In short: Simon says Bitcoin sits at key support near $78,000 to $79,000 while funding flips positive without price following. So longs look crowded and short term bearish. The medium time frame structure stays bullish toward $90,000 until price loses $79,000, which would open a path toward $44,000.
Is Bitcoin bullish or bearish right now?
Track it live: our live crypto funding rates updates in real time, so you can watch this shift for yourself.
Simon reads it as mixed. On the weekly and daily time frames he stays bearish, holding that stance since the failed push above $121,000. But the medium and lower time frame structure is still bullish until price loses $79,000.
Short term, positive funding with price going the other way makes him cautious. The ParadiseTeam treats that crowding of longs as bearish pressure, not a buy signal. You can follow his evolving map on the Bitcoin key levels page.
What is the key support level Simon is watching?
The line that matters is $78,000 to $79,000, which Simon calls the key final support. While price holds it, the bullish structure survives and a fifth wave toward $90,000 stays the higher probability path.
Losing $79,000 flips his read. A reclaim from below turns it into resistance and sets up an attack on the top of the first wave. Break that and the bullish Bitcoin structure is broken, pointing toward $44,000.
Why does positive funding look bearish here?
Funding is flipping positive on all major exchanges, yet price is not following to the upside. Simon reads that as crowded longs: the masses chasing after the move, not the smart money leading it.
He tempers it with open interest, which sits at a low from April. With few positions on the book, a long squeeze matters less than usual. The ParadiseTeam tracks this on the crypto funding board.
What are the upside targets if bulls hold?
Simon’s highest probability bullish path is a fifth wave carrying price toward $90,000 before a larger reversal. A reclaim of $99,000 would be needed to keep pushing toward a new all time high at $169,000, which he rates as the lowest likelihood.
He notes the market has not yet seen capitulation, so smart money has not had time to reaccumulate. That is why the $169,000 scenario ranks lowest for now.
How is Simon planning his next trade?
Simon wants confirmation before a long. He is waiting for a corrective wave structure down into support, then an impulse or leading diagonal up. So he can enter a high probability setup with a tight stop.
He stresses placing stops outside the noise zone, below the point of control, because thin liquidity lets market makers wick key levels. That focus on stop placement and sizing runs through every call on the video breakdown hub.
Frequently asked questions
What invalidates Simon’s bullish structure on Bitcoin?
Losing the $79,000 level is the invalidation. Simon says a break and reclaim from below turns $79,000 into resistance and puts an attack on the top of the first wave. Breaking that destroys the bullish Bitcoin structure and opens the bearish path toward $44,000 he watches.
Why doesn’t Simon weight the funding rates heavily this time?
Because open interest sits at a low from April, meaning few positions are in the market. Simon says the long squeeze probability exists but is created by not much positioning. So what funding is doing matters less and breaking the $78,000 to $79,000 support stays difficult.
What price targets did Simon mention in this video?
Simon flagged $90,000 as the higher probability fifth wave target, $99,000 as a reclaim level, and $169,000 as the lowest likelihood all time high path. On the downside he keeps $44,000 as his weekly bearish objective and $79,000 as the key support line.
Did the ParadiseTeam take a trade here?
Yes. Simon says the scalping team inside Paradise VIP set breaker limits and once price hit $81,350 they opened a short, now targeting $79,500 with the stop moved to break even. He failed to see $81,000 defended by spot buyers.
Why does Simon call this a slow fourth wave?
He describes the current action as a fourth wave, which is usually a prolonged consolidation. Simon ties the slowness to a weak global economy and near record low trading activity. So these ranges resolve slowly and stay volatile until clearer participation returns to the market.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Bitcoin funding crates are flipping positive on most major [music] exchanges without the price following to the upside. Longs [music] are being crowded and we are back at our important support. Is this bullish or bearish for the upcoming price action? [music] Let's analyze the probabilities.
[music] Hello ladies and gentlemen. This is Simon from my crypto paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is a Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. So, positive funding creates while the price action is doing the opposite of what the masses are doing while the longs are being crowded because of that that is bearish.
