participation. So that will increase the probability that the next big wave is going to be again to the downside.
Okay. So, I'll keep you updated about that in the next video, ladies and gentlemen, that I will record for you on Thursday. Until then, take care. Focus on professional trading strategies. Also, take a look at the cumulative volume delta, the spot. Yeah. So, take a look at this.
Here we have got a divergence, right? That was a bullish divergence since I was focusing on like I was bearish right here at this structure during this consolation. I wasn't much focusing on the bullish signals. So it was visible but I have not been paying too much attention to it.
We have created lower low on the price action, higher low on the cumulative volume delta. So the smart money on the spot were not supporting this downside. But take a look at this. Right now the price action has created a higher high but the cumulative volume delta after big offloading right here is not creating a horror high.
So this is a clear divergence and given that we can see that the open interest is very much supporting the price action we can assume that the current price action right here is driven by leverage not by smart money. As you can see the smart money is having divergence with the price action which suggests that the smart money are not really supporting this price action which is decreasing the probability Calm breath,
clear eyes. Work done now. Right. No rush, no drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. M clean set
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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