BTC Faces Rejection at $67K as ETH and SOL Take the Lead

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Bitcoin miner margin plunges to 4.67% at 2-year [music] low as production cost hits $61,000 with electrical cost estimated [music] at $49,000. Bitcoin miners continue to be under a lot of pressure. [music] When will they begin to realize their losses? Let's analyze. >> My crypto paradise.

>> Hello ladies and gentlemen, this is Crypto Paradise. This is Solomon from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. So, Bitcoin on the weekly time frame been facing this resistance.

In the previous videos, we have been expecting that this resistance will be hold and that this breakout above this moment average trend line is a fake out by understanding the price action. So, we have been explaining with the highest probability what is the reason that we will start seeing a sharp drop after we have start crushing.

Then we have been touching on the daily time frame a very important Fibonacci retracement level and henceforth have understood that there is a higher probability that we will start seeing a reversal in the opposite direction to the upside. And then in the latest videos, we have been also taking a look on the 4-hour medium time frames and we have been taking a look at the structure.

So, we have recognized that the market is actually having an inhale, then it's finishing an exhale, and then after it touches this support, we will start seeing another inhale. And in the last video, we have been taking a look and talking about this high right here and we have been understanding how very important, how extremely important it is for Bitcoin to start breaking above this for us to really increase the kind

of likelihood for the market to increase this likelihood that we might continue to go to the upside and potentially to our medium time frame targets that we have been also taking a look at in the previous video. So, right now if you take a look right now on the 4-hour time frame.

We can see that we are actually trying to break above the previous high, but we have not done so just yet. So, does it mean that we will start crashing to the downside right now? We will analyze in this video. So, let's have a look.

Also, what's going on, ladies and gentlemen, on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map. All right, so, you know that we are having a huge imbalance, right? So, if this is basically the opposite of what we have been experiencing when Bitcoin was right here. So, if we would start pushing to the upside above this resistance, which would be not only hard because there were loads of sell walls above us, but also we understood

that the price action would not be smooth because there wasn't any liquidation levels below above us. Well, there were, right? But there was a huge imbalance because below us, if we would start pushing back below this moving average trend line, below us we have seen the trigger zones, right?

There were like concentrated liquidation and if we would do this move, we have understood we would liquidate $16 billion and above us, if we would start pushing to the upside through this resistance, which not only was hard, right? Because there were a lot of sell walls above us, also technically this was very strong resistance made out of confluences of many important indicators and levels and we would also liquidate only $5 billion.

So, huge imbalance, right? And if we take a look right now what is going on on on the exchange liquidation map, we can see that we are again having an imbalance, but in an opposite direction, right? So, if we will start crashing to the downside, if we will start from here, from the current market price, start crashing to the downside, that would mean that we would need to break below the confluences

that are right now making a very strong support, right? So, we are having descending trend line right here, a a very important Fibonacci retracement level right here. It's a structural support from previous price action as well. Also, we are having a loads of buy walls below us.

Market makers are really securing the price action from falling further. And also, we would liquidate only $3 billion, all right? So, there is not much big opportunity for any domino effect, right? But, let's have a look on the opposite side, right? If you will start pushing to the upside, ladies and gentlemen, and to our key level that we have been looking at in the previous video, we will liquidate almost $20 billion.

So, it's a massive imbalance, right? And take a look at this cluster right here. Just very close to the current market price, we are already starting to have a big concentration of basically short position liquidation levels, all right? And if you will start hitting and going through this, all right, it will liquidate $3 billion.

So, only this move, all right, from the current market price at around $64,000 towards $66,000, which is which is basically $2,000 move, all right, we will liquidate more. We will liquidate $3 billion. We will liquidate more than if we would be pushing from the current market price $10,000 in an opposite direction, all right?

So, you can see if you will start from the current market price, $64,000, pushing down $10,000 lower towards $54,000, we will liquidate $2.67 billion worth of long positions, all right? So, you can see that the probabilities are pretty much higher that we will start pushing through this.

