In short: Simon’s Saturday breakdown reads short-term bullish and long-term bearish. He sees higher odds of Bitcoin pushing toward $90,000 after the crash stalled at $81,000. Meanwhile, the weekly chart still points to a $55,000 to $44,000 exchange-of-hands zone before any lasting bottom forms.
Why is Simon short-term bullish on Bitcoin?
Simon is short-term bullish because the exact data he wanted finally showed up. After the crash stalled near $81,000, price pushed up around 3.8% and set a higher low. Open interest fell while spot buying climbed, so leverage was not driving this move.
When long positions closed, selling pressure should have dragged price down. Instead smart money absorbed it, visible on the spot cumulative volume delta. The funding rate board showed crowded longs cooling off as sentiment turned fearful.
Whales added to the divergence, buying 62% versus 38% selling over 24 hours. That is why Simon leans toward continuation rather than a fresh leg down.
Why is Simon still long-term bearish?
On the weekly time frame Simon stays bearish. His net earned profit and loss chart has not yet dropped below the zero capitulation line, the signal that marked every macro bottom since 2011.
Until forced sellers capitulate and smart money reaccumulates, he sees low odds of a clean move higher. He expects price to eventually revisit the exchange-of-hands zone he has tracked since around $121,000.
Simon notes Paradise took profit near $61,000 and $71,000 and still holds mostly USDT, waiting for better prices. You can follow his ongoing read on the Bitcoin analysis hub.
What Bitcoin levels does Simon watch now?
Simon maps clear levels in this video. Support sits at $81,500 and the crash low near $81,000, with the deeper exchange-of-hands zone at $55,000 down to $44,000.
To the upside he watches the $83,400 prior high, then $90,000, then $99,000. A reclaim of $99,000 as support could open the door toward a possible $169,000 high.
He stresses patience over prediction, keeping stops and position size disciplined. His notes on position sizing and capital preservation echo why he is not forcing trades here.
What does the Bitcoin miner selling mean?
The trigger was a Bitcoin miner. A few hours before recording, Mara sold 996 bitcoins worth around $81 million, raising fear of a slide toward $44,000.
Simon’s take: it is not enough yet. One miner selling did not push his capitulation chart below zero, so the full exchange of hands has not happened. He expects more pressure before any durable macro bottom forms.
Frequently asked questions
Where did the Bitcoin crash stop according to Simon?
Simon says the crash stalled at the 1.619 Fibonacci retracement level near $81,000. From there price pushed up about 3.8% and set a higher low. He treats $81,000 and the $81,500 Fibonacci level as the key short-term support he wants Bitcoin to hold.
What is Simon’s short-term Bitcoin target?
On the lower and daily time frames Simon sees higher probability of Bitcoin pushing toward $90,000. If price reclaims $99,000 as support, he says the door could open toward a possible new all-time high near $169,000, though he rates that outcome very low probability.
What is the exchange-of-hands zone?
It is the reaccumulation area where Simon expects smart money to absorb heavy selling. In 2022 it sat between $24,000 and $16,000. In this cycle he believes it lands around $55,000 to $44,000, which is why his weekly bias stays bearish for now.
How much Bitcoin did Mara sell?
Simon opens the video noting Mara sold 996 bitcoins worth around $81 million just hours before recording. He argues one miner selloff is not enough to force capitulation, since his net earned profit and loss chart has not yet dropped below its zero baseline.
What are whales doing right now?
Simon points to a clear divergence. Over the past 24 hours whales were roughly 62% buying versus 38% selling, while the crowd offloaded long positions. That smart money absorption on the spot cumulative volume delta is a main reason he leans short-term bullish.
MyCryptoParadise has run a professional crypto signals and trading-education service since 2016, led by founder Simon Mach and the ParadiseTeam. Simon records these sessions three times a week, and every episode lands on the Bitcoin video analysis hub.
Video transcript
Auto-captioned from the video audio and lightly cleaned, so it can contain transcription errors; the video itself is the record. It is speech, not a written article; for the structured breakdown read the sections above.
Another Bitcoin mining company is selling. Just a few hours ago, Mara sold 996 bitcoins worth around $81 million. [music] So, does this mean minor competitation is only beginning and Bitcoin could be heading towards $44,000? Let's analyze the probabilities. [music] [music] [singing] Hello ladies and gentlemen, Barasa.
