$36M Whale Shorts Bitcoin: Will BTC Squeeze Him?

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There is a mysterious crypto whale that has just opened a Bitcoin short position worth $36 [music] million. He will get liquidated if Bitcoin pushes towards $65,500. What are the probabilities? >> [music] >> Are we about to push higher or is Bitcoin about to crash?

Let's analyze. >> My Crypto Paradise [music] >> Hello ladies and gentlemen, this is Ammon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here today. It's Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. So, in the previous video, we were looking at Bitcoin and we have seen that we are creating higher highs on the price action and as we are going to the upside, we are

pushing towards those sell walls above us. Together with that, not only the price action been increasing, but also the open interest. Especially on this candle, we have seen that the open interest really increased extremely and we have seen that actually a lot of emotions are behind it because on the cumulative volume delta, we have seen that we are really showing a lot of aggressiveness from the buying pressure.

So, all of this really supported the buyers given that we have also seen that the long squeeze probability is going to our magical number 20 and the fear and greed index is still concentrating between 60 and 40 and been pushing towards that 60 that the longs are getting crowded and the probability of a long squeeze are increasing.

It's really interesting since July, since we know that we are concentrating in a very tight zone, the numbers of 20 on the the funding rates on our website My Crypto Paradise together with confluencing with 60 or 40 on our fear and greed index are really working together how they are synergizing well that it can really increase the probabilities of a reversal, right?

So, if you are going close to 40 and we are having a squeeze probability reaching towards the number 20 on our funding rates, it's working as a reversal signal and the opposite when we are pushing towards 60 on the Fear & Greed Index and the long squeeze probability goes towards that number 20 on our funding rates, it's really again suggesting a reversal.

So, obviously, this might change, but we are in summer, right? So, during summer, we understand that the liquidity in the markets, not only globally in the past 3 years, we are at all-time low of trading activity. So, the liquidity is basically non-existent in the markets right now, but also we are at summer, right?

So, it decreases it even more and you can see that really we are trading inside of this tight range. Not much bias be it a fear or a greed is going on in the market. So, henceforth, we are no longer taking in consideration that much the number 20 and 80 as we have been doing previously before the summer, right?

But, 60 and 40 are the new magical numbers until these trends end, right? So, after we have got that squeeze probability towards that 20, you can see that we have dropped, right? So, around that 20 that equals that long space around 9.20% per year to short positions, it dropped.

Right now, we are at around 4.38% per year. But, still we can see that the positive funding is there. So, still a lot of long positions are in the markets. And today, we will be talking about if there's a higher probability of Bitcoin continuing in this price action to the downside and we can crash even further or if we can get back above the zone and start pushing higher.

Well, right now what we can see the long squeeze probability on Bitcoin is at 10% and we are getting to the number 10 from the Fear & Greed Index. So, there are no synergies, right? The long squeeze probability is still there. There is no short squeeze probability.

So, right now actually still there's a higher probability that we will see much more downside and the price action is actually confirming that as well until we can reclaim this zone back. The probabilities are suggesting given that we have already touched the low of the E wave right here, which is at that $62,500 that we were looking at the previous video.

If we will start reclaiming that into a resistance because right now as you can see it's acting perfectly as a support. This level is really important because as I have told you in the previous video, if we will reclaim it, then the probabilities of going towards our buying area zone at around 61 to 59,000 dollars is extremely extremely increased by then after we get that reclaim.

So, right now however, we have already some early signs. We are already below this zone. You can see since the beginning of July we are just doing almost nothing, right? We are zigzagging around this zone, which is at 63,000 dollars, ladies and gentlemen.

But right now really what's interesting here is watching the volume. So, you know for a successful reclaim of any zone, of any important level and right now we are below three important levels, all right? We are below the moving average trend line. We are below this historic price action zone and we are also below the huge VPVR, the volume profile activity, okay?

So, all of these things acting as a resistance for the Bitcoin price. And given that, we can see on the volume, as we were starting to break below this zone, we have been increasing in volume. All right, so the participation started to increase.

Right now, as we are trying to reclaim those zones, those levels, the volume is actually declining. As you can see, this is the bullish volume right now, which suggests that there's a higher probability that the reclaim will be successful. It's not a trading signal for me, at least for a short right at this time, all right?

But, it's just increasing the probabilities that we might start pushing much lower, right? As you know, in the Parallax team, we are doing many different trading tactics. So, in scalping, we have created some short position. We are in a short position. But, here in these videos, I'm telling you just about this like swing trading opportunities what I'm seeing from the swing and macro perspective.

So, at this moment, all right? For me, the most important zone of interest is a still around that 61 to 59,000. I will be seeing that as a buying opportunity for a long position. You know that we have been already accumulating with Parallax VIPs around 61,000, right?

Since on the daily time frame, we are bullish, we do expect that 79,000 will will be reached before we will start pushing lower. On the weekly time frame, we are bearish. You know that since 121,000, I'm predicting 44,000 will be touched before we can start pushing towards the new all-time high, 169,000.

So, on the weekly time frame, I'm still bearish, but the pattern suggests that we will be doing the move to the downside in this kind of price action. So, I would like to see a push higher before we go lower, all right? So, that is why on the daily time frame the market structure is a still bullish, all right?

Even though from the momentum indicators we are already getting bearish signals as we have understood from the previous videos, right? But right here around that 61 to 59,000 dollars, for me I will be treating that as a buying opportunity if you I will get enough confirmations that we have ended the wave this wave this possible wave if this first wave is already finished in a corrective motive structure.

