In short: Simon stays bearish on the daily and weekly timeframes with a $44,000 target. But sees a short-term squeeze toward $82,000 as the easier path while the $76,000 support holds. Whales are buying, fear is near 20, and shorts are stacked above, so he avoids fresh shorts until confirmation.
Is Bitcoin squeezing up or crashing down next?
Track it live: our Crypto Fear and Greed Index updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
Short term, Simon says the path of least resistance is up toward $82,000. Bulls failed to turn the resistance zone into support, yet price is holding above the previous low while momentum builds. That gap hints at a possible bullish divergence and a reversal higher, not lower, for now.
The bigger picture stays bearish. Simon still reads the daily and weekly timeframes as pointing down. His map on the Bitcoin key levels page keeps $76,000 as the line that decides the next move.
Why does Simon expect a short squeeze toward $82,000?
The liquidation map shows a heavy imbalance. Simon notes over $2.2 billion in cumulative short liquidation leverage clustered around $82,000, versus $200-300 million of long liquidations near $70,000 to $71,000.
With more short positions in the market short term, closing them means buying contracts back, which pushes price up through each level. That domino effect on the crypto funding and positioning board is why he calls the upside the easier path right now.
What are the whales and the fear index doing?
Over the past 24 hours, Simon says the whales are buying more than selling, using the dip as liquidity to accumulate. On the 15-minute timeframe they hold more long positions, a shift from the last video where they were tactically selling the upside.
The fear and greed index sits near 20 on the one-hour chart. Confluenced with support, Simon treats that as a typical bottom-end signal, suggesting someone is absorbing the selling pressure.
Where is Simon’s invalidation and bigger target?
The key line is $76,000, the top of the first wave of the bullish structure. While that support holds, Simon counts a possible fifth wave that could extend toward $90,000 before a higher-degree reversal.
A clean reclaim of $76,000 to the downside, with follow-through and declining bullish volume on the retest, would flip his read. From there he sees a move toward $69,000, and on the weekly his long-held target of $44,000. His capital preservation approach keeps him mostly in USDT until confirmation.
Frequently asked questions
Why did Simon take profit and hold USDT?
The ParadiseTeam accumulated Bitcoin around $71,000 and $61,000, then sold near $79,000 for profit. Simon says they now hold mostly USDT and have already distributed strategically, because they expect a larger crash toward $44,000 until confirmations suggest a different move plays out.
What does the Trump Media Bitcoin move mean here?
Simon opens with Trump Media moving $343 million of Bitcoin to exchanges and asks if it signals preparation for a crash toward $44,000. He frames it as a probability to watch, not a certainty, and still leans on his own chart reads for the short-term direction.
Should you short Bitcoin right now according to Simon?
Simon says be careful. Price sits at support with a possible bullish divergence forming, so an over-leveraged short could get hunted. He personally would not short until more confirmation, such as a clean reclaim below $76,000 with follow-through volume, arrives first.
What price levels would confirm the bearish move?
A reclaim below $76,000, turning it from support into resistance, is Simon’s trigger. With follow-through volume and a declining-volume retest, he would treat it as a successful bearish reclaim. He would then wait for a confirmed first impulse before shorting a recovery.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Trump Media has just moved 343 million dollars off of Bitcoin to exchanges. Are they preparing for a major crash towards 44,000 dollars? Let's analyze the probabilities. Yello Ladies and Gentlemen, this is Simon from MyCryptoParadise. Welcome back, it's a great video. Today is Thursday and that means that you are watching the second video of this week.
So bulls tried to push and hold above this resistance. As you can see they were not successful The bullish volume was this high. The bearish volume was much higher So bears are still in control. The bulls were not able to sustain the price action above This resistance zone to turn it into support.
That is why I'm still having this zone red in a red color and I still treat it as a resistance let's take a look what's happening with the fear and greet index on the one hour time frame we are entering a fear mode okay so we are close to our number 20 as we know it's acting it's working differently the opposite way as the number 80 when we can confluence the number
80 with some important resistance right it tells us There is extreme greed in the market, retail is buying at resistance, if the price action is not following through, there is usually happening a distribution, right? The smart money are using retail as an exit liquidity.
And we were at number 80 right here when Bitcoin was at the local high around $81,000. Well, and then afterwards, we have started to slip towards number 20. Right now you can see on the lower time frame, we are entering, we are getting close to our support zone, okay?