It will create this kind of domino effect, and we might be going much higher, right? So, not only it's uh right now falling to the downside. Technically, very low probability because we have the big buy walls below us. We have the strong technical levels below us.

Very strong support, right? But also, nobody like very little people very little amount of people are willing to bet on the long side. Most of the people are either sidelines right now or they believe, all right, [clears throat] that majority of the people believe that the market will continue to push to the downside.

That's what creates all of these clusters of liquidations because people are very massively positioned in short positions, all right? Not from the current current current price, but earlier. They have been placing a lot of short short positions. We have been looking at it during monitoring the open interest that a lot of people been opening short positions around this zone right here.

And a lot of them already trapped, right? So, you also understand that if a lot of short positions are trapped and they are managing their risk well, they can also align with their margin call. That means adding more funds to their position. They can keep on riding with the price going to the upside without getting liquidated, right?

But they are going to make it just worse, right? Because once the market starts doing the domino effect, it will be very easy for the price to keep smoothly going to the upside, right? Because how is that domino effect happen? When you liquidate a short position, basically, you need to buy the contracts back, right?

And it automatically puts a pressure on the Bitcoin price. That's what creates the domino effect because then you have enough fuel to start pushing towards the next important liquidation cluster, right? And then the same thing happen. You need to buy the back the contracts and it creates another fuel to push higher.

So, I would be very aware if I would be right now in over leverage short positions. I would not be feeling comfortable, all right? that's my opinion right now in the market. We have been talking in the previous video also about SpaceX, right?

So, I've told you that with the highest probability it's going to be pump and dump. I hope you are safe, that you have not been risking a lot of money on the expectation like a lot of people had that it will just continue to go to the moon.

So, we have been talking about it. We have understood that the probabilities are much higher that the insiders will start dumping on the the retail, right? And as you can see, SpaceX right now is from the high 10% lower. All right, so inside of the team we are we are speculating about something that is called Black Monday that might happen.

Because when you take a look at the history, I don't have the charts prepared for this video, but when you take a look at the history, when when these big companies created IPOs, right? Like it's always been it's always been at the top of the market cycles of the bull runs in stock market in in American stock market, yeah?

And these IPOs usually been been pushed at these these times because when there's a lot of heat, a lot of FOMO in the stock market, a lot of people are willing to risk, right? So, that's the best time to like push some IPO.

And usually usually it's because of the liquidity. Because the insiders that have been basically like friends with Elon Musk, right? And they have been basically buying the shares of the SpaceX when it was not public yet, they need liquidity to dump on somebody, right?

And if you would be pushing the IPO in a bear market, right? Or in the middle of the bull market, like there is not enough not enough liquidity coming from the retail, right? That would allow you to dump on your bags, right? So, it's the same thing what we have been discussing with Bitcoin.

When you are a big institution, basically a big entity handling a lot of money, you can be individual, you can be an institution, doesn't matter. If you are handling a lot of money, the only thing you don't want to, right, is that when you make a move to create some slippage, right?

Because that's taking your profit. If you are a trader, you don't want to also create some some attraction in the market from trading bots, like this kind of algorithmic trading bots. You don't want to put attention on yourself from the whales, etc. Basically, when you buy and when you sell, the best thing for you is to make sure that you are not moving the market at all.

And you can also hide it well in the order book, right? So, that is also the reason why in Parison VIP we are limiting the seats, because in the inner circle where we are trading as a Paradise team and with few of our clients, we basically don't want to attract our attention to whales and to this kind of algo algorithmic bots, because they would be exploiting our stop losses.

They would be front running us when we are trying to exit, right? And they are doing these kind of things all the time. So, what we can do as a professional traders is to make sure we are not being under the radar. Like we we are being away from the radar radar of those of those bots.

Not only those bots, but also these other smart smart traders that are looking to do the same thing what we are doing, right? Exploit other traders. So, this is very important if you are trading with a lot of money to have liquidity to dump on, right?

