Bitcoin Higher High? Simon’s 79K Level Breakdown

Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.

Bitcoin bulls have been strong enough to push Bitcoin [music] from this support towards the next important resistance zone. Here the bears stepped in and punished all of the late long positions by pushing Bitcoin back [music] to the new important support zone. Now will the bulls be able to defend this area and create a new higher high?

Let's analyze the probabilities. [music] Hello ladies and gentlemen. This is Simmon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Thursday and that means that you're watching the second video of this week. Previously, we have stated why Bitcoin has much higher odds of pushing above this support zone than below it.

And indeed, we have touched our ascending trend line. And then on the next try, we even broke above it, touching almost our important resistance level on the ultra low time frame. However, on the medium time frame, we went slightly above the important resistance zone that previously we touched multiple times.

Were not able to go above it. But with this next push that saw a great volume since the beginning on the lower time frame, we were able to go above it. So, what does it mean? And can we right now hold this new support zone?

Let's analyze. with Paradise VIPs. We have actually taken almost target two on our Bitcoin long position. So, we have placed our target two at $85,190, ladies and gentlemen. And that was right below this resistance level, right? So, this resistance level is made out of 1.272 Fibonacci retracement and it's extremely important level sitting exactly at $85,300.

As you can see, we were not able to hit the second takerit target because there was some sell wall created and we went only as high as $84,850. Right? As you know with Paris VIPs, once we hit target one, we already place a stop loss to break even, right?

And we have been entering at $81,410. So given that we have already hit target one and we went back to our entry zone to around $81,339 right now from a swing trading perspective not from sculping perspective but from swing trading perspective we are right now not in that long position anymore but does it mean that Bitcoin is about to start crashing right now?

Let's analyze. Right. So we need to take a look what was happening behind the scenes or what actually right now is happening behind the scenes. So let's just briefly recapitulate what we see on the hard degree time frame. So on the hard degrees on the weekly time frame for example we are still extremely bearish right you know that since $121,000 we are waiting for that $44,000 before we start aggressively reaccumulate.

you know that we have been distributing our Bitcoin below $121,000 and around $19,000. Then we have reaccumulated something back at around $71 and $61,000. But once we have hit the magical number $79,000, right? As you know from the daily time frame perspective, the $79,000 was extremely important number.

We've actually distribute most of our Bitcoin back to USDT, right? But that's only our positioning strategy that we are doing only inside of Paris and VIP original membership in no other memberships. We are doing these kind of diversification shifts in our hard wallets.

When we are shifting from Bitcoin to USDT to PEXG which is digital gold depending on the market cycles on the weekly time frame the bulls would really need to convince me with more confirmations from the structure and also what's going on behind the scenes as you know we are watching the net analyze profit and loss chart which is one of the main indications for us to understand if the macro bottom is

in or not. So they would need to really push a lot of new data that would show me confirmations of this being a macro bottom. This what we have created at around 60 to $59,000. All right. So I don't have the confirmations henceforth.

But I'm still waiting for this exchange of the hand zone to be hit which is below 58 $59,000 and henceforth and therefore I'm not reaccumulating aggressively my Bitcoin back. It's not just my decision in a paradise team. We are having this kind of democracy.

So there needs to be more votes than just mine to do something as important as our hard wallet rotation where we are actually having most of our money in because we are compounding there our profits from the active trade in right like since 2016 basically.

So it's not just upon me but right now I'm not seeing confirmations and you know exactly from the previous videos the probabilities. So the probability still is 60% that we will start rejecting from this resistance zone towards $44,000. 30% probability that we will be able to reclaim this resistance and continue to push towards $99,000.

Therefore, having this fifth wave extended and the lowest probability is that we will reclaim this $99,000 resistance into support and continue towards the new alltime high that will be with the highest probability at $169,000. So that still stands. I'm still bearish on the weekly on the weekly time frame.

Let's take a look right now on the daily time frame. So let's zoom in into what we are actually creating in terms of price action development right here on the daily time frame. As you can see, we are creating the final fifth wave.

As we have established already in the previous video, I'm not looking to trade daily time frame with bullish trading tactics, focusing on bearish trading tactics and confirmations because I want to catch the next big move. And we can see clearly that the upside is limited by a important resistance $90,000 and then the key high time frame resistance zone that is around at $99,000.

So the upside is limited. However, the downside the downside from the weekly time frame perspective is having the major support zones uh much lower, right? So the riskreward will be much better on the downside. So that is why I'm focusing on a bearish trading tactics because the invalidation levels will be quite close depending on how we will play it.

If you will be more conservative, we will place it above $100,000. If more aggressive upon more confirmations, we might even place it just like here above $94,000 which is above the lower boundary of this resistance zone. And the downside is I will be catching the big move and the big move I want to catch towards the next major plus key support zone which is the $44,200 ladies gentlemen.