So number 20, fear in the market, but Bitcoin is not following through so far, at least, and we are at support. Usually, this is working as a bottom -end signal. Is on the opposite side somebody who is absorbing that selling pressure right now Let's take a look at the whale tracker all right on our website micro two parties calm Well, and we can see that in the past 24 hours the whales
are kind of more buying than selling, right? So they are not the ones exactly that cost this price action trade outside they are using that as a liquidity to accumulate again right so in the last video we were looking at the whales and they were doing the opposite right so they were tactically selling into this price action 3 upside now we can see they are tactically it's nothing aggressive so so far
but they are using it as as a liquidity to buy on the 15 minutes time frame we can actually see that whales hold more long positions at this moment right so at this moment we can also see that the price action so far is not able to push below this low but the momentum on our on our indicator MACD right moving average convergence divergence we can clearly see that the momentum is
creating much bigger low than the previous one, right? So the momentum is there but the price action is not following. It's not confirmed yet but we might be forming a bullish divergence, right? So the momentum is there but the price action is not following.
That means that with the highest probability somebody is holding the price above the previous low, right? So even though there is a lot of sellers, a lot of momentum, the price action is not able to break below the previous low, the way the momentum is, so somebody is actually absorbing the selling pressure and we can right now see that the whales are doing it right, so if we take a look also
on the Bitcoin exchange liquidation map, we can see that there is quite a big imbalance right on the daily timeframe on the short term basically. So if you will start pushing towards $70 to $71,000 we will equate $200 -300 million worth of cumulative long liquidation average.
If you take a look at the other side right we have a huge cluster of liquidations right here at around $82,000. If you will go the similar direction to the upside we will equate over $2.2 billion cumulative short liquidation leverage so we can clearly see that right now at least from the short -term perspective there is more shorts right now in the market okay so the path of least resistance might be
to the upside there is the domino effect much more affected on the upside right because as we know if we look at the short position it automatically needs to it's gonna be close the way that it gonna buy the contracts back which will put a pressure on the price and it will help the price to push through to the next liquidation level right and given that right now there is more short
positions in the market from the short -term perspective at least the path of least resistance at this moment is going towards $82,000 it's going to be much more easier than pushing towards $70,000 yeah so it's not completely certain but the probabilities right now suggest so right so even though that the volume is kind of nice for bears right we can see a lot of participation is happening on this move to the
downside from the medium time frame this is definitely bearish from the daily time frame this is this is bearish as well from the weekly the time frame this is bearish as well but because we are also taking a look at the lower time frames the one hour time frame actually suggests that there might be like quick reversal recovery let's say recovery to the upside so as long as this support on the
one hour time frame can hold right and we don't break below this previous low we can push we can push higher ladies and gentlemen there is no reason why this couldn't happen so definitely if you're right now entering into some short position I would be careful yeah we are at support we can see that we might be forming it's not confirmed yet but we might be confirmed we might be forming a
bullish divergence so I would be careful with some overall average over leveraged short position because the overall very short positions might be hunted but as you know from the intro Trump Foundation is is selling Bitcoin. So what does it mean? Well, it means that traders, provisional traders, they are working with multiple trading strategies, right?
So, with Paradisemin VIPs, we also have original membership, gems membership, skill, a scalping membership. We are working with different trading tactics. So, even though you know that with Paradisemin VIPs, we have been, for Lastly, Accumulating Bitcoin at $71,000 and $61,000 and then we were selling at around $79,000 for profit and right now we are holding mostly in our heart wallets USDT again, right?
Because we are expecting a larger crash towards $44,000 until we have confirmations that there is going to be a probability of a different move. We are right now as well strategically already distributed our Bitcoin But this is position position trading strategy, right? That doesn't mean that we cannot We cannot catch some upside movements with our different trading Short -term trading tactics, right?
So even though still on the weekly time frame and on the daily time frame I'm bearish and I'm treating both of these time frames at least myself with bearish trading tactics that means that if I will get on some upside or recovery a bearish confirmation there is going to be much better for me not only from the risk alert perspective but also from the probability perspective idea of catching a short move
downside move right that doesn't mean that on the lower time frames we cannot play with bullish trading tactics and actually The for our time frame still until we can break below this support Which is at seventy six thousand dollars, which is the top of the first wave of our bullish structure That's still we are holding as you know from the previous video.
We are in a Possible Fifth wave right from the daily time frame perspective. We are creating the correct the final the final sea wave of our expanded flat ABC that subdivides itself into five smaller waves because it's an impulse right as you know from our MCP free University right here MCP free University as you know right here Elliott wave the final fifth wave of an impulse is a motive wave structure as
well right so expanded flat as you can see is right here we have three types of flat we have right now we are right now creating inside of that higher degree ending diagonal and expanded flat, right? And the C wave is a multi -wave structure, it means it subdivide itself into five smaller waves.
So one, two, three, four, five, right? There's still a high probability that we are completing right now the final fifth wave until we can break below that fourth hour wave which will be our invalidation, right? Which is also the top of the first wave.
