In short: In this session Simon reads Bitcoin as sitting on strong support at 64 to 65,000, with 63,000 (the 0.618 Fibonacci level) as the deeper floor. He leans toward a near-term relief pump before any lower move, citing a large bullish hammer on the 4-hour, a daily MACD bullish cross and an RSI reclaim. Fear and Greed is near 20 while funding rates are only starting to turn positive, and the 4-hour long-squeeze probability reads about 15 percent. He is not yet taking high-probability shorts, and treats 67,000 as the resistance that was rejected.
Where does Simon say Bitcoin support is right now?
Simon places support at the 64 to 65,000 zone, which he says is holding nicely so far on the 4-hour. Below that, he flags 63,000 as strong support, formed by the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement stacking with 0.786 levels from two prior wave structures.
Why does the 64 to 65,000 zone matter?
He calls it a multi-confluence level: the ascending trend line of his channel, the previous high of the first move up, and the VPVR all meet there. Because several signals point to the same price, he treats a hold as more probable than a clean break down.
Is the crash about to continue or can Bitcoin bounce?
Simon leans toward a bounce first. He argues the bears failed to push meaningful volume on the move down, while bulls showed strength defending support. He is not fully sold that the correction is finished, so he expects possible sideways chop before the next leg up.
Simon reads funding-rate positioning and long-squeeze probability live in this session. You can track the same funding data yourself on the MCP Crypto Funding Rates page to see when the market leans crowded long or short.
What do the funding rates tell Simon here?
Funding is heating up but only mildly positive, meaning some traders are starting to lean long again. Earlier, funding was very negative while sentiment was fearful, which he called a high-probability long setup. Now it is closer to neutral and warming, a more mixed read.
Does he expect a long squeeze?
Not an aggressive one. On the 4-hour, Simon puts the probability of a high-intensity long squeeze at only about 15 percent for Bitcoin. So even with funding turning positive, he does not see a violent flush of over-leveraged longs as the base case right now.
What is the Fear and Greed Index showing?
The index is near 20, which Simon treats as an extreme reading when it lines up with important support. People are fearful, he notes, but the funding rates show they are not heavily acting on that fear by shorting, unlike the earlier very-negative funding phase.
Which signals is Simon watching on the daily and 4-hour?
On the daily he cites a MACD histogram bullish cross and an RSI trend-line reclaim on rising volume. On the 4-hour he points to a large bullish hammer candlestick and an early, unconfirmed bullish divergence between price and the MACD histogram.
What confirms the bullish divergence for him?
Simon wants at least three declining momentum bars on the 4-hour MACD histogram first. A stronger confirmation is the blue line crossing above the red line, the same cross he says preceded the earlier move from 60,000 up toward 67,000.
What is the RSI reclaim checklist?
He describes a three-step reclaim: a breakout on strong volume, a retest with declining volume, then a hold as support. He says a single daily close with RSI turning up after that retest would put the reclaim near 90 percent probability in his read.
Why is 67,000 the key resistance?
Simon marks 67,000 as strong resistance where price was rejected, tied to a 1.618 Fibonacci extension and other confluences he has covered before. He frames the recent drop as the market building the next corrective move after that rejection, not a fresh trend down.
How does this fit Simon’s bigger-picture Bitcoin view?
On the weekly, Simon says the 82,000 push was a fake-out above a moving-average trend line, which set up the drop. He has flagged a top read since 121,000 and names 44,000 as his long-term bottom target. He skips the weekly detail here to stay on the 4-hour.
What wave structure does he think Bitcoin is in?
Simon describes an ending diagonal on the higher degree. He believes the market is forming a corrective structure, likely a triangle with five smaller waves, and wants to watch price, volume and momentum near the apex before calling the next impulsive push up.
What did the trading side do in this session?
Simon says the ParadiseFamily VIP group closed a Bitcoin long entered near 62,000, taking target two around 67,000 at a strategic level to account for sell walls. On altcoins, XLM hit target two and neared target three as Bitcoin dominance dropped and liquidity rotated.
Why does he say altcoins are getting attention?
Because Bitcoin dominance fell sharply, Simon expects liquidity to flow from Bitcoin into stronger altcoins. He stresses this means movement and tradability in both directions, from swing and day-trading angles, not a promise of one-way upside.
What is Simon’s stance going into the weekend?
He is protecting existing long setups and is not yet entering high-probability shorts. Until price breaks the support zone on strong volume, he expects the 63 to 65,000 area to hold and the next meaningful structure to form to the upside before any deeper move.
What does he say about risk sizing?
Simon ties position aggression to probability: the higher the edge, the more risk he is willing to take, and the lower the edge, the smaller. He argues understanding how big the edge is, not just that one exists, is the core of long-term consistency.
What would change Simon’s read?
A decisive break below the support zone on strong bearish volume would flip him. He notes the first push in a real reversal usually carries volume above the moving-average volume line; because the bears have not shown that, he still favors the bounce case for now.
Key levels Simon named this session
- Support zone: 64 to 65,000, holding so far on the 4-hour.
- Deeper support: 63,000, the 0.618 Fibonacci and 0.786 confluence.
- Resistance: 67,000, the rejection level with a 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
- Weekly context: 82,000 fake-out, 121,000 top read, 44,000 long-term bottom target.
Frequently asked questions
What price is Bitcoin support according to this video?
Simon puts near-term support at 64 to 65,000 on the 4-hour, holding so far. He marks 63,000 as deeper strong support, where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement stacks with 0.786 levels from two earlier wave structures, plus the ascending trend line and VPVR.
Does Simon expect a bounce or more downside?
He leans toward a relief bounce first. His reasons are weak bearish volume on the drop, a large bullish hammer on the 4-hour, a daily MACD bullish cross and an RSI reclaim. He is not fully convinced the correction is over, so sideways chop is possible before the next leg up.
What do funding rates and Fear and Greed show here?
Fear and Greed sits near 20, an extreme fear reading. Funding rates are only mildly positive and heating up, so traders are just starting to lean long again, less one-sided than the earlier very-negative phase. On the 4-hour, Simon reads the long-squeeze probability at about 15 percent.
What is the resistance level Simon watches?
He marks 67,000 as strong resistance where Bitcoin was rejected, tied to a 1.618 Fibonacci extension and other confluences. He treats the move down after that rejection as a corrective structure rather than the start of a fresh downtrend.
What confirmation does Simon want before turning bullish?
On the 4-hour he wants at least three declining MACD histogram bars, then a bullish cross where the blue line crosses above the red. On the daily, a single close with RSI turning up after a low-volume retest would, in his read, push the reclaim toward 90 percent probability.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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