In short: The ParadiseTeam sees Bitcoin sellers micro capitulating again, with spot smart money absorbing the pressure and a bullish RSI divergence forming. Simon holds a bullish lower time frame stance while the 78,000 to 79,800 support zone holds, giving room for a push toward 90,000. But stays bearish on the weekly.
Can Bitcoin rally back to $90,000?
Track it live: our Crypto Fear and Greed Index updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
Simon says the bulls have a real opportunity here. Spot smart money is accumulating, the bears are losing momentum, and a bullish RSI divergence is building on the 4-hour chart.
If buyers reclaim the neutral daily moving-average zone and defend it on falling volume, the path opens for a final fifth wave toward $90,000. The liquidation and positioning data backs this up.
A push to $88,000 would clear $9.5 billion in short liquidation leverage, far more than the $2.6 billion below. That makes the upside the more profitable path.
Why is the $78,000 to $79,800 zone so important?
It lines up on every data point at once. The $79,000 level is the magical number Simon tracked from June. It also sits inside a Fibonacci cluster and a heavily defended VPVR shelf.
The 0.618 retracement sits near $79,700 and the 0.786 near $78,000, with $79,000 in the middle. This gives a support band from $78,000 up to $79,800.
The long liquidation cluster also stops at $79,000. As long as price holds this zone, Simon says the structure stays bullish, even with lower lows and lower highs.
What happens if that support breaks?
The bias flips bearish. If price breaks below the support zone and reclaims it from below as resistance, the bears take over. Simon then expects the long-awaited weekly correction toward $44,000.
The ParadiseTeam has held a bearish weekly stance for over a year, waiting for a final C-wave. The macro bottom target sits between $55,000 and $44,000.
Simon stresses this invalidation level. A move into the territory of the first and second wave would confirm the bears are picking up strength. Watch his Bitcoin analysis breakdowns for updates.
What probabilities does Simon give?
Simon lays out three scenarios. He gives a 60% probability of rejection from this zone. That move would start the macro correction toward $44,000.
He puts 30% on a reclaim of the resistance zone. That would extend the fifth wave to $99,000 before the rejection and exchange of hands begins.
The last 10% is a low-probability reclaim of $99,000 into support. That path leads to reaccumulation and a new all-time high near $169,000, which Simon sees as unlikely.
How does the ParadiseTeam think about trading this?
Through process, not outcome. Simon says short-term trades are random, so he focuses on executing a back-tested system trade by trade. Emotional discipline carries you through losing streaks.
That is why the ParadiseTeam puts capital preservation first. If you cannot survive short-term volatility, you cannot last long enough to catch the profit streaks.
Inside Paradise VIP, the team positions around these levels when enough confirmations line up. One confirmation is a fresh support holding above the key zone.
Frequently asked questions
What level does Simon say Bitcoin must hold?
Simon says Bitcoin must hold the support band between $78,000 and $79,800, with $79,000 as the core level. It aligns with a Fibonacci cluster, a defended VPVR shelf, and the point where the long liquidation cluster stops. Holding it keeps the lower time frame structure bullish, even during lower lows.
Why is Simon bullish short-term but bearish long-term?
On the micro time frame, Simon sees spot smart money absorbing the selling pressure, like the September 15th setup that preceded a pump. On the weekly, he still waits for a huge realization of losses that has marked every macro bottom since 2011. That capitulation has not appeared yet.
What does the liquidation map show?
Simon points to a clear imbalance. A drop toward $79,000 would liquidate about $2.6 billion in long leverage, then little remains below. A push toward $88,000 would clear $9.5 billion in short leverage, with clusters finishing near $85,000, $88,400, and $90,000. That makes the upside the more profitable path.
What probabilities does Simon assign?
Simon assigns a 60% probability of rejection from this zone toward $44,000. He gives 30% to a reclaim that extends the fifth wave to $99,000 before a rejection. He places only 10% on a reclaim of $99,000 that pushes to a new all-time high near $169,000.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Bitcoin sellers micro capitulated yesterday the same way they have done it back on September 15th which was followed [music] by a Bitcoin pump. So can Bitcoin bulls take back control of this zone and [music] continue to push towards $90,000 again? Let's analyze the probabilities.
