Bitcoin bull market peak signals: the cycle top risk dashboard
Everyone shows the same five cycle-top charts with thresholds curve-fit to dead cycles. Each bitcoin cycle has topped at a lower reading than the last, so a fixed line like Puell above four or Mayer above two stopped firing. This dashboard reads the same famous metrics as per-cycle percentiles, then answers the honest question with history: when the cycle looked like it does now, how often did a deep drawdown, a new high, or a miner capitulation follow. Every number is a historical frequency with a wide band, never a call.
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Cycle Top Risk estimated
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estimated chance bitcoin falls 25% or more from here within 90 days, when the cycle looked like this
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Cycle heat
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the average of the five component percentiles, where 100 is the hottest the cycle has ever run
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For context
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bitcoin’s plain rate of a 25% drawdown within any 90 days across the whole record since 2011, with no cycle condition. The read above is measured against this baseline.
The classic signals, graded
Each famous metric shown as its own percentile within four years of its own history, so an extreme still reads as extreme even though every cycle tops lower than the last. The classic threshold is marked, but the reading is the percentile.
The Puell reading is fee-inclusive (miner revenue, not issuance alone) so it stays meaningful as fees grow. Hash Ribbons below one means the 30-day hashrate has crossed under the 60-day, the on-chain footprint of miners switching machines off.
New-High Odds estimated
Estimated chance bitcoin prints a new all-time high within each window, from historical analogs of where it sits versus its record and its trend. Hover a window to see how it was read.
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Miner Capitulation estimated
Miners run fixed fiat costs against a coin income. When margins break, the weakest switch machines off, which the Hash Ribbons see as an inversion.
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Price through the cycle
The cycle history is still building.
Hover any point on the chart: it lights every past day whose five cycle-component percentiles read like that day and counts what history did over the next ninety days. Click a lit point to travel there.
Bitcoin’s price on a log scale, colored by the cycle heat at each point (the average of the five component percentiles). Add a component to overlay its own percentile with its historic hot zone; switch range and resolution; drag to pan and scroll to zoom into any cycle. The rhyme finder matches on the same five percentiles shown as dials above, so it reads the cycle the way the headline does. Source: Bitcoin Research Kit (bitview.space) price, blockchain.info hashrate and miner revenue, from 2011. Cycle heat is a percentile blend, not a forecast.
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What we will and will not put a number on
The five components, their percentiles and the price chart are measured facts, read straight from the chain and the market. Those are the page, and they are not up for debate.
Cycle Top Risk, New-High Odds and Miner Capitulation are honest frequencies from history: we find the closest past states to today and count what followed, in the spirit of “in this many of that many similar states, a deep drawdown came next”. We print them estimated and with a wide band on purpose. Bitcoin has only four completed cycles, so the closest analogs cluster into a handful of independent episodes, and the band shows exactly how much we do and do not know. Nobody can call the top: it is unknowable with four samples. What history can say is how often a state like this preceded a 25% fall, a new high, or a miner capitulation. That is what these numbers are, and they are never advice.
Cycle metrics, defined
Mayer Multiple
The Mayer Multiple is bitcoin’s price divided by its 200-day moving average, a simple gauge of how stretched price is above or below its long trend. A high multiple has historically marked overheated advances, a low one deep value.
Pi Cycle Top
The Pi Cycle Top compares the 111-day moving average to twice the 350-day moving average. The two only converge when price has gone parabolic, so it reads as a blow-off velocity detector rather than a prophecy.
Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple is daily miner revenue divided by its own yearly average, a measure of how far miner income sits above or below trend. Low readings squeeze the weakest miners into forced selling; high readings mark income-rich euphoria phases.
Hash Ribbons
Hash Ribbons compare the 30-day and 60-day averages of network hashrate. When the 30-day crosses below the 60-day, machines are powering off, the clearest public footprint of miner capitulation. The recovery cross has historically marked the end of forced selling.
Cycle top
A cycle top is the peak of a bitcoin bull market before a major drawdown. Tops are unknowable in advance with only four completed cycles, so MyCryptoParadise reads cycle risk as the historical frequency of a 25% drawdown from states like today, printed with a wide band rather than a fixed call.
The cycle is the backdrop. The flows are the move.
This dashboard tells you how stretched or cheap the cycle is and what history did from here. To see who is acting on it, read the on-chain valuation, the ETF flow tide and the funding squeeze alongside it. These reads are context, not forecasts.
For the ParadiseTeam, knowing where bitcoin sits in its own cycle is one of the layers behind every decision we make, and every trade we share inside ParadiseFamilyVIP. Seats stay deliberately limited.
Check seat availability →How to read the cycle dashboard
Four ideas behind the picture above.
Percentiles beat fixed lines
Every cycle tops at a lower reading than the last, so a fixed line like Puell above four went silent. Reading each metric as a percentile of its own recent history keeps an extreme meaning extreme.
The number is drawdown risk, not a top call
Cycle Top Risk is the chance of a 25% fall within 90 days from a state like today. It can be high near a euphoric top or near a capitulation, so read it with the cycle heat and the phase beside it.
Miners are the forced actor
Miners have fixed costs and a coin income. When margins break they must sell and then switch off, which the Hash Ribbons record. That is the one genuinely forced flow in this dashboard.
Wide bands are honesty, not weakness
With four completed cycles the honest sample is small, so the bands are wide and the tier is estimated. A number that hid its uncertainty would be the dishonest one.