Right? Together with that, we also have seen in previous days that as the fear and greed index touched our number 20, right? We have seen some nice reaction from that lower time frame support. the price action went to the upside but the same way the sentiment did right so that's usually the problem of a continuation in that direction because the initial movements we want to see uh to be created by the
smart money right however when the masses start entering the dump money there is not enough participation left to keep on pushing the price action further all right so all of this was bearish and that's also why after we We have touched this moving average trend line on the 4hour time frame.
We have started to push below the important support from this perspective that was created at 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level which was the 81,000. Our sculping team inside of Paris VIP got a nice idea and created short trade with limit breaker. So we have set up those breaker limits.
Once the price action hit $81,350, we understood there will be very high probability, very high likelihood that it will continue in that direction. And right now we are taking target to at $79,500 and we have secured our position with stop-loss to [music] break even already.
Right now what's important is that from the medium time frame perspective, we are still bullish. The Bitcoin structure is still bullish until we break [music] and reclaim from below the $79,000 as we have already said in the previous video. However, if we will start breaking below the $79,000, that will basically tell us there is a very high probability that we will attack the top of the first wave and we will probably
go and break below it, which will destroy the bullish uh structure of Bitcoin and we will continue [music] further to the downside and we will start realizing the scenario that we are watching on the daily and weekly time frame which is bearish. As you know on the weekly time frame I'm having a bearish stance since basically I've created this price action development towards $44,000 like from the kind of time where we
were unsuccessful to break above $121,000 and I am still bearish all right on Bitcoin on the weekly time frame. I have not shift bullish since then and I still don't believe that this was a macro bottom and that is also the reason I'm still bearish on the weekly time frame.
We understand the seniors 60% probability that we will start getting rejected from this zone towards $44,000. As you know from the previous videos we already established this is the highest probability for Bitcoin right now. I'm taking this zone also as the 90,000 the rest because I will still I will explain to you why on the lower time frames we are still more bullish than bearish [music] until we can really have the
invalidation which is the break of that $79,000 until we lose that $79,000. So that 60% probability that the price action will look like that 30% probability that the fifth wave is going to be an extended one. we will push towards $99,000 and then start to get projected well and the lowest probability scenario as we have already established is uh the reclaim of that $99,000 and continuing towards the new alltime high $169,000.
We will be watching here what the smart money is doing this moment. We understand that from the net analyze profit and loss chart we have not yet went through the capitulation and [music] that is also the reason the smart money didn't have time to reaccumulate their bags back.
Right? So that is also why this is [music] the lowest likelihood scenario. Let's take a look on the daily time frame. I'm bearish there as well until we will have a clear invalidation. Early sign will be from the lower time frame breakage of that $79,000.
You know that we have on the daily time frame turned once bullish properly bullish at $61,000. That is also why we've pars we have reaccumulated some of our bitcoin. Then we have taken a profit at $79,000. Since then I'm still bearish on the daily time frame.
Even though there is a high probability that we can push towards that $90,000 before having the big reversal. So this is the highest probability scenario but from longerterm swing trading perspective which is the kind of trading style I'm doing on the daily time frame with the team.
First of all, we don't have confirmations at this moment to create a long position on this time frame and the probability is also not very good and the riskreward is not favorable for me. uh as well as we know right now still we are at almost all-time low of trading activity people are coming back to the markets right but it's not as aggressive as in other years so I do believe still
that the quarter 4 is going to get substantially better than the rest of the year like the year before that and people are coming back but it's not that aggressive so what we need to understand is we need to be prepared for volatility because the liquidity is not in the market that is Also the reason why market makers have very easy time to push price action below some important levels before actually
creating the big movement. Right? So they are able very easily to liquidate a lot of long positions even though the next big move is going to be actually to the upside. So we need to position our stop loss based on that. So we understand that it's not only about having bias on the market.
It's also about knowing where to place our stop losses and take profit targets outside of the noise zone. Right. So right now the noise can be like right here and then the big move [music] is going to happen. For a provisional trading is important that we place a stop loss the way that if the stop loss is hit the price action follows in that direction.
Right? Bad stop loss is that you get wicked out and then the price action moves in the direction you actually thought. So, so that is why the stop loss would need to be placed below the bottom of the fourth wave below the port of control from [music] the previous price action perspective which is also below the Fibonacci retracement levels that we have analyzed before right so as you can see the riskreward
is really really not favorable for me given that I would be targeting that $90,000 so bearish on the daily time frame we do have from the positioning indicator that procraers have already accessed two which is injected with machine learning and AI. We have an early sign that the smart money is already entering into long positions.