[music] [music] Hello ladies and gentlemen Baras. This is Amon from my crypto paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. On the shortened time frame, we can see that somebody is realizing losses.
Is it the smart money or the dump money? Let's analyze it because we need to understand that the last time on 15th of September, we have seen realization of losses. We have seen that was absorbed by the smart money, right? And Bitcoin afterwards pushed to the upside.
Yeah. So can something similar happen right now? So who is absorbing the selling pressure and is the selling pressure being absorbed? Well, we can actually spot that it is right. So on the CVD spot cumulative volume delta where we are tracking only the spot aka the smart money, we have seen over the past 3 days that we are creating higher highs and higher lows together with the price action.
So the spot money is going in actually and what we see for example on 4hour time frame is that we are creating on our RSI indicator MCP RSI intelligence that is injected by AI we are actually seeing that there is bullish divergences right so the price action created right here from this low to this low we can see clearly a lower low right but on the indicator we can see that we
have actually created a higher low. So the momentum is slowing down on the price action going lower. So the momentum is not as strong as it is on the price action. That actually tells us that the bears are losing momentum, right? And the same way as for example when the car going uphill, it starts to lose fuel, right?
It starts to slow down. Fuel is basically a momentum. When you are losing the fuel, the car starts to slow down and it can keep going higher and higher, but it starts to slow down. It starts to lose the momentum and then the fuel is gone and it basically the gravity starts to play out and the car is going downhill right in an opposite direction.
And something similar is happening right now to the Bitcoin bearish price action. The price action keeps pushing lower, but the momentum is already decreasing. And that's what's creating this exaggerated bullish divergence. All right. So the bears are losing momentum and the bulls usually have great opportunity to start and pick up and take over the price action.
Given that this is actually increasing the probability that the bulls could have right now a great opportunity to start reclaiming on the daily time frame the moving average trend line and taking back over this zone that was previously working as a resistance then for some time as a support and right now it's a neutral zone.
We can assume that there is some resistance. However, it is not yet reclaimed and that is why we have put white color on it. It's a right now neutral zone. Bears are not completely there yet, but bulls have lost it. All right. So, they need to take it back and defend it.
If they will be able to take it back and defend it, that means a nice push above it with increasement on volume and then reclaim. Basically, as the price action will retest this zone, there will be a decline in participation. So the volume will decline and bulls will show a great power in defending this area.
then the probabilities are that we will be able to continue in that final fifth wave towards that $90,000 and definitely inside of Paradis VIP we will be opening some great riskreward high probability long positions if we will get enough confirmations for such setups and one of the confirmation will be will be that we will be having a nice zone from this again a nice support zone and that will increase the probability
that this was just the lower degree fourth wave that we are right now still creating and then that the next impulsive move will take us towards $90,000. So more confirmations are needed. But right now we can clearly see that on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map there is a big imbalance.
Right? We can see that uh if we will push to the downside towards around $79,000 here we have one big cluster of cumulative long liquidation leverage. So we can push down to $79,000 to take over this those overleverag long positions, right? But then there's pretty much nothing afterwards.
And if we take a look at the price action that $79,000 perfectly, absolutely perfectly. First of all is the magical number right that we were spectating when we were bullish back in June on Bitcoin when Bitcoin was trading at $61,000. I've been telling you for for weeks, Bitcoin is about to push with the highest probability towards $79,000.
Then we have broke above it and right now we are trying to retest it as a support. This is going to be working as a strong support if we will hit if we will go there because on multiple time frames we can actually see that we are having a Fibonacci retracement level there.
First of all from the previous price action you can see it beautifully worked as a resistance multiple times as a resistance then as a support resistance resistance right here. Such an important level, ladies and gentlemen. On the 4hour time frame, we can clearly see from the historic price action.
This is such an important level. It's so defended by the VPVR because of all of the trading activity we have created uh below it or exactly below it. All right. So, take a look at the VPVR. So important level. So, we can naturally assume that it will be working as a great support.
Given that we also have there from analyzing the lower degree third wave two important Fibonacci retracement levels right the 0.618 we have already retested by pushing towards $79,700 and then below it we have the 0.786 that is sitting at around $78,000 and right in the almost right in the middle there is the $79,000.