This is Son from My Crypto Paradise. Welcome back. It's great to be here. Today is Saturday and that means that you're watching the last video of this week. So in this video I want to tell you what is the reason that I do believe that from the shortened time frame perspective we have a much higher probability of pushing towards $90,000 after we have stopped this crash at 1.69 61 Fibonacci retracement level
at that $81,000 and then very quickly I will repeat to you what is the reason that I do believe that on the weekly time frame perspective there is much higher probability that we will push towards that $44,000 in this exchange of the hands zone right which is similar to the one that we have had back in 2022 right here so first of all what is the reason that I'm bullish on the
lower time frames So it is the reason that I've actually explained to you in the previous video. I've told you in the previous video that I want to see something in order for me to then say okay we can continue. So during the price action to the upside I have told you I want this price action to the upside be created by a specific data.
Right? So what data we are watching right now is exactly the thing that I wanted to see in order for me to with the highest probability be able to say that we can continue to push to the upside. All right. There are higher odds of continuing higher than having this really just as a corrective mode wave before continuing to the downside which is right now lower probability and I will tell you
why and we will use few data. We will confluence those data and then we will put everything in context. Okay. So we will take a look at the price action. This is price action. This is open interest. That basically means how many positions are in the market right now.
The positions that are using leverage. All right. So open interest aka we can also understand it as what the majority of the people are doing. Okay aka dump money. Then we have CVD cumulative volume delta but we are excluding leverage. We are excluding futures.
So we are focusing on the cumulative volume delta only what the spot is doing aka what the smart money are doing. Okay. But this is not enough. We need to also take a look what is happening with the sentiment. All right. Aka what the majority of the people how the majority are people are feeling.
Okay. Aka what how the dump money are feeling. And then we can take a look what the whales are doing aka the smart money. Okay. And then we also need to see and take a look what is happening with the funding crates aka what the majority of people are actually doing.
Okay. So let's put it right now into context. So the price action pushed higher right we have pushed from that $81,000 by around 3.8%. So bullish move. All right. So we have created higher low. Let's take it from here from looking at the open interest.
So price action created higher low but open interest created lower low. So some positions started to get closed right. Were those positions longs or shorts? Well, because we were in the previous video looking at the funding crates, we have understood the longs are crowded, right?
On Bitcoin right here, we have not seen negative, right? We have seen a lot of warm colors, right? That means more long positions. The long positions were crowded basically. Okay. Right now we can see that the colors are getting colder, right? We are going to more neutral to cold colder colors.
That means that who actually offloaded are the long positions. They were either forced to actually close or because they started to feel bearish. They started to feel fearful as we can see on the fear and greed index. They started to believe all right let's exit the long position.
This has no future for me continuing to be a bull. I think right now prices will go lower. So long positions were offloading. That's why open interest went down. So what positions were getting closed? Long positions. We now understand. Okay. So how is it possible that if the long positions were closing, how is it possible the market didn't continue to go down?
Because when you close a long position, you need to sell the contracts back, right? So you hold long, then you sell the contracts back. If you close it or get liquidated that puts a pressure on the price and naturally it should push the price lower.
So there shouldn't be any divergence but there is. So how is that possible? Well somebody absorbed that selling pressure right? So the dump money left the long positions, left the belief that there is going to be higher prices, right? Which they believed right here mostly in this section back in around $86 to $84,000.
They believe the prices will continue to go to go higher. And I'm not saying it's a good or bad idea. It was like even professional traders might have some great tactic to go into long position. But you understand this kind of thing that even on a good trade you can lose money even on a bad trade you can win money right it doesn't happen anywhere else in no other endeavor it happens
right if you are being for example a doctor that operates brain right there is no way that without any knowledge without any expertise you would be able to operate the brain successfully just by pure luck right but in trading And in gambling as well, even without any expertise, without any system, without any strategy, you have still 50/50 chance that the market will move in your direction, right?
So even without any expertise, without any skills, without any experience, even if you have no system and your trade is bad, you can make a lot of money. And that's what's usually very bad for a lot of people that start trading for first time.
They create their trade based on some technical analysis they have seen in some book and they believe like oh wow that's that's very easy let me continue to do it this way and they don't understand that they are actually trading without any strategy and against the odds and [clears throat] they were just lucky before and sooner or later like you can be profitable for a few months even like a year with
no strategy at all but then another market cycle hits right and the market shows you who is the king and the market always is. So that is why you we need to approach the market with a disciplined strategy. So even a bad trade can make money.
