In short: Simon and the ParadiseTeam say Bitcoin is testing resistance near 65 to 67,000 while whales stack more than $100 million in sell walls above. The daily bias still leans up toward 79,000, but 1-hour momentum looks weak. So Simon sees limited upside and waits to buy near 60 to 59,000.
Can Bitcoin break the $100 million sell walls above?
Whales built sell walls above the current price that together top $100 million. Bitcoin is trying to reclaim a minor edge trend line back into support at the same time.
Simon sees the upside as limited near the 65 to 67,000 resistance. He gives a rejection higher odds than a clean break, though he stresses these are probabilities, not certainties. You can follow the setup on the Bitcoin analysis hub.
What is Simon’s Bitcoin price bias right now?
On the daily, Simon reads multiple confluences for a reversal from 60 to 61,000 pushing toward 79,000 as the secondary wave.
Zoom out to the weekly and it is an expanded flat that, since 121,000, has been calling for the 44,000 golden ratio zone. Simon marks 55 to 44,000 as the likely exchange-of-hands area. Only after the market builds a long-term bottom does he look toward a new all-time high near 169,000.
Where does Simon want to buy Bitcoin?
Simon is watching the 60 to 59,000 support as a strong-probability, good risk-reward zone for a long.
He will not panic sell or short into a correction. Instead he plans to absorb the selling pressure there, but only with enough confluences and confirmations. That discipline of planning the entry, exit and invalidation before risking money is covered in his guide on position sizing and capital preservation.
What do funding and positioning show?
Open interest is rising and the cumulative volume delta shows aggressive market buying. Funding rates are turning positive as new longs pile in.
That combination lifts the long squeeze probability, which Simon reads on the crypto funding rates board. The fear and greed index sits at 60, neutral but greed-tinted, telling him retail is involved. That is why he stays ready to buy a flush rather than chase the highs.
Frequently asked questions
What target did Simon give for Bitcoin?
On the daily, Simon sees a reversal from 60 to 61,000 pushing toward 79,000 as the secondary wave. Longer term, his weekly expanded flat points down to a 44,000 golden ratio zone first, before a possible new all-time high near 169,000.
Why is Simon cautious on longs here?
The 1-hour chart made only a small higher high while momentum faded, so Simon reads whales absorbing the buying pressure and stacking sell walls above. Open interest and positive funding raise long squeeze risk, so he warns anyone long to be careful near resistance.
Where does Simon plan to buy Bitcoin?
Simon is watching the 60 to 59,000 support as a strong-probability and risk-reward zone for a long. He will not panic sell or short into a correction. Instead he plans to absorb the selling pressure there, but only with enough confluences and confirmations.
What does the MicroStrategy comment mean?
Simon notes MicroStrategy’s average buying price sits around 77,000, and that it, plus miners who entered around 2023, have never faced a rough bear market. He expects pressure to build as these institutions may capitulate, which could help form the long-term bottom.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Bitcoin is trying to break back into [music] this channel, but the whales just created huge sell walls above us that equal together more than $100 million. So, can Bitcoin break through them or is a higher probability that we [music] will see a rejection?
Let's analyze. [music] >> Hello ladies and gentlemen, this is S from my crypto paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Tuesday and that means that you're watching the first video of this week. In the previous videos, we went through multiple time frames.
One of them been daily time frame where we understood that there is multiple confluences that increases the probabilities that we will see a reversal from 60 to $61,000 and we will start pushing towards $79,000. As you can see right now we are pushing above the minor edge trend line that been previously working as a resistance right here and right here as well.
And right now we are trying to reclaim it into support. If that's going to happen this moving average trend line will basically work as moving support and will be supporting the price action to the upside. But do I believe that the price action will look like this?
Well, you know that we also went through the lower time frames. We after covering the weekly and daily, we shift our focus to 4hour time frame because what's important for professional traders is not only understanding the bias, right? Like what is the higher probability?
Are we going to have the next big move to the upside or is the higher probability of having a move to the downside? But that would matter only if we would be accumulating and distributing, right? So, you know, if you have been in Peris VIB, we have been reaccumulating some of our bitcoins right here at $61,000.
And that's some part of our trading strategy, what we are doing inside of Paradise VIP. But also, we are doing these swing trading strategies, day trading strategies, sculp trading strategies. And for that you also need to have a proper trading tactics. That understandment henceforth of subwaves of some wave structures is really helpful to understand where you going to enter, where you're going to exit, where you're going to have your stop-loss in
order to protect your capital and also where what kind of guidelines you're going to create for yourself before you enter the position which will tell you when to exit the position earlier before hitting target or the stop-loss. And all of this is extremely important to actually create this tactic before you bet the money before you invest the money into that trade.