Right. So here we are actually seeing that we are completing with the highest probability the Cwave which is a multi-wave structure that means itself into five small waves 1 2 three and right now we are having the extended fifth wave. So this was the fourth and right now we are having the [clears throat] extended fifth wave which subdivide itself into five small waves as well.

So here we have got one two three and right now we are in the fourth wave and probably we are starting already the final fifth wave right of that hard degree fifth wave which will complete the hard degree Cwave of that expanded flat that is subdividing itself into three smaller waves A B C.

So it's very easy, very straightforward. We are just waiting for more confirmations right now to get into short position be it lower upon getting back below this resistance properly creating a nice impulse and then then catching the secondary wave the correction here. we might get a nice entry for a short position or if we will be able to push higher and this is indeed a fourth wave of the higher degree impulse

that means final fifth wave is coming right and we might be already actually creating first waves out of this impulse and we will describe that in the lower time frame. So there is a possibility also that uh we might get a better entry at around that $90,000 and then low probability but there is still a probability that we might continue to go higher and have this fifth wave even more extended.

It gets a little bit more complex but you know from the previous videos that would mean that what we are doing right now the impulse that's just the first wave of that hard degree fifth wave right so then a secondary wave comes and if that's going to happen I actually will probably look for even long positions on the swing trading like longer term swing trading uh perspective on the daily time frame

so very exciting the daily time frame let's right now take a look at this structure Sure. So, let's take a look on the 4hour time frame. But first of all, let's take a look what's going on behind the scenes right now during this crash to the downside.

And why am I actually bullish right now on the lower time frames still? Why am I still bullish and why I do still believe that the 79 key level will be defended, right? As we know from the lower degree perspective, the $79,000 is a key level.

All right. It's a key level to keep this structure in a bullish environment. If we will reclaim from below the $79,000 and turn it into a resistance, then the structure will be changing and it will increase the probability that we are changing the major like the hard degree direction and that would already make me to actively look for some nice short trading opportunity on the retest of this resistance zone at around

$82,000. So, let's take a look right now on the 4our time frame. what's actually bullish on the lower time frame. So from the fear and greed perspective okay as we have went to the downside with the price action uh the sentiment followed all right and we actually went from the number 80 which as you know I repeat that on many videos when you can confluence the number 80 with some important resistance

which we have done from the technical perspective it's working as a to-in signal this was on the 1 hour time frame on the lower time frames we have been entering this resistance zone Right. And as you can see, it worked. It confluenced perfectly with the technical level and the number area on our fear and greed index that you can find easily on our website market toolpads.com in our insights MCP insights tools.

Yeah. And afterward the sentiment started to crash drastically right with the price action. And right now we are touching the magical number 20. And as you can see back in October 18th when we touched the number 20 it worked perfectly as a bottoming signal given that we have actually been able to we have been able to confluence it with a proper technical level and the technical level the support is the same

that we are touching and we are getting to right now as well. It's still the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around $80 to $81,000. All right. So sentiment is fearful that means people are not really positioning themselves into long positions and they are either sidelines or entering new short positions.

All right. So majority of the people are bearish right now. They feel that the price will continue to crash. But so we usually know the majority of the people we know that they are handling 20% of the money in the market circulation. Right?

And then we have minority of the people we call them whales the institutions the big players right that are handling however 80% of the money that is circulating in the market and what we can see that the wells are doing right now they are it's like evenly split but they are a little bit more on the bullish side right so they are actually taking this crash as an opportunity and 56% of

these smart people they are of this smart money. 56% is buying only 44% is selling in the past 24 hours. All right. So this already is showing us some kind of divergence, right? So what we can assume from this is that maybe the smart money is using the dump money aka the retail money, the majority of the people as a liquidity, right?

So majority of the people right now are either getting out of their long positions right in a loss or break even and uh the smart money is using that exit liquidity and absorbing that selling pressure. Okay, we can see that clearly right here.

It's not extreme but there is some kind of divergence which we should definitely put some value in to that is bullish. That is bullish. It's not crazy bullish. I would not say that this is extremely bullish because the divergence is not that heavy.

All right, the divergence is not that heavy. But we can clearly see that the whale pressure index on multiple time frames is suggesting that the whales are actually not panicking right here. They are absorbing that selling pressure. They are using that selling pressure as opportunity to buy back or buy without creating some kind of slippage.

Right? So we understand that when we are handling a lot of money creating some moves in the market is very easy right. So in order for you when you buy with your millions right not to create some big move in the market up or down depends if you on if you are buying or selling you need to actually get a lot of people to buy from you right so essentially what these

whales and institutions that are handling a lot of money need to do is to wait for the opportunity when other people are in a selling climax. Okay, they are selling heavily and the whales can absorb that selling pressure. So they can really put a lot of money in without moving the market much, right?

