Bitcoin Fails at $79K: Who Is Selling?

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Bitcoin's open interest keeps rising. Retail keeps piling into long positions, [music] but the Bitcoin price continues to fail to reclaim $79,000. [music] So, who is absorbing all of that buying pressure? And where the price going to move next with the highest probability? Let's analyze.

[music] [music and singing] Hello ladies and gentlemen. This is Simon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Tuesday and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. So previously we talked about that Bitcoin will pump with the highest probability from $61,000 towards $79,000.

So we were bullish on Bitcoin on the daily time frame for multiple months and then once we have reached that $79,000 we have understood that with the probability we will start shifting down and we have turned bearish. Right? So together with that we have understood that the pattern that we are forming right now is ABC ex expanded flat and that the Cwave is not yet fully completed.

So right now on the lower time frames if we zoom in in the last video we have expected that with probability we will start pushing down from around that $79,000 and then we will create a truncated fifth. If that's going to complete like this the price action will look like this.

There's going to be an extremely high probability that we will start pushing below the previous low which was created at around $58,000 ladies and gentlemen. So take a look at this. We will cover in this video weekly, daily and we will also take a look a little bit on the 4hour time frame because there is some very important situation going on.

But first of all on the weekly time frame since we have closed the weekly candle like uh two days ago. So it closed like a shooting star candlestick pattern. All right, we have been already spectating the shooting star candlestick pattern right here on the daily time frame after we have hit our magical number $79,000.

All right, and right now we have created the shooting star candlestick pattern on the weekly time frame as well. So shooting star is this kind of candle that you usually see at the top of the uptrends. Okay. If you can confluence it also with a bearish engulfing.

All right candlestick pattern that's going to be the next one. If the body of the next one closes below the previous body of the shooting star candlestick pattern that's bearish engulfing candlestick. And this pattern increases on probability that the price will reverse from this daily uptrend that we have witnessed in the past few months and we will see a reversal and we will continue on the weekly time frame degree bare trend.

Okay. So this is after touching exactly our resistance on the weekly the lower boundary of our resistance zone. This is pretty bearish signal since we have touched our lower boundary of this resistance zone and immediately afterwards we have created a shooting star candlestick.

It tells us the bears are extremely strong. All right. So the bears are extremely strong right here and you know that from the previous video already we have been going deeply into the weekly time frame. We have been nicely kind of comparing that towards what happened in 2022 especially to the last drop right before the start of the new bull trend right so you know that I'm bearish on Bitcoin since $121,000

we are expecting this formation to be completed and we will crash towards $44,000. So, I'm calling for that $44,000 for than a year, more than a year already. And I still believe that before we can start pushing to the upside towards the new alltime high that I believe believe it's going to be created at around $169,000, we still need to drop lower.

We have the highest probability at this moment still $44,000. That's my key level. But if I will see behind the scenes what we were talking about in the previous video. If I will see that the hands are being exchanged right there, right? We will see the capitulation and the smart money will start absorbing that selling pressure.

That's going to be satisfactory for me enough for me to with the priority VIPs reaccumulate aggressively the Bitcoin that we were selling right here around $19,000 and around $121,000 back in expectation that we will start pushing towards the new alltime high. Okay. So, however, at this moment, a lot of people call just because of this one green candle that the bare trend is over.

I don't really understand these kind of claims. All right, we were talking about that like in the previous video a lot, right? In the last video why calling it right now is very low probability because there are no confirmations whatsoever at this moment.

Okay, so I will not spend more time on the weekly. I'm still bearish on the weekly time frame. You know that we believe that the final fifth wave that might take us towards that $44,000 should unfold itself in a fashion of ending diagonal pattern and that subdivides itself into five smaller waves right into five subwaves.

We have created already the first one right now with the highest probability we are concluding the second one that expanded flat and with the next one we should break below the previous low of that $58,000. That's going to be the third one, fourth one and the fifth one might take us towards that $44,000.

So obviously the invalidation is extremely clear right here. If you will start reclaiming back the previous high that will invalidate the ending diagonal pattern. All right. And upon confirmation of a successful reclaim of this resistance and turning it into support. I might be turning bullish on the weekly time frame and definitely I will start playing the weekly time frame with bullish trading tactics instead of bearish trading treatment that the weekly is

getting from me right now. Let's zoom in into this price action. Let's take a look if the secondary wave, the possible secondary wave of this ending diagonal is already finished. So let's zoom in ladies and gentlemen. We will cover a few more stuff.

We will take a look also in this video on the fear and greed index funding crates because we will confluence it with what's going on with the cumulative volume delta right now and it's going to be very important and also in confluence with open interest.

