In short: Simon says Bitcoin has dropped to a final critical support that still holds its bullish structure, even after $900 million in long liquidations. The ParadiseTeam reads positive funding and crowded longs as bearish near-term. Simon stays patient, waiting to see lower bear volume before trusting any bounce toward resistance.
Did Bitcoin break its bullish structure?
Track it live: our live crypto funding rates updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
Simon says no, not yet. Price slipped below the channel’s lower trend line. He treats this as a possible deviation, not a confirmed break. The zone still holds Bitcoin inside a bullish structure. He wants a clean reclaim of that channel before trusting the bulls again.
The whales that supported the move higher are now driving price lower. They pushed it to the trend line on rising volume. The retest came on declining volume. For now that trend line acts as resistance until it flips back to support.
What do funding rates and liquidations signal?
Simon says over $900 million of long positions were liquidated on a roughly 4.9% drop from $84,000. Yet funding rates stay positive and longs remain crowded. He reads that as bearish. The path of least resistance points lower for now.
Longs that got liquidated likely reopened quickly. That keeps funding positive. Simon calls crowded longs with positive funding unhealthy for bulls.
When those longs reach break-even, many will close and sell contracts back. That selling adds pressure. You can track positioning on the crypto funding rates board. The squeeze probability index still sits near 20 to 30 percent.
Where are Bitcoin’s key levels now?
Simon says Bitcoin trades around $82,000 as he records. The 0.65 Fibonacci level at $81,000 is the near line to defend. Below that, $78,000 is the next support and the 0.786 retracement low. That level still sits inside the critical zone holding the bullish structure.
To the upside he maps three resistances:
- $85,000 from the ultra low time frame
- $90,000 from the medium time frame
- $99,000 as the next major resistance
On the weekly, Simon stays bearish and still points toward $44,000. See his wider Bitcoin analysis videos for that bigger map.
Is there a trade here, or is patience the play?
Simon says patience is the play right now. On the daily he sees no clean setup for bulls or bears. Momentum is already bearish with several divergences. A swing long would need a stop below $76,000, which he finds unattractive here.
Sound stop placement ties back to position sizing and capital preservation. He would rather wait for confirmation near $90,000 or a clear reversal signal.
He points to patience paying off elsewhere. ParadiseVIPs waited about 14 days before taking an altcoin trade on BLUR. It moved up 22% without leverage. Simon stresses that such trades are rare and scalping stays risky.
What would turn Simon bullish again?
Simon says the key signal is volume on the next correction. He wants much lower bear volume than the buyers showed on the way up. Fading sell volume would hint the bulls can defend the trend line. That would lift the odds of a bounce toward resistance.
Spot buyers, the smart money, supported the move and have not fully exited. The cumulative volume delta has not returned to its baseline. That tells Simon some still believe in higher prices.
On the hourly, the MCP RSI intelligence shows a weak bullish divergence. RSI reclaimed the 30 line and rose above its average. Simon calls this early, not yet an edge, and waits for more confirmation.
Frequently asked questions
How much was liquidated in Bitcoin’s drop?
Simon says over $900 million of long positions were liquidated on this small drop of roughly 4.9 percent from $84,000. He calls that figure not extreme but not small either. Many of those longs likely reopened quickly, which helps keep funding rates positive across major exchanges.
What is Simon’s target below if Bitcoin breaks down?
On the weekly time frame Simon stays bearish and points toward $44,000. He has held that view since Bitcoin traded below $121,000. He links it to a 2022 exchange of hands zone. He gives this outcome a 60 percent probability after a possible rejection near $90,000.
Does Simon see any Bitcoin trade right now?
Not on the daily. Simon says there is no clean edge for bulls or bears there yet. A swing long would need a stop below $76,000, which he finds unattractive. He prefers to wait for confirmation near $90,000 or a clear reversal signal before acting.
What was the ParadiseVIPs altcoin trade?
Simon says ParadiseVIPs hit a target on the low cap altcoin BLUR. It pushed up 22 percent without leverage. The team waited about 14 days for that setup. He stresses these trades are rare, scalping stays risky, and patience with discipline matters most for long-term results.