So this is basically a zone. Upper boundary $79,800. Lower boundary, let's round it to $78,000. This is a very important support zone. And as long as we can hold it, we are in a bullish structure. Even though you are seeing lower lows and lower highs, we are in a bullish structure because we understand the larger trend, right?
And the larger trend tells us that there is much higher probability that right now we are we are in the higher degree fifth wave right which subdivides itself into five small waves. One two we have created right here three and the fourth wave is just a correction of the larger bull trend and henceforth because we need to complete the fivewave structure.
The next impulsive move should be to the upside and still the probabilities are going to be on the side of the bulls as long as we can hold this support zone. However, if we will start pushing below this support zone and we will reclaim it from below into a resistance then it will take us all right.
the bears can start taking over and we can start pushing much lower and we are starting with the highest probability the correction that we are waiting for on the weekly time frame that will take us towards $44,000 right so you know that since 121,000 there are some calling for the $44,000 and we are bearish on the weekly time frame for year and some extra months right so we are bearish we are
keeping bearish stance on the weekly time frame for a very long time for more than a year and we are still waiting for the final C-wave to be completed and in the intro I've been sharing with you this realization of the losses right but on the micro time frame all right because this is good but we need to also understand that for the macro it's not enough to create the macro bottom
right so we will take a look at it in a moment but let me get back to the Bitcoin liquidation map to that imbalance. All right. So here we can see that the cluster of cumulative long liquidation leverage will stop at $79,000 and you have just seen it perfectly synergize with the support that I have just shown you on the technical perspective right so pushing down towards $79,000 still bullish right we
shouldn't go below it but even though if we will liquidate some overlever long positions and we will push towards 79,000 during that still I will keep my bullish stance on the lower time frames. Okay, because I understand for the market makers this might be actually a profitable thing to do liquidate those overall link positions and then the path of least resistance will be to the upside okay and you can see it
clearly is much more profitable the bigger move to the upside because if we will start pushing the similar direction we will not liquidate $2.6 6 billion as if we will start pushing towards $79,000. But if we will push towards $88,000, we will liquidate $9.5 billion of cumulative short liquidation leverage.
There is a huge cluster right here that is finished at $85,000 and then the second one at $88,400 and it finishes around $90,000. All right. Then there is pretty much nothing afterwards. And again, it beautifully synergizes with the resistance that we are looking for for the final fifth wave.
As you can see at $90,000 from the price action perspective, it is still the market structure will be bullish because we understand even though if we will push towards that $79,000 and in fact even if we will have a wick towards that $78,000, the market structure of that five waves still is bullish given that we had very small first wave and secondary wave, right?
And we understand that the fourth wave can actually touch the top of the first wave. All right. What we cannot do is close the fourth wave below the top of the first wave. And we have been calculating the subways precisely right here also on the lower time frame in the previous videos.
Here I'm just showing you roughly but you know exactly precisely where's the top of the first wave, where is the bottom of the secondary wave. But from the technical perspective right now and for the sake of making this video as short as possible because I really appreciate your time and I don't want to uh keep you keep you stuck to to the screen right here.
I really want to just share with you how I think how we think how the paradise team thinks about trading in general and how we think about the market right now. So for sake of that let me just explain to you that very quickly that if we will start first of all if we will touch this it will still be above the top of the first wave.
So the market structure will remain bullish. All right. The only thing would be a problem if we would start going into the into the territory of the first and secondary wave which is like right here. And why am I actually watching this support zone is because of probabilities.
Right. So if you will start reclaiming from below this support into resistance, well the probability will basically increase the that the bears are picking up on strength and they can start taking over the price action development and then it will increase the price action that indeed we will start pushing into that price territory.
uh so this is just an early invalidation that I'm watching right now for the uh bullish structure invalidation for the bullish structure that we are right now watching on the lower time frames okay but we can see clearly the spot money is accumulating again right similar thing happened during the top right here they started to really push the the buy button aggressively that was the reason why on the CVD we have
seen higher highs and higher lows. So, and it was supported by the whales as well, right? So, we were watching the whales etc. So, this is bullish. Together with that, we have created the bullish divergence. And let me now just go quickly to the realization of those losses because on the micro time frame this is bullish given that we are seeing that is being absorbed this selling pressure by the smart money,
right? and the whales. But for the macro bottom that we are waiting for on the weekly time frame that I do believe will happen at around 55 to $44,000 in this zone, we still need to have on the net annualized profit and loss on the macro time frame.