So, that is why these kind of IPOs usually happen and happened in the past of these big companies, of these huge companies at the top of the long-term cycle selection, gentlemen. So, usually what happened after IPO, there was a huge huge crash coming into the stock market.

I'm not saying it must happen, but the probabilities are just suggesting that the small stock market is overheated and like the probabilities of going much much higher, all right, is is very low. It's much lower than that we will see some crash in US stock market.

So, I would be very careful with my stocks, all right, and I hope that you are safe from the SpaceX. This is exactly the pump and dump we have been talking about that with the highest probability will happen. Unlike Bitcoin, because on Bitcoin we have been actually bullish, right?

So, we have been taking look on this structure, ladies and gentlemen. So, let me just take it from the weekly time frame very quickly. I will just repeat it. We are already overtime in this video. So, we will be doing that very quickly.

So, basically what we are expecting right now, you know that we have been distributing our Bitcoin right here at 109,000 dollars and then close to 121,000 dollars. And since then, we have been expecting that with the highest probability Bitcoin will start crashing towards this zone, 55 to 44,000 dollars, right?

Because we are repeating all the time these kind of market cycles. If you are in the in the market for a long enough, you know exactly that the market cycles are just repeating themselves, right? So, what we are experiencing right now is the exactly same thing what we have been experiencing back in 2022.

And before I go to the price action, let me just remind you one thing and I will a little bit connect to what I have been saying in the in the intro. And that is that the Bitcoin miner companies are getting under a lot of pressure, all right?

So, here the electrical cost uh the electrical cost of Bitcoin back in 2020 was was at around 25 to 30,000 dollars, right? Right now, we have been understanding that it's at around 48,000 dollars, right? And then you also I've been talking about the the kind of average of what what kind of like the margins are for for the Bitcoin companies, but you need to understand that the average is made out of

huge Bitcoin mining companies, also the mid like mid-size mining companies, and also the very small Bitcoin mining companies. And you need to understand that the biggest ones, they are actually having their cost much lower because of how big they are. So, you they can decrease the cost of mining the Bitcoins because they have bigger factories, etc.

where they place the Bitcoin mining machines, etc. So, basically, they have lower cost and they have a higher margin, right? But the middle ones and smaller ones, they are not as efficient as the big ones. So, you need to understand that the margin I've been sharing in the intro of this video, that was the average, all right?

So, usually, the biggest mining companies, they survive. They have a big trouble but they survive. But the middle and small ones, they are usually the ones during these bear markets that are going bankrupt. And then, they need to start realizing their losses, all right?

And also, it's the same thing with institutions, right? So, we've been talking about that. For example, we've been talking about it multiple weeks ago that MicroStrategy is one of the companies that were not able to manage their risk well, right? And right now, they are in a very bad situation.

And nobody like, you know that Michael Saylor, if you're watching him like me, you know that he always been talking about like MicroStrategy doesn't have an exit strategy, right? We will never sell, etc. Well, and it seems like they are starting to create some kind of a PR that will prepare people that they will actually start selling.

So, for example, he was just recently in Prague. Watch this video right here. If you're in our MCP News free Telegram channel, you have already seen this, but watch this. >> I refused to do it because a troll on Twitter said, "Hey, hey, hey, you said never sell your Bitcoin." Okay, fine.

I'll destroy a billion dollar hundred billion dollar company so that I can sell my Bitcoin. You know, well, the point is I said to By the way, I said to you, "Never sell your Bitcoin." I never said that the company wouldn't sell its Bitcoin.

And anybody that's been listening to our earnings calls or reading our disclosures or has half a brain knows for the last 5 years we've been very clear that of course we sell the Bitcoin if we have to. >> We sell the Bitcoin if we have to.

I didn't say I didn't tell that you that we will never sell. I told you to never sell. >> [laughter] >> I mean like if if would somebody ask me how exit liquidity looks like, I would show them this video because obviously like he he wants you to be the exit liquidity.