Very important. And we will also take a look right here because we have imbalance on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map. Okay. So from the daily time frame perspective, it still suggests that the market makers can make much more money if they will push the price to the downside than the same direction, the same direction to the upside.

Because you need to understand if you're a market maker, you have a lot of capital in your hands. All right? And then it's extremely easy for you to just push the price a little bit to some important level to create this kind of cascade of liquidations which we called a domino effect which then pushes the price lower and lower or higher and higher by itself.

Because we understand that when you liquidate a short position or long position in this case, long position basically the long position needs to be sold, right? So it automatically pushes the price lower and then when you have cluster of these long liquidations and you basically create this kind of cascade, the liquidation itself pushes the price lower and lower and lower.

And for you as a market maker, you just need to break one important level, right? And then the cascade happens. It was same right here as we were pushing to the upside, right? It was basically cascade after cascade and it created this kind of liquidation domino effect because when we were when we were analyzing the market together when we were back at $61,000, right?

The Bitcoin exchange liquidation lab looked completely the opposite, right? It was the opposite. We had a huge imbalance on the right side and there was almost nothing on the left side. So for the market makers, of course, it's not always certain that they will use that liquidation to push the price in that direction.

But if you can confluence it with important other indicators and the market structure supports that bias, it's a great add-on to your trading arsenal. Right? So we are watching multiple indicators as a professional traders and all of them are giving us data and from the data we conclude some probability points right against our bias or with our bias and thanks to that then we are able to understand if we are supposed

to take a trade and if yes how much we can risk on it based on how much probability points we get from our analysis or if we should not take that trade at all. Right? Sometimes sitting on your hands is much better. All right.

Sometimes it's much smarter to fold your cards in a professional poker than going into the game with a bad hand. Right? The same with trading. Sometimes it's much better to stay sidelines when you know the probabilities are not on your side. So let's have a look right here.

If you will start pushing back towards $57,000, ladies and gentlemen, we will liquidate $22.6 billion worth of long positions. That's substantial amount of money, right? However, if we will start pushing a similar length to the upside, we will equate only 11 billion worth of short position.

So you can see clearly the domino effect will be much easier to be created on this side. All right, on the other one. Obviously this cluster might be dangerous, right? So $83,000 might be wicked out. And based on understanding this, if we decide to position ourself on a short position by analyzing this Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, we can understand that probably if we will decide upon confirmations to enter a short position,

it's very smart idea to put our stop-loss above this cluster, right? And we can do it on the lower time frame this kind of analysis and also on the higher time frame. So if you take a look on the lower time frame again if we decide to go into a long position for example right there is a cluster and our stop loss should be henceforth below that cluster right so the thing

that you don't want as a professional trader is to create some trade position this is your entry this is your stop-loss this might be your exit target right and what you don't want is you want to minimize being victim out during the noise of the market before the real move happens.

Right? So, what you want to avoid as a professional trader is this, right? Hitting your stop-loss and then moving to your exit target. This is so important because a professional trader that is long-term profitable doesn't just understand with the highest probability where the market's going to go next, right?

But he's able to tactically position himself in the trade. So during the noise and the market especially the crypto market is very volatile right and there is a lot of noise before the real move happens. So it's extremely important the same way uh to understand the next direction with the highest probability also understand where is going to be the noise and placing the stop loss below it.

Right? So what you want to happen in your trading when the stop loss hits the price needs to reverse in that direction. Okay, that's a great stop-loss. That's a great stop-loss. And a lot of people just thinking about the direction, but they are not thinking about the other like 80% of extremely important stuff.

How to position yourself, how to manage your risk, where to place your stop- loss, where to place your entry, where to place your exit targets. And it's same I would even say more important than understanding where the direction is going to head next with the highest probability team.

Okay. So this is extremely important ladies and gentlemen and the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map is one of the tools that is helping us in the paradise team. Okay. All of the company traders, we are watching all of this data and thanks to that, we are able to minimize the possibility of getting wicked out before the real move happens in the direction we think it's going to go.

So, right now, what we can see on the daily time frame is that the bulls are trying hard to reclaim that $79,000, but you can see that they are still unsuccessful, right? We have got some wick outs above that $79,000 but they are not able to reclaim it and all of these wickouts are not a real buying volume that was just these kind of basically liquidation of overleveraged short positions as we

have discussed in the previous video. So as you can see the 79,000 D resistance that we were expecting that is going to be hit for multiple months right is working beautifully ladies shhat is working beautifully and right now I do believe that from that expanded flat formation that you know is having the Cwave that subdivides itself into five small waves we have created already the wave three and right now we are

creating the wave four that might retest this moving average trend line at around $74,000. And then given that the third wave was the extended one and we have already hit the key level, there is extremely high probability that the fifth wave will not go above the previous high but the fifth wave is going to be actually truncated.

