In short: Simon and the ParadiseTeam stay bearish across daily and weekly time frames. He turned bearish at $79,000, targets a drop to $72,000 for the fourth wave, then a truncated fifth toward $58,000 and eventually $44,000. He compares current retail behavior to 2022 and says real capitulation has not happened yet.
Why did Simon turn bearish on Bitcoin?
Track it live: our crypto liquidation heatmap updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
Simon turned bearish on the daily time frame after months of being bullish. He had targeted a push from $61,000 to $79,000. Once price touched $79,000 it printed a shooting star candlestick. For the ParadiseTeam, that marked a likely end of the third wave.
Price now sits below the moving average trend line and below the previous low of $77,700 on the medium time frame. Simon stays bearish on the medium time frame too. The earlier squeeze above the previous high did its job by liquidating aggressive short sellers.
What price targets does the video give?
The video maps a staged move lower. Simon expects a fourth wave toward $72,000, then a truncated fifth that completes an impulse or ending diagonal. That formation would be his confirmation for a short, targeting prices below $58,000, with $44,000 as the deeper weekly objective.
On the weekly, Simon has been bearish for over a year, turning bearish at $19,000 as the major bull market ended. He called the move to $44,000 from there. If you are sizing positions around these levels, his approach to capital preservation stays front of mind.
He labels the rally off the lows a corrective wave, an expanded flat, not a new bull market. The move to the magical number $121,000 was the B wave. The following C wave heads toward the 55,000 to 44,000 reaccumulation zone. More Bitcoin analysis breakdowns track how this develops.
How does this compare to the 2022 bottom?
Simon says the current market rhymes with 2022, but the capitulation has not happened yet. In every previous bear market bottom since 2011, big holders and Bitcoin mining companies realized their losses below the zero watermark. His net annualized profit and loss chart shows that flush is still missing.
He points out Michael Saylor sold only 33 bitcoins. Some miners went bankrupt and some exchanges went bust, yet most institutions had already sold earlier. That is why Simon stays skeptical about calling this a bottom without more confirmation.
The retail demand chart shows a similar fractal to 2022. Retail printed a massive higher high in demand while price made a lower high. Last time that setup appeared, it preceded a crash of around 27 to 28 percent.
What short-term signals is Simon watching?
On the 4-hour chart Simon flags a warning for aggressive longs. Open interest is rising while spot cumulative volume delta is already selling. Funding is positive and touching the plus 10 level, which has historically preceded a squeeze lower over the past year.
He reads this as retail getting aggressively long, giving smart money the liquidity to distribute. You can track the same positioning signals on the crypto funding rates board. A drop toward $72,000 looks like the higher probability near term.
Simon stresses that the team stays adaptive. If the market proves the bias wrong, they will position with bullish tactics instead of staying stubborn. The next update lands Tuesday.
Frequently asked questions
What is Simon’s Bitcoin bias right now?
Simon is bearish on the daily, medium and weekly time frames. He turned bearish on the daily after touching $79,000 and has been bearish weekly for over a year since $19,000. He expects lower prices unless the market reclaims key structure and proves his bias wrong first.
What is the downside target for Bitcoin?
Simon expects a fourth wave toward $72,000, then a truncated fifth. That formation would confirm a short targeting below $58,000. On the weekly, his deeper objective is the 55,000 to 44,000 reaccumulation zone, with $44,000 flagged as an important level like $79,000 was on the way up.
Why is Simon skeptical this is the bottom?
Because capitulation has not happened. In every bear market bottom since 2011, large holders and miners realized their losses below zero on his net annualized profit and loss chart. Michael Saylor sold only 33 bitcoins, and most institutions had already sold earlier, so that flush is still missing.
What does the 2022 comparison mean for retail?
Retail demand just printed a massive higher high while price made a lower high, the same fractal seen in 2022. Last time that setup appeared, price crashed around 27 to 28 percent. Simon warns this reflects emotional buying that often gives market makers the liquidity to distribute.
What should aggressive long traders watch?
Simon warns aggressive longs on the 4-hour chart. Open interest is rising while spot selling shows in cumulative volume delta. And funding is positive near plus 10, a level that has historically preceded a squeeze lower. He sees a drop toward $72,000 as the higher probability near term.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Crypto traders are coming back to the market, but there are clear similarities in behavior to what we saw in 2022, right before Bitcoin's final drop to around $15,500 before the next major bull market. So, what are the chances of another big drop from here?