He doesn't want you to sell, right? So, this is exactly what I'm talking about. Like these big companies that didn't manage their risk well and there is much more than MicroStrategy. And I think they are also on the better part. I feel like they've been buying basically at highs, at lows, doesn't matter, but like average is at around $75,000, I think.

[snorts] So, it's exactly aligned with this moving average trend line. So, right now they're already like in losses, but what we can see from this chart right here, the net unrealized profit and loss, they are not yet taking the MicroStrategy and other big institutions a lot of losses, right?

So, we have been monitoring that in every every bear market how it basically finishes is that we need to create the major bottom somehow, right? And how is it usually created is that these kind of entities that have not been able to manage their risk well, they are forced to sell and it's the Bitcoin mining companies.

Basically, you're forced to sell, otherwise you will go bankrupt anyway, right? But you need to pay the bills, etc. Basically, you're forced to sell. Those entities are forced to sell, right? So, we are always watching that the major Bitcoin bottoms are always made by these entities selling in a loss, right?

And then the smart money that been waiting for it actually absorbing the selling pressure, and that's how the major Bitcoin bottoms been always created, ladies and gentlemen. So, that is why we are watching the trading volume, only the spot one, not the derivative, right?

And why we are also watching this graph, net unrealized profit and loss. And you know that I will be sharing this with you on these videos. We are monitoring that together, and right now we can see that we are going close, we are getting close to the zero.

If I zoom it for you, if you zoom in, so we can see that some of the loss taking is already happening, and we are getting close to zero. Zero is here, right? So, we are getting very close to the zero, but we are not yet having the absorption of the of the selling pressure, even though we already saw that there have been some some big boys going in, right?

So, they are already using the selling pressure to nicely like accumulate without moving the market, right here, right here as well. Might be just short-term trading. We are monitoring that very closely with the Paradise team, but definitely the Bitcoin bottom is not yet in.

In my opinion, the probabilities like it might be in, right? But the probabilities are so low. So, when I say that I don't think the the the bottom, the macro bottom is yet in, I'm talking about probability. So, for me, now it's like 95% probability that the major bottom is not yet in because we have not seen the big selling like forced selling pressure from these entities, right?

So, we always see a big concentration of selling volume that is being absorbed by the smart money. It's not yet happening. We are close to the zero point, but we are not yet in the extended red period. And by the way, watching the electricity cost is very important because you understand also the big companies the big Bitcoin mining companies will be forced to sell some of their Bitcoins once we start being

like below the electricity cost for some time, right? So, if they are not making money not even like on the Bitcoin that they mined and I'm not I'm not like counting in the expenses that are concentrated with it. It's not just electricity cost, right?

But when you start going below the electricity cost, it's extremely heavy because they're losing loads of money. So, it's like for at $48,000 and you know that my magical number is $44,000, right? So, always we are staying below the electricity cost, right? Where basically the Bitcoin mining companies are having like negative margins for some very like long period of time.

Not that much, might be like month, two months. So, they are actually forced to sell, right? Some of their Bitcoins even the big companies. And the ones that not been able to manage their risk well, the longer we stay here, the bigger in trouble they are, right?

So, I do believe the same zone in 2022 was right here at 24 and $16,000 where the distribution been happening and the reaccumulation for the smart money been happening. And when this zone the same zone was in 2018 right here around that $3,000 to $5,000.

I do believe that the same zone will be now in 2026 2027 in at around $55,000 so that's about this, ladies and gentlemen. About the price action, the price action supports that buys as well. We know that we right now we are in the final fifth inhale with the highest probability.

We have been already creating 1 2 3 4 and right now look at this, 1 2 3 4 and right now we are in the final fifth. We have been understanding the price action and with the highest probability henceforth we have assumed together that we might be creating an ending diagonal that is created by five subwaves, all of them are exhales.