When is Simon’s next analysis video?
Simon says this is the Thursday video, the second of the week. He tells viewers to trade with patience and discipline and promises the next update on Saturday. Until then he watches for a reclaim of the channel and lower bear volume on any pullback.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Bitcoin has fallen to a final critical support zone that's holding it in a bullish [music] structure. On this small drop, over $900 million of long positions have already been liquidated, but the my crypto paradise [music] squeeze probability index still shows a higher odds of a long squeeze continuation.
So, can the bulls defend this zone or are the bears already in control? [music] Let's analyze [music] my cryptoiseise. Hello ladies and gentlemen. This is Son from my crypto paradise. Welcome back. It's great to here. Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week.
Previously we stated that as long as Bitcoin on the 15 minutes time frame can stay in this channel, the structure is bullish. We are with the highest probability in the final motive wave structure and we will push towards $90,000 before the larger correction that will with the probability take us towards $44,000.
So at this moment we can see that we have pushed below this lower trend line of this channel and does it mean that the structure is right now bearish? Are we about to start crashing lower? Did we break the structure not only on the 15 minutes time frame but also on the 1 hour, 4 hour and daily time frame?
Let's analyze or is this just a deviation? Let's take a look at it. So we need to understand a few things. First of all, here we have seen that the whales were supporting the push higher. Now we see that they are driving the push lower.
Here they have pushed this price action to the lower trend line. We were fighting the bulls and bears were fighting for some moment right here above the trend line but then we have seen a push with increase in volume below this trend line and then retest of this trend line but with decline in volume.
So this trend line is right now until we can turn it back into a support still even though the price action is now above it still acting as a resistance. Okay. So on this breakout we are trying to get back in that channel if we will be able to get back in this channel.
All right. And we will have a nice retest and turn it into a support. there will be a high probability that [clears throat] we can continue in a similar in a similar structure that we already analyzed in the previous video. But right now what are the probabilities of that?
So take a look on the on the volume. Let's take a look on the volume. So price action is pushing higher. We are creating higher highs, right? The volume is above the moving average volume trend line but right now we are creating a lower highs.
All right. So without me actually seeing how the correction is going to look all right I cannot say if this trend line will right now hold as a support or not. So what I want to see is once we start correcting back okay I want to see much lower volume from the bears than what we have seen from the bulls right here.
Right? So given that this is already bearish that we are having higher highs on the price action lower highs on the volume higher highs on the price action. I really want to see significantly lower volume from the bears on the push towards this trend line.
So if that's going to happen then we can take a look at what at some bullish trading tactics again. So bulls are right now weak on Bitcoin but on altcoins they are significantly stronger. For example with parism VIPs we have just hit our target for on our lookup altcoin blur.
All right, we have taken as you can see it pushed up without leverage by 22%. It's a low cup altcoin. However, we need to understand that and we have been waiting for this all right for around 14 days. All right, so in our scalping membership, we have not been trading at all for almost 14 days.
So this was a big patient game for us. All right, this profit that I have shared with you, we are not making such trades on daily basis. Sometimes as you can see it really take us very long time until we pull the trigger again.
All right and sculping is extremely risky but it was the probabilities were as risky as it gets on sculpin during this price action. As you can see the price action was extremely random for us. We have not had any odds higher for the bulls or bears or on any altcoin.
So we were waiting for 14 days maybe even slightly slightly more 14 days and before we pulled the trigger all right we were really going through this patient game which is very important for long-term profitable trading. All right. So, patience, disciplined and emotionally disciplined is extremely important.
And right now, waiting for a confirmation that we are reclaiming this lower trend line of that channel back into a support. All right. Is really important to wait for it with patience again. All right. So, until then, we can take a look what's happening during this push lower and higher.
So during this push lower what we have also seen is some important data from the cumulative volume delta right. So that's aggressive buying or aggressive selling. So what was bullish was right here when we have got actually support from the spot because this only shows us what the spot is doing and as we know spot usually is being used by the smart money right the big money and that is why it's
important to watch what the accumulative volume delta is doing on the spot. So here we have seen a great support for that bullish price action from the spot money. But then right here it stopped right and even though the price action were sliding slightly higher on the price action the cumulative volume delta already started to distribute.