This is very key understanding even a good trade can lose money. That is why risk management is important for long-term profitability. So you can slow the process down enough for the probabilities to be able to play out. Right? So it doesn't matter like why there were the long positions but right now they are not there anymore.
All right. So the long positions got closed and the price action should push down. Right? So there should not be no divergence but there is. Why? Because somebody absorbed that selling pressure. Right? So we understand the dump money were in like majority of those positions were dump money.
They are no longer in a long position. Somebody else absorbed that selling pressure and that was the smart money. We can clearly see it on the cumulative volume delta, right? The CVD spot has no divergence with the price action. We can actually see that the CVD spot aggressively accumulated and absorbed all of that selling pressure from that offloading of that long positions.
Yeah. So we can see a huge increasement in buying pressure in this on the CVD and actually what I like very much also seeing right now that on the price action right here on the ultra low time frame we can see a lower high but the CVD right here is having higher high.
Okay. So first of all higher low on the price action and higher low on the CVD as well. So we can see smart money spot is actually pushing the price up which is not visible usually during a corrective mode wave. If this would be just a corrective mode wave where after it's done the trend would continue in the previous direction which is bearish right spot money and futures would be involved right
so usually during fifth waves during fifth waves the final fifth waves of some cycles we see a lot of leverage right so we have basically an impulse and during the final fifth waves we see a lot of leverage people are being very greedy And the smart money and spot is actually decreasing and is actually selling.
Right? Right now we are seeing the opposite futures and leverage is not really involved in this move but smart money hour which is increasing the probability that this is indeed a first wave of our motive wave structure that can take us up to that $90,000.
So if we are right now in that final fifth wave right so we have finished the fourth wave right here. is right now very high probability that this was the WXYXXZ aka double3 formation which is a corrective mode wave formation as you know from our MCP3 university right double three right here which is usually a sideways correction that is visible at fourth waves there's a higher probability right now that we are
about to have the final fifth wave in the previous direction and on the 4hour time frame the previous trend was bullish right so there is higher probability that we will have right continuation just by watching how this possible first wave is being created.
Right? And we will come back to the whales in a minute. But let me explain to you why do I believe that this is a first wave? Because I have taken a look at the price action on the subwaves. So this was first, second, third, fourth ABC and then fifth one two three then a skew triangle final fifth.
Right? Then we will be talking about if this is already a zigzag of the secondary wave and why there's actually very high probability around 60 to 70% that we might go lower and still I would not be bearish. If we will push towards the 0.618 branch retracement which is at around $81,500 I will still not get bearish because I understand the secondary waves are usually deep corrections and given that this might
have been already the zigzag. Actually it is because of the sub waves that have been calculating even on a lower time frame. We understand that the secondary waves are deep corrections. So that means that they retrace at least 50% of the previous wave.
Previous wave was around 4%. So that means that the secondary wave should be 81,700. Well, because it is confluencing nicely with the 0.61 Fibbranch retracement level. We understand $81,500 would be the perfect support for the secondary wave. Right. So this is so far a shallow correction.
And what is happening when we are having a shallow correction when the zigzag cannot do the deep correction? Well, the double zigzag come in place, right? So, there is right now still a probability until we can break above the previous high $83,400 that it was just an X-wave.
Then this is a connecting wave of the double zigzag and then a next zigzag will come that will complete the deep correction. And if you will be doing this, if you're in a long position, I would right now not be pushing stop loss to break even.
And also if if we will start seeing the bearish price action, I would not get scared because I understand that this would be normally healthy as long as we can hold this support and this could be just the part of the secondary wave and the next wave would be much higher.
So right now this actually this price action has actually the highest probability one. The lower probability one is that this was enough the zigzag and right now we are creating already a first wave. However, if we are, I want to see this first wave to push above the previous high of the fifth wave.
Then on the secondary wave, that would be another bullish trading tactic opportunity. Okay? And then there would be high probability that we can continue higher. So this comes like with let's say 20% probability. So like this to the downside that's 70%, pushing above it like this exact was already enough that's around 20%.
Well, and the least probable scenario, ladies and gentlemen, the least probable scenario is that we will push down. We will reclaim this from below the support into resistance. We will turn it into resistance and this would provide us with some bearish trade in tactic opportunity and we will continue to go lower lowest probability right now.
