In short: In this session Simon argues the US-Iran deal is a headline, not the real driver: Bitcoin is moving on returning liquidity, not news. Price bounced from the $55,000 to $44,000 target zone and is now stalling at $67,000 resistance, a moving-average trendline. He reads a possible fourth-wave pullback toward the $64,000 to $65,000 support before a final fifth wave. Upside levels he cites are $69,000 to $71,000 (medium) and $79,000 (strongest, near a CME gap). His bias: be careful with longs here because the risk-reward has turned unfavorable, not because a crash is confirmed.
Why does Simon say the Iran deal is not the real driver?
Simon says he had no idea a US-Iran deal was coming, yet he still expected Bitcoin to push up. His prior videos called the move before the news. His read: price follows liquidity, not headlines. Big players need liquidity to buy and sell, and retail supplies it.
What is the real driver behind this move?
Liquidity. Simon says money is flowing quietly from the stock market back into crypto, so the market can finally make cleaner moves after months of thin conditions. He calls this recent leg a clean, high-liquidity move. He stresses it does not matter whether price goes up or down; what matters is that liquidity is returning.
How the prior downside target set up this bounce
On the weekly timeframe Simon had expected a crash toward $55,000 to $44,000 after a fake breakout above a moving-average trendline. Bitcoin instead stopped at a triple confluence: a descending trendline, a Fibonacci retracement, and VPVR. From there whales began bidding, placing buy limit orders and absorbing supply.
How did the liquidation map factor into the push up?
Simon says the exchange liquidation map showed heavy short positions with liquidation levels stacked above price. Traders expecting more downside piled into shorts, giving market makers fuel to squeeze. That accumulated short liquidity, he argues, powered the push toward the upside targets he had flagged earlier.
Simon leans on the liquidation and funding picture to judge where squeeze fuel sits. You can track that same backdrop on the MCP Crypto Funding Rates page, which shows funding-rate pressure across all major exchanges so you can see when crowded positioning builds up.
Where is Bitcoin right now in Simon’s read?
Bitcoin is sitting at $67,000, a resistance made from a moving-average trendline that has not been reclaimed yet. Simon says price reached his upside target near a 1.618 Fibonacci level, confluenced with a channel line, VPVR, and prior price action, then rejected. He watches whether it holds or slips lower.
The wave structure Simon is tracking
Simon frames this with Elliott Wave language he calls inhales and exhales. He says the market completed a first inhale-exhale, then a third-wave inhale that subdivided into five smaller waves. He now expects a higher-degree fourth wave lower, followed by a final fifth wave with the highest probability.
What upside levels does Simon name above $67,000?
Above $67,000 Simon flags $69,000 to $71,000 as a medium-strength zone. The strongest resistance he names is $79,000, which he says lines up with a CME futures gap and multiple confluences. That $79,000 level was his stated maximum upside target for this leg of the move.
Where is support if price pulls back?
Simon’s strong support sits at $64,000 to $65,000. He expects a fourth-wave dip toward an ascending trendline that confluences with the top of the first wave. He notes a low-probability alternative, a leading diagonal, could push price back into earlier wave territory, but he rates that unlikely.
The bigger picture: $44,000 and the missing fifth wave
Simon repeats his long-standing target of $44,000, a level he calls his magical number and has described many times. He says Bitcoin has not finished its five-wave structure since topping around $121,000, and a final fifth wave lower is still expected. He references prior points at $109,000 and $121,000.
Is this the macro bottom?
No. Simon is explicit that this is not the macro bottom yet. He says his team has reaccumulated some Bitcoin strategically, but he is not holding it for a run to $169,000. He believes price still needs to go a little lower to finish the structure before a real bottom forms.
Should you be buying longs here?
Simon says he would be careful with longs at $67,000, not because a crash is confirmed, but because the risk-reward has turned unfavorable. With unreclaimed resistance overhead and resistances between price and $79,000, he sizes the setup near 11% risk for roughly 80% reward, which he considers poor for his tactics.
Why risk comes first for Simon
Simon calls himself a risk-monitoring machine, not a money-making machine. He warns that traders who treat the market like a casino tend to lose over time, citing team data that most active traders lose nearly everything within three years. His edge, he says, is exploiting emotional positioning while managing risk with stop losses.
What is Simon watching next?
On the 4-hour timeframe Simon sees an exaggerated bearish divergence and an approaching bearish cross, with price making a higher high while momentum stalls into resistance. Once that cross confirms, he expects a pull toward the ascending trendline. He says he will explain more of the short-side risk-reward case on Thursday.
Signal versus noise near this level
Simon warns that on low liquidity the crypto market stays highly volatile, so a fake-out can still happen before the real move. If you play the long side, he suggests placing a stop below the Fibonacci retracement, or more safely below the recent lows, to avoid being wicked out by noise.
Is the US-Iran deal why Bitcoin is pumping?
Simon says no. He argues the deal is a headline, not the driver. He had no knowledge it was coming yet still expected Bitcoin to rise because his read is that price follows liquidity, not news. Big players need liquidity to move size, and returning retail liquidity is enabling cleaner moves.
What is Simon’s $79,000 Bitcoin level?
$79,000 is the strongest upside resistance Simon names and his stated maximum target for this leg. He says it lines up with a CME futures gap plus other confluences. Between current price near $67,000 and $79,000 he flags a medium-strength zone at $69,000 to $71,000 that price must clear first.
Why is Simon cautious about longs at $67,000?
Because the risk-reward has turned unfavorable, not because a crash is confirmed. Bitcoin sits at an unreclaimed resistance with more resistances overhead. Simon estimates roughly 11% risk for about 80% reward, which he considers poor for his tactics, so he would not open longs at this price himself.
Does Simon think this is the bottom?
No. Simon says this is not the macro bottom yet. He expects a final fifth wave lower and still targets $44,000, his long-standing magical number. His team has reaccumulated some Bitcoin strategically but is not holding for a run to $169,000, because he believes price needs to go a little lower first.
What levels does Simon give for support?
Simon names $64,000 to $65,000 as strong support and expects a fourth-wave dip toward an ascending trendline confluencing with the top of the first wave. Further out, $44,000 remains his key structural target. He treats these as probabilities, managed with stop losses, never as certainties.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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