So most of the buying pressure that finished right here got closed for little profit and then mostly break even. Some of that buying is still in even though we have went below the previous low. All right. So there we can see some spot money, some smart money still has some belief in higher prices because we can see we did not went back to the baseline right to that minus 5.9.
We still have some room to go. And if we will go back to the baseline, it will tell me all right of the money that were supporting this bullish market structure and it's still bullish this market structure. I will tell you why. Even though we have created lower low slightly, I'll still tell you in a minute why this is for me still bullish market structure.
And one of the reasons is that the spot money are still believing in higher prices and they have not fully exited. All right, after supporting the initial move of that bullish structure, they have not yet fully exited. And right now we can see a nice participation from aggressive buyers on the spot exchange on this candle which is again giving us some kind of nice data what the smart money is doing and
what we can expect from the price action from the medium time frame in the near future. So this is important what the spot money is doing. Another important thing is to understand what the open interest aka the future the the leverage the borrowed money what it's doing right and we can see the open interest is still mostly sideways however the positions that are in are still quite crowded on the long side
which is bearish okay so we have seen before this small drop by around 4.9% I think it was 4.9 yeah around 4.9% % we have dropped from $84,000 and before this drop the lock squeeze probability as you remember in the previous video was around at 20 30% right and still after this drop we can clearly see the probability percentage of continuation of this long squeeze is still around that and we can
clearly see that the funding crates are still quite positive. So still even though the positions that there are no new positions in the market the positions that are in at this moment some of them got liquidated as you have seen in the intro over $900 million worth of long positions got liquidated which is not extreme but it's not a little neither right so we can assume that the positions that got liquidated
quickly reopened their long positions and that is why the funding rates are staying positive which is not really healthy for the bulls because we can understand the bulls will have much harder time to keep on pushing the price to the upside because the path of least resistance is right now to the downside and I will explain why because if you are in a long position right and either you are holding your
long or you have reopened your long once you get back to break even or to some small profit you will start closing and taking your profit closing long position and what's going to happen is that you need to sell the contracts back, right?
And that put pressure on the price. So basically, it's much harder right now to keep grinding the price higher given that the longs are crowded and we can expect them to take profit or close their positions, right? Henceforth the path of resistance at this time it can change if we will get some nice push from the smart money.
But at this time the path of least resistance is lower. The next important support zone is at $78,000 and that is still within the critical key support that is holding the price in a bullish market structure and from a larger crash from the kind of crash that we expect is going to happen on the weekly time frame that will take us towards $44,000.
As you know on the weekly time frame, I'm still extremely bearish. I'm bearish for a year and something. I'm bearish. Basically, since Bitcoin was below $121,000, I've started to share with you this price action development that I believe will take us towards $44,000, right?
And this is the exchange of the hand zone that previously was back in 2022 right here, right in August. And we are still waiting from the smart money to do something what the smart money is doing every single time since 2011. And that is the absorption of the selling pressure from the forced capitulation of the dump money.
Right? So when we can see on the net annualized profit and loss chart that the dump money is forced to sell and they're actually starting to realize their losses and on the other side we see the smart money absorbing that selling pressure. And then we take a look at the price action that is starting to slow down right no more creating lower lows but we are kind of slowing down the bearish
price action. We can assume the exchange of the hands zone is happening. The exchange of the hands phase is happening and that's always how since 2011 the macro bottoms have been created. As you can see right now in 2026 we have not yet got below the zero capitulation line and there wasn't the forced selling and exchange of the hands happening.
So still the 60% probability is that we will start getting rejected from this resistance. maxed that $90,000 and we'll start pushing towards $44,000. That is still why I am keeping myself bearish on the weekly time frame. A 30% probability is that we can have the final fourth wave of this corrective ABC expanded flat pattern extended and we can push towards $99,000 which is the next important resistance and then start reject well
and the the lowest probability is that we will reclaim that $99,000. the smart money start reaccumulating for some reason right here and we will have enough market participation that will help us new market participation that will help us to push the price above the previous eye as you can see and understand logically this is right now the lowest probability but as a professional traders we need to be prepared for everything right
so however right now we are working with probabilities as a professional poker players we are working with probabilities that's the only thing how we can get an edge and if we follow the edge over and over again That's how we can make profit over the long run, right?