Traders are investing money into a trade. Gamblers are betting money. Right? So it's really your decision who you going to be a gambler or a trader. So the thing is that for traders is important to do it before entering the position before having the money on the table because once you enter the position what's going to happen is that you're going to start fearing you start having this fear of loss right
you start fearing that you might loss. So in order for you not to be destroyed or do some mistakes because of these emotions because when you start involving emotions and it might be fear, it might be greed, it might be excitement, right? It might be greed, you will start doing fundamental mistakes to be covered from these emotional biases.
What you need to do is just set up the trade before you have the money on the table. Right? So once you determine before entering the trade where you going to enter, where you going to exit, where you going to exit in a loss, in a profit, what's going to be your invalidation, then you just enter the trade, right?
And you have your checklist right here and you're monitoring what's going on and you're doing nothing else than just making sure that for invalidation you don't have enough check marks. If you do, you just get out and then you are just waiting for your targets, right?
And that's it. That's basically it. And it's really going to help you to have when you have this kind of framework of what you going to do if this happens only what you going to do if this happens or that happens which is going to which is helping us basically as professional traders it's helping us not to get emotional once we are in a position and then we can nicely smoothly follow
our disciplined approach right and that's from where the long-term edge comes from from discipline not excitement right so our edge really comes from having disciplined approach to trading. Not having this 100% I know what's going to happen, right? And I'm going to bet 100% of my money and 100 with 100x leverage on that move.
That's not professional trading because we understand probabilities are just probabilities, not certainties. And the opposite can always happen, right? There might be two whales that just decide, all right, I don't want Bitcoin anymore. I push the sell button. I I will sell tomorrow.
And what can we do with that, right? Nothing absolutely nothing. We only can understand the dynamics of the market. We can understand what the whales been doing in the past and what will probability they will do in the future and when and based on that position ourselves.
Right? So at this moment we understand that we are in that expanded flat pattern. We call it expanded flat pattern and that subdivides itself into three smaller waves. Right? How do we call those waves? ABC A B C and they also subdivides itself into special structures and we won't be talking about the A and B wave as they are already finished but let's take a look at the C wave all right
as you can see it subdivide itself into a motive wave structure an impulse with the highest probability but it can also be sometimes an ending diagonal that's what's make it interesting that's what's really make it interesting because you need to monitor the market and we are doing with the paradise team since 2016.
We are monitoring the market and we are recognizing the patterns and based on that positioning ourselves. So what we understand is that it's going to look something like this the structure right. So have we already created the first wave? Well that's why we need to have a look on the 4hour time frame where we will be also be able to see the subwaves of that wave structures.
So the first wave we know that it subdivided itself into five smaller waves. The secondary it's one of the nine corrective mode waves. It's like market is inhaling then it needs to have an exhale that's a corrective wave structure and in a preparation for the next inhale.
Right? So inhale exhale inhale exhale inhale. So have we finished the inhale? Is the market about to catch a breath already? Well let's just summarize the daily. Are we bearish on daily? Do you believe that this inhale before the next move to the downside is done?
Well, I do see that only on the exhale the bears went very weak right here. We have created the bullish divergence right at this moment. I don't see that the bulls are getting weaker. So, we are still in a powerful inhale. Just to summarize the weekly time frame very quickly, what do we understand since Bitcoin trending at 109 and $121,000 is that we are having exactly the expanded flat but opposite direction
that what we are seeing right now on the daily time frame which basically told us at that $121,000 that there's a extremely high probability that we'll start pushing towards that $44,000. Right. The zone is actually made with lower and upper boundary. The lower boundary is $44,000 made out of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level golden ratio.
It's shaping this same 618 golden ratio shaping your brain, shaping your emotions, shaping the whole universe. It's extremely important number. That's why since $121,000 where basically since 2025 already since $19,000 I'm calling for the $44,000 right and we are almost there ladies and gentlemen but we also understand that we need to stay in this zone for a while so we can really create the long-term bottom because we as I have said
before we need to just have a look what's happening in the history so we can understand what what's with the highest probability going to happen in the future, right? History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. And as you can see on the naturalized profit and loss indicator that I'm showing you right now, it's rhyming pretty well since 2012.