That's how they are able to stay under the radar, right? They can really put a lot of money in the market without moving the price. Well, and afterwards they can either push some bullish news in the market or create some manipulation in the market that will suggest that the price action is bullish, right?

And then at the top again the retail comes in and the whales are very comfortable have like nice situation to again dump their backs without moving the market. Right? So that's pretty much that's like easily described what the institutions and whales and smart money need to do in order for them to make money because if they would not care about what the majority of the people are doing or if they wouldn't

care about the liquidity then they would just buy right well and if somebody else would already buy right here like the retail majority of the people they buy right and they pump their bags and they don't want to do that because if they pump their backs, the retail, the dump money will start taking profit right here, right?

And the whales will have very hard time to make some money, right? So we need to understand that at the end of the trends, right? If it's like a bottom or a top, usually retail is wrong and smart money is right in the middle of the trends, right?

We understand that we need the retail to help us to push the price further, right? So whales and retail is pushing together and in the end of the trends again at the top the retail is usually wrong and the smart money is right.

So this is just simplified what we are watching why we are watching the whales how we are watching the whales as a mass and how we are watching the retail as a mass and how can it help us to understand what one side versus the other side is doing.

So this is the whales. Let's take a look right now quickly on the funding crates. So we can clearly see that on the on the retail heavy exchanges we actually getting into neutral funding crates and even slightly negative which is confirming that the market is right now in a sentiment of fear because negative funding crates means that there are more short positions than long positions.

It's not extreme. It's not extreme ladies and gentlemen, but we can see that on some of the altcoins, especially on the retail heavy exchanges, they are getting into our cold numbers, which is suggesting a short short squeeze. It's not drastic. It's not an extreme, but it's just some kind of data that can help us to understand probably it's not really smart to right now put some heavy short position in.

Maybe more confirmations are needed and maybe the path of freeze resistance is actually to the upside right now not further to the downside which doesn't mean we cannot go lower but as a professional traders we are just working with probabilities right so we understand even though this would be right now only 5% probability that we would start crashing from here it's still that 5% and the short term is completely random right

so it can happen it can happen. So that is why money management is extremely important. As a professional traders, what we focus on is short-term survival. That is the moto of my crypto paradise is capital preservation. Because if you cannot protect your capital from the short-term randomness and from the short-term volatility, even though if you have the best trading system in the world, you will not be able to survive long enough

so that system can make you money. Okay? Because the short term is random, right? And you can go through some losing streaks because it's completely random, right? And if you are not able to protect your capital during these losing streaks, then you are not able to make all of that money with a great system that has an edge during winning streaks because you cannot survive the short-term volatility.

You cannot survive the short-term randomness. So money management is extremely important. That's why we are working with probabilities and we are just focusing on the process not on the outcome. We understand that also a bad trade, right, can win us a lot of money the same way a gambler can win a lot of money in a casino.

But does it mean that a gambler has a great system? Well, probably not, right? The game is set up against him. The reason he won was just because of luck, because of short-term randomness. But we know, you and me know that if the camera continues to go to the casino over and over again, day by day, and he will be doing the same thing like betting on random numbers or pushing the

lever on a slot machine. Sometimes he wins, sometimes he lose, right? But because the edge is always against him, the longer he plays, the higher probability he will starts losing, right? Then we have however the professional traders that are playing with a system that has an edge right so we understand short-term is volatile but the longer they play the higher probability the probabilities will play out and they will make money in

the long run so it's the opposite right so gambler the longer he plays the higher probability he will lose everything the professional trader the longer he plays the higher probability that he will make money and that is why we just need to stay in the game long enough in order for us to be able to make money.

And that's why we need to protect ourselves from the short-term randomness. It's just about then discipline, focus, patience, and emotional discipline to be able to stay with our system that we have developed, back test it, and we know that has an edge and then just follow it over and over again.

Very boring, not exciting as as a gambler that won randomly on some number in roulette. But we need to pro proceed like this if we want to be long-term profitable professional traders. Let's take a look right now on the RSI. Right? So you know that pro paralers already have these two indicators that are actually very helpful because we can understand what is happening right now with the push to the downside.

Okay. So during the push to the downside how that happened. All right. So we can clearly see if you have read the article that we have pushed in our MCP free university and also in our guides about this MCP positioning indicator, you know that if the bar candle right here looks to the downside and the bar is hollow, basically the short positions were closing, right?

So as we went to the downside, the short positions were closing and right now we can already see on this line that the long positions already went back in. Okay, so short positions were closing that were opening right here. So as you can see on these two bars, the short positions opened.

All right, so new positions went in. All right, together with the price action. So most of the short positions went in right here and right here. Right? Then longs started to close right here. That's why the bar is hello. Moved with the price and then this bar and this bar shows us that the short positions started to close together with the price.