So one two that been right here one two three four right now We still can be in the fourth wave and the final fifth wave that also subdivide itself into five small ways might stake us towards 90,000 dollars before the higher degree reversal right but from the daily time frame perspective You know that that really doesn't mean that I'm right now focusing on the bullish trading tactics given that the bigger move
is going to be in my opinion still to the downside not the upside and I always trying to be positioned for the black swans right so for me the bigger move is going to be from the daily timeframe perspective right now to the downside same way on the weekly timeframe there is going to be a bigger move in my opinion until I will see the invalidations that I have told you in
the previous video to the Downside, yeah, so that is why we are still holding mostly USDT with Paradis and Nubia Peace after we have taken the profit at $79,000. And we are on the weekly timeframe bearish since here, since $121,000. As you remember, we are expecting that five months to take us towards $44,000.
So the $44,000 is this kind of magical number for us for like multiple months. More than a year already, right? So still weekly time frame bearish for me daily time frame bearish as well for our time frame Let's see right now so we can see right here We have got the green dot right on our position in indicator So we have got a little bit of liquidation right here Then we have
push 3 upside there the short position started to went in right and then the short position Started to get closed and there are still close in right here and right now long positions are picking up Given that we are seeing the whales actually as a group be more buying than selling and the fear and greed index entering into that 20 level which is usually if you can confluence with some support and
VR right now at support as a bottom end signal right up on confirmations there is actually much higher probability that the price action will see a reversal. so okay you can see right here often swings back soon it's not a certainty but given that we are seeing the on the momentum indicators also the possibility of a bullish divergence there is quite a high chance that the price action can't swing back soon
all right and we can get that liquidations that might take us up to that 82,000 there is from the VP VR perspective you can see this will be a next resistance edition plan so right now short video today but the resolution is until we can reclaim this support $76,000 right so reclaim from below that would be a breakout we would follow through with this nice volume and then retesting this $76,000 with
declining volume declining bullish volume that would be a successful bearish reclaim and then we would be catching some bearish moves, at least me personally. So that would be a high probability for me. However, until we break below the support and turn it into a resistance, there is much higher probability that we might see a reversal.
From the short -term time frame perspective the price might be volatile, so be careful about that, but I would not be in a short position until some more confirmations yeah so next important resistance however if this support is gonna hold is going to be at that 82,000 there is as we have seen from the liquidation map that that's where the biggest cluster is actually finishing right around at 82,000 there's then afterwards
there is pretty much nothing so this is nicely conflouncing with the VP VR alright if we take a look at some important Fibonacci levels very close there is also 1.272 yeah so around eighty two eighty one thousand seven hundred to eighty two thousand five hundred dollars we can expect this to be a nice resistance if the price will start to recover which is right now with higher probability right until we can
reclaim this to the downside. If we will reclaim it, there is sniper's participation already, if we will get a confirmation I think the follow -through will be quite heavy and we will definitely see the lower time frame bullish in validation by breaking below the fourth wave and that would already mean that we have concluded the sea wave and we might start seeing already the big reversal to the downside right on that
time I would start I would just take a look I would I would not panic salt like not be we already solved but not panic short I mean not panic short into some over averaged short position I would see where it's gonna take us with the ice probability it would take us towards sixty nine thousand dollars yeah so I would I would wait for the confirmation of the first impulse wave and
then on the recovery on the secondary wave which sure if that would be a confirmed zigzag for example, I would then look for a nice short trading opportunity catch in the inclusive third wave, alright? So ladies and gentlemen I will keep you updated again, until then trade safe, focus on a professional trading strategy, because if you don't have a strategy, then your strategy is to fail, understand that even a bad trading
idea can make you a lot of money, even a good trading idea can lose you money, right? So what is important is to focus on your process, not on the outcome, focus on the long term, follow your process step by step, right? Don't marry single trade, don't worry what one trade's gonna do, worry about what's gonna happen after let's say 30 trades.
If your strategy is having a great edge and you're playing with a winning strategy after 30 trades, you will make a profit, right if after 30 or 40 trades you will make a loss you need to revisit your plan your strategy and back test it on more data and then start again right but a lot of people are marrying a single trade right and treating their trading strategy as a one -night
stand and it should be the opposite treat one trade without any emotions and to marry your strategy be loyal to your trading strategy and that's how you're gonna be long -term profitable. There is no other way. Ladies and gentlemen, short term is very random.
Don't focus on what's gonna happen with a single trade. Focus on your long -term process. Be like a businessman. Be like a professional poker player and if you will be treating it with this kind of mindset of having a capital preservation on a first place, right?
So you can survive the short term volatility. MyCryptoParadise is doing this since 2016 we are focusing on protecting our capital over making some quick buck right you will be able to survive the long run so focus on yourself focus on yourself as a risk manager not as a gambler all right survival is the most important thing in this market ladies and gentlemen thank you for watching and i will see you again
on saturday Cheers.
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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