We need to see a huge realization of those losses and we have not yet seen it. And we have always however seen it since 2011 during the macrobottom creations. As you can see the net earned profit and loss went below the zero capitulation level right for some time.
Then on the other side we have seen the spot money absorbing that selling pressure. The price action started to stilet. So we have not seen a huge lower lows during that. that confirmed that the absorption is happening and every single time 2015 as well 2019 2020 2022 this was the recipe for macrobottom creation and as you can see in 2026 we have not yet seen it during the bare market 2026 we
have seen some great lows but not yet the kind of magical recipe that since 2011 always told us all right the macro bottom is actually being formed. Okay. So there is needed a little bit more patient for that. So still the macro time frame for me has the same probabilities we will get rejected from 60% probability from this resistance zone where we can push towards $90,000 as well but it's still like
within this zone. So 60% probability that we will start rejecting right now towards $44,000. 30% probability that we will be able to reclaim this resistance zone that 90,000 and we will have this C-wave degree Cwave we will have of that high degree Cwave extended fifth wave and that will push us towards $99,000 and then we will start getting rejected towards that exchange of the hand zone basically when where the bad risk
managers are forced to sell and capitulate and realize their losses and the Smart money that were waiting for exactly this opportunity. They will start absorbing that selling pressure and therefore there will happen this kind of exchange of the hands. The bitcoins will start changing hands from the bad risk managers to the good risk managers that were exactly waiting for this opportunity as they always are since 2011.
And with paradise team we are monitoring this and in paradise sun VIP you see exactly how we are positioning based on that. So that's 30% probability and then very low probability very unlikely uh what what will happen but there is still 10% probability for that that we will be able to reclaim that $99,000 turn it into support here will begin the reaccumulation and then we will push towards the new alltime high
$169,000 that I believe will be the next important alltime high very low probability from multiple data points. This is unprofitable for the Wales. There is not enough market participation left to basically do that. There is not enough great global economy right now for that to happen.
Multiple data. I'm I'm trying to show you as much as I can in these videos, but for the sake of keeping those videos short, I cannot speak like for 5 hours about all of the data that is telling us that this is right now just 10% probability, right?
But these are the odds, ladies and gentlemen. So trade safe, trade with a professional trading strategy. Focus on the process, on the system that you have developed and back tested for more than three years that you are trading with and then focus just on executing your system trade by trade.
Don't focus on the outcome because short-term is random, right? So you need to focus on your process and if your if your system has an edge in the long run, you will be profitable. But do not let emotions involved. Every great system has losing streaks.
You need to be patient, disciplined. You need to have emotional discipline. You need to be strong in your mind to be able and you need to have belief in your system, right? To be able to go through losing streaks. So then once you start hitting the winning streaks, you will be able to recover everything back and make the money.
And then it's just repetition. Boring time. Nothing, nothing, nothing. 80% of the time. lose win, lose win, lose win, and then losing streak or winning streak. And that's where the portfolio starts moving. Right? If your system is great during the winning streaks, you will make much more money than what you will lose during the losing streaks.
Right? But individual trades completely random. Don't focus on that. Focus on your system, ladies and gentlemen. And that's why we are saying in my crypto paradise first of all why we are placing capital preservation on the first place because if you cannot survive the short-term volatility then you cannot live long enough to experience the profit streaks right that can happen few times in a year right so you need to you need
to make sure that you are following your process and don't focus on the on the outcome and that's the only way how to do it that's how professional poker players win. That's how professional blackjack players if they can count the cards win. They go aggressive when the odds are heavily on their side.
Then they stay defensive and then they have option also to fold their cards, right? And that's also how great businesses are working and that's also how professional crypto traders are working. So ladies and gentlemen, thank you for watching and enjoy the rest of your weekend and I will see you again on Tuesday.
Until then, take care. Cheers. Calm breath, clear eyes. [music] Work done now. No rush, no drag. [music] Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. [music] M clean set
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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