That's the only way. That's the only way. So, let's [clears throat] take a look right now at the lower time frame. So, daily time frame, we understand like we shouldn't be creating some swing plus bullish trading positions right now. Uh given that we would be catching on a small move, possible high probability move is towards that $90,000.
Given that we are right now at $82,000 and the stop loss would need to be below the fourth wave which is below $76,000. There are no really great swing plus bullish trading opportunities, right? We also understand that the momentum is already bearish. We have multiple bearish divergences on our momentum indicators.
So, I'm just waiting for better trading opportunity at that $90,000. If we will push there or if the market will show me, look, this was actually already the fifth wave. This is already a beginning of the first wave. If I will get the kind of confirmation that the motive wave structure is being created and we are invalidating the extended motive wave structure towards that 90,000 by going below and attacking the previous
lower degree first wave of this possible impulse. Right? That would basically mean that we are actually reclaiming from below that 0.786 F retracement low that is sitting at $78,000. Right? And we will create the five wave structure that will tell me look there are probably with the highest probability will not be any opportunity at $90,000.
Take a look right now as a hawk. Watch the price action the correction to the upside and if it's going to be in a corrective mode wave structure as you know from our website markettoparadise.com there are nine nine corrective mock wave structures right that will be a clear short trading opportunity.
So I will be trading that with bearish trading tactics and in anticipation that we will the next big move is going to be to the downside. Okay. So ladies and gentlemen right now however this is from the daily time frame perspective no probability for the bulls or bears from my perspective at least some nice trading perspect some nice trading opportunity but from the medium time frame perspective if we can defend the
0.65 65 Fibonacci retracement level at 81,000. There is given that we are right now already creating a bullish diverence on RSI. Still no edge. We still waiting for more confirmations, right? But this might be a great buying opportunity. This could be treated with bullish trading tactics upon more confirmations that we are creating the first wave and then on the secondary wave in anticip in anticipation that the third wave is going to
be in the in this reversal direction to the upside. This could be a nice buying opportunity upon confirmations which will nicely which will nicely confluence with the 1 hour time frame. As you can see right here the AI indicator uh the MCP RSI intelligence that the prop producers already have an access to is showing us weak but bullish divergence one out of five probability points.
[snorts] This for reversal given that we are at this important support zone is kind of nice right. We can see also this bullish bubble that is telling us momentum recovered from oversold. The RSI reclaimed the 30 line and rose above its own average.
So selling pressure is a fading which is increasing the bullishness of this bullish divergence. As you can see the price action created lower low. The RSI created equal to slightly higher low on this two touches. the more touches the higher importance you give it to that point.
Right? So very nice and this basically we have injected this with AI. So AI is actually creating this for you which is very smart and very useful. So right now what we are waiting for we can see the volume is bearish right on big bearish bar candles on the volume with every price action candle to the downside.
So what we want to see right now and what we are already seeing that with this bullish candles we can exceed the bearish volume. All right. And then on the correction and this is going to be the most important on the correction as I have told you in the beginning of the video.
Right. So right now we have some some bullish volume. Right. Some bullish volume. On the correction I want to see much lower bearish volume. If it's going to fade the volume with the price action going down and we will be able to hold above this lower trend line of this channel.
Well, it will increase the probability that the bulls are ready to defend this lower trend line and we can continue to go and start trending higher towards the next important resistances. The next important one from the ultra low time frame is $85,000 and from the medium time frame, you already know that we are looking forward towards that $90,000.
So, ladies and gentlemen, trade with patience, discipline, and I will see you back again on Saturday. Cheers. Calm breath, [music] clear eyes. Work done now. Right. No rush, no [music] drag. Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro.
That's it. M [music] clean set
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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