But we don't have the green dot. Right. Last time we have got the green dots was right here at the bottom. Then right here at a bottom at around that 60 $61,000 right here before the big move. Right now we have white dot but it's not still like all of that five out of five probability points.
That is why there is not enough confirmations. But we are watching that 24/7. And once we have enough confirmations, it will give us an early sign that from the 4hour time frame, it might be a great idea to actually take a look at some long position.
Right? So multi-time frame analysis very important because the more data you get, the better trading decisions you can make. So right here why we are not putting that much of importance to the funding crates is the open interest. As you can see, we are at low from April.
So not many positions in the market. That is why the funding crates what they are doing is not that important. Okay. So even though we have right now long squeeze probability you know what I mean right it's created by not that much of positions.
So yes we can continue a little bit further but breaking below this important the key final support that 78 to $79,000 will be very difficult for them. So me honestly I'm also interested in what's happening on the other side with the smart money which is the spot money right we have seen some kind of absorption they have tried to absorb the selling pressure and right now they are selling back they have
not been successful to defend that $81,000 right but until we can break below this low it's kind of good because the smart money are still in the position and we are right now at support let's take a look right now on the price action development.
So we understand that right now we are creating the hard degree fifth wave that might take us towards $90,000. It's still higher probability until we reclaim and lose that $79,000. Right? So that would be break below it which is possible. We still can have a Vshape reversal.
But what's a problem? What's going to be a problem is reclaim from below and turn it the $700,000 into a resistance. that will put an attack on the top of the first wave. And we already know that once we lose the top of the first wave, this bullish Bitcoin structure is broken and we will start looking uh even on the medium time frame for bearish trading setups and I will start playing
with bearish trading tactics on the medium time frame. So far, however, this is still likely to be a fourth trade which is usually a prolonged consolidation. Right now you understand the global economy is uh is bad and that is also the reason why this these fourth waves are so prolonged [music] and very volatile and very slow right.
So we need to understand that the fourth waves are very slow. There is not much trading activity that would be able to clearly very fast like resolve those consolidations. But until we can produce the invalidation levels, there is still much higher probability that the final fifth wave will take us towards $90,000 that we are still in the bullish structure and the fifth wave will happen before the larger degree reversal.
You will play with your bullish trading tactics in Paris VIP. We are playing with our trading tactics. We are diversificating risk between many traders. As you know since 2016, we are having this kind of hedge fund structure. So we are [music] exchanging different bullish trading tactics me personally for creating some high probability long position given that I understand the price action development I want to see market inhaling all right so I
want to see the inhale first wave structure five wave sub waves that will tell me the bulls are defending and they're like in control of that price action on the downside I want to see bears being not in a control being weak [music] that is why I will be waiting for corrective M mode wave structure a zigzag or variations of other corrective waves mode waves you understand that we have around nine
of them we have exactly nine of them actually right so one of these I will be watching on the downside if that's going to happen I will see impulse on the upside or a leading diagonal and corrective mode wave on the downside well we will hold this or this support that will be a high probability trade setup for me in an anticipation that I want I will be catching the next impulse
the third wave right I will not only be able to create a beautiful high probability long position with more probability points upon confirmations but also the risk reward will be very very nice because I will be able to place my [music] stop loss quite tight to my entry given that the invalidation will be quite quite low and the exit target I will be able to place very high so that's great for
a screw art right and then will be the fourth wave, it will increase the probability that we are in an impulse, right? So then will be the fourth wave and then the final fifth wave might take us towards that $90,000. So that's just my trading tactic.
That's what I'm right now waiting for. If I see that pattern and I will get enough confirmations, I will enter into that position. And if you are in Paris VIP, you will [music] know about that and about my targets and invalidation level and stop-loss.
So ladies and gentlemen, I will see you again. I hope this helped. I will see you again on Tuesday. Until then, take care, trade safe, trade with a professional trading strategy and I will see you again in the next video. Until then, take care.
Cheers. Calm [music] breath, clear eyes. Work done now. Right. No rush, no drag. [music] Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. [music] Execute like a pro. That's it. Clean set
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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