So, right now with the highest probability we have finished the first one. Right now we are creating the secondary one. You know that my major target, final target would be at that 79,000. I will not explain why again because I've been explaining that already, but the first important resistance zone is 69 to 71,000.

Maximum for me is 79,000 which would nicely align with the domino effect we are watching. All right. And afterwards, so either from here or from here we will complete that's why we are also watching the price action, right? Because we understand that this is going to be with the highest probability a zigzag ABC.

A is made out of five smaller breaths, B three three or variations of thereof and C then also five. So, we are watching the price action on the lower timeframe because of exactly this, right? So, with the highest probability however, I think like we might extend to towards the 79,000, but I will be very careful already right here.

So, it might be something like 1 2 3, yeah? And then we will create the third wave, then the fourth wave, and then the final fifth wave that might take us towards that 44,000 with the highest probability. Then we will create a leading diagonal which is this kind of structure of an inhale but very small one which would nicely like, confluence with the kind of idea that we are having that we

need to spend some time right here to really put a lot of pressure and to be able to reaccumulate the Bitcoin back. And then we will start pushing to the upside and then we will be able to start riding towards the next new all-time high, which you know I'm watching for to be $169,000, right?

So, right now from the 4-hour time frame perspective, we might be creating the third wave, right? The third breath. So, we have created inhale, exhale, that finished beautifully right here. And right now we might be creating the third wave. I want to see at least, like, two 4-hour candle closures above this previous high, which will increase the probabilities much more significantly for me.

Again, you know that in Barry 1000 VIP we are sharing with you our personal trade setups with exact entries and exit targets. So, you know exactly how we are manipulating with our money in this market situation. One, two. Ladies and gentlemen, right now we might be getting the third wave.

One, two, three, four, and final fifth. Then we will have with that probably the fourth wave, then the higher degree fifth wave, and then we might be doing the secondary wave, and we might be already starting the impulse of that A wave, right?

So, about the price action, we will go deeply into that on Tuesday. We will be watching into that lower time frames and I will be explaining to you the subwaves of the current price section. Let me just show you right here the kind of channeling so you can understand where the resistance for the third wave might be at this moment.

So, if I place it right here, and if I place my Fibonacci retracement tool like, like so, but I will change it to to this, and I will place it like this, ladies and gentlemen. So, you can see we have a nice double confluence right here, triple actually because we are having also VPVR right here.

So, is this ascending trend line 1.272 Fibonacci retracement level cluster from the previous price action. That's That's fourth confluence. Only one time frame because we don't have time anymore, but you can see that very important first resistance is going to be at around $66,000.

Another one at $67,000. But about that later, ladies and gentlemen. So, watch out for this zone. All right. You see the confluence with the Depends on how fast the price action going to be. Might be like this, right? Henceforth, this is going to be important.

Might be slower. Henceforth, then this will be important. The next one, $67,000. So, watch out, ladies and gentlemen. Also, the price action is very important, which can help you to really time things better. So, watch out. ABC right here. If I count it right now, 1 2, right?

Three, as I've been saying, right? Then fourth, then final fifth. Might be like this. Then we will create the higher degree fourth, and then the final fifth wave. Watch out for that because afterwards there will be the big correction of that higher degree secondary wave.

But again, we don't have time anymore. We are already overtime. So, I will be explaining the price action development on the lower time frames. We'll be going deep into those wave structures, those breathing patterns because market is the breathing organism in the next video on Tuesday.

Until then, take care. Trade with a professional trading strategy. Focus on risk first, all right? And focus on protecting your capital. That's the most important stuff. And trade with a strategy because if you don't have a strategy, then your strategy is to fail.

So, I want you to be successful. Take care. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. And cheers until now. I'll see you on Tuesday. Cheers. >> Calm breath. Clear eyes. Work done. Now, right. No rush. No dread. >> [music] >> Right time for snack.

Clean setup. Clean click. >> [music] >> Execute like a pro. [singing] That's it. Clean setup.