So once I get a confirmation of the fifth wave which subdivide itself into five more waves that's going to be for me at least extremely high probability that the Cwave is being finished and that the market can see a reversal and I will definitely be acting based on that and you already know what we have been doing if you are in broadly VIP with our accumulation of Bitcoin that we have accumulated

back in at the low prices around $61,000 and again our next moves If you're in prod VIP, you will know exactly where we are placing our entry, our exit targets. If we are entering long or short position real time, you will know about it in party semi VIP.

So ladies and gentlemen, but this is this doesn't mean that I will go extremely aggressive or defensive or if I'm going to go into short position. But I can tell you if I will see this formation for me at least, it will increase the probabilities extremely.

And then it's really upon your trading tactic right based on what kind of confirmations you are entering the market. So some traders are entering on the market at like lower probabilities and they are then they are adding on size, right? So a lot of lot of different trading tactics.

There's like thousands of different trading tactics. Some are waiting for a high amount of probability and they don't care about having an exceptional riskreward. So there is always this kind of trade-off between riskreward and probability. But that's how you position, that's how you set up your trading strategy.

But you just need to make sure that your trading strategy is long-term profitable. And I'm talking about at least three years because three-year period is the one period where you can really judge your trading strategy again against multiple market cycles. All right? So if your trading strategy can survive 3 years of market when you are trading on daily basis that doesn't mean that you are creating trades every day but that you

are monitoring the market on daily basis and you are looking for positions. If you can survive three years with that strategy that's a successful strategy and then you just need to basically follow it with discipline. Follow your process with discipline, emotion discipline, and patience.

And that's the whole game of how professional trading is being made, right? Just following your process. Don't care about outcome. Trust your process because you have back tested your strategy. You know that it works. And if you're going to follow it with patience, you will be long-term profitable.

Right? So, take a look at this right now, ladies and gentlemen. I'm bearish on the daily time frame. I do believe that right now we are creating the fourth wave then we will create the fifth wave and then with that probability we will start pushing below the previous low $58,000.

This is right now the highest probability outcome. All right. It doesn't mean that I'm entering into short position. It might mean that right but it's my strategy. All right. And the thing is that you should be calculating probabilities based on your trading tactics and based on your trading strategy.

Right now what I'm sharing with you right here is just probability of a price action analysis. This is not a trading signal. Okay. So ladies and gentlemen, this is how right now the highest probability. We can take a look on the volume. All right.

It's declining. So as we are trying to push above the resistance, the participation is actually fading away. We can see the momentum is decreasing as well on the MACD. We are about to have a bearish cross on the RSI. We have already crossed bearishly after being overbought for some time and we don't have the retest of this RSI trend line just yet.

So it might not be a successful break and basically reclaim of the previous uh support into a resistance. We would like to see for a better confirmation this kind of retest, right? And I want to see that this line is working. Previously it was working as a support.

Right now it will be working as a resistance. Right? Right here you can see that it tried to retest it but it was strong support and it start to continue uh in that direction. Right now I want to see at least a little retest and the retest might happen upon the creation of the truncated fifth.

It would be actually nice, right? If if it would look something like this and then continuation down, that would nicely confirm the price action. Anyway, right now, nothing bullish about the momentum. Okay, we can really see the the bulls are very weak on the stoastic RSI.

Both legs looking to the downside. Bears are fully on in control right here. So, I'm bearish on the daily time frame. I would really not try to look to be in a long position as many people are on the daily time frame. We can see that we have touched that 80 that magical number 80 where we were at around 70 70 let me see $79,000 right so it worked nicely as this

kind of reversal signal right now we are back at around greed so still a lot of people on the daily time frame believe that the market will continue to go higher so they are positioning based on that themselves we can confirm that on our funding funding ing crates.

As you can see, the funding rates are quite positive. We are having long squeeze probability 30% which is substantial on the daily time frame and it just tells us it confirms what we are seeing right here on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map. The longs are crowded and there is the risk of creating the domino effect and the market makers might use them to help them make money during the domino effect that

can happen. Right? So ladies and gentlemen, I would be careful with long positions. Let's take a look quickly on the 4hour time frame from the intro you know that we have been I've talked about this open interest. It is very important to understand where is the price action what's actually happening.

Okay. So we can see that really there has been a lot of activity from few of the bulls that are left that has not bought just yet. They are buying aggressively opening long positions. Okay, this is leverage. This is borrowed money. So it's retail money.

Okay, so they are longing aggressively which confirms the sentiment, the greedy sentiment right now. So they are buying aggressively but they are failing to break above and reclaim the $79,000. So take a look at this. All right, the open interest is creating higher highs but the price action is flat.