I mean together with the price the shorts closed. So these short positions already got closed right here. Majority of them. And then we can see on this line that the longs started to get back into the market. Right. So right now we are getting towards unusually long heavy level.

All right. So long position started to get back in and we can see also that right now on the bars we can clearly see that the price action is slowing down because of the long positions are coming back in to the market which is bullish given that we understand that the long positions are not driven by retail but by the smart money which we have already explained few minutes ago.

Okay. So this is very nice and something similar we have actually spectated previously right we have spectated something previous something similar previously on the lower time frames as you remember so let's take a look right now what is happening on the 15 minutes time frame.

So something similar was happening right here as well, right? As the price action went to the upside, the longs were closing and then basically the longs started to open on the price decline, right? And then we can see that the more long positions were getting closed as the price went towards the important level right below our resistance $85,300.

Right. And right now on the price action that has moved to the downside, the long positions went back in aggressively while not moving the price. So the price is still staying at the support and we can assume based on what we have watched on the funding crates of fear and greet index and the well tracker that these long positions are not the dump money.

Right? So at this moment I want to see more confirmations from the lower time frame. I want to see this bullish divergence to start playing out. You can clearly see that the machine learning, the AI still telling us on the 15minut time frame that the momentum is bearish right on the RSI.

Still, even though we are creating so far, it's not confirmed yet, but so far you can see equal equal low to a little bit higher low on the price action and lower low on the RSI indicator. Okay, but it's not confirmed this bullish divergence just yet.

what we can see an early sign that the momentum is pushing further to the downside. So somebody is actually exhausting himself on a short side and we actually can understand because of the sentiment that's probably retail who is pushing right now. So that's creating the momentum but the price action is no longer following right.

So we are not creating a lower low as on the RSI. So the momentum is there, somebody is still pushing, right? Somebody wants the price lower, but the price action is no longer following. So somebody's absorbing that selling pressure probably and we have already established that this with the highest probability the smart money, the whales, right?

So this we already see couple of green dots something similar we have seen back in October 18th on our smart AI RSI indicator that we have developed and prop paralers have already access to it where we have seen multiple green dots and early signs right that the we we can see a reversal and right now it's telling us momentum recovered from oversold the RSI reclaimed the 30 line and rose above ove

its own average. So selling pressure is fading. Selling pressure is fading. In a strong downtrend, the RSI can lose 30 again. So treat it as early evidence, not a buy signal. Exactly. More confirmations are needed. Right now we can see that we are flipping between bearish and no edge.

So once there is at least one probability bullish point and we have a confirmed bullish divergence, it will be another bullish signal for a possible bullish reversal, ladies and gentlemen. So the conclusion is I'm not selling even though like you have seen in the beginning of the video, we have went out of our long position after taking some profit with the stop- loss at break even.

So we are waiting for I can I can actually release this data. I'm I'm not sure about scalping but in original swing trading membership we are not yet not yet back in a long position. We are waiting for more confirmations but what I can also tell you is that we are definitely not right now in a short position.

For that I would need to have more confirmations. So at this moment it seems like we are actually creating first wave of that hard degree fifth wave impulse created right here secondary wave and right now we are creating already the hard degree third wave.

So as long as we can hold above this support zone where the key level is right now 80 to 81,000 there is we are push we are about to start pushing higher. This is right now highest probability for me that we will start recovering from here.

All right, I need for opposition. However, I need more confirmations. What is also possible and I would say this is like around 40% probability that we can go towards $79,000 because we know that we have this liquidation cluster there, right on Bitcoin exchange liquidation map.

If you push towards $79,000 towards going there, we can liquidate around $4.33 billion worth of cumulative long positions. Still there is imbalance between upside and downside. Much more we will liquidate though if we push to the upside. But this might be hunted right.

So if you plan some swing plus long position, I would probably place my stop loss below that level. Okay. What is possible, however, is that we can push towards that $79,000 without breaking the bullish market structure, right? And then start recovering. That would however mean that the hard degree fourth wave is extended and we are still trading in the double fee that is being extremely prolonged right now.

But still pro but the least probable scenario is that we will start pushing down from here. we will reclaim from below the $79,000, turn it into resistance, and then continue to push lower. That's the lowest probability right now. If that's going to happen, I will be looking for some short trading opportunities at that $79,000 retest.

So, right now, ladies and gentlemen, I would avoid extremely overleveraged short positions definitely without more confirmations. We are focusing on bullish trading tactics and there is still much higher probability that before some bigger correction to the downside we will push towards that $79,000 and then then down.

All right. So this is right now my bias what I'm seeing on the market right now. I hope that helped and I will see you again on Saturday. Cheers. Calm eyes now. No rush. No [music] drag, right time, full snap. Clean set up, clean click.

Execute like a pro. That's it. M [music] clean set