Yeah, since the end of the world year, basically 2012, as you remember, it was supposed to be the end of the world as we know it. Well, it was definitely the end of the bare market as we knew it. All right. In in Bitcoin and afterwards a bull market started.
So as you can see what happened was that a lot of people that been handling a lot of bitcoins at that time capitulated. They have sold in a loss. All right. Because we went below the section zero right here for a pretty long time and we have seen that people are actually selling in loss.
heavy loss has been realized back in uh 20 2012 and the smart money that been waiting for this opportunity they absorbed the selling pressure and that's how we created the long-term bottom and the same orchestration happened in 2015 as you can see capitulation we went below the zero people started to realize their losses started to sell in a loss we spend some time here exchange of hands happened and then bull market
began again, right? Same in 2018, same in 2020, same in 2022. In fact, in 2022, we had the zone exchange of the hand zone exactly right here at 25 as a upper boundary $25,000, lower boundary at $16,000. That was the exchange of the hand zone.
the same exchange of the hand zone. I do think it's going to be the highest probability happened at 55 to $44,000. So the price action development of the final fifth wave here is fourth. Here's fifth because we understand the structure that needs to happen for us to be able to create the long-term bottom and start pushing towards the new alltime high at $169,000.
We need to spend some time here. So the structure of the fifth wave is actually supporting the bias of being an ending diagonal and we have the structure of an ending diagonal right and we also understand that with probability we have already created the first wave now we are creating the secondary wave that can take us up to $79,000 then we will have the third wave fourth wave and then the fifth
wave here might happen the exchange of the hands the institution ions like micro strategy that I told you about that it's one of the institutions that really not managed their risk very well in fact very badly all right so they have never went through a rough bare market just yet and their average buying price is around $77,000 if I'm not wrong all right and a lot of pressure is being put on
them already and you already know that Michael Siler is already creating the scan kind of PR for himself. If if you listen to him, how he speaks on some of the events, you understand that he's just preparing his followings, his audience that is following him, they trusted him when he told them that he will never sell.
He's preparing for the times where he's going to he's going to sell. He's going to sell. So, he's already talking the way that then it's going to be like, well, of course, I'm selling, right? So like I never told you that I'm not going to sell.
So yeah, Micro Strategy is one of them, but it's definitely just one piece of the puzzle, right? There is multiple Bitcoin mining companies that went into the market around 2023. All right, so they have never experienced any bare market just yet and they are getting under a lot of pressure as well.
And all of these institutions as they are starting to capitulate, me and you, we will be watching that together. I will keep you informed. We'll be seeing if the smart money are absorbing the selling pressure and if we will get enough confirmations, we will call the bottom and we will start getting ready ourselves for the next bull market that might take us towards $169,000.
But before that happens, we need to complete the possible ending diagonal pattern that we are creating at this moment. So let's just quickly go through it right now. We might be finishing the first wave. All right. And then we will have a secondary.
If you have been in Paris VIP, you know that we have been accumulating the Bitcoin. But because we also are swinging traders, day traders, sculpers. So sculping, that's completely something different. But I can give you some swing plus ideas right here. What I'm watching for example what I'm monitoring right now from opportunity perspective is the shaping of the secondary wave which I don't believe we have created just yet.
I don't believe this for example downside this correction was a secondary wave. I actually believe that this is still part of the first wave. So if you take a look on for our time frame. Yeah. So we can see the subwaves of the possible first wave.
Right. So right now there's a high probability that we have created first, second, third. This might be still a fourth wave ladies gentlemen. We might be creating the final fifth wave and then we will start pushing towards that important support that is sitting at around $60 to $59,000 where a very great opportunity will be for not only from the probability perspective but also great riskreward.
All right to create a nice long position ladies gentlemen. So definitely confluences and confirmations will be needed right here. What we can see right now is that if we going to get there right if you're going to get there well right now the probabilities suggest that we will need to have we will need to have the correction sooner or later.
So definitely once we going to have that I'm not going to be panic selling. I'm not going to be panic shorting right right here. I'm going to be instead doing the opposite of the most of the traders going to be doing and that's going to be I will be focusing on absorbing the selling pressure that will come and how do I know that the selling pressure will come because let's have a
look what most of the people are doing right now. So we can see open interest is increasing right cumulative. So that basically means that there is a lot of commitment new contracts are being opened new positions are getting in but are those short positions are they basically absorbing the buying pressure from spot market.