For me this will be a buying opportunity in anticipation of catching the third wave, okay? So, right now ladies and gentlemen, is there something bullish at this moment on the medium time frame? Well, for me not much, right? So, we have created lower low on the price action, lower low also on the histogram, as you can see.

Some people might say it's equal low, but no, it's lower low. Even though the slope is not that aggressive, but it's lower low. RSI also created lower low and we might have a reclaim of that RSI trendline right now. We will be retesting that, so it's confluence with the price action kind of and the stochastic RSI, yes, we are looking with the both legs right now to the upside and we are

entering this zone, you know, that usually when we do this it suggests that the bulls can start taking over, but it's just one piece of the puzzle, right? To get rid of that, you need to understand that the world is fat tailed, okay?

So, I would rather miss a trade than risk my capital unnecessarily. That is why I'm really working on patience all the time. Since I'm doing this crypto trading since 2016, I always trying to just avoid to get absolutely wrecked, right? So, if you have read the the books from Nicholas Taleb, right?

The Antifragile or black swan, you know exactly what I'm talking about you. If you want to be successful in the long run, and I'm talking not about few months, I'm talking about 5-10 years in trading, okay? You need to be setting up your trading strategy and always preparing yourself for these kind of rare moments, okay?

That most of the people think that will never happen and it actually happens more often that people like think, okay? So, the word is fat-tailed. These kind of rare events are happening and if your strategy is not prepared for it, you might be profitable for 1-2 years, then the rare event happens, right?

It might be any direction and if you are not prepared for it, you will get absolutely wrecked. So, my focus is on survivor, always, 100%. That is why I am being patient and I'm only entering the highest probability trade setups with the greatest risk reward, because I know it's not about single setup, right?

I'm not in a casino where I'm waiting for my jackpot. It's about basically the process, entering the positions that have higher percentage of having a positive outcome on my side and if I keep repeating those setups over a period of large sequences, right?

The law of large numbers will start to play out and with my edge on my side that I'm keeping on my side, I will be profitable. So, I'm looking for to follow the process and not focusing on the outcome. Thanks to that, I can survive in the markets with my defensive approach and also I am placing my trades the way that I'm positioning myself for the luck potential, right?

So, that is why I understand like here will be a great opportunity. I will be able to place my stop loss quite tight because the invalidation of that market structure is going to be quite close to the entry price and the upward potential, the reward potential is much higher, right?

So, basically, if I keep doing it this way, okay, I'm not going to every time make it until the last target, but it's just enough if I put myself in this kind of luck opportunity few times with a great process behind it, so I don't get wrecked in the process in the meantime, right?

And few times I just need to go through this this winning streak, I'm basically all right. I'm basically can be profiting, right? From the markets. So, it's really about setting up the strategy. So, you with the kind of understanding that the world is fat-tailed.

Ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated again on Tuesday, all right? So, keep attention right now on this zone. If we will retest it, all right? And we will hold below it, and then we'll start moving to the downside, I will turn this into red color and this will be this will be a resistance, okay?

But definitely right now I would not be longing this. I don't see below us any important support until 61 to 59,000. There is right now we are trading at 63,000. This we are right now potentially there's high probability of that that we are turning it into a resistance given that volume, okay?

And given that understanding of what's going on behind the scenes. So, right now much higher probability is that this will be holding as a resistance and we will start trading lower. So, actually the whale that I have shared with you in the intro that opened the short position on Bitcoin, I don't think that it's a it's a such a bad idea.

Well, he didn't get the timing is not the best for him. The timing like entering the short position right here, that's not the best timing. His risk reward is not the greatest as well. All right, because he has a stop loss right 65,500.

So, yeah, it's about this ascending trend line. It's above this VPVR level. All right, but look at this. All right, so he's risking around 4% without leverage. And the next important support is at 3%. All right, so that's not even one to one.

I don't like it. I would not take it like this. The timing is not good, ladies and gentlemen. All right. The timing is not good. The timing is not good. So, short position entering right here not beneficial for me. Long position below potential resistance.

You can answer yourself that that's probably not the kind of system you should be following, right, as well. Longing below resistance, that's much often end up as a bad idea to do so. So, patience is right now needed. If you have not been timing it before some some positions, ladies and gentlemen, you know, that we were talking about this being a potential fake out until reclaim.

So, we have not got the reclaim, and we started to push below it with a great aggressiveness. Rising volume right now we are having declining volume. The volume is fading on the price action pushing towards a resistance. The probabilities are increasingly telling us that there might be a next push lower until we can reclaim this zone back into support.

If we will reclaim this zone back into a support, then we might continue to go higher, all right? And given that we have actually not broke the structure, the bullish structure on the 4-hour time frame just yet, since we have not closed a candle, not even a candle, we have not even reclaimed the E wave, all right, the low of the E wave just yet, which is the hard degree fourth wave.

So, if you will reclaim this zone, ladies and gentlemen, there is a high probability that we might be continuing inside of that ending diagonal that we covered in the previous video, and we might be pushing towards $69,000. Where, again, from a swing trading perspective, I will be interested into creating some short positions.

This will be a great level to look into short positions. But, until this zone is being reclaimed, the probabilities right now suggest much more that we will have a continuation to the downside. Okay? So, pay attention to this zone, ladies and gentlemen. On the low time frame, it's exactly at $63,266, and the upper boundary of this zone is at $63,670.

Ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated again in the next video on Tuesday. Until then, take care, uh trade safe, and uh trade with a professional trading strategy. Cheers. >> Calm, bruh. Clear eyes. Work done. Now ride. No rush. No dread. [music] Right time for snap.

Clean setup. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. >> [music] >> Clean setup.