Bitcoin cycle valuation, live: MVRV, NUPL and the Z-Score, read per cycle
On-chain valuation asks a simple question: how much profit or loss is stored in every coin at today’s price versus the price it last moved at. MVRV and NUPL measure that stretch; the classic reading uses fixed thresholds. The trouble is that each cycle has topped at a lower reading than the last, so the old static lines stopped firing. This page reads the same metrics through a per-cycle rolling percentile, so an extreme still means extreme, and it shows the comparison openly.
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Valuation Gravity estimated
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chance bitcoin’s next 30 days close lower, when cycle valuation looked like this
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Valuation now
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percentile of MVRV within its own rolling four-year range
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For context
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bitcoin’s plain 30-day down-rate across the whole record since 2011, with no valuation condition. The gravity read above is measured against this baseline.
The current MVRV Z-Score is the published bitcoin-data.com value when it is fresh, otherwise the frozen reconstruction of the Bitcoin Research Kit series on the same published scale (correlation 0.985 over the four-year overlap). The full-history chart and the cycle comparison below always use that reconstruction.
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Price through the valuation lens
The valuation history is still building.
Hover any point on the chart: it lights every past day whose cycle valuation looked the same and reads what history did over the following ninety days. Click a lit point to travel there.
Bitcoin’s price on a log scale, colored by the classic NUPL zone at each point, from deep-loss capitulation through euphoria. Add NUPL, MVRV, the classic MVRV Z-Score or realized price as an overlay; switch range and resolution; drag to pan and scroll to zoom into any cycle. Source: Bitcoin Research Kit (bitview.space), with bitcoin-data.com as the daily failover. Each cycle has peaked at a lower NUPL and a lower Z-Score than the last, so the classic 0.75 NUPL line and the Z-Score line at 7 stopped being touched. That decay is exactly what the per-cycle percentile below is built to survive. The classic MVRV Z-Score line uses the published scale via a frozen reconstruction of the Bitcoin Research Kit series, correlation 0.985 over the four-year overlap with bitcoin-data.com.
Why the old thresholds went quiet
At each cycle’s price peak, here is what the classic static lines read versus our per-cycle percentile. A green check means the line fired; a cross means it stayed silent through the top.
| Cycle peak | MVRV Z-Score | classic Z > 7 | NUPL | NUPL > 0.75 | our percentile | ≥ 95th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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The honest read: since 2011 the classic MVRV Z-Score has not risen above 7 at a single cycle top on this frozen reconstruction of the Bitcoin Research Kit series (correlation 0.985 over the four-year overlap with bitcoin-data.com), and NUPL above 0.75 went quiet after 2017. Our per-cycle percentile flagged three tops the static lines missed, but it is compressing too, reaching the high eighties at the last two peaks rather than a clean extreme. That is precisely why we publish a probability with a wide band instead of a binary top light.
What history did from each zone 30-day forward
Every day since 2011 sorted into its valuation percentile band, with how often the next 30 days closed lower and the median 30-day move. These are measured frequencies, not forecasts.
| Zone | Percentile band | Days | Closed lower in 30d | Median 30d move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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What we will and will not put a number on
The metrics, the zones, the charts and the cycle comparison are measured facts, read straight from the on-chain data. Those are the page, and they are not up for debate.
Valuation Gravity is a single honest frequency: since 2011, when cycle valuation sat where it sits now, how often bitcoin’s next thirty days closed lower. We print it with a wide band and an estimated label on purpose. The forward windows overlap heavily and valuation moves at the pace of cycles, so the honest sample is far smaller than the raw day count, and the band shows exactly how much we do and do not know. Two things follow. Bitcoin has drifted up across its history, so even at rich valuations the odds of a down month rarely tip past even; gravity shifts the odds, it does not flip them. And valuation is a pressure gauge, not a timer: the most extreme readings have sometimes preceded a final blow-off rather than an immediate top. It is a historical frequency, not a forecast, and never advice.
On-chain valuation, defined
MVRV
MVRV is market value divided by realized value: the total price of every bitcoin now, divided by the price each coin last moved at on-chain. Above one the average coin is in profit; below one it is underwater. It is the single cleanest measure of how stretched valuation is.
NUPL
NUPL, net unrealized profit and loss, is the share of bitcoin’s value that is unrealized profit. It carries the same information as MVRV on a zero-centred scale, traditionally painted into sentiment zones from capitulation below zero to euphoria above 0.75.
MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score standardises the gap between market value and realized value. Its classic reading called a cycle top when it rose above seven, a threshold the last two cycles never reached, which is why a fixed line has become unreliable. It is shown on the published bitcoin-data.com scale, with the deep history reconstructed from the Bitcoin Research Kit series (correlation 0.985).
Realized price
Realized price is the average price at which the circulating supply last moved on-chain, the network’s aggregate cost basis. Market price above it means the average holder is in profit; below it marks the deep-cycle floor.
Valuation zones
Valuation zones are bands of how cheap or expensive bitcoin is. MyCryptoParadise reads them as a rolling four-year percentile rather than fixed cutoffs, so an extreme still means extreme even as each cycle tops at a lower absolute reading than the last.
Valuation is the stored energy. Flows are the release.
Valuation tells you how much profit or loss is sitting in the ledger. It does not tell you who is acting on it. For that, read the ETF creation and redemption tide and the Coinbase premium alongside this page. These reads are context, not forecasts.
For the ParadiseTeam, knowing where bitcoin sits in its own cycle is one of the layers behind every decision we make, and every trade we share inside ParadiseFamilyVIP. Seats stay deliberately limited.
Check seat availability →How to read cycle valuation
Four ideas behind the picture above.
Valuation is stored energy, not a trigger
MVRV and NUPL tell you how much profit or loss is sitting in the ledger, which is potential energy. Nobody is forced to act on it, so these metrics set the backdrop rather than time the move.
Each cycle tops lower than the last
Lost coins and a growing realized cap mean valuation peaks have declined every cycle. That is why a fixed line like Z above seven has gone silent, and why reading extremes per cycle matters.
The mid-range carries little signal
Between the extremes, valuation says almost nothing about the next month. Our zone table shows it plainly, and the honest page says so rather than dressing a flat reading up as a call.
Deep value is the cleaner edge
Historically the strongest tilt has come from the cheap end, not the expensive one, because bitcoin drifts up over time. Low valuation has more often preceded strength than high valuation has preceded weakness.