[music] Let's analyze my cryptoiseise. [music and singing] Hello ladies and gentlemen. This is Amon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is a Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. So we will touch at this.
But first of all, let's describe what we talked about in the previous videos. So on the daily time frame for multiple months, we were bullish. We have understood that with the probability we will start pushing from $61,000 towards $79,000. after that happened as you can see we have touched that $79,000 I have turned I have turned bearish okay so I'm bearish on daily time frame after multiple months being bullish on the
daily time frame I'm bearish on the daily time frame and in the last video we also spoke about medium time frame right that was the last video and we have understood that with the high probability we will have some squeeze to the upside because we need to liquidate some aggressive sellers and then we can start pushing to the downside and with the high probability towards this support zone.
This is from swing trading perspective. Okay. So let's take a look what happened right here. So as you can see we have continued to squeeze to the upside above the previous high which seems to be enough to liquidate those short sellers. It was enough to liquidate those short sellers.
And right now right now we are already below the moving average trend line. We are below the previous low of $77,700 on the medium time frame. Well, and I can just tell you that still I'm bearish on the medium time frame. And with the highest probability, we continue we will continue to go down towards $72,000.
That's my target zone for that fourth wave. All right? Aka lower degree Cwave. And then with the high probability we will conclude the truncated fifth and then we can really change the trend on the high time frame from bullish to bearish in terms of price action.
Okay. So this might be this might be the end of the third wave. As you can see once we have touched the $79,000 we have already created the shooting star candlestick pattern. And with the fourth wave, we might be touching that moving average trend line around that 73 $72,000 on the daily time frame.
Then we will create the truncated fifth with the highest probability that will give me a nice formation of an impulse or an ending diagonal. That will be my confirmation for a short and I will be targeting prices below $58,000. And when I say below that take me to weekly time frame because you know that on the weekly time frame I'm bearish for a very long time right for more than a year
as you know for me I have turned bearish already at $19,000 right here because that was the end of the major bull market that we have experienced together since 2022. Right? So for me the major bull market already finished right here at $19,000 and then I've started to call for $44,000 from here already.
Then we have started to crash and then we had one more corrective rally and corrective rally was really important understanding of this because a lot of people once we broke above the previous high started to call for crazy numbers like 200 300 400k for Bitcoin and that was the trap right because this was just a corrective wave of higher degree corrective wave pattern that we have understood is an expanded flat Right.
The same expanded flat that we have spectated right here on the daily time frame. However, this was a bullish one on the weekly time frame is the bearish one and is because it's still going. It has not finished just yet. Because then once we have touched our magical number 121,000, we have understood that with the probability we need to start push to the downside the corrective Bwave.
This one finished and then we have understood all right C-wave with the highest probability starting five subwaves in this C-wave and it will take us towards 55 to $44,000 and we have already touched almost our aggressive reaccumulation zone 55 to 44,000 but for me it's not enough and for me it's not enough it doesn't mean that we have not touched important level we have touched like with the $58,000 on Twitter It's
circulating right a lot that we have been touching very important levels at that $58,000 but a lot of people are forgetting that levels are not as important as context in the market. Okay. So it's wonderful that we have touched that important level $58,000.
But what about a context? What actually happened during that behind the scenes? like a lot of people now calling that the bare market is over and the bull market has started. I would be a little bit more patient. I would be probably a little bit more patient for more confirmations and I would be a little bit skeptic about that as well because we understand that the context is extremely important.
So what actually happened right here? Did something similar what we have been seeing back in 22 or back in 2018 bare markets happened? Well, if you take a look at my net annualized profit and loss, we can see that something very important has not happened just yet.
So if you take a look at the previous bare markets and how the bottom has been created since 2011, we can see that every single time the institutions and the individuals with a lot of bitcoins, especially bitcoin mining companies, they needed to capitulate.
That means they needed to realize their losses and somebody else on the other side needed to absorb that selling pressure. Right? So far we can see that we have went close to recapitulation but Michael Syler sold only 33 bitcoins. It's not enough. It's not enough.
There were some bitcoin mining companies going bankrupt. There were some crypto exchanges going bust. But if you really take a look behind the scenes, you actually understand that those institutions, most of them, they already sold their Bitcoin before. Okay. in a loss. It's not really adding to the fire of creating this beautiful net analyze and profit and loss chart below the zero watermark capitulation which we have seen in every single previous
bare market bottoms every single time. So a lot of institutions and bitcoin mining companies are holding their losses but it's one thing to have a loss and another to realize your loss. All right. And we are waiting and the smart money are waiting for those companies to start realizing their losses.