Are they creating short positions on that liquidity? Well we can see the open interest is increasing and the cumulative volume delta as well. Right? So there's a lots of market buying. So the the bulls are being much more aggressive than the sellers on the cumulative volume delta.
We can see they are pressing the buy button on the market orders. So they are getting pretty aggressive to get into that price in expectation with the probability that the price is going to continue to go even higher so they can make profit.
And if you take a look also on the funding rates, we can clearly see that the funding rates are getting quite positive, right? Which confirms that the open interest is being increased because new long positions are being created and it is increasing the long squeeze probability, right?
And once this long squeeze probability is going to get high enough, well, once there is enough confluences of being at a proper resistance and the longs going to get pretty vulnerable, the market makers just needs to basically push the price a little bit in an opposite direction.
It will start triggering those overish long positions and it will create this long squeeze that. So there is enough fuel to get us towards this zone, right? And then obviously there will be a lot of people in panic right they have just lost money on the long positions that they are in at this moment and for me it will be just opportunity to get in to get in so I'll be waiting
for the time if that's going to happen fear and greed index we can see the movement is supported with a lot of greed we are not yet in in greedy numbers we are at 60 so we are at neutral but I'm interested in how the move of The market is being driven as well by watching the fear and greed index that you can also monitor with me on our website markettobra.com and
I can see a lot of a lot of greediness is being in this move and that confirms that the retail is involved. All right. So when the retail is involved it's telling me a lot of people are right now believe believing that we might push above this resistance.
you know that we are heading very close to the important resistance levels as you know from the previous video which is 65 to $67,000. Yeah, that's my resistances. The the upside is limited in my opinion. It doesn't mean that we cannot go higher just the probabilities are lower for that right and the upside is really right now limited and since a lot of retail is already in it's again like making a
little bit the price overbought right and when we are overbought when there is nobody else to continue to buy well the path of least resistance is in an opposite direction so that might happen that might happen and if that's going to happen I will be ready right here at 60 to 59 $9,000 to execute on that.
If we take a look, do we see some bearish divergences that would give us an early sign that we might already start pushing to the downside? So, let's just go through it quickly. On 4hour time frame, we can see higher higher high lower high at this moment, but we do have also bullish cross not confirmed just yet.
But I can turn this zone since we have just closed the 4hour candle above this resistance. I can close it into a neutral zone. Neutral because we have not reclaimed it just yet, right? So it's really important to wait for a proper reclaim.
So you can call some zone like that previously been acting as a resistance. You can call it support. Right now for me this is neutral zone. All right. You can see that we are playing with the zone for quite some time. basically since the beginning of July and yeah if we will start pushing back towards this zone and it will be holding with these confluences of getting back into this channel with
ascendant trend line I'm being here moving average right here VPVRB right here this zone right here if the 4hour candle will hold right here well it might create nice opportunities but not until then now I call it still a neutral zone nice participation I see on the volume Let's take a look also on the RSI.
Yeah, it confirms the same thing, but no bearish confirmations for that just yet. Let's have a look also on the 1 hour time frame. So, you can see that we have just made like little higher high on the price action but the momentum is just like this was the power of the bulls right here.
This is right now the power of the bulls right here and we have just created very smaller higher high. So you can see a lot of people are getting in like they're they're basically they are overexhausting themselves and they have just been able to create this higher high right so this is not really healthy for the bulls and it's just increasing the probabilities that they will not have enough power to continue
because there is not enough other people that would join them like it seems like the market is really getting to extremes right now so what would be healthy what would be healthy Okay, this momentum would be okay if the price would do this.
All right, or this. Yeah, so the higher high would need to be like like here. That would be great. But since I can see that the re that the momentum is like this and the price action just done like very small or higher high I can see that somebody's actually absorbing the buying pressure and it's probably the guys the whales that I have shared with you in the intro that actually setting
up the cell walls above the current market price. So if you're in a long position I would be careful. I would be careful ladies gentlemen but again it's just probabilities you know professional trading is having probabilities as one piece of the puzzle so play with a great strategy play with a great tactic stay safe focus on the long term ladies gentlemen I will see you next time I will see you again
on a Thursday in the next video where we again take a look at the market together cheers >> calm breath [music] work done now I No rush, no drag. [music] Right time, full snap. Clean set up, clean click. [music] Execute like a pro.
That's it. Clean set up.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Join the discussion
No comments yet. Members, share how you are reading this.