It's creating equal highs. Okay. So somebody so basically the retail is opening long positions long positions long position long positions and somebody is not letting the price to create the higher highs as well. Right? Somebody is not as you can see higher highs on the open interest but right here we are having a clear divergence.

So somebody is absorbing that buying pressure and actually using that to smoothly distribute their bags. All right. And we can confirm that this open interest is rising from long positions. It's not short positions because we can see the funding crates, right? So yeah, a lot of pushing going on from retail right now.

They're opening long positions and which is making the longs crowded and again increasing even on the lower time frame on the 4our time frame the the risk of the squeeze which is nicely which is nicely confluencing with the idea that we are having on the 4hour time frame as you remember right here in the previous video we were talking about that on the 4hour time frame that we will start pushing towards

that 7273,000 where on the medium time frame we have this beautiful support zone. All right. So what we are doing is that on the 4hour time frame we are doing the opposite of what we are what we have done on the daily time frame right here.

So this pattern ABC where the B wave goes below the start of the Awave and then the Cwave is an impulse is called expanded flat. Take a look at that. Yeah, A B C B goes below the start of the Awave. Let's have a look right here on the 4hour time frame.

It's just the bearish structure of the same pattern of the expanded flat pattern with the highest probability. It's not confirmed with certaintity 100%. Nothing is 100%. As a professional traders, we are working with just with probabilities. So take a look at this A which is a corrective weight structure ABC.

Then we have got the B. This was the double zigzag. B also corrective weight pattern. So AB the B wave went above the start of the Awave. Right? And right now with that probability we are creating the Cwave. All right, which should be having the formation of an impulse.

So there's a higher probability that this was the secondary wave. Right now we are creating the third wave. Then we will have a fourth wave and then the fifth wave might take us towards $72,000 ladies and gentlemen. So still on the four time frame I'm also bearish.

All right. And the fourth wave with the highest probability will be created as expanded flat. We can see that right now we are flirting with this moving average trend line trying to reclaim it. That 78 $79,000 moving average trend line but unsuccessful. Right?

As we can see the bearish volume is much stronger than the buying volume. Okay. So the bears are in control right here. Huge VPVR at this level. So it's a tough nut to crack right here on the 4hour time frame and it confirms that uh we are creating the Cwave and henceforth I'm more bearish on the 4hour time frame.

Take a look also on the MACD histogram right here. Not only we have got the bearish cross right here but also take a look at the momentum of the bulls right here versus the momentum of the bears. Like clearly the bulls are trying hard but they can't get enough momentum to like reclaim this moving average trend line medium time frame at this moment.

They might be able to push right anything can happen like you might be a whale having couple of millions of dollars right and you [clears throat] might wake up one time one day and say completely unreasonably I'm going to buy a bitcoin at this price.

So it might happen like you don't know what's going to happen right but as a professional traders we are working with probability so we can assume okay most of the people with a lot of millions are probably clever right so they will not be buying at this level because of this and this and this right that's why we are using technical analysis because we can presume what's going to happen in the

minds of other people all right and uh because we understand these kind of mechanics of retail versus smart money, we can understand the probabilities and we understand the structures. And right now the structure and the probability is that we will push towards $72,000 rather than breaking above the previous high at around $81,000 and continue to go towards the resistance at $84,000.

Doesn't mean it can't happen. It's just lower probability right now. So we can see the momentum of the bulls is very low on the MACD histogram. We are having a clear exaggerated bearish divergence. So ladies and gentlemen, I would be very careful with long positions right now on the on the 4hour time frame as well.

Okay, there is no confirmation to be in some aggressive long position. So but it might happen if you will reclaim nicely the moving average trend line. We might enter a long position but at this moment right now it's a low probability play ladies and gentlemen.

So the high probability play however is right now that we will start pushing towards $72,000. This is not a trading signal. This is just an analysis. Right? I'm not saying that the riskreward right here is might be enough. I'm not saying that there's enough confirmations right now to create a short position.

It might be right. So however if we enter or get aggressive into some position you will know it. you will know about it in Protis and VIP. But right now, ladies and gentlemen, longs are very dangerous. That's for sure. So, I will be care I would be careful and I will definitely keep you updated.

Right now, this is the highest probability outcome, ladies and gentlemen. But I will keep you updated. Next video, I will record for you on Thursday. As you know, I'm recording for you for free every week, three times a week. Every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday.

So, until then, trade safe. Trade with a professional trading strategy. [snorts] and focus on discipline process trading. Cheers. Calm eyes [music] now. Right. No rush, no drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up. [music] Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. M [music] clean set