Okay. So they can absorb the selling pressure by buying that right. So one one party is selling the other party is absorbing that selling pressure. What's happening with the price? The price action is slowing down. Right? And then we can start having the new bull market.
So the capitulation has not happened just yet and in every single bare market before previously it has happened. Okay. So I would be a little bit skeptic about calling this a bottom. Doesn't mean that there cannot be a change right as you know the history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes but it can be completely something different.
But at least I would wait for some confirmations. So at least proper reclaim of this moving average trend line on the weekly time frame or confirmation that from the alert wave price action perspective the fivewave sequence is really finished which isn't right. So what we know about the final fifth wave first of all the fourth wave finished right here at $82,000 right and then we have understood okay since the third wave
has not been the extended one based on the guidelines the fifth wave should be right. So we have understood that the pattern of that fifth wave because of the context will be with D probability an ending diagonal. So ending diagonal subdivides itself into five smaller waves right and all of those five subwaves are corrective wave patterns.
So if this is correct we have already created the first wave right here. Right now we are creating the secondary corrective wave right here which is the expanded flat. Well and unless we can reclaim the previous high by having a breakout and retest of the previous resistance and turning it into a support that will tell us that there is very high probability that the bare market is over because we will change
the market structure. But at this moment the market structure is still bearish. Right? The market structure is still very much bearish and following our price action development that we have charted and predicted many months ago already. Okay. So right now the probability suggests that we will start pushing to the downside creating the third wave of that ending diagonal.
Then we will have a retest of that moving average trend line and then final push towards that $44,000 with the highest probability which is as important level as $79,000 has been right here during the rally to the upside. So ladies and gentlemen, I'm still bearish on the weekly time frame.
And if we take a look, we have touched this a little bit in the previous video, but let's understand that the markets are being created by not logical thinking, but by emotional thinking. Okay? Even though we have right now a lot of bots in the market, etc.
Those bots still are acting on what happened in the past. They are following some patterns, some some indicators, etc. And still most of the those indicators and those patterns are created by humans. All right? And still most of the participants in the market are still humans.
Like for example, we in the paradise team, we are using AI a lot to gather more data. But the conclusion of the trading decision we still do ourselves because AI cannot be profitable. It doesn't understand. it cannot get this kind of holistic picture of the market context because as a professional trader you need to be able to adapt like a water all right to the market environment.
So when you then set up an AI and tell AI all right so you will be following MACD RSI and cumulative volume delta and open interest and if this happens and this happens and this happens together you will call this and this and if this happens with this you will call this and this so that might work for some time but then the market shifts right and the AI doesn't understand that
it needs to adapt okay it doesn't understand that it needs to adapt because it needs creative thinking. It needs creative thinking. First of all, you need to be able to predict the changes and for that you need to be thinking creatively and then creatively adapt your trading strategy based on that.
AI is perfect at gathering data, calculating and like calculating probabilities etc. But it's not good at creative thinking. Humans are good at creative thinking. We have the ideas. Okay? And that's why humans will always be the creators of the markets. And because we understand that humans are emotional human beings, all right, they are emotional beings.
We can actually check some data and understand what happened in the past with the highest probability will happen in the future as well. Because our brains are developed by thousands and thousands of years of basically the environment we live in, right? And that's not going to change in the next couple of next thousands of years.
So we can assume that what happened in the past will happen in the future in the human behavior with the highest probability. So if you [snorts] take a look and for that it's important to watch this chart retail investor demand. Okay. Because on that you can really nicely because institutional investors are usually like uh much better at controlling their emotions etc.
But when you take a look at just the retail investor as in a sandbox, you can actually check some patterns and then when you can see some fractals, you can actually predict what's going to with the highest probability happen next. It's not a certaintity, right?
But it's just another indicator that can increase or decrease probability of the bias that you have already concluded in the market. So if we take a look back in 2020 and we will be talking about the cycle right here. Okay, this cycle right here.
So what happened with the retailed demand? First of all, what happened with the price action? So the price action touched very important level, right? Very very important level. So if you take a look, it was the previous low right here. What happened right now?
We have touched the previous low as well, right? Right here. What happened with the retail demand? Let's take a look. And we can see once we have touched that low once again right here, the demand spiked even more. So we have created a higher high on the retail demand.