Okay, lowest probability right now. And let's also take a look at the smart money. So not only we we can confirm it on the CVD spot but we can also see that the whales are actually having divergence with what the dump money are doing right.
So whales are mostly buying 62% buying 62% buying in the past 24 hours versus 38% selling we can see clear divergence from the funding crates right from the majority. So we can see right now majority of people they actually not only offloaded their long positions but right now because we have went kind of into some cold colors for example on HTX and also on buy bit right and on Binance as well
we can actually assume that there are quite some short positions in the market right now. So short probability is going to start increasing. All right, you will see that if you're watching the funding craze, there is right now high probability of that. Also on the funding history, we can see we are at the baseline of zero.
Usually this is working as a bottom in signal the same way the plus 10 in the past 90 days worked as a top- in signal. Right? So a lot of confluences dump money versus a smart money. That's the confluences. Smart money are right now pushing up this price action.
It's not being done by the dump money. So that is increasing the probability there is going to be the continuation. Right? So right now ladies and gentlemen let's let's also take a look on the weekly time frame. Why am I still bearish on there?
So from the shortened time frame perspective I am bullish. All right. There is right now much higher probability that we will continue to push towards that $90,000. On the daily time frame also I am more bullish. There's much higher probability that we will start pushing towards that $90,000.
And however on the weaker time frames still I am bearish and even though that the Bitcoin miners we have seen in the intro that another Bitcoin mining company is selling Bitcoin it's not enough. All right, it's not enough because we can see on our net earned profit and loss chart that we are still not yet below the baseline zero line of capitulation.
And every single time since 2011, we went below the baseline. That means this bad risk managers, these institutions and Bitcoin mining companies that were not able to manage their risk well, they were forced to sell, right? and they started to capitulate, sell their Bitcoin in a loss.
That what pushed this chart below the baseline, below the zero. And on the other side, we saw that somebody else is actually absorbing the selling pressure. That is the smart money. The price action slowed down, right? So heavy selling from one side, absorbing of the selling pressure from another side.
That's why the price action slowed down. We have created a macro bottom and then we could have continued to go to the upside every single time since 2011. This is how we have created the macro bottoms and right now in this bare market we can see that we have not yet went below the zero capitulation line.
So even though the bitcoin mining company another one is a selling it's not enough it wasn't enough to push the net earned profit and loss chart below the level zero baseline. So there wasn't possibility as we have created for the smart money to reaccumulate it nicely right here back in 2022.
It was the zone $24,000 and $16,000 the exchange of the hand zone. I do believe that in this bare market it's going to be at around $55 to $44,000. That will be the exchange of hands zone. You know that we are waiting for it already since around $121,000.
We are not yet have completed this exchange of the hand zone. So the probability that we can just continue to push to the upside without the smart money being actually reaccumulated is very low probability. That is also why with paradise on the VIPs, we are still waiting for a better prices to reaccumulate and we have been actually taking profit as you already know for the reaccumulation that we have done at $61
and $71,000. Uh but most of the bitcoins we have distributed back in 2025 as you know at around 109 and below $121,000 and we are still holding mostly USDT, right? So highest probability scenario that we will push to the downside from around that from the current prices or $90,000 right lower probability but still quite high that we will push first towards $99,000 and then towards the reaccumulation zone the exchange of the
end zone and extremely low probability but still possible. We need to as a professional traders be prepared for everything is that we will reclaim the resistance $99,000 into support and we will be able to continue grinding higher towards the new alltime high at possible $169,000 level.
If that's going to happen, we will take a look what the whales are doing. If they are the smart money reaccumulating right here, we will follow the whales and we will just ride the wave with them. It is right now very low probability.
However, but anything can happen. Ladies and gentlemen, [snorts] this is everything from me right now. Short-term bullish, you understand why. Long-term still bearish. You understand why. Uh I will update the market for you again on Tuesday because I'm recording for you every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday.
So until then, enjoy the rest of your weekend. Trade safe so I can see you here on Tuesday again so you can survive the volatility, the weekend's volatility. Focus on your process, not the outcome. And I will see you safely again on Tuesday.
Cheers. Calm, [music] clear eyes. Work done now. Right. No rush, no drag. [music] Right time, full snap. Clean set up. Clean click. Execute like a pro. That's it. [music] M clean set
Educational content, not financial advice. Crypto trading carries substantial risk; you can lose your capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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