Okay? So a lot of people started to reaccumulate and then very aggressively on this next high which wasn't higher than the previous high by the way. Okay. The retail demand created a huge massive higher high much higher than the previous high. Okay. So higher high after higher high after higher high.
What the price action created? So the spike the spike triggered right here on this low spike in retail demand this low and then huge spike in demand. It was right here at the high. Okay. And right now take a look. And also previously what happened with the demand lower lower like high lower high and lower high.
Yeah. So lower high and then higher high. Let's take a look right now. Yeah. So demand of retail three lower highs. This was the high high in 2022 as well right at the top. Then lower high lower high as well. Right. Then the market started to trend a little bit lower.
And then take a look first above the zero line, first important spike. Take a look at this. Very similar to what happened in 2022. What happened with the price at low, right? So spike higher, price at low. Then price went up, right? Price went up as well previously.
So price went up. Perfect. And then price went a little bit lower. Touched the previous low and the demand spiked. So demand higher high and then right now we are creating another high in price but it's not higher than the previous high as you can see right here it's not higher than the previous high as well and what has done the demand a huge massive higher high okay and what happened afterwards
after this massive massive increase in retail demand the price crashed by around 27%. Take a look at that price crashed around 27 28% and this was the lower boundary of our exchange of the hand zone. Okay. And that's when this was the mark of the bottom.
What do you think retail thought about this? Well, they have been very bullish right here. They already thought that the bull market is over, right? And do you think like they they thought the same thing right here? Absolutely not. Right. So then it took them a lot of time to recover from this because this was very emotional like drop for them and we are talking about the reward prediction error right.
So they have predicted something and then the result was something else. So that was hugely negative reward prediction error. So their dopamine levels has been extremely low and then they have been scared right and then however they've been able because the market makers need to do that because then who is going to who is going to buy from you at the top like if you are a market maker and you have
a lot of money you need to sell somebody to drop your bags right and you need a lot of people a lot of liquidity to distribute your bags without moving the price and creating a slippage right so how you going to do that well you will lure a lot of people in by saying that the market bull market is back and we are going much higher blah blah blah right then the
retail investors are like woo wow okay we are going higher finally this is probably the time to go in and because human beings are also social species like right we like to follow because it feels comfortable what other people are doing so obviously you get in right you see all your friends going in as well So obviously you go with the crowd well and then the market makers are like oh perfect
the buying liquidity is coming I can sell my bags and it's just another cycle is creating and those kind of like emotional cycles are happening on a lower scale like lower time frame and also on the bigger scale but on the bigger scale you need much more bigger marketing budget etc right to to really do that.
So ladies and gentlemen, weekly I'm still I'm still bearish. This is not some magic ball or something. This is just another another indicator with hundreds that we are watching. All right, that's just making me careful of saying that this was the market bottom.
Okay, because something similar can really happen. Okay, and the market really might drop towards that $44,000. And frankly right now this is the higher probability of what's going to happen next. Doesn't mean that it needs to happen. We as a professional traders we are adaptive.
We are adapting to the market environment as water. So if the market will start showing me that I'm wrong, I'm really not going to be stubborn with my with my idea and I will be just position myself based on bullish trading tactics or from the swing trading perspective again.
Right. So ladies and gentlemen, right now watch out on the daily. Yeah, on the 4hour time frame I wanted to talk but it's uh not much time left but let's let's just quickly look already starting what we have been watching at the at the start right here right so the opposite is happen open interest went down previously and the cumulative volume delta started to absorb that but right now the opposite is
happening right so the the cumulative volume delta on the spot is already selling and the open interest is increasing so finally we can see the retail is getting aggressively it back. So the smart money have enough liquidity to distribute their backs and we can assume that it's uh the open interest is going up because the positions are being created on the long side because we can we can see that the funding
crates are positive and they are actually touching the important plus 10 number from where we have always seen historically in the past year a squeeze lower. So if you're in a long position aggressive long position I would be careful. It's a high probability that we will start crashing right now on the lower time frame.
Okay, so I will be definitely careful on the 4hour time frame. This seems the drop towards $72,000 right now seems to be a higher probability. So ladies and gentlemen, I will keep you updated. Next video will be on Tuesday. Until then, take care, trade safe and focus on professional trading strategy.
And after after this video, I will see you in Paris MVIP. Cheers. Calm breath, clear eyes. Work done now. Right. No rush, no drag. [music] Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. M clean set
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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